Five Things To Watch: 2022 PAC-12 XC Championships

A number of historically elite distance programs will converge on Friday to race for conference honors in arguably the preeminent distance running league. Eventual BIG 10-defector USC will host the PAC 12 XC Championships, providing us with national meet implications and potential Kolas points that are at stake.

Here are five things to keep an eye on...

NOTE: The Stride Report was unable to locate official entries for the PAC-12 XC Championships prior to the publication of this meet preview. Unless noted otherwise, TSR is anticipating most teams to run their full lineups on Friday.

Since their “humble” beginnings as our preseason TSR #3 team, the Stanford men have taken any skepticism or tempered expectations about their podium or title odds ablaze.

A runner-up finish at the loaded Cowboy Jamboree field without one of their top low-sticks (Ky Robinson) was enough for us to bump them up one spot. However, a dominant win at Nuttycombe over five of the other top-seven teams in our first update list was enough to anoint the Cardinal as the odds-on title favorites entering the postseason.

Charles Hicks, Cole Sprout and Ky Robinson are all megastar All-Americans and each runner has a shot at the individual national title. At at their worst, they still have a top-10 or top-15 floor on the national stage.

That, however, is not the most important aspect of this Stanford lineup.

Interchangeable backend scorers have stepped up in a major way behind that elite trio, although four different names have emerged in the final two scoring spots during Stanford's last two meets.

Devin Hart, Thomas Boyden, Robert DiDonato and Meika Beaudoin-Rousseau all need to validate themselves on Friday.

Boyden and DiDonato were top-21 finishers at the Cowboy Jamboree, but struggled at Nuttycombe. Meanwhile, Devin Hart was beyond phenomenal at Nuttycombe, placing 13th, and Beaudoin-Rousseau was also strong at that same meet with his 30th place finish.

However, those performances from Hart and Beaudoin-Rousseau were clearly the best two cross country results either runner has ever produced.

The PAC-12 XC Championships will at least give us a greater baseline of what to expect from the backend of this lineup. Each of those four men have the ability to offer fantastic scoring value, but building consistency prior to the national meet will be a necessity.

We won’t see the Cardinal face other national title aspirants such as Northern Arizona, BYU or Oklahoma State in Riverside, California tomorrow, but if the Colorado men run to their full potential, then the Stanford men can't exactly jog to a conference victory. They'll have to load up the top-10 portion of these results like we're expecting them to.

Stanford breaking their own 2002 PAC-12 XC Championship scoring record of 19 points would be a bullish goal. While it's conceivable (and maybe even expected) that the Cardinal could sweep the top-three individual spots, they would need their final two scorers to finish no worse than 6th place and 7th place to match that score.

Either way, it’s still possible for the Cardinal to finish with just half of the score of the runner-up team. Doing so would likely send yet another message to the rest of their title-contending contemporaries in other conferences.

Even though Stanford is the overwhelming title favorite on Friday, this is hardly a slouch conference year for the men. Colorado is still ranked at TSR #10 while the Oregon men and Washington men are also listed in the top-25 of our rankings.

The Buffaloes began the season looking like a prime podium contender, boasting unreal depth with an experience-laden lineup. In fact, if you had told us two months ago that the Buffaloes would be the favorites entering the PAC-12 XC Championships, I don't think we would have been totally shocked.

However, Colorado has underwhelmed a bit since then. They haven't been bad, but they certainly haven't looked like the podium contender that we expected them to be.

Finishing 7th and 8th at the Cowboy Jamboree and Nuttycombe, respectively, is hardly something to scoff at, but we saw Colorado finish behind a number of ranked teams in each of those efforts who were previously below them.

The biggest issue is that nobody on this Boulder-based roster has consistently stepped up as a true front-runner in their two main races this fall.
 

Yes, Andrew Kent was amazing at the Cowboy Jamboree, placing 8th, but then he faltered slightly at Nuttycombe to finish 44th. Similarly, Seth Hirsch finished 63rd at the Cowboy Jamboree, but then showed promise at Nuttycombe with a 23rd place finish.

And while Austin Vancil's 22nd place finish at Nuttycombe was exciting, that was also the only race that he raced in a Colorado singlet this fall.

However, a smaller field like the PAC-12 XC Championships may favor the Buffaloes' lineup construction which still boasts laudable high-end depth. That was the case last year for this team when the Colorado men finished “just” 8th at the NCAA XC Championships, but were the conference champions a few weeks prior.

Four of the scorers from that PAC-12 title-winning group, each of whom placed in the top-12 individually from last year's conference meet, have returned. Because of that, it's not impossible, but still highly unlikely, that Colorado could knock Stanford off of their perch.

But like we said, that would be a stretch.

A more noble goal for the Buffaloes may be to hold off the two other powerhouse programs for runner-up honors on Friday -- Oregon and Washington.

Those Pacific Northwest foes have opposing short-term trajectories that contradict their own longer-term outlook.

The Ducks have exceeded expectations in Coach Jerry Schumacher’s first season, rising into the top-20 of our national rankings. Bienenfeld is great, and the backend of this lineup was better than expected at Nuttycombe, but a lack of firepower still leaves with questions about the Oregon men as they enter Friday's race.

Meanwhile, the Huskies have nearly fallen out of the top-25 despite starting comfortably in the top-10 portion of our rankings. Their finish relative to each other, and the Buffaloes, will be something to watch as all of these teams jockey for position with the national meet looming in the not-so-distant future.

Luckily, this super fast course should favor the track prowess of many of these UW standouts who had great years on the track this past winter and spring.

It would be foolish to count them out from winning gold on Friday, but a strong argument could be made that neither of the top returners from last year’s conference meet are the odds-on favorite for the men's individual crown.

Stanford's Charles Hicks won the men’s PAC-12 individual title outright last year and seems like a lock to find himself near the front of this field yet again thanks to his track record of steady excellence.

Yes, it's true, Hicks is 0-for-2 this season when going for wins, but he has finished in the top-three of loaded races and may be more focused on team titles.

10 of the other top-15 finishers from last year's conference meet also return which could further muddy things for Hicks, especially when you consider that Ky Robinson, his teammate, is ranked TSR #1 after winning Nuttycombe.

There’s even room for a quasi-surprise winner in the men’s race as Hicks was last year. The prime candidates for doing so are Oregon’s Aaron Bienenfeld, Washington’s Brian Fay and Stanford's Cole Sprout.

Each of those men have been truly elite on the track, specifically when it comes to the longer distances like the 5000 meters, 10,000 meters and/or the steeplechase. Of that group, Sprout has looked the best so far this fall, but this flat (and super fast) course may also favor Brian Fay's scary-good turnover on Friday.

The conference champion does not return on the women’s side, but last year's runner-up, Emily Covert, does. However, the Colorado ace has even slimmer odds of taking home the individual title than Charles Hicks seemingly does.

Since entering the 2022 cross country season as the odds-on favorite as our TSR #7 runner, Covert has hardly been bad, but she has looked more like a fringe-All-American than a PAC-12 individual title contender.

Perhaps she will round into form in time for the postseason, but she’ll still have her hands full in a women’s race that also carries massive team implications.

Covert could have her best race of the season on Friday and still barely slip into the top-five. That’s how deep and unsettled this field is.

Which leads us to our next point...

You can’t count Emily Covert out of the individual race, but there are a few names who seemingly have more favorable odds at a solo victory when just looking at this season’s results.

Foremost among them may be Oregon State’s Kaylee Mitchell. The fifth-year Beaver senior took a winding, unlikely path to glory, rising from the D2 ranks to become a true star at a home-state school.

Last fall, Mitchell had the best cross country of her career (at the time) at this meet when she finished 6th overall. However, with a much better lead-up, including a jaw-dropping 4th place effort at Nuttycombe, Mitchell could be primed for an even bigger breakout race on Friday.

In doing so, she could become Oregon State’s first PAC-12 individual cross country champion.

Of course, Mitchell will have her work cut out for her in a swarm of other top-flight individuals. Bailey Hertenstein has quickly endeared herself to her new school after emerging as Colorado's top runner so far this season since transferring from Indiana. She finished one spot behind Mitchell at Nuttycombe, but could use her promising mile-based speed to flip that result in what could be another tight race.

Utah’s Emily Venters was just a spot behind both of those women at Nuttycombe, finishing 6th, after winning earning a statement victory at the Griak Invitational earlier this season. With arguably the most upwards momentum on her side, Venters has the faculty to take home the title after a bronze-medal finish at this meet last year.

The individual women's winner will most likely come from that quartet of women, but other squads will raise their contenders as well as they hope to shake up a crowded team title picture.

We could see also Stanford’s Zofia Dudek or Oregon’s Izzy Thornton-Bott take an aggressive approach in hopes of a career-best day that lifts them and their teams to glory.

All one has to do to understand the implications of the PAC-12 XC Championships on the women’s side is to take a quick glance at our national rankings.

Once there, you’ll find five schools in a vacuum-tight group who are sitting just on the edge of our top-10. In fact, we have Stanford, Utah and Colorado listed at TSR #10, TSR #11 and TSR #12, respectively, while Oregon and Washington are close behind those teams at TSR #14 and TSR #16, respectively.

While the aforementioned front-runners will no doubt set the tone for their respective teams, it's the programs with the strongest middle and backend lineup talent who will likely have the bigger impact as they attempt to prevent any scoring deficiencies in their lineup structure.

Keep an especially close eye on complementary pieces like Ella Baran of Colorado, Lucy Jenks of Stanford, Keelah Barger of Utah and Emilie Girard of Oregon. Most of those women are pivotal third scorers who will be attempting to break into the top-10 or top-15 on Friday.

Doing so would likely give their respective teams a pleasantly surprising scoring edge which could ultimately determine the final team standings. And if we had to guess, the team that seems to have the more scoring options and the highest floor is Stanford.

But will they have the necessary firepower to counter their conference foes?

The top-five teams in the PAC-12 results should be made up of the programs listed above. The order in which they finish, though, could sort itself out in any number of ways.

All five lineups seem like near-locks for the NCAA XC Championships where they could finish in a completely different order, but a dominant performance could send one lucky team up our top-10 and maybe into the podium-contending realm.

We'll be fascinated to find out which teams elevate themselves above their peers and earn some hardware on Friday.

Teams (Men)

Individuals (Men)

Teams (Women)

Individuals (Women)