Florida State Winter XC Classic Preview

Tomorrow's cross country showdown in Tallahassee is set to be a big one as numerous top-ranked distance programs are scheduled to toe the line in one of the better winter XC races of the season. Below, a few of our TSR writers answered some prompts about what we could expect from a loaded field filled with top-tier competition...

Maura: The Utah State men have the most to prove in Friday's race. The Aggies were solid last fall, qualifying for the NCAA Championships where they ultimately finished 16th overall, outperforming their rank. However, from that team, they lost key veteran scorers such as Luke Beattie, James Withers, Adam Hendrickson and Dallin Farnsworth.

Flash forward to the 2021 season and the Aggies are rebuilding...and maybe even reloading. In their first race since the 2020 indoor track season, the Aggies took down a strong group from Southern Utah at the Dixie State Invitational, a team that they will face yet again on Friday.

Caleb Garnica, Haydon Cooper and Darren Harman have enough experience to be reliable scorers while Camren Todd appears to be their new front-runner. The Utah State men had a strong and encouraging start from that group, but Friday's race will give them a chance to prove to the rest of the NCAA that they are the real deal.

Garrett: I wanted to talk about a team other than Syracuse, but as I looked through the entries, I found myself continuously coming back to the Orange. They were expected to be a nationally competitive squad this past fall and after some limited racing during September and most of October, they went into the ACC Championships and struggled in a major way. That forced us to reevaluate just how good we think this squad is.

However, Aidan Tooker is listed in the entries for Friday's race and that is huge from a scoring perspective. If Tooker can be a top scorer, if Dragon can replicate his ACC performance, if Trojan can run to the standard that we think he can, and if the rest of their lineup can pull their weight, then the Syracuse men may be able to show the NCAA that their conference finish this past fall was just a fluke.

Eric: I think it has to be Florida State. This is their home course and the future site of the NCAA Championships later this year (in the fall). This is a huge opportunity to face top-tier competition on the same course that they'll be trying to qualify for in November.

FSU also came out flat at the ACC Championships this past fall, finishing a disappointing 9th place overall despite some of us thinking that they were better than that.

However, thanks to a four-month layoff, the Florida State men appear to be a different team. They added two valuable transfers in Ahmed Muhumed (via Boise State) and Adriaan Wildschutt (via Coastal Carolina) who have the collective potential to vault the 'Noles into a "dark horse" contender category alongside new teammates Paul Stafford, Gabriel Curtis, Jacob Holmes and Caleb Pottorff.

With Muhumed and Wildshcutt now in this lineup, the 'Noles have a chance to surprise a few teams on Friday. However, the time for speculation is now done. Tomorrow's race will be their Florida State's chance to prove that their new additions are enough to make them a top-ranked program.

Maura: Alek Parsons, Cole Sprout, Callum Bolger, Thomas Boyden, Charles Hicks

Garrett: Alek Parsons, Cole Sprout, Callum Bolger, Devin Hart, Michael Vernau

Eric: Alek Parsons, Cole Sprout, Callum Bolger, Thomas Boyden, Michael Vernau

Maura: This is a hard argument to make. In my opinion, the Syracuse men were not strong enough during the abbreviated fall 2020 cross country season to help them earn a bid to the national meet.

Yes, the Orange won two of their three meets during the fall, but they were competing against teams that they were expected to beat easily. Placing 6th at the ACC Championships significantly hurt their chances of a national bid given that they lost to teams who they would have usually beaten in any given year.

Joe Dragon is a reliable front-runner, but behind him, the next four scorers could change on any given day. We also don’t know how Tooker will perform in his long-awaited return. This squad would need to put together a strong race against powerhouse programs like Colorado, Stanford and Iowa State if they were going to emerge in the top-three.

Based on what I have said above, I believe it will be difficult for the Orange to earn a top-three finish on Friday. Plus, even if they did, I think it would take more than one good race to make up for their ACC performance.

Garrett: I’m very torn. If Syracuse were to somehow finish in the top-three of Friday’s race, then that means they would have defeated either Colorado, Iowa State, Stanford and/or Wake Forest. That is truthfully a difficult scenario to imagine, but if Syracuse were to have a race like that, then I think they could make an argument for a national bid...if they later went to an additional meet and had another great performance there.

So, in other words, a great race this Friday won’t completely lock the Orange into a national qualifying position. However, I think it will certainly help their national qualifying chances in the big picture. They are scheduled to come back to Florida State in early March for one last cross country race before the national meet.

Eric: I don't think this one race will vault the ‘Cuse into the NCAA Championships, regardless of where they finish. That said, this race has the ability to position the Orange for a future qualifying spot if they were to finish in the top-three. However, if I were the committee, I would have to see another impressive outing before I would deem them worthy of a bid to Stillwater, Oklahoma.

Maura: The Wake Forest Demon Deacons were a very solid team during the abbreviated fall 2020 cross country season. Carter Coughlin, Jack Tiernan and Jonathan Velasco all did an outstanding job of stepping up and scoring in a major way without front-runner Zach Facioni.

The Demon Deacons earned a remarkable 3rd place finish at the ACC XC Championships despite Tiernan not having his best race. Now, with Facioni back in their lineup, the Wake Forest men have the potential to have some of the best firepower in this field.

Friday's race will be chance for this rising team to compete against some of the nation’s best, not just in the ACC.

Garrett: I am super excited to see the Florida State men race. This is a completely revamped squad which now has two additional front-runners in Adriaan Wildschutt and Ahmed Muhumed -- two names who the ‘Noles picked up this past winter offseason.

Pairing those two next to Stafford theoretically gives this team a lot of scoring potency and takes some scoring pressure off of the second-half of this lineup. The entire dynamic of this lineup has changed in a few short months and that has me very excited to see what they’ll be bringing to the table during Friday’s race.

Eric: I think it's got to be the Volunteers. They finished a modest 4th at the SEC Championships, but they might be better than that. They seem to finally have the pieces necessary to be a factor in a field like this.

Mike Griffin has proven to be a sneaky-good freshman, having already run 8:18 for 3000 meters. The Vols also return the dynamic duo of Alex Crigger and Karl Theissen and have lesser known, but highly impactful pieces, in Georde Goodwyn and Riley Buchholz who can hold this team together.

There's no better time to be on Rocky Top than right now as Tennessee is surely aiming to put together a performance that was better than what we saw at the SEC XC Championships.

Maura: Florida State. The Seminoles put up respectable finishes this past fall, earning a 3rd place finish at both the FSU Invitational and the Blazer Classic. However, they struggled at the ACC Championships with a 9th place performance. These men are definitely capable of earning a better finish on their home course and it helps that they have two new front-runners who can lead their squad. Muhumed and Wildschutt aren't superstars who will garner a ton of attention from your casual distance running fan, but they are two highly impactful names.

Garrett: Tennessee. They’re a lot better than some people realize and as Eric mentioned, a few of their younger runners have made quiet improvements as of late. They have some respectable depth and a few veterans who can at least stick around with some of the better names in this field.

Will they be amongst the top-five teams on Friday? No, I don’t think so, but I don’t see a ton of flaws within this group and I think they are situated to run incredibly well in this field.

Eric: Syracuse. After their 6th place finish at the ACC Championships, it's understandable if nobody is expecting anything from them. However, that could certainly be motivation for them during Friday's race. With Tooker back in this lineup and a few other names set to have better performances, the Orange could surprise a few people.

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Garrett: I think the Colorado women could make things interesting given how much depth they have. I also think Rachel McArthur has the potential to match the performance of one of Stanford's low-sticks.

Even so, the women from Palo Alto just have too much potential firepower and scoring potency. I could see the Cardinal women winning by 25 points, but there is also a world where that gap between them and the next-best team grows excessively large, with Stanford effectively running up the score.

Maura: Stanford has a formidable lineup highlighted by Ella Doanghu, Jessica Lawson, Julia Heymach, Jordan Oakes, star freshman Zofia Dudek, recent transfer Aubrey Roberts and a few other talented names. All of those women make the Cardinal the clear favorites.

The experience, talent and depth that Stanford has should give them the necessary firepower to take down the women of Colorado who also bode a strong group of women. Overall, I think the Cardinal women will win this race by 31 points.

Eric: Stanford is the clear favorite and I’m picking Colorado to finish 2nd overall. The Buffaloes are strong, but I don't like their top-five as much as Stanford’s. I'm not sold on who the fourth and fifth runners for Colorado will be as those positions could potentially feature any combination of Annie Hill, Kaitlyn Barthell, Holly Bent or Emily Covert.

It's hard to bet against all of the weapons that the women from Palo Alto have, so I'll join Garrett and pick them to win by 25 points.

Garrett: Rachel McArthur, Abby Nichols, Emily Covert, Holly Bent, Kaitlyn Barthell

Maura: Rachel McArthur, Abby Nichols, Holly Bent, Emily Covert, Annie Hill

Eric: Rachel McArthur, Abby Nichols, Holly Bent, Kaitlyn Barthell, Emily Covert

Maura: It has to be the Oklahoma State women. Taylor Roe and Gabby Hentemann enjoyed huge breakout cross country seasons in the fall and have already started out strong on the indoor oval. Roe could challenge for a top-five finish on Friday if she is in the same shape that she was in this past October.

However, the real questions for the Cowgirls are: How will Molly Born perform? Will a healthy Taylor Somers toe the line?

Born and Somers finished 16th and 18th, respectively, at the 2019 NCAA XC Championships and we expected them to be some of the nation's best scorers this past fall. Of course, that wasn't the case as Born never raced and Somers struggled to rebound from an injury, leaving well outside of the top finishers.

Oklahoma State can be a great squad, but their success will hinge on how Born and Somers perform in Friday's race.

Garrett: I have to agree with Maura. While I certainly have a ton of questions about Iowa State, Notre Dame and Syracuse, no team in the NCAA has left us with more uncertainty than Oklahoma State.

Is Taylor Somers back at (or near) 100% fitness? How will Molly Born fare after not racing this past fall? If the combination of Roe-Hentemann-Borm-Somers is near full strength, where does that place the Cowgirls in this field? How much of an issue will their fifth scorer be?

We have so many questions when it comes to the women from Stillwater, Oklahoma, but I think we’ll get most of our answers on Friday.

Eric: Oklahoma State is the trendy pick as they were easily the biggest question mark from this past fall. However, I’m taking another team from the BIG 12: Iowa State.

They looked very strong this past fall thanks to low-stick Callie Logue and the solid contributions that we saw from freshmen Breena Cohoon and Grace Dickel. Remember, this is a team that earned a commanding win over Texas in a top-heavy field by 20 points.

However, can anyone remember the 2019 team that failed to qualify for the NCAA Championships? I know, I know, that's too far back, but this team isn't dramatically different in terms of personnel. The Cyclones didn't really face much competition this past fall and we don't really know how they stack up relative to the rest of the NCAA. Luckily, Friday's race should give us plenty of clarity.

Maura: Notre Dame needs something big happen at the FSU Winter Classic this Friday to be in consideration for a bid to the national meet. The Fighting Irish easily won their first two races during the abbreviated fall 2020 season, but dropped down to a tie for 5th place at the ACC Championships, ultimately placing 6th on a tie-breaking loss to North Carolina.

From their ACC XC Championship lineup, only three of their top-five are entered for this weekend’s race. That trio features Maddy Denner, Olivia Markezich and Erin Strzelecki.

Maddy Denner, who we had originally ranked inside our Top 50 for the fall season, did not perform to the potential that we know she is capable of. When she's at her best, she could be a top-five finisher in this field.

Despite not having a few key scorers, the Fighting Irish women will need a big performance from not just Denner, but their entire supporting cast, in order to give themselves any shot at qualifying for the national meet later this season.

Garrett: You can pretty much make an argument for Duke, Notre Dame or Syracuse. I think Syracuse finished too poorly at the ACC Championships (8th) for the committee to realistically select them to Nationals, although Duke finishing 4th and Notre Dame finishing 6th (tied with UNC for 5th) at the ACC met keeps both teams in the national qualifying conversation if they run well enough on Friday.

Eric: Did anyone else remember that Tennessee was absent from the SEC XC Championships this past fall? I know it didn't necessarily hurt their national qualifying chances, but they missed out on an opportunity to make a strong impression against some pretty good teams.

The Lady Vols can use this meet as a chance to “make up” for their lack of racing in Baton Rouge this past fall and the end result could be beneficial. Even a middle of the pack performance in Friday's race could peak the interest of the selection committee depending on who they beat.

Maura: Duke. I really like the potential of these women after they earned a 4th place finish at the ACC XC Championships. Michaela Reinhart has turned into a reliable front-runner, especially after posting a 4th place finish at the ACC meet. Sophomore Samantha Schadler gained valuable experience during her freshman year and was consistent in her two races this past fall. If the Blue Devils replicate their conference performance this weekend and avoid significant gaps within their top-five, then they could surprise some teams in Florida.

Garrett: West Virginia. The Mountaineers have been a respectable program for the past few years. They finished 3rd at the 2019 BIG 12 XC Championships, four points behind the winners, and most recently finished 3rd at the 2020 BIG 12 XC Championships, finishing only four points behind runner-up Texas.

I think the Mountaineers have a respectable group in 2021 with a handful of women who can offer scoring stability in the top-half of their lineup (i.e. Ceili McCabe, Katherine Dowie, Charlotte Wood and Hayley Jackson). Keep in mind that West Virginia didn’t have Hayley Jackson at the BIG 12 Championships this past fall.

Eric: Utah State. They have already raced once this season, taking home a victory over California Baptist, Utah Valley and others. I’m not saying that Utah State is going to finish in the top-three, but they always seem to do well at Paul Short when they make the trek to Bethlehem during a normal cross country season. So, why would this trip to Tallahassee be any different?

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