Never Too Early (Part 1)

We are still a long way out from September 7th, the first official day of competition for the upcoming cross country season where teams can begin to battle for Kolas points. Although we have a ton of recruit research and transfer news to look into, there is still plenty to discuss (at least at a high level).

Let's begin today's conversation with the men which is filled with unknowns for the first time in what feels like forever. A handful of teams will by vying for NCAA gold come November, but there doesn't appear to be any overwhelming favorites like we've seen in the past.

I feel like we need to start with Northern Arizona, the juggernaut dynasty that has secured the last three cross country national titles with relative ease. The narrative with the Lumberjacks entering the 2019 season is that they will be vulnerable and it's understandable as to why. They lose three established All-American veterans (Day, Baxter, and Lomong) from their squad - a trio that has headlined NAU's top seven for quite some time now.

Of course, it would be ignorant to suggest that Northern Arizona is no longer a dangerous team. If anything, this is a group that can still be in the conversation for the national title. Let's not forget that although this team lost three All-Americans, they still return three All-Americans as well (Beamish, Grijalva, and Ferro). Not only that, but they return exciting, young up-and-comers such as Ryan Raff (who finished 21st at Nuttycombe) and Brodey Hasty who will still be considered a freshman after redshirting last fall.

Think that's it? Far from it.

NAU will also enter 2019 with (spoiler alert) a top 10 recruiting class. Between Drew Bosley, Caleb Easton, and Corey Gorgas the Lumberjacks will be primed for another title run.

Alright, fine, enough about NAU. What about everyone else?

Update: BYU will still be good. Overall, they have too much talent to be ignored and they were the deepest team in the NCAA last year through seven runners. The problem is that a heavy portion of their firepower is gone. They lose two All-Americans from last year (Linkletter and McMillan) as well as Clayton Young. Luckily, they will still be able to build around guys like Conner Mantz and Clayson Shumway. But can they find enough men to contend with lethal low-sticks on other squads?

And how about Washington? They are arguably the most intriguing team of the 2019 season after an uber successful first year under Andy Powell and the recent introduction of some top-tier transfers.

The Huskies lose Tanner Anderson, but they found the perfect replacement in Iowa State transfer Andrew Jordan. Between Jordan, Proctor, and Hull, the Huskies have a great top three...but how will their depth hold up? Washington is certainly a deep team (they had three men at 8:55 or faster for the steeplechase this past spring), but will that depth be good enough to get them NCAA gold? Your guess is as good as mine, but the addition of San Francisco transfer Jack Rowe certainly helps their case.

Let's talk about Stanford. What should be expect from them? Honestly, I think they'll be even better than they were last year despite losing Grant Fisher. The main reason for that is because Stanford may be getting the NCAA steeplechase champion (Steven Fahy) back in their lineup if the NCAA grants him additional eligibility. Not only that, but Thomas Ratcliffe finally looks healthy after running 13:32 this past spring and earning a bronze medal at the National Championships.

This fall, the Cardinal could end up fielding a lineup that includes Alex Ostberg, Alek Parsons, Steven Fahy, and Thomas Ratcliffe. That group of four might be the four best distance runners any single team has this year. If the men from Palo Alto can build enough depth, the last team I would want to face is Stanford.

Speaking of Stanford, let's chat about the team that kicked them off the podium last fall. I am, of course, referring to the Colorado Buffaloes. Mark Wetmore's group had a huge race at last year's national meet where they finished 4th overall thanks to an 8-9-11 finish from Klecker, Dressel, and Forsyth. Eduardo Herrera placed 43rd while their 5th man (Ethan Gonzales) was a distant 143rd.

Unfortunately for the Buffs, they lose both Forsyth and Gonzales this summer. They'll still have one of the better top three's in the country, but the bottom half of their lineup was a key issue for them last year. In all likelihood, that will continue to cause problems for them this fall unless someone on their roster steps up in a big way.

We already spoke about Iowa State in an earlier article, but the team has to be hurting after losing Andrew Jordan. The Cyclones were a team that I thought could have been on the podium this fall, but without another low-stick to complement Edwin Kurgat, I'm not sure their (very solid) supporting cast will be enough to get them a top five finish. Still, this is a very experienced group and Coach Smith will have plenty of options to choose from when constructing his top seven.

One team that I don't think many people are talking about is Wisconsin.

Why?

Because no one really knows what is going to happen with them.

How will the team respond without Morgan McDonald leading the way? Will Oliver Hoare return to school or sign a pro contract? How much will Shuaib Aljabaly and Olin Hacker improve? The Badgers can be a formidable squad in 2019, but they could also regress quite a bit compared to last year.

In other words, I have no idea what kind of team we're going to see.

The breakout teams from 2018 were more than just one-year wonders. Squads like Wyoming and Notre Dame return a heavy portion of their lineups from last year and could be set to make some serious noise this fall. The Fighting Irish bring back their entire top six from last year's national meet. That doesn't even include Dylan Jacobs who won the 2017 Footlocker national title.

As for the Wyoming Cowboys, they bring back their top four men from last year's 12th place squad at NCAA's. All of them were juniors in 2018, meaning that they will all be seniors with championship experience this fall. That could be a very dangerous formula for success.

While all of those teams are exciting, there are three programs that I am extremely eager to watch this fall. That would be Ole Miss, Michigan, and Indiana.

I want to start with the Ole Miss Rebels who have such a unique roster structure that consists of primarily young, inexperienced, middle-distance studs who happen to have great range. Don't get me wrong, guys like Farah Karimabdul and Mario Garcia Romo are true long distance runners, but it is absolutely incredible to me that Coach Vanhoy can field a competitive group that is made up of runners that primarily run the 800 and 1500.

Waleed Suliman was an All-American in cross country last year and he will once again be the leader of this group three to four months from now. Suliman will likely be flanked by Garcia Romo and Abdulkarim as well as guys like Cade Bethmann, Dalton Hengst, Ben Savino, and a a handful of others.

The next team on my mind is Michigan. On paper, they could be a very big problem for their BIG 10 opponents. John Aho came up big in the postseason last year and secured an All-American performance for the Wolverines, placing 35th overall. If he picks up where left off last year, I like the idea of Big Blue going far this season.

Although they will likely need to give Aho some help up front, Coach Sullivan will have the luxury of an extremely deep group that returns everyone from last year. Not only that, but they'll also add Michigan State transfer Ryan Robinson (who was forced to sit out for a year due to NCAA rules) and Baylor transfer Devin Meyrer into the mix. The men from Ann Arbor were extremely young last year, but they'll have championship experience and proven scorers to help them get through 2019.

Of course, the BIG 10 conference title will not simply be handed to Michigan. The reason for that can be attributed to Indiana who had a phenomenal 2018 season despite not having their best runner. Last year gave the Hoosiers a chance to learn a little bit more about themselves. Kyle Mau found out that he could be a true low-stick, Dustin Horter looked like a promising piece for the future, and their depth was surprisingly reliable. When you add Ben Veatch to this team, Indiana becomes a very dangerous squad.

At this point, I'm rambling, but let me make a few final notes before I jump off...

- Oregon: A super deep team with great potential that will benefit from adding Noah Affolder to their group. Can Cooper Teare be an All-American low-stick on a consistent basis?

- Oklahoma State: Dave Smith will always make sure that the Cowboys are competitive. They return two All-Americans from last year (Rodriguez and Hatte) and will inject 8:27 steeplechase star Ryan Smeeton back in their lineup. But what will the rest of their varsity team look like?

- Syracuse + UCLA + Eastern Kentucky: Elite low-sticks, experienced teams, and respectable depth. But can they all run well on the same day?

- Purdue: They will likely be the most underrated team entering 2019. Jaret Carpenter is a stud, Brody Smith is a solid supporting scorer, and Curt Eckstein is waiting for a breakout season. Oh, and they return six of their top seven from last year.

- Portland: On paper, the Pilots look to be in a tough position after graduating some key stars from their team like Nick Hauger and Logan Orndorf. They also lose Michael Somers and Noah Schutte. Of course, Portland has proven that you can never count them out. They have a handful of respectable talent and I'm not ready to bet against Rob Conner just yet.

- Southern Utah: Expectations were low for the Thunderbirds in 2018 once it was announced that they would be redshirting Knevelbaard and Collins. However, they still pieced together a strong group that was led by Aidan Reed. With two strong scorers returning to the front of their lineup, Southern Utah will be a quietly strong team this fall.

- NC State: They were one of the deepest teams in the country last year and that ultimately paid off for them in the postseason. The Wolfpack will lose a few key pieces like Elijah Moskowitz and Patrick Sheehan, but they enough guys to make up for those losses. The real question, however, is if Ian Shanklin can be a true low-stick and give NC State an edge over their ACC competitors.

- Iona: Just pencil them in for a spot to Nationals. I don't even have to look at their roster to know that one.

- Georgetown: After missing the National Championships for the past two seasons (despite having six Kolas points last fall), the Hoyas will be running on pure hate in 2019.