Grace McLaughlin
May 23, 20225 min
Additional contributions by Garrett Zatlin
NOTE: Athletes are listed in order of their seed position. Final predictions are at the bottom.
Robles is an experienced front-runner with the best aerobic strength in this field and she also has a lethal kick in case anyone is able to hang onto her aggressive pacing.
Sandoval is the returning runner-up in this event and is a highly experienced veteran with both endurance as well as strength-based speed, giving her the best chance of taking down Robles.
The Laker veteran has the most experience in the field and has built astounding momentum since the NCAA Indoor Championships, setting personal bests in nearly every race she has toed the line for this spring which is something that could make her a wild card title contender come Thursday.
If Queens was staying at the D2 level, then it would have only been a matter of time before Alanis wins a national title, but I don't think that it will happen this year as this women's 10k field is super top-heavy.
Despite big 10k improvements this year, Baker isn't quite in the title conversation, but she is a consistent All-American in the distance events and her recent momentum could make her very dangerous.
Hough has two All-American honors, seems to peak in championship races and is having a very underrated breakout year, but she is still a fairly inexperienced runner who doesn't have the same high-level championship exposure that a few other women in this field do.
Esvelt is a rookie by eligibility, but she races with the poise of a veteran which we saw during her 8th place finish at the NCAA Indoor Championships and it's clear that she is at her best when she is contesting the longer distances.
Thompson has been consistent throughout this season and has plenty of championship experience from her time at Malone, making her a dark horse candidate in this field, especially when you consider her recent momentum and prior All-American honors.
Anicic has been setting personal bests across several distances this season and although she missed All-American honors by three spots in the 5k at the NCAA Indoor Championships, she could have a different outcome if she rides her recent momentum.
Rebello, another rookie on the verge of a significant breakthrough, is right on the bubble of earning All-American honors and if the race goes out hard, then she has the potential to hang on longer than some of her competition.
A challenging runner to analyze, Brown has a complicated relationship with the 10k based on her recent race results, but her upside is promising based on the fact that she qualified for the national meet with her lone 10k race that she finished this spring.
Means finished 8th at the 2021 NCAA XC Championships and then fell a bit off the radar until this spring where she set new PRs in the 5k and 10k this season, giving her momentum to pair with the crazy-high potential that she showed on the grass.
It's hard to predict how Maskin will do in this field because she has only raced three times since finishing 12th in the 5k at the NCAA Indoor Championships, but she has since bettered her previous 10k PR by over two minutes and has been consistently improving in both her strength as well as her speed.
Ackley will run at her first national meet after setting huge personal bests throughout the season and while her development throughout college has been gradual, her aerobic strength will benefit her in a race that will likely favor strength-based runners.
It is easy to overlook Paredes at a school like Adams State, but the Grizzly runner managed to qualify for the national meet in the 10k in her first-ever attempt which means that she has some serious potential in the event down the road, although inexperience in an event like this can be a challenge.
Wamsley is a true freshman and has only run one 10k ever, but her personal bests of 16:47 (5k) and 35:06 (10k) make her one to watch in the coming years, especially once she gets the experience of racing in this field.
We have been wondering how the Nebraska transfer would do with transitioning to Division Two and it appears to have been a great choice for Pagone whose 10k PR is 15 seconds faster than the time she qualified with (35:09), meaning that she may be able to crack the top-10 if she runs at her absolute best.
Comastri hasn't exactly been in her absolute prime this season, but this race seems like the perfect opportunity for the veteran to remind everyone just how difficult she is to take down in these longer races.
Learn has consistently improved throughout college to get to the national stage, placing 58th at the NCAA XC Championships this past fall and earning personal bests in the 5k and 10k this season, so while she may lack championship experience on the track, it's clear that she can be nationally competitive in the longer distances.
Nash is another athlete entering the national stage for the first time, having run three 10k races this season and improving each time, meaning that she is more familiar with this distance than some of the other rookies competing, which is a huge advantage when it comes to tactics, pacing and general feel.
Ruiz is a true freshman who shows potential for the years to come, having raced the 10k several times this season, so she has that to her advantage, but this will likely be a learning opportunity for the up-and-coming Biola standout
Scholl has been reliable this year and has improved immensely throughout college, and although she might not be in the All-American conversation come Thursday, the Cedarville star might surprise some people with her ongoing improvement.
Wegienka has had a steady progression to where she is now and has been fairly consistent at this distance, and while she is an unknown name going into the national meet, this is a huge opportunity for her to show her talent at its peak.
Brianna Robles (Adams State)
Jennifer Sandoval (Azusa Pacific)
Fatima Alanis (Queens (NC))
Jessica Gockley (Grand Valley State)
Annika Esvelt (Seattle Pacific)
Zoe Baker (Colorado Mines)
Hannah Thompson (Findlay)
Cameron Hough (Southern Indiana)