Mid-Season Checkpoint

With half of the indoor season completed, the run-up to the NCAA Championships has just begun and will continue to rapidly evolve in the coming weeks. While we are surely looking ahead, this is the perfect time to reflect on some of the best results from the season thus far, some of the underrated performances from 2019, and discuss what questions intrigue us most about the rest of this indoor season...

- - - - - - - - - -

John: I really think that Devin Dixon’s collegiate records from this weekend is the best performance thus far. To run that fast this early says a lot about him. If you go watch the video, he looks so smooth the entire time from start to finish. My only concern is whether this 1:45 was too early and will if he regress as the season goes on.

Ben: I think another performance that needs to be brought up in this conversation is Amon Kemboi’s 13:33 in December. Garrett did a good job of outlining how rare it is for someone to run that fast that early in the season. His time is still the fastest non-altitude converted 5k so far.

Sam: If we’re talking the 5k, Tyler Day has the fastest time this season and while it has all the conversions, he’s proven he can compete on the track or the grass which makes me think the time is legit.

Sean: Dixon running so fast early is really impressive, but like you said John, it could be a bit early in the season. I suppose on the flip-side is that he has a guaranteed entry to NCAA's which alleviates any pressure of needing to run a big time in the next month.

Elliott: It certainly looks like I wasn’t completely crazy when I drafted Tyler Day. I agree he has the chops to perform well come March. The obvious best performance so far this year does have to be Devin Dixon though. That time is ridiculous at this point in the season and while I know you guys are concerned regarding how long he can keep this up, I think that the experience his coaches at Texas A&M have will help keep him fresh and ready going into the National Championships. Despite this, one big performance that stood out to me has to be Jonathan Davis’s 3:58 at Larry Wieczorek. As of now, that time is still the top mark in the nation, and while no true burners have been run in the mile yet, I believe this sets the tone for what could be a magical run come March.

Ben: I also think that Kemboi running 3:59 this week validates his performance in a way that Day has not. I find it unlikely that Day will be able to earn a top three spot in the 5k because of his inability to kick.

Sean: You all have definitely gone after many of the best individual race performances, but left off Indiana’s DMR of 9:27. That’s a NCAA #6 All-Time mark in a race with no one. Seriously. The next team was Ole Miss in a respectable 9:38, but that was not a race where Mau was pushed on the anchor; he had to do that himself.

John: I was just going to mention that Sean. That DMR set the precedent for the season and with the likes of Kyle Mau and Daniel Michalski looking to already be in great shape, the Hoosiers will be in a good spot come March in terms of the DMR and individuals.

Sean: I’m becoming a huge Cooper Williams fan too based on the versatility of his results for Indiana. Definitely deserves some credit.

Ben: Williams in the sixth round coming up big!

Sean: Another performance we haven’t talked about yet is Oliver Hoare’s 7:48 to beat Mau at Indiana. Really fast time and proving that he could be a threat to win the mile and/or 3k at Nationals.

John: I think you are going to see Hoare be in two events at Nationals. Either those two Ben mentioned, or the DMR and another. He’s good enough for all three if you ask me.

Sam: On the topic of 3k's, my biggest performance this year might have been the men's field in the 3k at the UW Invitational. Nine of the top 11 spots in the country are from that race, the other two are Mau and Hoare. It just goes to show how deep the event is this year, not to mention how many big names have yet to race.

Elliott: If we’re still talking 3k’s, Sydney Gidabuday’s 7:54 at Dr. Sanders was pretty darn impressive...if only we had held a Division II draft.

Sean: A final name I want to throw in here is Alex Rogers of Texas. Definitely not quite at the level as some of these other results, but Rogers is the only 2019 NCAA athlete to run sub 4:00 in the mile twice. Plus, he’s the first Longhorn to do so since the legendary Leo Manzano. Pretty impressive to me considering it’s only January.

Sean: I’m going to take an unorthodox approach to this question, or at least give an unexpected answer and say Nicole Hutchinson’s Dr. Sander Columbia Challenge double. Hutchinson won the invitational mile over 2017 NCAA mile champion Karisa Nelson in 4:33.47 (NCAA#4) and anchored the Villanova DMR to a sub-11:00 clocking without any real competition. I don’t have the full splits for Hutchinson’s DMR anchor, but with a time of 10:59, Hutchinson’s split could not have been any slower than 4:35. I think that makes this the most impressive double of 2019 and thus my most impressive result so far.

Ben: I like that answer because it incorporates the entire meet. Obviously one of the top performances was Ednah Kurgat’s 15:14 earlier this year.

Sam: Are we restricting this to Division 1 only? Otherwise, Caroline Kurgat running 15:28 is easily my women’s performance of the year.

John: Don’t forget her 9:07 from the week before! It would be the second fastest time in D1 if she were to compete right now. She’s locked in.

Elliott: D2 FTW!

Ben: I agree Sam, I was thinking about that one too just because of how much she broke the record by.

Sam: Right now Caroline Kurgat of Alaska Anchorage sits at #8 in the NCAA regardless of division. She was essentially rabbitted through this race, but 15:28 bettered her OUTDOOR personal best by 13 seconds. She looks in shape to win both the 3k and 5k indoors this year and could hypothetically put herself in contention for a Division 1 NCAA title if she were in the race.

John: I’m not entirely sure this is the best performance of the year, but Lauren Gregory of Arkansas ran 4:32 to earn a 2nd place finish behind Jessica Hull this past weekend. She redshirted the track season in 2018 and came back this year with a strong cross country season. She ran 2:44 last week for 1000 meters and came back this past weekend with that big mile time. I think she’ll be a major player at Nationals.

Elliott: Although not the fastest time-wise, one of my favorite performances this year has to be Alyssa Brewer of USC out-kicking Sammy Watson at the Texas Tech Classic this past weekend. So far her 2:06 is the fastest freshman mark in the nation, and coming from the very back and to edge out Sammy Watson is no easy feat. Look for her to be a dark horse for sure going into the bulk of the season.

Sean: I purposely left off Danae Rivers’ 1000 meter collegiate record of 2:38.58 since I wanted to talk about Hutchinson, but no one picked her first?!

Ben: I’m surprised people haven’t mentioned the December 5k where everyone ran great times right after cross country season. #recencybias

John: I think a big part of that Ben is that we all expected that. Coming off of the cross season, we usually see races like that and while they’re impressive, it’s almost MORE impressive to see them come back after Christmas break and throw those times down.

Sam: Agreed with John. Going home for the holidays can definitely mess with your training, even in small ways. Also holiday desserts...

Sean: But they’re collegiate records!

Ben: Kurgat’s time was #3 all-time though!

Sean: Ednah’s was #3 all-time. Caroline’s was a DII record. Rivers was the all division record. I’m still going to give it to Rivers over the 5k duo.

Ben: Yes, but it’s the 1000!

Sam: What Ben said.

John: Caroline’s is more impressive because she was better than the outdoor collegiate record as well.

John: This might be pretty obvious, but the BYU Cougars have gotten off to a hot start this winter. They had three men all run between 7:51 and 7:53 this past weekend with two others running 4:02. They’re going to put together a nasty DMR if you ask me.

Sean: The NCAA runner-up XC team is underrated? I mean, I guess. It’s not my #1 answer, but I feel like Portland is the more underrated XC team for indoor.

John: It’s not a popular answer for sure as we’re talking about being underrated, but they have three runners inside the top eight for 3000 meters and haven’t even run the 5000 yet. With numbers like that, they can compete for a team title at Nationals if everything breaks the right way for them.

Elliott: In my opinion, Washington might be one of the more underrated teams at this juncture. The Huskies' two home meets have shown they have a plethora of distance depth. Their DMR team is currently #4 in the nation with a 9:37. On top of that, Fred Huxham quietly ran a 7:51 3k this past weekend and is currently ranked #5 in the country.

Sam: I definitely agree with Washington. For what it’s worth, Amos Bartelsmeyer (Georgetown grad) is also currently coached by Andy Powell and he’s run 3:55 and 7:49 this year.

John: I just read that Huxham ran 7:51 and furrowed my brow while rapidly switching over to my TFRRS tab. For a team that had a major coaching change in the summer, they are having a strong start to indoor. Not to mention Talon Hull broke 4:00 this past weekend as well.

Ben: Washington is a great answer as they have continued to exceed expectations, but I’m going to go on a bit of a hot take and answer similarly to John. I think one of the teams with the most underrated results is Wisconsin. Hoare just ran 7:48, Olin Hacker has run 4:01 and 7:56, and McDonald hasn’t even run yet. I know they aren’t nearly as deep as a team like Washington or BYU, but they could have the top two distance runners in the country with a third who is knocking on the door of qualifying for Nationals in either the mile or the 3k. These guys were expected to run well and I think they exceeded those expectations. I don’t know if enough people have noticed that.

Sean: Texas Tech has to come up here in my mind. Their depth is really only at 800 with Vincent Crisp and Jonah Koech, but they’ve managed to find a third top 10 runner in the nation with freshman Sven Cepus. Three men at 1:48 mid or better is very impressive and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a DMR attempt from the men in Lubbock.

Sam: Oklahoma State has had a lot of great results that have been somewhat under-the-radar. Molly Sughroue was leading the NCAA in the 3k early in the season with a 9:18 and the team also won the DMR against a loaded field at UW. As the season gets into full swing, it’s likely we will see names like Sinclaire Johnson and Kaylee Dodd run some impressive times in the shorter distances as well.

Elliott: I agree, Sam. Oklahoma State knocked off very talented Boise State and BYU squads in the DMR, and now they have a nation-leading time to show for it.

Ben: The BYU men get a lot of attention, but how about the women? Erica Birk and Whittni Orton just ran 4:36 and 4:38 in the mile which are #11 and #12 on the NCAA leaderboard currently. Plus, Olivia Hoj ran 9:11 at the UW Invite and is now the #7 ranked runner in country for 3000 meters. Courtney Wayment and Maddie Cannon have also ran 9:21 and 9:24, respectively.

Sam: Okay, but to be fair, Orton was an NCAA finalist in the mile last indoor season…

Ben: True, but she was also a sixth round pick in our draft who almost wasn’t picked.

Sam: True, but I was about to pick her until someone stole her…

Sean: Birk and Orton shouldn’t be considered underrated in my mind, BUT the races from Hoj, Wayment, and Cannon definitely deserve some credit so I’ll let it pass.

Sean: Throwing out the Hail Mary on this one, but I’m going with Ohio State. They’re a wild card contender for the DMR if they can pull all of their pieces together for a single race. Julia Rizk and Abby Nichols have both run 4:42 for the mile (Rizk has also gone 9:29 for 3k). Meanwhile, Aziza Ayoub and Annie Ubbing have gone 2:09 for 800. If this group enters the BIG 10 DMR fresh and goes hard from the gun, I think they could stage an upset and/or get pulled to an NCAA qualifier. Plus, the results on their own are very good considering how invisible the Buckeyes have been in distance running recently.

Elliott: I can’t speak for the rest of the depth chart at this certain university, but NC State currently has two women both at 4:38, Dominique Clairmonte and Elly Henes. If they can put a few more pieces together, they might have a formidable DMR.

John: If I mention New Mexico here will I get chastised? They have six runners in the top 21 of the 5000 meters.

Sean: Always. Very impressive, but surely expected.

John: No doubt, but they only have runners ranked in the 5000 and the mile on the year. And Kelati and Cohen account for four of those times.

Ben: I know I keep coming back to Hoare, but I think he is the most intriguing runner in the country. What he decides to run at Nationals will have major ramifications. So the biggest question for me is how many events does he run and which ones does he pick?

Sean: I think he might end up going DMR/3k. I don’t see him moving up to 5k to challenge McDonald and I can’t see him trying to double Mile/3k either. So why not use McDonald to qualify a DMR and then use Hacker on leadoff at NCAA's? Surely they can pull together a team.

Elliott: A big question in my head right now has to be how much deeper can the men’s 800 field get? We’ve already seen Dixon run fast. Then you take a look at the guy’s behind him: Isaiah Jewett (who has run 1:15 over 600 meters this winter), Joseph White, and Jonah Koech are just a couple names who could upstage Dixon.

Ben: I think that is a great point Elliott. We haven’t really talked enough about how crazy this 800 final is shaping up to be. Two of the preseason favorites Bryce Hoppel and Robert Heppenstall have not broken 1:50 so far. Once they get rollin they will add to a seemingly never-ending list of favorites that includes *deep breath* Arop, White, Dixon, Koech, Jewett, and you could even add Carlton Orange and Vincent Crisp in there too.

Sam: Where will Colorado end up once they race? We have not seen any racing from their top athletes (i.e Klecker, Jones, Dressel, Hurta, etc.) but they always seem to show up when it counts. It will be interesting to see where they will end up when they finally race.

Sean: Colorado (and Colorado State for that matter) are big wild cards at this point since they have not done anything yet. Definitely on my list of questions too.

John: Sign me up for some more 5000's that are in the 13:30-13:40 range. I’m assuming that’s how fast we will need to see athletes run this winter, but with Colorado State and Colorado still yet to run, how many of those will we get? Day vs. McDonald vs. Klecker could shape up to be one of the best in recent history.

Elliott: Yeaaaahhh baby!

Ben: I think we need to throw Kemboi in there and if Fisher runs the 5k, oh boy, could that be one hell of a race.

John: Damn. My point exactly, we have athletes who I’m already forgetting about. Add them in and we’ve probably got an all-out race from the gun.

Sean: I could see an all-out race especially if Kemboi or Kipkoech only qualify in one event for Campbell. Otherwise, I can’t see it being beneficial for anyone to actually take the race out.

Elliott: Another question mark that we always seem to come back to has to be the Oregon men. Cooper Teare ran 3:59 this past weekend in Arkansas. Beyond that, not too many Ducks are near the top of the leaderboards right now. I understand that the season is young, but at this moment, how many ducks do you think still have a chance to qualify for Nationals? I think the DMR is still an ongoing experiment, but it will be interesting to see if anybody jumps up in individual events over the next month.

Ben: Dang, that’s a tough question. James West and Blake Haney haven’t run the mile yet, so they could get in there, but other than Teare it is looking bleak at the moment for Oregon.

Sean: I feel like I’m questioning my own question here, but I’m going to throw it out here anyways. Should/could we see an NAU DMR? Hasty and Grijalva seem like a good duo to me for 1200 and mile. Could they find an 800 and 400 leg though?

Elliott: The idea of an NAU DMR sounds amazing. My draftboard and I would definitely love to see them give it a go.

John: Lomong for 800 maybe? Basically, give the 400 to someone who won’t completely leave them behind and hope that the 1200-800-mile legs are good enough to compete?

Sean: The DMR is clearly on one of its best years with four teams already under 11 minutes (only five did so in 2018). Is it going to take sub 11 minutes to earn a spot at Nationals in the DMR?

John: I’ll say no. My guess is six/seven go under 11. The top 11 times came from this weekend. Of those teams, how many of them can add to their relay team and get faster?

Sean: So OKST, Boise State, BYU, and Villanova already got it. Stanford can definitely drop the time. New Mexico went sub 11 last year at conferences and could again in my mind. Washington is .35 seconds away so I’m going to say they can cut the time. Oregon obviously. Colorado too. That’s nine. Plus Arkansas. That’s 10. Virginia Tech is 11. Someone else could get pulled to a sub-11 minute clocking surely.

Sam: I also agree with Sean. Does Wisconsin have any 800 runners? If so, they could maybe run sub 11 with Monson on the anchor.

John: While I don’t disagree with any of this, let’s say Washington, Stanford, and Colorado get to sub-11, that’s seven teams. Do we think that Oregon can cut 17 seconds off of their DMR time? What about Penn State dropping nine seconds?

Sean: Oregon can definitely drop the time. Hull moves to anchor and runs 4:31 instead of Gehrich running 4:48. Ejore and an 800 leg can move around to match the other legs on other program. Boom, 17 seconds cut. Penn State on the other hand seems tougher. Maybe Tachinski can move up to the 1200? I’m not so sure, but I certainly wouldn’t rule out Penn State going sub 11.

Ben: What are we to make of the 800 field? Preseason favorite Sammy Watson just got beat, Denae Rivers looks unbeatable, Jazmine Fray (indoor record holder) has yet to run an open 800, and Rachel Pocratsky has only run the 1000 (twice). Will Rivers continue to distance herself or will the other favorites rise up over the next few weeks?

Sean: I’ve been thinking about the 800 a lot and I think it’s going to return to normal by NCAA's. People forget that Sabrina Southerland was the 16th seed for the 800 last year before winning the indoor national title. Would I feel confident if I was one of the favorites in 2019? Of course not. One of the big players is probably going to miss the meet. Overall though, the event will be back to normal for the most part and the majority of the favorites will rise up.

Elliott: If there is one thing we’ve learned from watching NCAA Championships, it is that nobody is guaranteed victory when the gun goes off (i.e. Isaiah Harris and Marco Arop over Michael Saruni in 2018). We’ve seen this played out in 800’s before, both indoors and outdoors on both the men’s and women’s sides. If the field normalizes as Sean thinks it will, it should be a toss-up by the time the favorites toe the line…what’s more fun than that?