PREDICTIONS: 2024 Penn Relays (High School)

Predictions & analysis by Donny Speas

Every year, during the last weekend in April, the track and field world shifts their attention to a colosseum-like track and field stadium located in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. There, spectators and fans alike are able to watch some of the best relays in the world compete as well as a handful of talented individuals, specifically at the high school and college levels.

This year, there are several top-quality fields among the nation's top prep talents, highlighted by several national powerhouse schools facing off in the relay events and a very deep field in the girl's mile.

Alright, that's enough of an introduction for me, let's check out our predictions!

Analysis: At first glance, the girl's mile looks like the most competitive high school distance event at the 2024 Penn Relays, headlined by a handful of east coast runners coming in with strong personal bests.

Olivia Cieslak is fresh off of an incredibly fast mark of 2:04 over 800 meters which makes it hard to pick against her in this field. On paper, her middle distance fitness is formidable. However, one of her biggest potential challengers is Katherine Bohlke who has run 4:49 for the mile and 6:37 for the 2000-meter steeplechase this season, the latter mark being the fastest time in the country for that event.

McElhinney in particular looks like a very strong contender for the win. She hasn't competed at all during this outdoor track season, but the last time that we saw her compete, she pulled off an incredible double victory in the mile and 800 meters at Nike Indoor Nationals.

Analysis: This is Drew Griffith's race to lose. After running 4:00 for the mile last weekend, I don't think that there's an athlete east of the Mississippi who is capable of taking down this Pennsylvania ace.

Looking behind Griffith, there's a slew of talented athletes, headlined by fellow Pennsylvania native, Ryan Pajak. The Foot Locker XC National Championship runner-up finisher has had a quietly great season, running 8:38 for 3200 meters to take 4th place at the Arcadia Invitational earlier this month.

Although Pajak is not typically known for his mile prowess, I do think it's a pretty solid bet that we see Pajak dip under the 4:10 barrier for the first time this weekend. The only question is...by how much? In fact, that's largely the question that we have for a handful of other aerobic-centric distance athletes in this field.

Analysis: I think Cathy Schiro's meet record of 9:15 (3k) should be on high alert. We know Addison Ritzenhein is extremely aerobically strong and after running 4:42 for the mile at Arcadia, we know that her foot-speed won't be holding her back in any record attempts.

Another runner who I think could challenge the 9:20 barrier is Pennsylvania native, Logan John St. Kletter. The North Carolina commit had a strong winter campaign, so much so that there were times when it seemed like St. John Kletter was the best runner in the country.

The final runner who I want to highlight is Zariel Macchia, the USA U20 cross country champion. She certainly looks capable of resetting her 9:25 (3k) PR from this past indoor track season and could certainly contend for the win.

Analysis: When looking at the personal bests of these athletes on paper, you would think that Ty Steorts should win this race fairly easily. However, Steorts' most recent led to him running a more modest mark of 4:25 (1600). That, in turn, makes me think that Friday night's race is more wide-open than one would initially expect.

If there's going to be an upset (and I'm not necessarily saying that there will be), then it will be Georgetown commit Quinn Parrish who ran a great 3200-meter time of 8:58 at the Arcadia Invitational. Additionally, keep an eye on Ryan Sykes, one of the top long distance freshmen in the country. He looks poised to be an important name to remember over the next couple of years.

Analysis: The girl's 4x800-meter relay has a lot of legitimate contenders for this year's Penn Relays title. Union Catholic, Niwot and Padua all have a strong case for why they should be considered the favorite this Friday.

Many of Union Catholic's athletes haven't had quite the season that they may have hoped for (so far). But as a team, they always put it together, most recently winning the 4x800-meter relay title at the Arcadia Invitational in a blazing time of 8:53.

Niwot is a school that isn't typically known for its prowess over 800 meters, but with all of the talent that they have on their roster (highlighted by Addison Ritzenhein, the top individual athlete in this race), it's hard to imagine the Cougars not contending for the win.

Finally, we get to the Padua Pandas, a team that holds hold the top 4x800-meter relay time in 2024 thanks to their win at the 2024 Millrose Games. There, they took down the previously mentioned Union Catholic girls.

Analysis: Unlike most of the events at Penn Relays, the boy's 4x800-meter relay has no clear favorite for the win. So far during the 2024 track season (both indoor track and outdoor track), seven different team in this field have run under 7:50 in this event with the fastest coming from the St. John's College Cadets at 7:46.83.

Luckily for us, many of these competitive programs have had the opportunity to race each other relatively recently. And as you may have guessed, St. John's College has the best resume of the bunch thanks to their runner-up finish at New Balance Indoor Nationals.

One school that hasn't yet broken 7:50, but could surprise some people, is Union Catholic with the talented Virginia commit, Jimmy Wischusen, on the anchor leg.

Girl's DMR

Analysis: The girl's DMR looks to be headlined by a matchup between two perennial powerhouse programs in Tatnall and Saratoga Springs.

On one side, Tatnall is coming off of a national title in the 4xMile relay this past winter. Not only that, but they have two athletes who have run 2:10 for 800 meters this season (and five under 2:20).

On the other side, you've got Saratoga Springs who has the best individual athlete (and presumed anchor) in this field. That runner, of course, is 4:46 miler and Providence commit, Emily Bush. While there's a handful of other strong squads in this race, I'd be shocked if anyone other than the Hornets or Blue Streaks takes the win on Friday night.

Boy's DMR

Analysis: The boy's DMR looks super competitive and I think it's the most compelling relay on the boy's side with three strong contenders for the title. The programs I'm referring to are the Ridgefield Tigers, the Westfield Blue Devils and the Christian Brothers Academy Colts.

Christian Brothers Academy has arguably the best individual runner in this field, Joe Barrett, who is fresh off of an outstanding 8:43 (3200) PR at the Arcadia Invitational. However, I'm leaning towards picking Ridgefield for the win.

The Tigers have much stronger options for their 800-meter and 400-meter legs. Plus, their presumed anchor leg, Steven Hergenrother, has proven that he's nearly unbeatable when he gets the baton (running 4:01 and 4:04 in his last DMR outings). Most importantly, Ridgefield has won two national titles in this event during the last year, including at this year's 2024 New Balance Indoor Nationals.

Go ahead...can you guess the team that finished runner-up at New Balance Nationals? If you guessed the Westfield Blue Devils, then you'd be correct. The Blue Devils were a mere 0.79 seconds away from a national title. This race certainly looks like it's the most competitive race of any relay at this year's rendition of Penn Relays.