PREDICTIONS: 2024 Penn Relays (NCAA Individual Events)

Predictions & analysis by Maura Beattie

The Penn Relays are, without question, one of the most historic track and field meets in the history of our sport. And with that history comes decades of prestige, giving an added emphasis to this weekend that most regular season meets can't emulate.

This year's Penn Relays is set to be plenty entertaining and we'll be sure to preview the relay events soon. But for now, we wanted to offer our individual predictions for what should be a very entertaining extended weekend of action.

Here's who we picked to emerge as the top NCAA individual distance talents in the "City of Brotherly Love" this weekend...

*Denotes that a collegian is also entered in another individual event. In these predictions, TSR is assuming that each runner is contesting an event fresh (i.e. not doubling back).

Analysis: There is seemingly no clear favorite to take home the win in the men’s 1500-meter field at the Penn Relays this weekend. However, Stony Brook’s Collin Gilstrap has been very solid in this event, ripping off a handful of recent PRs and building dangerous momentum. There are multiple signs suggesting that he is ready for a statement performance. Even so, the rest of the men in this field are plenty strong. Devon Comber also has great momentum and a few veterans aren't going to be easy to shake. But the name who we are most curious about is Texas A&M’s Victor Kibiego. The steeplechase star is bound to improve upon his current PR of 3:44 (1500) following a very encouraging steeple/5k weekend double at the Bryan Clay Invitational a few weeks ago.

Analysis: The women's 1500 meters is likely going to be a close battle as multiple women in this field are itching to reach the next tier of their fitness. Rider's Teagan Schein-Becker is debatably the favorite given her middle distance accolades and history of success. However, she will have to battle a fast-rising talent in Florence Caron (Penn State), a veteran in Alex Carlson (Rutgers) who is beginning to return to top form and 10k ace Grace Hartman (NC State) who seems to be on a tear right now. Schein-Becker has greater foot-speed than her competitors, but Caron, Carlson and Hartman have strength on their side. 

Analysis: Daelen Ackley of Notre Dame has been flying under the radar this season following his 3:40 (1500) and 13:52 (5k) personal bests in his last two races. If Ackley can maintain this consistency and momentum, then a new PR in the 5k is more than possible this weekend, especially when you consider the fact that many of his competitors are of a similar talent level. Of course, key names like Toby Gualter of NC State and Micah Wilson of Wisconsin could give Ackley a run for his money if the two long distance specialists can capitalize on their strength-based running style.

Analysis: This race is (probably) going to come down to a three-woman battle between Northwestern’s Ava Earl and Washington’s duo of Julia David-Smith and Haley Herberg. Even though Herberg has the fastest 5k PR of 15:31, it has been Earl who has been on a roll this academic year. She has the potential to take down this field if she remains confident over the course of the 12.5 laps.

Analysis: After opening his season last weekend at the Wake Forest Invitational over 5000 meters, Tennessee’s Yaseen Abdalla is doubling the distance at the Penn Relays. Don’t expect Abdalla to improve upon his 28:33 (10k) PR, but he should come within reach of it if he’s pushed by Notre Dame’s Josh Methner and Vincent Mauri. The former had a tough 10k season debut back in March, running 29:10, but when the Notre Dame junior brings his "A" game, he's a fringe national qualifier. Methner’s teammate, Vinny Mauri, hasn’t competed since the ACC Indoor Championships, but since transferring to Notre Dame from Arizona State, he’s made clear improvements in his times, ripping off multiple personal bests during the winter months.

Analysis: It will be interesting to see what NC State’s Kelsey Chmiel does in the 10k at the Penn Relays...that is, assuming she even races this weekend. The Wolfpack veteran hasn’t competed since suffering an injury following the ACC XC Championships, making her a massive wildcard. But if Chmiel is back to her winning ways, then a regional qualifying time is in the cards. Like Chmiel, Georgetown’s Maggie Donahue will be making her season debut and if she’s firing on all cylinders after a racing hiatus, then don’t be surprised to see her finish in 2nd place.

Analysis: Virginia’s Yasin Sado and Providence’s Patrick Thygesen might be the top-two men in this race given their experience and consistently great times. However, there is a dark horse in this field looking to make a statement. Alexander Korczynski of Northeastern has a steeplechase PR of 8:39, but has the chance to inch closer to the 8:35 mark if he rebounds from his Raleigh Relays steeplechase season debut. 

Analysis: NC State freshman Angelina Napoleon was solid last weekend, running 10:07 in her second-ever collegiate steeplechase. As Napoleon continues to gain experience in the event, a sub-10:00 steeplechase mark is possible this weekend. Of course, Georgia Tech's Helena Lindsay will be the closest competitor for Napoleon and could dip under the 10:00 mark for the second time in her steeplechase career. Keep an eye out for Penn State’s Faith DeMars in the second heat. She’s just getting started in the steeplechase and could land herself in the top-five this weekend. Yes, Emily Cole is, on paper, the focal favorite of this race, but her last two races have left us wanting so much more. She is a bit of wild card in our eyes.