On The Brink (Women)

We took a glance at last year's cross country teams that didn't qualify for the national meet and tried to figure out which programs have the best chance at making it to the National Championships in 2020. You can read our men's article by clicking here.

Our TSR team had an extensive amount of debate and discussion as to who deserved this fifth and final spot. Teams such as Oregon State, Duke, Georgetown, and North Carolina (amongst others) all had solid arguments for potentially making the national meet later this fall, but we ultimately settled on the Alabama women as having the best chance. Not necessarily because they'll be the best team, but because they have the most potential.

At first glance, our choice may be surprising. The Crimson Tide finished 5th at the 2019 SEC Championships and then 6th at the South Regional Championships (one point behind Vanderbilt). They didn't post anything exciting during the regular season and the loss of veteran scorer Rebecca Buteau is also far from ideal.

However, what many people seem to forget when it comes to the women of Alabama is that they boast two of the top low-sticks in the nation. Mercy Chelangat had a breakout indoor track season this past winter, running 15:37 for 5000 meters -- a performance that was far better than anything she showed us last fall. Chelangat was still one of the better runners in the SEC and South region last year, but a performance like that tells us that she could win a regional title in November.

Not only that, but this year's cross country lineup should also include Esther Gitahi who (seemingly) redshirted the 2019 cross country season. Gitahi ran 15:51 for 5000 meters during the spring of 2019 which resulted in her finishing 3rd overall at the National Championships behind Dani Jones and Taylor Werner.

Alabama may have one of the better 1-2 punches in the NCAA this cross country season, but you wouldn't know that looking at last year's results. This new-found firepower should easily vault the Alabama women into a much better spot than they were in last fall. When you throw in rising sophomore Allie Wilson -- who finished 21st at the South regional meet last year -- you begin to realize that Alabama has a very respectable top three.

Now, admittedly, the depth of this team is a major question mark.

Women such as Amaris Tyynismaa and Jami Reed each ran under 9:50 for 3000 meters as freshmen this past winter, but clearly needed additional development if they were going to be competitive in cross country. Alexa Cruz and Lauren Brackin will return from last year's lineup, but simply need to be better if this team is going to have any chance at making the national meet.

With an overwhelming strong top two, a respectable #3 scorer and a handful of young returners with plenty of upside, the Crimson Tide have a chance to surprise a lot of people later this year.

The only question is...will they?

If you've read some of our other articles, then you know where I'm going with this. The women of UCLA have a chance to be really good this year. Yes, they struggled a bit last fall, placing 8th at the PAC-12 Championships and then 11th at West regional meet. That, however, is not indicative of what they are truly capable of.

 The return of All-American Christina Rice is a nice start and it's good to know that the team will have a reliable front-runner that they can lean on throughout the season. However, the catalysts for change will be found in Erika Adler and Monica Hebner.

Adler was an individual national qualifier in cross country during the fall of 2018 and finished 13th at the PAC-12 Championships that year. After recording a DNF result at Nuttycombe last fall, she remained absent from competition until indoor track.

Monica Hebner -- a Duke transfer from the summer of 2019 -- had a very quiet cross country season last year. She DNF'd in two meets (Bill Dellinger and Nuttycombe) before finishing 32nd at the Highlander Invitational and then 99th at PAC-12's.

It seems fair to suggest that Hebner wasn't at 100% in 2019. As a freshman, she qualified for the National Championships in the 10,000 meters. An accomplishment of that nature leads us to believe that she will be / can be much more competitive come October and November.

When pairing the trio of Rice, Adler and Hebner with incoming freshman Carlie Dorostkar, the Bruins of UCLA could become of the most underrated teams in the NCAA coming into this upcoming cross country season. Of course, a lot of this is speculation, and nothing is guaranteed, but there are few teams in the nation who have the same level of potential as the women from Los Angeles, California.

The 2019 cross country was a surprising down year for the Oklahoma State Cowgirls. The team boasted two of the best low-sticks in the country (Taylor Somers and Molly Born), but the gap between those two and the rest of their top five proved to be far too much to overcome, even with a star-studded recruiting class.

In fairness to Oklahoma State, the surprise loss of Sinclaire Johnson -- who forewent her collegiate eligibility and turned pro early last summer -- certainly pushed the Pokes one step backwards. The strength of last year's team was going to rely on their overwhelming trio of elite scorers. However, with Johnson out of the equation, the scoring demands from the rest of their lineup proved to be too much to handle.

Even so, it's important to remember that this team still won the BIG 12 title last year and finished 4th at the Midwest Regional Championships. They weren't perfect, but they were far from bad. In 2020, the Cowgirls have a chance to build upon what they had last year and get back to the national meet after missing out in 2019.

From a returners standpoint, the team's only loss is Katylyn Larson who was a key #3 scorer for the ladies of Oklahoma State last fall. However, other than her, the team returns a handful of women that were all underclassmen in the fall of 2019. Another year of experience for these ladies should result in a natural progression of their fitness which will hopefully cover the major gaps that they had in last year's lineup.

Oklahoma State still has a lot of work to do. They are still very young, have a noticeable gap in the middle of their lineup and the Midwest region isn't getting any easier.

Even so, this is a historically dominant team that has been one of the nation's best programs for years now. Plus, Coach Dave Smith will want to have his ladies ready to qualify for the national meet come November -- a meet that is being hosted on their home course.

We've already talked about Syracuse a few times when it comes to cross country teams that deserve to be at the national meet. On paper, this is a team that has been capable of qualifying for NCAA's over the last few years. They've always had the necessary low-sticks, the right amount of depth and enough experience to advance them past the regional meet.

However, the Orange have been unable to get out of the Northeast region for two years now. As we approach the 2020 cross country season, the women of Syracuse have a chance to redeem themselves and reassert themselves as the Northeast's premier distance group.

The good news is that true low-stick Amanda Vestri will be returning to the team and will continue to offer valuable scoring potency. The only problem, however, is that the Orange lose both Jordan Jacob -- their top finisher at the Northeast regional meet last fall -- and Madeleine Davison from last year's lineup (according to TFRRS).

That may seem like a hefty loss, but it's important to remember a few key things about Syracuse last season. Laura Dickinson finished 3rd overall at the Battle in Beantown last fall, but was absent throughout the rest of the season (presumably with an injury, although that is unconfirmed). It also doesn't help that rising senior Rachel Bonner -- who finished 16th at the ACC's Championships -- was a DNF at the Northeast Regional Championships.

Had those two women been at 100% for the regional meet, then the idea of Syracuse qualifying for NCAA's would have been plenty realistic.

If the Orange can keep everyone healthy and properly utilize incoming freshman Sarah Connelly, they could take the Northeast region by storm this year and punch their tickets to Nationals.

There was plenty of debate about which five teams we wanted to talk about, but it wasn't hard to come to a consensus on Butler. The Bulldogs had a very strong and underrated 2019 cross country season. Unfortunately for them, they were left out of the national meet after numerous BIG 10 teams crowded the final few qualifying spots.

However, this year could be different for the ladies from Indianapolis. They return six women from last year's top seven, including their entire top five from the regional meet. Rising senior Emily Royston has proven that she can be a reliable front-runner for a nationally competitive program while Angelina Ellis has shown plenty of promise as well.

It also doesn't hurt that many of these women will be returning with much more experience and will be hungry to earn themselves a spot to the national meet after missing out last fall.

Despite their numerous returners and another year of experience, the fact of the matter is that they will simply need to be better during the regular season. Yes, it's true that the Bulldogs won the BIG East title over Villanova and Georgetown last fall before going on to finish 7th at the Great Lakes Regional Championships -- a spot that theoretically would have been enough to get them to Terre Haute had they secured enough Kolas points.

Of course, Kolas points was the very problem. The Butler women had not earned enough points throughout the 2019 regular season to advance them out of the Great Lakes region. An underwhelming performance at Joe Piane -- as well as an unlucky Kolas scenario which resulted in only one point from Pre-Nationals -- left the Bulldogs with a mere two points when the final Kolas calculations were said and done.

This is a group that deserves to be among the 31 teams toeing the line for the national meet come November. Now they just have to deliver on those expectations.