John Cusick
May 23, 20224 min
Additional contributions by Garrett Zatlin
NOTE: Athletes are listed in order of their seed position. Final predictions are at the bottom.
With only two races this season, Beraki's sample size for our analysis isn't great, but as long as this race is honest, you’ll see him near the front where he will have a very realistic chance to defeat Powell and Harding for the title.
Powell’s front-running tendencies could make this race honest from the gun and while that might be his biggest strength, the same could be said for many other men in this field.
The combination of strength, improved turnover and years of experience debatably makes Harding the favorite coming into this race, although he'll need to hone all of his best strengths to hold off one of the deeper 10k fields in recent memory.
Much like his teammate, Chada is a proven veteran who has improved in all facets of his racing and is just as big of a threat for the title as those who are ahead of him on the national leaderboard.
Zeru has quietly climbed up the national 10k ranks and will likely benefit from an honest pace given his somewhat limited displays of middle distance speed and turnover.
A quiet season for the Colorado Mines veteran doesn’t mean that he won’t find himself in the mix during the final few laps, but uncertainty about Moran's foot speed combined with his minimal racing makes it hard to truly know what to expect from him.
Fuehne doesn’t have a lot of experience in NCAA meets and his overall times aren’t necessarily up to par with the rest of this field, but his youth makes him more of a high-upside wild card pick for an All-American finish.
Yusuf placed 5th in the 10k at last year’s outdoor national meet and given his savvy racing experience, he could take advantage of this field if enough men implode due to a presumably hot pace.
We didn’t see a whole lot from Stimpfel this spring, but we are confident that he’ll find himself near the front as his experience against some of the top names in this field will prove to be extremely valuable.
This is the first time Fisher has raced at a national meet on the track and while his lack of championship experience could be detrimental in a grueling race, he has still shown promising consistency this year.
Much like the rest of this field, the faster the pace the better Schmidt will fare, but the question at hand will be if Schmidt can stick around long enough to be a factor at the end of this race.
A three-time 10k national qualifier, Smith is fresh off of his best season and that improved confidence/momentum should pay dividends when the 25 laps are over.
The lack of racing for Joseph this spring may cause some hesitation in predictions, but if he can replicate anything close to his Mt. SAC Relays race, then we could be talking about an impressive run that results in an All-American finish.
The Gonzaga transfer will be at the first outdoor national meet of his somewhat young career and while his performance at the MIAA Championships was far from good (which may have been intentional), Bach has been very reliable this year.
Nash has quickly and quietly become one of the more well-rounded runners in the country, but he may lack the firepower at this time to truly contend with the veterans for a top-eight finish.
Chepkesir brings in a wealth of experience and proven front-running greatness, but he’ll need to use that to his advantage as he hasn't been at the same level that he was a few years ago.
Kaye is the final Oredigger in the field and given that he has only raced one time this season, we expect him to lock-in with his teammates and give chase to the top group early-on.
Nolan is another very experienced veteran and without a time that puts him over the top, this is going to be a race where Nolan finds himself as part of that lead group either keeping it honest or trying to keep pace.
Lacking experience wasn’t an issue for Rutledge during the cross country national meet and now that he is back to his strongest distance, we think Rutledge can sneak his way inside the All-American conversation with a well-executed race plan.
McLaughlin is a sneaky-good name who ran three-straight personal bests at the beginning of this season and if he continues to build off of his All-American cross country finish, then he'll surprise a lot of people.
Jones has improved rapidly this season and could play spoiler if things stay honest, although his work in the 800 meters this spring suggests that he's also working on his speed and turnover.
Brown has reached the outdoor national meet for the first time in career, but the success of his race will be determined by how he responds to moves and applies his racing tactics.
We have seen young Grand Valley State athletes perform well on the national stage before and Martens could be yet another Laker who outperforms expectations as long he follows the race plan.
Isaac Harding (Grand Valley State)
Dillon Powell (Colorado Mines)
Tanner Chada (Grand Valley State)
Awet Beraki (Adams State)
CarLee Stimpfel (Saginaw Valley State)
Afewerki Zeru (UC-Colorado Springs)
Nadir Yusuf (MSU-Moorhead)
Tai Smith (Wingate)