Five Things to Watch: 2023 Razorback Invitational

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I absolutely love this field. It has a diverse group of middle distance standouts, each with unique narratives and various race styles. I have no idea if this mix of names will be conducive to a fast race, but I do think it will be wildly entertaining!

I would imagine that the Iowa State duo of Jason Gomez and Cebastian Gentil are going to be viewed as the favorites in this race. And truthfully, I think you could make the argument for either of them to win.

Gomez has proven to be more talented and has had greater national-caliber success in comparison to Gentil. He holds a 1:46 (800) personal best and was 4th in the half-mile at last year's outdoor national meet.

On paper, he seems like the obvious choice.

But I can't shake Gomez's 2022 winter campaign from my head, even if he was flat-out phenomenal during the spring months. He has only completed two races this season -- a 600 meter effort run in a quick time of 1:17 and a 4x400 meter relay appearance -- but he has recorded DNF results (likely acting as a pacer) in his other showings.

A 1:17 mark over 600 meters is pretty fast, but this is also someone who ran 2:21 for 1000 meters in December of 2021 before struggling the rest of the season.

At the same time, I'm being extremely unfair. Gomez rebounded beautifully last spring and has had national-caliber success on the indoor oval before. It's far more likely that he posts a great performance this weekend than not.

We then come to Gentil, the rising Cyclone talent who ran 1:46 (800) during the 2022 outdoor track season and eventually qualified for the national meet. His consistency is improving quite a bit and he's already run 1:47 this winter (back in early December).

If Gentil still has some untapped upside, then there's a chance that he could get the edge over Gomez in this weekend's race, even if his teammate is operating at (or near) 100%. The Rhode Island native also feels like a fairly safe bet to run well. In this kind of field, I would be surprised if he didn't dip under 1:48 again.

Meanwhile, Sebastian Fernandez (BYU) will be looking to make a statement this weekend.

The unexpected superstar from last spring stunned the country with a converted 1:46 mark over 800 meters during the 2022 outdoor track season. He qualified for the outdoor national meet and was easily one of the biggest breakout stars of the year (even if he was technically considered as a freshman).

Fernandez has already run a converted 1:48 mark from altitude this season. He's clearly talented enough to be competitive in this field, but I also have a few questions for him as he enters Saturday's contest.

How effectively will he translate his outdoor track success to the indoor oval? How much will his inexperience on the indoor track, specifically at this level, play a role? How will Fernandez perform when he comes down from altitude? How much better will he be tactically in a different setting?

None of those questions are being posed to suggest that Fernandez will run poorly this weekend. There's actually a very good chance that he comes away with the overall victory. But even after a fantastic breakout season last spring, I think it's fair to still have some questions about him.

We now move to Arkansas' Leroy Russell III, arguably the most underrated half-miler in the NCAA right now. I say that because this Razorback ace owns a personal best of 1:47.39 for 800 meters which he ran last spring. Not only that, but this is also a guy who has run 1:47 on the indoor oval before -- on this same track, no less.

In terms of raw talent, Russell is arguably just as good as the other men who I have mentioned. And yet, at the same time, his tactics have left us something to be desired.

He ran well at the SEC Outdoor Championships to place 5th overall in a loaded 800 meter field. However, he hasn't been super consistent in a handful of other high-level settings since he truly broke out.

Saturday will be a tremendous opportunity for Russell to prove that he has cleaned up a few things and is capable of being a consistent upper-tier threat.

I'll admit, I was pretty surprised to see Florida's Sam Austin and Stanford's John Lester in heat five and not in the fastest heat. That didn't make sense, mainly because Arkansas' Ricardo Banks has never run faster than 1:49 before.

It's true, Banks could very easily be a pacer, but with only five total collegiates and a pro athlete (Jaymes Dennison) in this field, I don't know why Austin wasn't included when there was seemingly space available.

Regardless, I think this could be a big year for Sam Austin. As a true freshman, this guy qualified for the indoor national meet, ran 1:47 multiple times throughout the winter and spring months and also finished 3rd in the 800 meters at last year's SEC Indoor Championships.

This will be Austin's season debut. And although he isn't listed in the hot heat, having Stanford's John Lester -- who just ran a 3:58 mile PR and owns a 1:47 (800) personal best from high school -- should allow him to at least get close to breaking 1:48.

Lester, however, will not go away easily. He is a very intelligent racer who was fairly consistent on the indoor oval in the 800 meters last winter. Tactically, this Cardinal sophomore can be a problem.

The women's 800 meters may be the most top-heavy middle or long distance field of this meet...depending on how you feel about the men's 3000 meters.

If this race goes out fast enough, then I think it's fair to suggest that someone could run under 2:01 for 800 meters. I don't necessarily think it's likely to happen, but I wouldn't exactly be shocked, either.

It feels fairly obvious that Oklahoma State's Gabija Galvydyte is the favorite in this field. The Cowgirl star owns a 2:01 personal best for the half-mile, finished 3rd at the outdoor national meet in the same event, had a quietly impressive 2022 cross country season and started her 2023 indoor track season off a monster 4:32 mile PR.

In terms of raw fitness, few women are better than Galydyte is right now. She has tremendous range, she's tactically sound and her momentum is at an all-time high. And while she may still have to prove herself a bit more on the indoor oval, I would be surprised if this Lithuanian middle distance star didn't win on Saturday.

But admittedly, that feels like a bold statement when you consider some of the other women in this field, including Stanford's Roisin Willis.

The Cardinal rookie owns a 1:59 personal best over 800 meters and won the U20 title in that event this past summer. She already started off her indoor track season with a strong 53.65 mark in the 400 meters at the UW Preview (for the win) two weeks ago.

That early-season mark doesn't necessarily mean a ton for Willis' future goals in the 800 meters, but it does show us that she's a) fit and that she b) is comfortable racing against top collegiates.

Even so, this is going to be one of the most competitive half-mile fields that Willis has ever faced, specifically on the indoor oval. While some of these women may not have personal bests as fast as hers, they are (theoretically) more refined as racers.

But...is that even going to matter?

It's extremely realistic to think that Willis could run 2:01 this weekend. And if that happens, then I don't think anyone is going to be shocked if she's at the top of the results.

In other words, can this true freshman simply rely on her raw fitness to get her through this race? Not many women can do that, but...she might be able to.

We then have the Florida duo of Gabrielle Wilkinson and Imogen Barrett.

Wilkinson is an interesting name. Historically, when she's at her best, she is one of the last people who I would ever want to race against. However, at the same time, the Gator star has had some moments of streaky inconsistency.

The middle distance star was fairly underwhelming on the indoor oval last winter. And although she rallied beautifully in the spring, posting a time of 2:02 for 800 meters, Wilkinson faded to the dreaded 9th place spot at the outdoor national meet (in the finals) in the same event.

But let's be clear about something: Wilkinson is still a major threat.

A flukey race in the 800 meter finals shouldn't take away from how good she was throughout last spring. This is also someone who has run 2:01 (800) and 4:14 (1500) before. She also ran 2:44 for 1000 meters two weekends ago!

I don't know if Wilkinson would be my first pick to win this race, but I don't know if I would necessarily call it an upset if she did secure gold. When she's racing at her peak, she may be just as good as anyone else in this field.

As for Imogen Barrett, I love that she is continuing to attack the 800 meters after opening her season with a 2:04 half-mile effort. If this field can drag her to a fast enough time, preferably in the 2:03 range, then this Aussie middle distance talent will likely have a fairly comfortable spot to this year's indoor national meet.

I still remain a proponent of Barrett attacking the mile at the NCAA Indoor Championships over the 800 meters, but I'm just some guy behind a computer...

But after her, things get a bit confusing.

BYU's Alena Ellsworth is entered in the fastest heat. That, however, is not the weird part. The more unusual development is that her teammate, Claire Seymour, is entered in the fifth heat, not the fastest section.

Ellsworth has run 2:03 for 800 meters, so it's not crazy to suggest that she should be in this heat. Of course, if Ellsworth is in this heat, then why isn't Seymour -- the veteran who has run 2:01 and was runner-up at the indoor national meet last year -- entered with the top women?

I admittedly don't have an answer and I don't want to speculate other than her entered seed time may have been intentionally slower.

Of course, even if that is true, then Seymour will still get to battle rising LSU middle distance ace, Michaela Rose. The former high school superstar is crazy dynamic, but is clearly at her best in the 800 meters. She owns a 2:02 personal best from last spring and has had moments where she can be competitive with some of the best women in the nation.

If Seymour is strong enough and Rose is sharp enough, then this fifth heat could get very fast.

I know that I made this headline "Oklahoma State vs The Field", but if I'm being honest, I think this race will mostly be Cowboy-centric...I hope I don't regret saying that.

I admittedly don't see how Alex Maier and Ryan Schoppe wouldn't go 1-2 in this race.

Maier is at a completely different level right now and could throw down something ridiculously fast on Saturday. And truthfully, I think my predicted time for him may even be slightly conservative if this race goes out fast enough.

I think he's untouchable tomorrow.

Schoppe isn't quite as invincible as his teammate, but his resume is so. darn. good. and I really believe in this Texas native. He has a great understanding of positioning on the track and his times have made significant improvements over the last year.

With personal bests of 3:37 (1500), 3:57 (mile) and 7:46 (3k), and a mostly-solid cross country season now on his resume, I feel like Schoppe is a pretty good pick to earn silver in this field.

Teammates Fouad Messaoudi and Juan Diego Castro are also in this race. And while they aren't quite as established as the first two men who I mentioned, I see far more upside with this duo than I do downside.

Messaoudi is coming off of a thrilling end to his cross country season as well as a monster 3000 meter PR from back in December when he ran 7:44. The momentum that he has built is crazy impressive. And if he carries that into tomorrow's race, then there's no telling how fast he could run.

He does, after all, own a 3:39 (1500) personal best from last spring.

There's a world where Messaoudi pulls off the upset with some insanely fast time (think 3:53 or 3:54) and then the internet loses its mind for a week. And while I don't expect that to happen, I've learned not to doubt this Moroccan distance star.

As for Castro, he was somewhat quiet last winter and then didn't race in the spring. But the Oklahoma State veteran has run 1:48 (800) and 3:57 (mile) before. And while it may be fair to question where his fitness is after last year, his recent 1000 meter time of 2:22 (en route to a win over his teammate) suggests that he's in pretty respectable shape.

The guy who I think is most likely to break up that Cowboy contingent is Ole Miss veteran, Shane Bracken. The former Division Two standout from a few years back just ran 3:57 in the mile last weekend (which was slightly off of his PR) and has proven to be fairly consistent with his times.

After winning last weekend's mile effort over his teammate, I imagine that Bracken wants to take another serious crack at dropping his time low enough to be in national qualifying contention. He certainly has a shot of doing so, but this field of Oklahoma State men will either crowd his path or drag him to a fast mark.

Arkansas' Elias Schreml and BYU's Lucas Bons have both proven to be very strong milers in their own right. However, Schreml is still young and he struggled in his season debut over 1000 meters. Bons, meanwhile, had a surprisingly quiet 2022 indoor track season and was then absent for the entirety of last spring.

The BYU ace is arguably just as talented as Ryan Schoppe is (in the mile), but we also have no idea what to expect from him this Saturday.

Names to watch from heat four include Davis Bove (LSU), John Lester (Stanford) and Nehemia Too (Iowa State). This field should at least be competitive enough for Bove, a proven 3:56 miler, to run around the 3:57 range.

The LSU ace had a bit of a weird outdoor track season, but he has been very good on the indoor oval for the past two years and has experience on the national stage. I like him to win this fourth heat.

This may end up being one of the more entertaining head-to-head collegiate matchups that we'll see this weekend. Two superstar talents -- Oklahoma's State Taylor Roe and Arkansas' Lauren Gregory -- are (slightly) dropping down in distance this weekend, although not by much.

In their last mile matchup, Gregory was favored to secure the win, but then Roe pulled off the upset with her patented last-turn-kick. Roe won that race in a time of 4:34, a mark that seemingly sparked massive momentum for the rest of her indoor track season en route to a 3k national title.

Of course, it's not like Gregory ran poorly in that race. A 4:35 mark is still fantastic and the Razorback ace would go on to run 4:09 for 1500 meters in the spring.

Roe has undoubtedly improved since these two women last matched up in the mile. In theory, she's going to be harder to take down than she was last year. But few women, historically, have been as flawless and more consistent than Gregory has. If you're going to defeat this Arkansas veteran, then you (usually) need to have a perfect race.

Yes, it's true, Gregory didn't have her absolute best day in the 5000 meters back in December, although that feels ridiculous to say given that she still ran 15:34.

In my eyes, Roe is probably favored to win this race...but it shouldn't be by a lot. With a 4:32 mile personal best, Gregory could easily come away with gold if she's at/near top form.

However, the difference between this year's Razorback Invitational mile field and last year's Razorback Invitational mile field is that the women's mile is FAR stronger in 2023 than it was in 2022.

Stanford rookie megastar Juliette Whittaker is also set to toe the line in the women's mile. And while some may only know her as an 800 meter runner, it's important to know that the Maryland native is so much more than that.

With a 4:36 mile PR at the high school level -- and now being entered in the most competitive mile field that she's ever been in -- there's a realistic shot that Whittaker earns a new PR this weekend. And after running 2:02 (800) last weekend, it's not unrealistic to think that a new personal best could put this Cardinal athlete in the 4:34 or 4:35 range.

And if that happens then...could she win this race?

I'm not sure I would put money on that, but I certainly wouldn't bet against her, either.

The uncertainty only grows when we introduce Oklahoma State's Billah Jepkirui. The freshman star from Kenya had a tremendous cross country season this past fall despite one "off" day at the national meet.

Jepkirui is rumored to have run 4:11 for 1500 meters, although The Stride Report has not yet been able to officially confirm that. But it has become harder to doubt the validity of that rumor after seeing the level of firepower that she exhibited on the grass.

However, a 2:49 (1k) mark from last weekend doesn't necessarily signal that she's going to run something similar to 4:11 for 1500 meters on Saturday. And without much more information on her, it seems safe to say that this Cowgirl rookie is (easily) the biggest wild card in this field.

Staying in the BIG 12, we'll also get to see Iowa State's Cailie Logue in this race. She was absent last spring and this past fall, but her 2022 winter campaign was really solid.

With a 4:36 mile PR, and the rust already shaken off on her home track last week, Logue could take advantage of a fast field and try to match her 4:36 personal best. There is still some level of uncertainty about where her current fitness is (since we haven't seen her race in a while), but on paper, she's talented enough to be a top-five collegiate in this field.

Other names such as Lexy Halladay-Lowry (BYU), Sadie Sargent (BYU), Ellie Deligianni (Stanford) and Mary Ellen Eudaly (Arkansas) are also in the top heat. Watch out for Eudaly who just had a very nice mile race two weekends ago. This could be a potential statement performance for the rookie Razorback.

Buckle up, this race could get fast.

Insanely fast.

As I'm typing this, I wondering if my current predictions are too conservative, time-wise. Stanford's top distance talents are all going to be toeing the line against (most of) BYU's top distance talents.

And if this race becomes the time trial setting that we think it could be, then we could be in for some fireworks -- and maybe a time faster than anything we'll see (collegiately) at Boston University in the 3000 meters.

Ky Robinson is the clear and obvious favorite. There should be no argument about this.

Sure, his experience in the open 3000 meters (not the steeplechase) is fairly limited and his PR in the event sits at "only" 7:50. Those are all fair points.

But is anyone really going to tell me that a guy who has run 3:55 (mile) and 13:11 (5k) so far this season isn't the top choice in this field? I suppose you could make an argument for Hicks, but Robinson just seems unstoppable right now.

In fairness to Charles Hicks, this will be his season debut. He has not yet raced on the indoor oval this winter after winning the NCAA XC Championships in November and then the U23 Euro XC National Championships back in December.

With a 7:43 (3k) personal best, as well as a 3rd place All-American finish in this event at last year's indoor national meet, it is probably fair to suggest that this Stanford ace is the most proven athlete in this field for this event.

The start of Hicks' 2022 indoor track campaign wasn't great, but the resilient Stanford talent rallied incredibly well in the latter-stages of the winter months. He took that momentum and then thrived on the outdoor oval.

The only reason why I probably won't pick Hicks to win this race is because of his turnover. While I don't question that Hicks could comfortably dip under four minutes in the mile, I do wonder if he will have the same leg turnover that we've seen from Robinson in his last two races.

The third head of Stanford's distance running Cerberus is Cole Sprout who is coming off of a fantastic 3:56 mile PR from two weekends ago.

The Colorado native has proven that his injury from the tail-end of the cross country season, a partial hamstring tear, isn't affecting his performance. That's something that we understandably had questions about going into the winter months.

It almost seems insulting to predict that Sprout will run 7:44 for 3000 meters this weekend. He holds a personal best of 7:43, was an 8th place All-American in the event last winter and he just proved that he's healthy.

There's a scenario where he wins this race and runs something along the lines of 7:42.

Before we move on to all of the non-Palo Alto names, we also have to highlight Thomas Boyden, a rising Stanford star who is closer to the Robinson-Hicks-Sprout trio than he is to his other teammates.

Boyden just ran a 3:57 mile PR two weeks ago. For someone who we originally viewed as a 5k/10k specialist, that was a pleasant display of speed. And after seeing that this Utah native holds that kind of turnover, I can't help but think that the 3000 meters may be his sweet spot.

If Saturday's 3k field doesn't overwhelm him -- and the men's mile field in Seattle seemingly didn't phase him two weeks ago -- then Boyden could be due for a monster performance.

Alright...now for everyone else.

BYU's Casey Clinger is a very interesting name. In terms of raw aerobic talent, Clinger is probably in the same tier as Stanford's top trio. The Cougar veteran had an excellent cross country season, arguably the best of his career, and just ran 13:17 for 5000 meters back in December.

Clinger is absolutely going to be a problem for the Stanford men this weekend. However, I'm not sure that Clinger has shown the same qualities that the Cardinal men have. I don't necessarily think he'll be an elite 3k runner in the same way that he is an elite 5k runner.

Of course, not being "elite" in one event doesn't mean that he won't still be great, either.

The BYU star has only ever contested the men's 3000 meters on the indoor oval once throughout his career (a 7:47.78 altitude conversion from last winter) and his leg speed in these longer distance races isn't as prevalent.

To be clear, Clinger has shown us on numerous occasions that he can be nationally competitive in the mile and in the 1500 meters. His turnover is absolutely there. But his best marks in those races have come at altitude (which are more strength-based settings) and he hasn't always had the same kick as a few other guys in tactical championship races.

And in the men's 3000 meters, I think he'll need some stronger turnover if he wants a chance of beating at least one of Stanford's "Big Three".

That said, Clinger looks like he's in the best shape of his life. And with this race likely being an all-out effort rather than a tactical battle, there's a good chance that the Utah native will post a highly competitive mark on Saturday.

I'm also wondering what kind of role fellow BYU runner Aidan Troutner will play in this race. Historically, he's proven to be a long distance talent, something that he validated on the grass this past fall with a strong season.

But Troutner also surprised many people by posting a 3:56 mile conversion the other weekend. So what will happen when he pairs his 5k and cross country strength with his recent mile prowess?

I think that equates to something along the lines of 7:49 (3k), but it's hard to say for sure.

Patrick Kiprop (Arkansas), Lexington Hilton (Arkansas) and Joey Nokes (BYU) are all due for significant personal bests as well. The same can be said for Anthony Camerieri (Ole Miss) who I could see winning the fourth heat in a time of 7:49.

*Collegiates only, assumes all runners will contest the race that they are entered in.