Gauging Impact (Part Eight)

Our "Gauging Impact" series is back by popular demand!

...ok maybe not because of, "popular demand". I just really like writing these every summer.

In this series, we evaluate three high-level distance talents who are transferring. The goal is to figure out if an athlete's former team had a greater loss of talent from their transfer relative to the value gained by the new team that he or she is transferring to.

If that sounds complex, it's just because I'm not explaining it well.

You'll get the gist when you start reading.

As we mentioned last year, there are a few top-tier runners who we didn't mention in this edition of "Gauging Impact". That, however, is because their transfer scenarios are relatively easy to analyze.

So with that, let's begin...

NOTE: Graduate transfer scenarios (such as Ericka VanderLende) can sometimes be anticipated by certain schools/coaches. Those moves are not always a reflection of a program's ability to retain (or not retain) talent.

Last year, the biggest transfer move in the NCAA came from Dylan Jacobs who stepped away from Notre Dame and joined Tennessee as a graduate student. That switch, however, was probably the least surprising transfer move of the year.

But in 2023, the NCAA's most impactful transfer move -- Natalie Cook leaving Oklahoma State for Colorado -- was likely the most surprising.

Cook, a high school distance running phenom, came to Stillwater, Oklahoma last fall and instantly evolved into a true collegiate star. She shockingly won the Cowboy Jamboree with an upset victory and later went on to finish 7th place at the NCAA XC Championships.

And in December, Cook dropped a monster time of 15:24 for 5000 meters on the indoor oval, setting a new American U20 women's record in the process.

Of course, the Cowgirl ace later limped through the indoor track season, finishing last at the indoor national meet. As it turns out, she had sustained an injury which eventually kept her out of competition for the 2023 outdoor track season. All of that ultimately led to Cook entering the transfer portal and later venturing to Colorado.

In the eyes of our TSR writers, Cook's transfer came as a shock.

Despite her injury, the young megastar still had incredible individual success during her rookie year. And as a team, the Oklahoma State women were likely going to be the same cross country national title contenders that they were last year if Cook had stuck around.

But with Cook now in Boulder, Colorado, the Cowgirls will be without a massively important low-stick who, potentially, could have swung the national title race this fall. No, the Oklahoma State women aren't necessarily out of the 2023 national title conversation, but there are now numerous things that need to go right in order for them to win it all.

And of course, the one team that did end up with the Texas native was Colorado, a group that is now in position to compete with the Cowgirls for the national title this fall.

And that, ladies and gentlemen, is what makes this such a tricky conversation.

The Colorado women, strictly on paper, probably have more long distance talents on their 2023 cross country roster than Oklahoma State does. Not only do the Buffaloes bring back Ella Baran and Bailey Hertenstein, but they are also expected to return Emily Covert and Hannah Miniutti from injury.

Tack on transfer additions of Samree Dishon, Marlee Starliper and now Natalie Cook, and you have a group that can absolutely win NCAA gold come November.

The problem, however, is that almost every single woman who I just listed has some level of significant injury history. Baran, Dishon and debatably Hertenstein are the only ones who have proven that they can stay (mostly) healthy while in college.

Simply put, the Colorado coaching staff has assembled a 2023 roster that screams "high risk, high reward." If this team stays healthy, then they can win the national title. But history says that at least one, and maybe two, of these women may not be at 100% by the time the national meet rolls around.

In the grand scheme of things, Colorado would probably be in the national title conversation this fall even without Cook, although to a far lesser extent. And truthfully, their aim of winning team gold would have been heavily dependent on other women being fully healthy and staying in top fitness.

Cook's introduction absolutely raises the Buffaloes' ceiling (by a lot) in 2023. However, the overall success of this Colorado squad is going to depend on a variety of factors other than just her status.

And while the Oklahoma State women have their fair share of things that need to break their way, having Natalie Cook would have more firmly kept them in the national title conversation this fall than they are right now.

By that logic, I think I have come to my decision.

When Coach Sean Carlson left Notre Dame for Tennessee last summer, he was nice enough to leave behind one of the top distance-centric recruiting classes in the country. In fact, in the eyes of some, it might have been the best.

The main headline star of that rookie group was Izaiah Steury, an Indiana native who had all of the traits to be the Fighting Irish's next big superstar. And through the 2022 cross country season, Steury looked like he could eventually be that guy with a couple more years of development.

Last fall, Steury was 14th at Joe Piane, 28th at Nuttycombe, 9th at the ACC XC Championships, 9th at the Great Lakes Regional XC Championships and then 63rd at the NCAA XC Championships.

Simply put, he looked like he was going to be a true low-stick in 2023.

But then Steury remained absent from competition during the winter and spring months. And in April, the long distance standout announced that he would be transferring to Oregon.

Unlike Natalie Cook, Steury's decision to leave South Bend, Indiana for Eugene, Oregon makes sense. After all, the rising sophomore entered Notre Dame under the idea that he would be training under Coach Sean Carlson.

But now that Carlson is gone, Steury has opted to join a very young Oregon squad. Coach Jerry Schumacher's group has an incredibly bright future, one that aligns with the long-term growth of this former Fighting Irish runner.

It's hard to figure out where exactly the Notre Dame men are when it comes to their roster life cycle. This team showed tons of promise last year after finishing 5th at Nuttycombe. And in my eyes, I thought the Fighting Irish could have been podium contenders last fall.

However, a brutal postseason (relative to expectations) has muddied the waters of what this team may be capable of in 2023, even if they'll have similar personnel to work with.

The Fighting Irish men will likely field a lineup this fall that features predominately seniors, redshirt juniors and graduate students. For now, redshirt freshman Ethan Coleman is the only younger distance talent who TSR would project to crack this team's top-seven.

With a heavy veteran presence, specifically from adding three graduate transfers this summer, it feels like the Notre Dame men want to be in "win now" mode before they let their younger guys take on more scoring responsibility.

That's not necessarily a good or bad decision, but more so an observation.

Of course, by losing Steury, the Notre Dame men have one-less piece who can help them make an admittedly-ambitious run for the podium in November. Not only that, but the Fighting Irish won't have a projected low-stick to remain with the team once those elder distance talents leave the program.

Oregon, meanwhile, is currently a team of the future.

According to The Stride Report, the Ducks have landed the best men's distance-centric recruiting class in 2021 and in 2022. And frankly, it would be surprising if their group of men's rookies weren't ranked at the top yet again in 2023.

Last year's Oregon team featured almost exclusively underclassmen -- and they actually ran quite well throughout the 2022 cross country season! But despite the Ducks outperforming expectations, one of their few veterans from last fall, Aaron Bienenfeld, is out of eligibility. This, in turn, would have effectively left Oregon without an established All-American low-stick for this fall.

But with Steury now joining the Ducks, the Oregon men may have found Bienenfeld's replacement for later this year. That, of course, assumes that the incoming sophomore continues to progress how we think he will.

Over time, Steury will be joined by a mass group of elite distance talents who could eventually make a run for the podium on the grass. That likely won't be for another two to three years, but the long-term outlook for Oregon is almost entirely optimistic.

There's no easy answer to this "bigger loss vs bigger gain" conundrum. But in my eyes, the Oregon men were going to be a nationally competitive program in a few years time whether Steury was on the team or not. Notre Dame, however, could have greatly used this Indiana native for their transition between eras of their roster.

Ericka VanderLende: Bigger Gain for Notre Dame? Or Bigger Loss for Michigan?

In the fall of 2019, I remember being in awe of a true freshman who would eventually go on to finish 25th at the NCAA XC Championships. Fast forward four years, and Ericka VanderLende is now venturing from Michigan to Notre Dame as a graduate transfer.

Oh, how time flies.

VanderLende is an interesting distance talent to analyze. The Michigan native was outstanding as a true rookie on the grass, looking like "the next big thing" in NCAA cross country.

And in some ways, she has delivered on those expectations.

In other ways, not so much.

Despite the occasional "off" day, VanderLende has historically been very strong during the regular season of her cross country campaigns. Not only that, but she has never had a truly "poor" showing on the national stage, finishing 65th, 108th and 76th in her three NCAA XC Championship appearances since her All-American honor.

Yes, it's true, VanderLende has yet to return to her All-American ways since her freshman year. Instead, it's been best to describe her as a "fringe All-American" rather than a true national-caliber ace.

But for the most part, VanderLende is a high-impact scorer on the grass. She will produce low-stick results during the regular season and raise the floor of almost any team that she is on, significantly, at the national meet. Previously being a top-30 All-American also gives her some upside, too.

Last fall, the Michigan women struggled to deliver on expectations as a team, failing to find consistency within their varsity lineup. Their performances at the Cowboy Jamboree, Nuttycombe and the NCAA XC Championships left many of us at The Stride Report wanting more.

In fairness to Michigan, the Ann Arbor-based women were likely better than what their national meet result (22nd) suggested. Top scorer, Kayla Windemuller, struggled in her season finale and key scorer Katelynne Hart didn't even toe the line in Stillwater, Oklahoma.

According to TFRRS, the Michigan women lose their first, third and fourth scorers from last year's national meet top-seven, the former being VanderLende.

Simply put, the Wolverines were going to be in store for another challenging cross country season regardless of whether or not VanderLende stuck around. And even if Hart and Windemuller return to full strength in 2023, there isn't a guarantee that the Michigan women can crack the top-15 of our power rankings this fall.

But when it comes to Notre Dame, the story is a bit different.

The Fighting Irish women do lose a small handful of key names from their 2022 cross country team which placed 7th at the NCAA XC Championships. Women such as Katie Thronson, Annasophia Keller and Katie Rose Blachowicz are all out of eligibility.

The good news, however, is that Notre Dame returns most of their core scorers from last fall. Olivia Markezich and Siona Chisolm should provide excellent scoring potency and the same could be said for Erin Strzelecki who finished 54th at last year's national meet.

With a number of highly promising youngsters, as well as a fellow graduate transfer in Andrea Markezich (via Washington), the women from South Bend, Indiana seemingly have a sneaky-dangerous squad in 2023.

And now, by adding Ericka VanderLende to the mix, it feels plenty possible that this group can contend for a podium spot come November. In year where major uncertainty hangs above the heads of numerous top contenders, few graduate transfers could be more valuable to Notre Dame than her.