PAC-12 XC Championship Preview

With no regional meets happening this season due to COVID protocols, the fate of many teams' cross country seasons will come down to the PAC-12 Championships on Friday. Per the NCAA, more weight is being given to the conference performances when considering teams for the national meet. This means that the PAC-12 schools will need to be at their very best this Friday if they want to keep their postseason hopes alive.

The combination of track and cross country championships occurring within four days of one another will also add to the complexity of who is focused on what, meaning that we may see some top runners opt out of racing this weekend.

So with all of that in mind, let's dive into our preview...

NOTE: The Stride Report was unable to locate official entries for the PAC-12 Championships prior to the publication of this article. However, meet previews from conference members were used as reference.

Written by Sam Ivanecky

When the season started, the Stanford women looked like the clear national title favorites. They were returning loads of star power and were bringing in some of the best recruits in the nation. However, since then, things have gone a little sideways.

Ella Donaghu has been every bit as dominant as expected, winning both of her races this season in superb fashion. She will be the favorite to win the individual title on Friday and provides Stanford with a much needed low card at the top of this field.

Along with Donaghu is rookie Zofia Dudek who has been sensational in her freshman season. She was expected to be a strong performer in 2021, but her results have blown away our high expectations. In Stanford’s two competitions this season, Dudek has placed 3rd and 2nd, finishing a combined seven seconds behind Donaghu in those races.

Based on what we've seen from her this winter, the first-year talent should be a top-five finisher on Friday. In fact, I would argue that she even has the talent to challenge Donaghu for the individual win.

Despite the incredible running by these two, Stanford has struggled to put together a cohesive scoring group. Jessica Lawson was expected to be finishing near Donaghu after a strong 2019 season, but has been well off the pace this season, often finishing in the fourth scoring spot.
 

Not only that, but Northwestern graduate transfer and former All-American Aubrey Roberts has been nowhere near as good as she has been in the past. The veteran has yet to crack the top-60 in a race this season and looks to be a non-factor in the scoring. That could change this weekend, but her past two races have elicited much confidence.

Jordan Oakes, a key veteran from last year's team, was in the "B" race at the FSU Winter XC Classic and did toe the line for Stanford's last race. It's possible that she races on Friday, but given her lack of results this season, that seems unlikely.

Without that group, Stanford has turned to Julia Heymach and some of their younger runners in an effort to fill the gaps of their varsity lineup.

Heymach has been strong this season, finishing as the third scoring Cardinal in both races. She could very well crack the top-10 on Friday, but where the Stanford women are particularly vulnerable is at their fifth scoring position.

At the Battle Born XC Challenge, Stanford’s fifth runner scored 48 points, the most of any fifth runner amongst the top-six teams. In a tight PAC-12 race, that depth could become the achilles heel for this powerhouse program.

But the funny thing about expectations is that some teams can fail to meet them while other teams can exceed them. One team that has exceeded their preseason expectations has been the Colorado Buffaloes.

Yes, Colorado is normally a strong team, but with the graduation of some key stars from their 2019 lineup, the Buffs left us with a lot of questions heading into this year. However, the addition of a few graduate transfers and the resurgence of some key names has lifted Colorado back into the podium conversation.

At certain points throughout her college career, Rachel McArthur has been a bit inconsistent when it comes to cross country. However, this season has been somewhat of a renaissance for the Virginia native.

After a strong showing at the Oklahoma State Invitational earlier in the fall, McArthur led the Colorado women to a stunning victory at the FSU Winter XC Classic with her 5th place finish, taking down Stanford in the process. Although she sat out of the Battle Born XC Challenge with a minor injury, she is expected to return to action this weekend and should be a dark horse in the individual race.

Of course, this team is more than just McArthur.

The two graduate transfers, Abby Nichols and Michaela Degenero, have stepped up in big ways this winter. Degenero placed 12th at the FSU Winter XC Classic and Nichols led the Buffs in Las Vegas during their last outing with a strong 8th place finish which was far better than her performance at Florida State.

Both women have had some outstanding moments this season, but Degenero has been the pleasant surprise. She's never been this good before and her rise has allowed the Buffaloes to be where they're at today.

Colorado has also seen strong performances from their younger runners such as Emily Covert, Elizabeth Constien and Annie Hill. These three have put down solid races this season and will likely be the differentiating scorers in what will surely be a tight team race between Colorado, Stanford and Washington. Don't be surprised if one of these three women has a breakout performance.

One other name to watch is senior Madison Boreman. After winning the "B" race at the FSU Winter XC Classic, Boreman was the second Buffalo to cross the line at the Battle Born XC Challenge. She looks to be rising at the right time and could be a major factor in how Friday’s race shapes out.

In other words, Colorado will be looking to take home the conference crown with a true low-stick and some of the best depth in the NCAA.

The other women’s team that has a shot at the PAC-12 title is the Washington Huskies. They have raced twice this season, finishing 4th at the Silver State Collegiate Challenge and 6th at Battle Born (one place behind Colorado). While neither of those results are great, the Huskies have yet to play their full hand.

Melany Smart, one of the nation’s best cross country runners in the fall of 2019, is slated to make her season debut on Friday. She finished 12th at the NCAA XC Championships as only a freshman and should be in the mix for the individual title on Friday. With Smart in the lineup, Washington is a dramatically better team than what we saw at Las Vegas a few weeks ago. In fact, I would argue that they could become dark horses for the PAC-12 team title.

Behind Smart, the Huskies will look to have some combination of Haley Herberg, Naomi Smith and Allie Schadler. That trio has been running well this winter, but were a little flat at the Battle Born XC Challenge, with no one cracking the top-10 individually.

Even so, that wasn't a full Washington lineup and that trio would have been similar to the 2-3-4 scorers from Stanford and Colorado had Melany Smart toed the line. Teammate Allie Schadler has been running particularly well on the indoor track as of late and could be due for a breakout race on the grass.

Still, even with a full lineup, Washington will need a big day to take down either Stanford or Colorado. Their 6th place finish during their last outing in Las Vegas wasn't exactly encouraging, but as we mentioned before, they were missing a few pieces (other than just Smart) in that race.

Per Washington’s meet preview, both Shona McCulloch and Oregon transfer Taylor Chiotti are eligible to compete this weekend. McCulloch was 12th at this meet in 2019 while Chiotti went on to finish 79th at the NCAA XC Championships in that same year, emerging as the top scorer at the national meet during her time with the Ducks.

Those two women will be extremely important names to watch as they could be the deciding factors in a potential upset bid if the rest of this Washington lineup runs to their full potential. However, they have yet to compete this year, so we're unsure if any pre-race rust will get in the way.

On the topic of team’s needing a big day to qualify for Nationals, Utah’s national meet hopes will almost entirely hinge on this race. They have had two lackluster showings thus far and unless they have a surprise run at the title on Friday, the Utes will have a hard time qualifying for the NCAA XC Championships.

Given that Bella Williams and a few other former varsity members will not be competing on Friday, it looks increasingly more likely that the Utes will not be headed to Stillwater.

And what about the Oregon women? We have some major question marks for them. They have a few key pieces, but this team is expected to be completely different than they once were in 2019.

Alessia Zarbo looks like a promising young talent, but we've never seen her race in a collegiate cross country meet before. Will she toe the line on Friday? And how about Aneta Konieczek? She made a massive leap in fitness this winter after running a 4:35 mile back in February, but will she be able to effectively translate that success to the grass?

Even if the Ducks do field a few of their better distance names on Friday, it's hard to imagine a scenario where they'll be able to contend with the top teams in this field. This is a relatively young group and there are legitimate questions about depth when looking at their projected lineup.

Also, be sure to keep an eye on the Oregon State women. They have a lot of depth and a few underrated talents in Grace Fetherstonhaugh (if she runs) and Kaylee Mitchell.

In the individual race, Ella Donaghu will be the heavy favorite. Our TSR #1 runner has gone two for two this season and is showing no signs of slowing down. Freshman teammate Zofia Dudek has been right on her heels and could potentially challenge if Donaghu falters.

The other big name to watch, as previously mentioned, is Mel Smart of Washington. This will be her first race since the 2020 indoor track season and she was one of the best in cross country prior to the pandemic. With no races thus far, it’s a bit veiled as to what to expect from her heading into Friday's race.

Written by Garrett Zatlin

There is a TON to talk about on the men's side of the PAC-12 XC Championships, but no team has generated more questions than the Oregon Ducks.

We've known for a few weeks now that the men from Eugene, Oregon will be putting an emphasis on the NCAA Indoor Championships this year. They have made a clear effort to run top times on the indoor oval and their top names, with the exception of Jackson Mestler, haven't run on the grass this season.

So what does that mean for the PAC-12 XC Championships?

Will Oregon really not field a full varsity lineup? With the indoor national meet a week away, it wouldn't be impossible to ask Cooper Teare, Cole Hocker and Charlie Hunter to toe the line on Friday. If that were to happen, then the Ducks could be in the hunt to win the conference title.

Truthfully, we're not 100% sure what the Oregon men will do for tomorrow's race. One article suggests that many of the top Ducks on this roster will not be toeing the line (although we believe Jackson Mestler will) while another article quotes Teare as saying that they "might" do cross country.

In a world where the Oregon men do field their best lineup at the PAC-12 XC Championships, they would be in contention to win it all. Cooper Teare would be viewed as the individual favorite, Cole Hocker would provide even more firepower and Jackson Mestler is a legitimate third scorer capable of finishing in the top-10 of this race.

However, questions remain about the backend of this lineup. Charlie Hunter looks like he has improved his fitness in the longer distances after running 13:57 (5k) this past December, but how will that translate to the grass? And what about the rest of this lineup? Who will be the fifth scorer? Will it be sub-four freshman miler Evan Holland who ran 3:59 earlier this winter? What about Reed Brown? Or Elliott Cook? Or Carter Christman? Or Jack Yearian?

It's not like this team doesn't have options for their backend, but we're just not sure who is going to close out the scoring for this group. Heck, we don't even know if their top scorers will be racing.

But let's set aside our conversation about Oregon and transition to the team that is probably the conference title favorite, Stanford.

The men from Palo Alto have been outstanding this year, flexing depth that is far better than some of us imagined it to be with younger runners who have turned out to be fantastic scorers. That youth was initially seen as a liability in our eyes, but it has since given the Stanford men some exciting upside in their last two races.

The Cardinal are a complete team. Their underclassmen have been responsible for the grand success of this lineup and while we knew they would be good, we didn't think this many guys would be running so well.

Charles Hicks and Cole Sprout look like the clear 1-2 punch for this Stanford team, but they have been closely flanked by guys like Devin Hart, Alek Parsons and DJ Principe in their last two races. They seem to have a complete top-five, the gaps within their lineup are fairly minimal and the consistency that we've seen out of the veterans has been encouraging.

Not only that, but Stanford even boasts incredibly capable sixth and seventh runners when looking at how Michael Vernau, Thomas Boyden and Callum Bolger have performed.

In other words, Stanford should be able to fend off the difficult challenges that they'll likely see from fellow powerhouse teams in the PAC-12. Oregon is likely their biggest threat on paper, but we're not even sure if Teare, Hocker or Hunter will be racing on Friday.

The only uncertainty we have with the Cardinal is whether or not their youth and inexperience in these kind of championship settings will play role during tomorrow's race. They haven't faltered this season despite the competition they have faced, but the PAC-12 Championships are a different animal.

Moving off of Stanford, I think we need to chat about the Colorado men. They have been solid this season, but without the services of Kashon Harrison and graduate transfer Stephen Jones, the backend of their varsity lineup has left us wanting more.

Eduardo Herrera looks like an incredible talent and is currently in a spot where he is probably one of the 10 best cross country runners in the NCAA right now. There is a legitimate chance that he wins the PAC-12 title on Friday and gives the Buffs a massive scoring boost.

On top of that, Alec Hornecker has put together a very solid regular season, placing 8th at the FSU Winter XC Classic and 7th at the Battle Born XC Challenge. The postseason was where he really broke out in the fall of 2019 and the same could happen again this season, except this time, we'll be better prepared.

The problem, however, is that the scoring potency seems to stop there. Kashon Harrison was primed to be an All-American in 2019, but had a bit of an "off" day at the national meet. Unfortunately, he has been absent from competition this winter and has left a somewhat notable gap scoring in this varsity lineup.

We have also not seen Stephen Jones this season, the graduate transfer from Mississippi State. That, however, is due to an injury.

With two highly-valuable pieces out of this lineup, it's been tough for the Colorado men to upend teams like Stanford. Sure, guys like Austin Vancil, Hunter Appleton and Paxton Smith have held their own, but will their scoring contributions be enough to contend with the Cardinal? We never want to doubt Wetmore, but the Buffaloes are 0-2 against the Stanford men this year, so take that as you will.

We then come to the Washington men. What a tricky team to figure out.

They truthfully underwhelmed during the 2019 cross country season. Their top low-sticks didn't have the same spark that they had in 2018, their star underclassmen were largely absent from competition and the depth just wasn't strong enough to contend with the top teams in the PAC-12.

However, this squad has seemingly turned it around based on their one race this year.

With a lineup that looked awfully similar to the one that we saw in 2019, the Huskies pulled off a major upset over Notre Dame at the Silver State XC Challenge. Yes, the Fighting Irish had a tough outing, but we saw a lot of encouraging results from the Seattle-based men.

In that race, Talon Hull looked like the true low-stick that we've seen him be in the past. He finished 3rd overall in a super top-heavy field and gave his team a much needed scoring spark. Redshirt freshman Luke Houser placed 13th in that race and proved to be the solid secondary scorer that we knew he could be based on his indoor track performances from last winter.

However, it was the backend of this lineup that kept this varsity group afloat.

Alex Slenning (15th) and Isaac Green (19th) had some of the best cross country performances of their college careers while redshirt freshman Joe Waskom (25th) also emerged as the fifth and final scorer who quickly closed out the point accumulation for Washington.

Overall, this was a really solid result. We got to see the main pieces from the Huskies' 2019 cross country team step up and make notable improvements. We also saw a few younger talents like Houser and Waskom deliver the scoring needs that this team needed a year and a half ago.
 

Of course, like every team in this preview, the Washington men aren't perfect.

Despite being an All-American in 2018, Tibebu Proctor has since struggled. He has been unable to reach his top form over the past few seasons and most recently finished 29th at the Silver State XC Challenge. He was once providing a ton of firepower to this team, but has since faltered a bit.

The PAC-12 is one of the rare conferences where firepower will trump depth in most cross country races. If Washington wants to challenge Stanford or hold off Colorado, they'll want Proctor in his 2018 form.

Additionally, we've only seen this team race once this season. Their last outing was strong, but if Notre Dame doesn't run as poorly as they did, then would we be as excited about Washington as we are now?
 

Now, in fairness to the UW men, they have been exceptionally strong on the indoor oval this winter. Both Green and Houser ran a pair of 13:47's for 5000 meters earlier this season while Slenning and Waskom both ran under 13:55 in that same race.

In other words, we're not questioning their talent. We just aren't 100% sure how they stack up relative to this field.

Finally, let's chat about Washington State. If they run their best names, then they could mix things up. Colton Johnsen has been a stud on the indoor oval this season, but with a 5k/3k double coming up at the indoor national meet, it's unclear whether or not he'll be racing.

Guys like Amir Ado and Matthew Watkins are solid talents and the progress that we have seen from others on this roster could give the Cougars a respectable top-five.

*Assumes that Oregon will run a full lineup

*Assumes that Oregon will run a full lineup