Five Things to Watch: 2023 Stanford Invitational

One of the first articles ever published on this site was about the Stanford Invitational. The distance-centric meet introduces the outdoor track season to the month of April by allowing many west coast stars to kick-off their seasons after the east coast athletes were able to do the same at the Raleigh Relays.

This year's version of the Stanford Invitational feels like it's just as stacked as it has been in the past. And admittedly, it would be impossible to cover every top talent in every distance event. That's why we have highlighted "Five Things to Watch" for the showdown in Palo Alto, California this past Friday and Saturday...

Ladies and gentlemen...it's finally happening. Northern Arizona superstar Drew Bosley is finally moving up to the 10,000 meters, an event he'll contest on Friday night.

Everything about Drew Bosley screams "10k runner". The Lumberjack ace is clearly at his best the longer the distance becomes, he thrived over 10,000 meters at the NCAA XC Championships and is part of a program known for developing elite 10k talents.

Few men fit this distance better than Drew Bosley does. Of course, trying to figure out exactly how good he'll be over 25 laps relative to his competition is a challenge, mainly because we don't have any data about him for this event.

If the pace stays quick throughout the majority of the race, then that would theoretically favor Bosley who is known for his of aggressive front-running tactics. No, I'm not entirely sure he will be the one to really make things fast early-on (it could be), but this field is too stacked for the final time to not be under 28:10.

In fact, it'll probably threaten the 28-minute barrier.

Bosley, in my mind, will have four main competitors who will challenge him for top collegiate honors. Two of those men come from the same school. I am, of course, referring to the Stanford duo of Ky Robinson and Charles Hicks.

Both Cardinal distance talents are coming off of tough ends to their 2023 indoor track seasons. Robinson started off the season on absolute fire, although a somewhat quiet 5k/3k double at the NCAA Indoor Championships left us wanting so much more.

Hicks, meanwhile, got slightly better as the season went on, but he still wasn't his same dominant self over 5000 meters as he was last year in the 3k or this past fall on the grass.

But Hicks is arguably at his best over 10,000 meters, earning 6th place All-American honors in that event at last year's outdoor national meet and running a 27:40 PR for the distance earlier that year. And of course, we can't forget that he's the cross country national champion, winning gold over the 10k distance on the grass.

Is Hicks in the same shape as he was at the end of the fall? Or in the same shape as he was last year? Recent signs suggest no, but it's clear that this west coast star is better on the outdoor oval and when the races get longer.

Also, it's not like running 13:22 (5k) this past winter and placing 9th at the indoor national meet is a "bad" season.

For Robinson, it's simply a matter of how he will rebound. An exhausting schedule seemingly came back to hurt the Stanford ace earlier this month in Albuquerque. That's only speculation from an outsider's point of view, but now the Aussie runner will return to the track. And truthfully, the 10k may also be his best distance, holding a 27:44 PR from last summer's Commonwealth Games.

Will both of these men be factors in this field and run fast? Yes, most likely. Will one of them at least have a shot at the overall win / top collegiate honors? Absolutely.

I'm just not sure where they're at for the 10k relative to past seasons.

We also need to talk about Victor Kiprop, a guy who is far better on the outdoor oval than the indoor oval (which is not to suggest that he's bad during the winter months).

The Alabama star was undefeated leading up to the NCAA XC Championships this past fall. He clearly gets better as the racing distance gets longer and he won the Stanford Invite 10k last year in a time of 28:15.

Kiprop is relentless at this distance and he's also shown some subtle improvements in his turnover as of late. The Crimson Tide ace split 3:56 on Alabama's DMR this past winter despite only owning a 4:02 mile PR (and a 3:40 PR for 1500 meters).

There is a legitimate world where Kiprop wins this race, especially if the final time is near/around what he ran last year.

The final collegiate, in my eyes, who could win this race is Alex Maier. The often-underappreciated Oklahoma State was the runner-up in this event last spring at the outdoor national meet and has, generally speaking, been pretty darn consistent.

In terms of tactics and positioning, Maier is going to be one of the smarter guys in this field. If you rewatch his two efforts at the indoor national meet earlier this month, you'll see a lot poise and a lot of (good) restraint.

It feels somewhat safe to say that Maier is at his best over 10,000 meters, although we've been saying that for pretty much every collegiate so far. But as long as this Cowboy standout is as fit as his competitors, and he seemingly is, then I don't see why he couldn't come away with the victory.

Is there a world where Brian Fay (Washington) or Patrick Kiprop (Arkansas) find themselves in the mix? Yes, absolutely. Fay is, without question, the most dynamic runner in this field while Kiprop is just as much of an aerobic-centric runner as Bosley is. The Razorback standout should (theoretically) thrive with an honest pace, especially after showing tactical improvements during the winter months.

Fay has run 28:22 over 10,000 meters and there's a very good chance that he runs a PR. But his ceiling seemingly reaches its peak around the 3k and 5k distances. If this race is a bit more tactical, then the Husky star should absolutely be in contention to win -- but that doesn't feel super likely in my eyes.

Other names to watch include Devin Hart (Stanford), Scott Beattie (Tulsa), Bob Liking (Wisconsin) and Charlie Sweeney (Colorado).

The women's 1500 meters at the Stanford Invite is set to be an absolute thriller as there are realistically four to five distance stars who could take home the win. Let's break them all down, shall we?

It's hard to say for sure who is the "favorite" in this field. However, I do think it will come down to Mia Barnett (UCLA) and Simone Plourde (Utah).

Barnett, the recent transfer from Virginia, had a strong indoor track season, although not quite as strong as her freshman winter campaign. Even so, she ran a 4:34 mile time, helped her Bruin teammates earn All-American honors in the DMR and opened up this outdoor track season with a 4:14 mark over 1500 meters (although her PR sits at 4:11).

On paper, it seems pretty fair to say that Barnett is the best true miler in this field. Despite her youth, she is very consistent and has a still-improving understanding of tactical nuances. This also won't be her first time in a top-level 1500 meter field which is not something I can say about a few of these other women.

However, in terms of raw overall fitness, it's hard to deny the fact that Plourde has been the best in that area relative to her competitors this weekend.

The Utah distance ace has been primarily viewed as a miler over the last few seasons, but that changed during the winter months. After a 2022 cross country season where Plourde's aerobic strength took a massive jump, she was able to blend that fitness with her mile speed to become an outstanding 3k runner.

And just how good was she?

Well, Plourde would end up running a huge 8:53 (3k) PR last month, giving her a massive regular season win, a spot on the national stage and effectively a 4th place All-American finish in that event at the NCAA Indoor Championships.

The collegiate "favorite" in this race is more about preference than it is about raw times and historical results. If you prefer proven top-level fitness and momentum, then you'll like lean towards Plourde. If you prefer consistency and event specialization, then you'll probably side with Barnett.

Truthfully, I don't think there's a wrong answer.

But if neither of those ladies capture your attention enough, then I would suggest you review the resumes of the Colorado women, specifically Bailey Hertenstein and Ella Baran.

I have said this countless times before. I sound like a broken record and I'm sure everyone at Indiana and Colorado are tired of me saying it...but Bailey Hertenstein is a 5k runner. Not a miler. And truthfully, I don't think there's too much of an argument.

The Buffalo veteran was 5th at the NCAA XC Championships this past fall, won the PAC-12 individual title that same season and owns a 15:38 (5k) personal best despite only contesting that event four total times throughout her career!

I will die on this hill that Hertenstein needs to consistently move up in distance beyond 3000 meters. Of course, this isn't to say that she isn't a great miler/1500 meter runner, either! With personal bests of 4:14 (1500) and 4:35 (mile), as well as a massive jump up in fitness last fall, it's hard to not view this former Indiana runner as a major factor in this field.

As for teammate Ella Baran, I would argue that the former D3 superstar is also better over the longer distances. However, I also don't think we've been able to fully see this Colorado graduate student truly attack the mile or the 1500 meters in any legitimate way since her recent rise.

With personal bests of 8:57 (3k) and 15:33 (5k) this past winter, it's clear that Baran is only building on the incredible momentum of her 2022 cross country season much in the same way that Simone Plourde has.

But Baran's mile PR sits at "only" 4:40 from the winter of 2022 and her fastest 1500 meter time is currently 4:19. Will that latter mark drop this weekend? Yes, almost definitely. Will it drop by a substantial amount? Yes, I would think so. Will she have enough to upset the likes of Barnett, Plourde and this field? Well...I'm not sure I'm there yet.

New Mexico veteran Abbe Goldstein is an interesting name to monitor. Believe it or not, she actually holds the fastest known 1500 meter PR of any collegiate/woman in this field. The Harvard-turned-New Mexico veteran ran 4:10 for the metric mile unattached in May of 2021.

The Pennsylvania native is also coming off of a 4:34 mile PR from a little under a month and a half ago, meaning that she has some strong momentum coming into this race. And if her history of success in this event is any indication, then Goldstein could end up winning this whole thing.

Of course, not seeing her race against collegiates since last fall makes my final predictions that much more challenging to craft.

Truthfully, I would say that every collegiate in this field has a chance to be competitive and crack the top-five. Sure, I would say that for some more than others, but there is a lot of steady depth.

Keep an eye on Billah Jepkirui. The Oklahoma State rookie from Kenya has had a very strong freshman campaign so far and could only get better now that she is on the indoor oval. And with a rumored 4:11 (1500) PR, this Cowgirl ace could be due for a big-time result.

Last year, all of the attention in the women's steeplechase went to BYU star Courtney Wayment -- and rightfully so! She did, after all, become the national champion in the event while running a new NCAA record.

But quietly behind Wayment was a rising distance talent from Yale. Her name was Kayley DeLay and she happened to finish runner-up in the steeplechase at the 2022 NCAA Outdoor Championships. And her time? 9:25, good enough for NCAA #3 all-time in that event.

DeLay has since ventured to the University of Washington to complete the rest of her collegiate eligibility -- a lone outdoor track season this spring. And by reentering collegiate competition, it feels like DeLay has to be the national title favorite in the steeplechase by default...right?

We probably shouldn't expect DeLay to be running under 9:30 in the steeplechase this weekend, but it is fair to highlight her recent momentum. While running unattached this past winter, DeLay posted significant personal bests of 4:35 (mile) and 8:58 (3k), each coming in the month of February.

There are a lot of talented women in this steeplechase field at the Stanford Invitational. But while the field is deep, it's not necessarily top-heavy, meaning that DeLay should have a fairly clear win towards an overall victory.

Of course, how fast she will run remains a different question.

Pick your poison, this field has a variety of west coast middle distance talents who each have very good arguments to selected as the winner in my/your final predictions.

The names that everyone will gravitate to each come from Washington. I am, of course, referring to Nathan Green and Sam Ellis, a pair of Huskies who each ran 3:52 and 3:53 in the mile this past winter. Green would later go on to run 1:46.99 (800) while Ellis ran 1:46.77 (800) and 2:18.48 (1k).

On paper, it's hard to envision a scenario where one of these two men isn't the overall winner. Green is the better miler by a second, but Ellis has been on fire as of late. His middle distance marks are truly elite and the best in the field.

It's easy to forget about Ellis, the former Princeton runner, given that he didn't have any indoor track eligibility this past winter, but his resume is simply the most complete.

No, I'm not saying that either of these men are unbeatable, but they should certainly be favored...at least in my eyes they should.

However, if anyone is going to take down the men in purple and gold, it'll likely be Elliott Cook of Oregon. The dynamic Duck talent is coming off of a fantastic indoor track season where her ran 1:46.93 (800) and 3:55 (mile), ultimately earning 7th place All-American honors in the mile.

But in a field where at least one or two guys are going to run 1:46 for this distance, it's fair to suggest that Cook is going to need to run a personal best to take home the win. But if he does, then the Washington men shouldn't feel too comfortable. Cook hasn't fully refined his tactics and his racing approach at the highest level, but he's certainly getting much better in that area.

Abdullahi Hassan is another guy who I'll be watching very closely in this race.

Truthfully, I just can't figure out this Wisconsin middle distance star. The Canadian half-miler ran 1:47 for the distance as a prep runner, emerging as a phenom above the northern American border.

Since then, Hassan has run well, putting together a phenomenal freshman campaign where he ran 1:46 over 800 meters (twice) in the summer of 2021.

Running numerous 1:47 (800) marks over the last year and a half is plenty impressive. But Hassan will also need to return to his rookie form if he wants a shot at the win this weekend. And tactically, the Badger ace is much better in some races than others.

Hassan split 48 seconds through the first 400 meters of his 800 meter leg in the DMR at the NCAA Indoor Championships earlier this month. He eventually settled for a full 1:47 split. If the Wisconsin runner decides to implement another aggressive front-running approach this weekend, then how unrealistic is a 1:45 winning time for someone in this field?

As for everyone else, there are subtly great signs from guys Lorenz Herrmann (Idaho), Jacob Roden (North Dakota), Matthew Larkin (New Mexico), Senzo Sokhela (Westmont) and Juan Diego Castro (Oklahoma State).

All of those men have been quietly excellent as of late or simply haven't done anything to hurt their stock going into the spring months.

Between West Virginia's Ceili McCabe and Oklahoma State's Taylor Roe, how many collegiate 5k races on the track do you think these two veterans have combined?

Maybe 15? 16?

Even 17 or 18 races?

Well, the actual number is four. McCabe has never toed the line for a collegiate 5k race on the track before and Roe had never run a 5k on the track until last spring. And yet, it feels safe to say that these two women are the class of this field.

McCabe was exceptional this past winter, producing fireworks in the mile (4:33) and the 3k (8:50). And on the grass, she's been fantastic as well. Everything about her resume suggests that, at the very least, she'll run under 15:40 for 5000 meters.

And truthfully, a sub-15:30 mark is probably in the cards for her as well.

But after that, it's impossible to know what a newcomer to this event can truly do. McCabe is certainly fit enough to win this race, but she's inexperienced and will be racing with a handful of more proven talents.

Roe, for instance, finished 3rd in this event at the 2022 NCAA Outdoor Championships. She's run this race four times throughout her career and owns a 15:21 personal best. Tactically, I feel comfortable calling her the best distance talent in this field.

On paper, the Oklahoma State veteran is the full package over 5000 meters. And given how strong she looked at the NCAA Indoor Championships a few weeks ago, it's hard not to pick Roe for the win.

But here's another thing...Roe is entered in the 10k (heat two).

Seeing Roe race a 10k would be incredibly fascinating, especially since that event is far more wide-open as far as national titles go compared to the 5k. If she's able to be competitive in that event, then the 5k may have to take a backseat.

Of course, Roe can't race both events given the meet schedule. So if she does enter the 5k, then the 10k will be out of play for her...at least for this weekend.

Let's move to Utah ace Emily Venters who is on absolute fire right now, running a 15:20 (5k) personal best towards the latter-half of the indoor track season. She later finished 5th in that event at the indoor national meet.

And much like Roe, she is also entered in the 10k.

Venters has never been so dangerous. Her times, postseason performances and experience make her a name more than capable of taking down Roe and McCabe. There also aren't too many women in this field who thrive off of seasonal momentum like Venters does.

Between McCabe, Roe and Venters, you could convince me that any of those three women will win. I'll go with Roe given how all-around excellent she is, but I don't feel entirely confident when saying that.

However, over 80% of this field probably doesn't like me right now, mainly because these 5k entries are STACKED. The amount of depth behind Roe, McCabe and Venters could make for an unreal amount of women scaring the 15:40 (5k) barrier.

Stanford's Zofia Dudek has a ton of raw talent and seemingly does well in aggressively-paced, something we could see this weekend.

Washington's Kayley DeLay has run 15:36 in this event before and you could argue that she's even better now than when she ran that mark.

Oregon State's Kaylee Mitchell and Grace Fetherstonhaugh are arguably the most dangerous when we don't list them high enough in our predictions.

Utah's Simone Plourde probably had a top-three indoor track season of all of the women in this field (she is also running in the 1500 meters).

Aubrey Frentheway (BYU), Cailie Logue (Iowa State) and Isabel Van Camp (Arkansas) are usually reliable veterans who can absolutely crack the top-five (collegiately) this weekend if certain women aren't careful.

I'll admit, it feels like ending our analysis here would be insulting to so many of the other women in this field who weren't highlighted. Of course, if we kept going, then this article would never end.

*Assumes all runners will contest the race(s) that they are entered in completely fresh.

*Predictions only include attached collegiates only.