Men's Way Too Early XC Preview (Part One)

It's that time of the year again. It's still too early in the summer for us to begin our preseason rankings, but it's also too late for us to completely ignore the upcoming cross country season. Regardless of what the future holds, I thought now would be a good time to put pen on paper and ramble about XC.

We've already highlighted some of the women's teams in our latest Blue Oval Podcast episode, but we'll also do a written version later in the week (and a podcast version for the men some time this month).

So without further ado, let's get into it...

Alright, let's just get this out of the way. As it stands right now, the 2020 cross country season will likely come down to a battle between Northern Arizona and BYU...again.

On paper, I like what the Lumberjacks have a bit more than the Cougars. Yes, they lose Geordie Beamish, but I think you could make the argument that NAU has seven men capable of being Top 50 runners this season. That doesn't even include Nico Young, the high school superstar who ran 7:56 for 3000 meters this past winter.

However, BYU also has a unique balance of firepower and depth. Conner Mantz is one of the top distance talents in the country, Clayson Shumway is a returning All-American and -- according to one source close to the team -- Casey Clinger has returned from his mission trip in very good shape.

Outside of those three, there are a handful of scoring options between Brandon Garnica, Boise State transfer Elijah Armstrong, steeplechase standout Matt Owens, and numerous men who are returning from their mission trips.

There are still a handful of questions about BYU which we've already talked about, but this team could very easily challenge Northern Arizona yet again if everything goes right for them.

Phew. Now that we got that out of the way, let's talk about everyone else.

I feel like people aren't giving the Tulsa men enough attention right now. They weren't the flashiest team on the track, but they gave us absolutely no reason to doubt them last cross country season. They consistently stepped up and produced on the biggest stages.

In the fall of 2020, they will return their entire top five which includes Peter Lynch and Patrick Dever who finished 11th and 13th, respectively, at the National Championships last fall. After finishing 5th at the national meet as a team in 2019, the Golden Hurricanes could easily emerge as a podium team (or maybe even a national title contender) if things go as well for them this year as they did last year.

Admittedly, you have to wonder what the rest of their top seven is going to look like in 2020. Last year's team had a pretty significant drop-off after their top five which left the 'Canes vulnerable to excessive point scoring if someone had an off day. That, however, never happened.

Although I would like to see improved depth from this team during October and November, it's hard to ignore their constant improvement and mind-blowing consistency. It feels like there are a lot of underrated teams in the NCAA this year and Tulsa is certainly one of them despite their grand success last fall.

Outside of Tulsa, I am really excited about what we could see from Oregon and Michigan this year. Both teams have the necessary pieces to make some noise at the national level and even contend for a podium spot.

Yes, I'll admit it, I'm a fan of Michigan...mainly because they made me look really good with their performance at NCAA's last year. I said that they would be one of the big breakout teams at the national meet and predicted a 6th place finish for them.

That prediction nearly came true as the Wolverines finished 7th overall at the 2019 national meet, just two points out from 6th place Stanford.

When I look at this Michigan roster, it's hard to ignore the fact that they bring back four of their top five from last year. Jack Aho has proven for two years in a row that he can peak for the National Championships, placing 35th in 2018 and then 40th in 2019. He'll be joined by Devin Meyrer who threw down a jaw-dropping 16th place finish at NCAA's last year and led the men of Big Blue throughout last fall.

Outside of those two, the rest of this lineup includes near All-American Isaac Harding, promising rising sophomore Nick Foster and reliable veterans Joost Plaetinck and Jacob Lee.

Overall, Michigan will have one of the deeper and more complete cross country lineups in the nation this year. They have peaked at the right time for two years in a row and displayed tremendous consistency last year.

As for Oregon, it's usually never a good idea to bet against the Ducks.

Cooper Teare has emerged as the elite superstar that we knew he could be, Cole Hocker looks like one of the best rising sophomores in the NCAA, Jackson Mestler has clearly elevated his fitness to another level after running 13:36 for 5000 meters this past winter, and the introduction of star freshman Evan Holland will likely give Coach Thomas an extra scoring option for his top seven.

That group -- along with a deep roster which includes Charlie Hunter, Reed Brown, Jack Yearian, Carter Christman and a few others -- has all of the right pieces to contend for a podium finish come November.

Admittedly, nearly everyone on this team will need to step up and make improvements if that goal is to become a reality, but this could be the year where the men from Eugene return to a top four finish on the national stage.

Speaking of potential podium contenders, let's briefly talk about Notre Dame.

I spoke about the Fighting Irish a couple of days ago in a separate article, but my talking points basically boiled down to the idea that Notre Dame could/should unleash all of their young superstar talents in an effort to take the NCAA by storm (especially with Yared Nuguse in his final year of eligibility).

Even if they don't unleash the full wrath of their elite recruiting classes from the past three years, I still don't see a scenario where Notre Dame isn't one of the top teams in the country this year. They hit a few bumps in the road last fall, but they still rallied to finish 8th at the National Championships.

With their entire top seven returning and a plethora of elite high school recruits still waiting for their moment to shine, I don't think it would be surprising to see the men from Notre Dame finish within the top four later this year.

That said, I have a couple of questions.

How will this team handle the national stage this year compared to last year? Will Kilrea show more consistency? Who will be this year's Dylan Jacobs? Will any incoming freshmen be redshirted? How different will the second half of this lineup be compared to last year?

If everything comes together, then this could end up being the year of Notre Dame.

* * *

Let's quickly transition to Purdue and Iona, two teams that have a lot more in common than some people may realize.

Both teams return all (or almost all) of their cross country lineups from last year. Both teams bring back two clear-cut low-sticks. Both teams had relatively young varsity squads last year. Both teams finished just outside of the top 10 at the 2019 national meet (Purdue was 11th, Iona was 12th).

People may not give a lot of attention to either of these programs in the fall of 2020, but these two teams showed us plenty of consistency last fall and will likely maintain a nice balance of firepower and depth given their expected returners.

* * *

I'm going to wrap up our Part One analysis with what may be the most interesting team in the NCAA this fall: the Arkansas Razorbacks. On paper, this team could battle for a podium spot if they get a few key breaks to go their way. However, a lot of their success this fall will depend on what happens with Amon Kemboi.

We've already talked about this on a few occasions, but SEC transfer rules suggest that Kemboi won't be eligible for competition this fall. However, some sources have informed The Stride Report that Kemboi is still expected to compete for the Razorbacks in 2020.

If the former Campbell runner is able to compete in the next few months, then this team suddenly becomes a lot more difficult to take down. Pairing an elite All-American like Kemboi next to another All-American caliber runner like Gilbert Boit should give Arkansas a lethal 1-2 punch.

Behind those two, a supporting cast of Matt Young, Emmanuel Cheboson (a transfer from Louisville) and Jacob McLeod (a transfer from Belmont) should offer outstanding consistency, scoring stability and low-stick potential.

This Arkansas team could be really good this year, but Young, Cheboson and McLeod aren't exactly All-American talents like Boit and Kemboi are -- at least not yet. They'll need to make some notable improvements if the men from Fayetteville are going to compete with the likes of BYU or NAU.

But as we saw last year, anything can happen.