PREDICTIONS: 2024 Arcadia Invitational

Predictions & Analysis via Donny Speas

Admittedly, the outdoor track regular season at the high school level doesn't have as many high-stakes meets as one would like. However, there is one meet in particular that consistently attracts the top runners from across the country and often showcases some absolutely thrilling results.

I am, of course, talking about the Arcadia Invitational.

Last year, we saw a slew of fast times, especially in the boy's 3200-meter race where we saw the trio of Simeon Birnbaum, Danny Simmons and Rocky Hansen run 8:34. While Birnbaum and Hansen have ventured to the NCAA ranks, Simmons is back for his senior year and headlining this year's Arcadia Invitational.

However, loaded 3200-meter races aren't all that Arcadia has in store for us! Read down below for the rest of our predictions...

Girl's 800 Meters:

Analysis: Those of you who are familiar with our top-50 recruit rankings know that we are big fans of Ali Ince, our top-ranked recruit. And frankly, I don't think there's an athlete in this race who can take down the three-time Brooks PR champion as she goes for her second Arcadia 800-meter title. Of course, the race for 2nd should be plenty entertaining. UCLA-commit Georgia Jeanneret just had a fantastic race a few weeks ago and BYU-commit Tessa Buswell is seemingly due to reset her 2:08 (800) PR.

Boy's 800 Meters:

Analysis: Patrick Hilby was the man to beat this past indoor track season, taking the New Balance Indoor Nationals title over 800 meters, running 1:48. And to be frank, I don't see a reason why putting Hilby on the outdoor oval would make him any slower. However, Xai Ricks has proven before that he has enough raw talent to compete for the win. He did, after all, defeat Aaron Sahlman around a similar time last year in 1:49. Keep an eye on Noah Nielson as well. I'm expecting him to run on American Fork's 4xMile relay on Friday night, but if for some reason he doesn't, then don't be shocked if he grabs a top-three finish.

Girl's Mile:

Analysis: Sadie Engelhardt has already run 4:09 for 1500 meters and 2:03 for 800 meters this season. She also won New Balance Indoor Nationals over the mile distance and just for good measure, she is the defending champion in this event. She's the clear and obvious favorite, but it's not like she'll be completely alone for this entire race, either. One other important name to watch is Timpview's Jane Hedengren, a Utah native who is coming off of a strong winter campaign. She typically finds a way to make these types of races competitive and could be even more of a threat now that she has found some aerobic-centric success to pair with her elite 4:35 mile PR.

Boy's Mile:

Analysis: The Boy's mile is the one event where I don't see a true favorite, so I'm betting big on experience. Jimmy Wischusen had a great fall cross country season that saw him finish 7th at NXN, followed by a more modest indoor track season where he still managed to shave a few seconds off of his best indoor track times. One other storyline I'll be paying attention to is how well the Utah athletes coming down in elevation fare. I wouldn't be surprised if one of them (Herriman's William Steadman, in particular) pulls off an upset.

Girl's 3200 Meters:

Analysis: The Arcadia Invitational has become THE place to run a fast 3200-meter time and this year's lineup looks incredible. It's hard to pick against defending NXN champion, Addison Ritzenhein, especially after seeing her run 4:44 (1600) at 5000 feet. I also can't help but feel that Oregon native Emily Wisniewski is a bit underrated right now. Her 10:19/16:23 (3200/5k) double at Nike Indoor Nationals was super impressive and it should translate to the outdoor oval fairly well. Another intriguing storyline to follow is how many girls we can see go under 10 minutes. And considering the amount of raw talent that we will see on the starting line, I think we'll see seven runners eclipse the 10-minute mark (yes, seven).

Boy's 3200 Meters:

Analysis: This is the race that I've been dreaming of since seeing what Danny Simmons and Drew Griffith both ran at New Balance Indoor Nationals. And after a long enough wait, we finally get a head-to-head showdown between the two best long distance runners in the country. Throw in the best miler in the country (JoJo Jourdon) looking to reset his personal best and you've got a recipe for the best race of the 2024 outdoor track season.
 

Girl's 4 x 1600-Meter Relay:

Analysis: This race features three teams that qualified for NXN last fall (Lone Peak, Buchanan and Jesuit). And unsurprisingly, those are the teams that I'm picking to take the top spots on Friday. I'm giving the Lone Peak Knights the edge based mainly on the fact that they are the only team that already has had four athletes run 5:00 for 1600 meters so far this season.
 

Boy's 4 x 1600-Meter Relay:

Analysis: Last, but not least is the boy's 4x1600-meter relay, headlined once again by the American Fork Cavemen. They have two separate relay teams in the championship section of this event. After running 16:43 in this event at New Balance Indoor Nationals and looking at the sheer amount of depth the Cavemen have (11 runners under 4:30 for 1600 meters), I'm picking the Cavemen to win on Friday Night. Even so, that contingent of distance stars shouldn't overshadow how good the boys of Dana Hills could be. They have a small army of sub-4:30 milers, many of whom have great momentum right now, and a true ace in Evan Noonan.