Five Things to Watch: 2022 PAC-12 Outdoor Championships

Additional commentary by Garrett Zatlin

The PAC-12 is a conference known for it's elite distance running. With numerous powerhouses generating headlines and a handful of other underrated rosters adding depth, the PAC-12 often acts as the annual bar of excellence for NCAA endurance athletes.

Here are our five things to watch at Hayward Field this weekend...

NOTE: All highlighted matchups assume that the respective athletes will qualify out of the preliminary round and into the finals. Predictions can be found here.

Between Cole Sprout, Ky Robinson and Julia Heymach, there is a good chance that we see a Cardinal athlete standing atop of the podium in both 5k races.

Sprout's and Robinson’s chances to soar across the line with the win is admittedly more likely than Heymach's chances based on entries, but neither side guarantee the win despite Heymach being the reigning PAC-12 Champion from the 2021 conference meet.

Starting with the men’s 5k, Robinson and Sprout, who have both run 13:20 and 13:24, respectively, this spring, are the headline acts in this race. Robinson was the 2nd place 5k finisher at the indoor national meet this past winter with Sprout close behind in 5th place, both in this exact event.

These two men, when working together, are practically unstoppable. Just look at their recent performances at the Stanford Invitational and Payton Jordan Invitational. They are both fresh off of a pair of sub-27:50 performances in the 10k and have tons of momentum without the smallest sign of slowing down.

When one Stanford star runs well, you can guarantee that the other(s) will hold their own as well. And yet, despite the certainty that the Cardinal men give us, can we even say that Robinson or Sprout are favored to win this race?

The rest of this field is way too good to let the Stanford men run away with the title. Washington’s Brian Fay has the fastest 5k time this spring with his monster 13:16 win at Bryan Clay, a victory that came over Morgan Beadlescomb with a ridiculous finishing kick.

Fay has some great momentum heading into the PAC-12 Championships, but it's hard to determine which race (or races) he will focus on. The Husky star is entered in the 1500 meters, the 5k and the steeplechase. Does he actually contest all three?

If Fay is at least fresh enough for this race, then he can absolutely win 5k gold. In fact, even if he commits to his heavy racing workload, he could still come away with a win in this race if it becomes tactical.

But given some of the other entries in this field, there's a good chance that this race won't be tactical.

That's because Colorado’s Eduardo Herrera and Washington’s Kieran Lumb finished within three seconds of each other at Bryan Clay a few weeks ago in the 5k, running 13:20 and 13:23, respectively, earlier this season.

In 2022, Herrera has consistently been near the front of lead packs week after week and he showed us at the indoor national meet in the 3k that he can at least hang with a fast finish. If he can channel his 3:38 speed for 1500 meters (he has run 3:39 this spring) in a kicker’s race, then maybe he could surprise a few people.

Still, the faster the race, the better Herrera's chances become, especially with Fay having some proven speed and a better finishing kick than anyone in this field.

As for Lumb, the Washington runner’s 13:23 mark was a promising PR. However, what could give Lumb an advantage in this race is 3:55 mile speed, a weapon in his racing toolbox that could challenge the Cardinal duo up front.

When Lumb is at his best, he's extremely dangerous. He is super explosive and plenty dynamic. He was injured and not racing for most of the indoor track season, but he has rebounded incredibly well this spring, posting some of the fastest times of his career.

If Lumb wins this race, it would be a surprise, but not necessarily a big one. He's certainly capable of taking home gold, but he's not amongst our first couple of picks.

Three final names to keep an eye on are Oregon’s Aaron Bienenfeld, a 13:21 runner who has run a seasonal best of 13:28, and Washington’s Issac Green, a 13:27 runner who has run a seasonal best of 13:29. Colorado's Andrew Kent, who has run 13:28 this spring, also deserves some recognition.

Bienenfeld brings with him the home track advantage, whereas Green and Kent have numerous teammates who they can rally around and work with.

Bienenfeld thrives in an aggressively paced, high-aerobic settings, so on paper, this field favors his strengths quite a bit.
 

Green, meanwhile, can do a little bit of everything. He has quietly emerged as a fairly competitive name in a few races over the past year and he could be due for an even bigger performance.

As for Kent, he is a really great sleeper pick. Not only has he run 13:28 this spring, but he has also run a 3:42 personal best for 1500 meters. He has all of the intangibles to be a really lethal runner and he'll quietly find a way to put himself in the mix.

Switching to the women’s 5k, Heymach might be the reigning outdoor conference champion in the 5k, but Colorado’s Abby Nichols hasn’t lost a 5k to a college competitor yet this season.

Heymach, who is also entered in the 800 meters, completed this same double last year, winning gold in the 5000 meters and placing 2nd in the 800 meters. The Stanford superstar has the necessary experience and tactical acumen to take down Nichols -- just look at her All-American finish in the 5k and 15:33 PR -- but Nichols has been on a tear this season.

Heymach has the closing speed that Nichols lacks as the Stanford star has a 2:02 mark for 800 meters to her name. In a conference race that could be tactical, that could come in handy in a somewhat similar way that it did last year.

Even so, don’t look past Nichols’ endurance. The Colorado ace has consistently dropped time off of her PR this spring, opening up her season with a huge 15:27 performance before dropping down to a 15:15 mark two weeks later.

Nichols is also coming off of a promising 1500 meter race where she ran 4:14. That's enough middle distance prowess to believe that she could certainly take down Heymach and her other competitors in a variety of race scenarios.

The faster this race is, the better it is for Nichols who, in theory, is good enough to run away from her competition. Still, Heymach is just fast enough to keep this race interesting throughout its entirety.

Women who also need to be closely watched are Washington's Haley Herberg and Allie Schadler. This Husky duo is coming off of strong performances at Payton Jordan in the 5k, both running outstanding times of 15:31.

Herberg is a bit like Nichols in the sense that she thrives in the longer distances and has her best races when the pace is fast. Schadler, meanwhile, has a bit more proven versatility (like Heymach) and can be a little underrated if the race becomes more tactical than not.

Even so, both of these women have only raced twice (each) this spring and they have only one result (each) that we can truly take seriously. This weekend will be a great help in terms of giving us more data points to analyze for these Washington women.

Colorado’s Emily Covert, as well as Utah’s Emily Venters and Cara Woolnough, could fly under the radar here and emerge as top-three finishers.

None of those women have the track record (no pun intended) that their aforementioned competitors do, but they have been solid in the 10k this season and are nationally recognizable names, specifically Covert.

Of those three, we like the recent rise of Woolnough the most ever since seeing her weekend double at the PAC-12 Invitational this past winter and her 15:40 mark for 5000 meters earlier this spring.

Colorado’s Abby Nichols is a highly accomplished distance runner, recently running 15:15 in the 5k at the Mt. SAC Relays and flexing her metric mile speed with a 4:14 mark in the 1500 meters at Fresno State.

Both of these performances were personal bests for Nichols and they set her up nicely for a strong 10k this weekend at the PAC-12 Championships.

Last year, the Colorado ace made her debut in the 10k at the PAC-12 meet in promising fashion, finishing runner-up with an excellent time of 32:49. She would later go on to qualify for the NCAA Championships in said event before recording a DNF.

This year, however, is a whole different ballgame for Nichols. She hasn’t backed down from any race she has been in, recording personal bests in everything from the 800 meters to the 5k.

Right now the nation’s leading time in the 10k is Lauren Gregory’s mark of 32:34. However, with the way that Nichols has been racing this spring, that time is in danger of falling out of the top spot...dare we even say likely?

And if that happens, then Nichols would suddenly be thrust into the 10k national title conversation more firmly than the 5k national title conversation.

Those who could challenge for the runner-up spot include Nichols’ teammates Emily Covert and India Johnson, as well as Washington’s Haley Herberg and Allie Schadler. All five of these women are entered in both the 5k and the 10k, so they will have their work cut-out for them.

Covert and Johnson have the best chance of running alongside Nichols as the two women have personal bests of 33:17 and 33:36, respectively. Covert has been a little more dominant in the longer distances than Johnson, but ever since transferring to Colorado from Michigan State, Johnson has already seen noticeable improvements in her personal bests.

Meanwhile, Herberg has extensive 10k experience under her belt while Schadler will be making her event debut.

Herberg owns a PR of 32:35 in the event from the 2021 season and was an All-American at this distance last year, finishing 5th at the outdoor national meet. Her season opener of 34:03 at Raleigh Relays wasn’t anything head-turning, but it was a respectable start to her season.

Schadler will have the opportunity to test the waters in the 10k, and what better way to do it than alongside a teammate and in a deep field? The Washington Husky just ran a PR in the 5k, a 15:31, and has nothing to lose.

Both Covert and Herberg are true long distance stalwarts and this field, in theory, favors their strengths, especially if Nichols makes the race fast. The 10k is clearly Heberg's best event while Covert has a chance to prove that it can also be her best event.

We’re just going to come out and say it: The women’s 1500 meters is loaded.

NCAA 1500 meter leader Julia Heymach might not be entered in this race, but the talent runs VERY deep at the PAC-12 meet this weekend. Just comparing times from performances this season, the top-eight women entered in this field are separated by five seconds.

Stanford's Christina Aragon might have the top seed time in the field with her seasonal best of 4:12, but the pre-race favorite has to be Colorado’s Micaela DeGenero all things considered.

DeGenero, the 2022 NCAA indoor mile champion, has run the fifth-fastest time in this field this season stemming from a 4:15 effort at Bryan Clay. However, it's the raw firepower of her 4:09 PR that stands out.

The Colorado redshirt senior doesn’t race a whole lot during the regular season, but come the postseason, she’s firing on all cylinders. DeGenero last recorded a 2:04 mark for 800 meters at Fresno State, matching her PR. Her speed is second-to-none and could come in handy when facing her conference foes, especially if this race turns tactical -- which is very possible!

Coming back to Aragon, she seems to be nearing her early college success after being hampered by some past injuries. The Stanford veteran has been a consistent All-American in the 1500 meters over the years, finishing 7th in 2017, 4th in 2018 and 8th in 2021.

Her 4:09 PR comes from the 2018 season, but with the way that Aragon is running and how loaded this field is, there's a chance that she continues to inch closer to her all-time best mark.

For the most part, Aragon has been fairly consistent on the outdoor oval over the past year and her postseason peak looks just as dangerous this year as it did last year. She's highly experienced and knows how to navigate these fields.

DeGenero is likely favored, but Aragon is a very realistic threat given her recent momentum.

Then we have Washington who is fielding Anna Gibson and Madison Heisterman this weekend, both of whom are also contesting the 800 meters.
 

Of these two, Gibson has a better chance of sneaking under the 4:10 barrier, although that will still be a fairly big ask. The Husky middle distance runner has contested two 1500 meter races this season, recording a PR of 4:13 in a win at Raleigh Relays and a 4:14 mark en route to a 3rd place finish at Fresno State, only finishing behind Colorado’s Abby Nichols and Madison Boreman.

Gibson very clearly has momentum on her side and after a fantastic indoor track season, we don't have to question the validity of her recent performances. DeGenero and Aragon might be an entirely new challenge, but she still seems like a safe pick to run well in this field.

As for Heisterman, her 4:14 PR comes from the 2021 outdoor season, but she has been on a roll since the winter months. She might only have a 4:17 seasonal best, but she has run that time twice this season. Sometimes, consistency is key, and given her recent indoor campaign, we have reason to believe that she has more upside in store.

Colorado's other indoor mile All-Americans, Madison Boreman and Rachel McArthur, are both coming off of a pair top-five finishes in the 1500 meters at the Fresno State Invitational.

Boreman, a strong steeplechase runner with a 9:46 personal best, just won a stacked 1500 meter race at Fresno State, beating many women who she will be racing this weekend. She matched her 4:14 personal best in the process.

Boreman might not focus on the 1500 come the NCAA postseason, but this race is a great way to develop some speed for the steeple, which is admittedly an odd combination of racing strengths. Still, her mile/1500 prowess isn't that far off from her steeplechase success and a win isn't necessarily out of the question for her this weekend.

As for McArthur, this will only be her second race of the season, an approach that did wonders for her during the winter months.

The middle distance veteran may have only run 4:16 in her season opener a few weeks ago, but with the rust-busted, McArthur should see a drop in time much like we saw during the indoor track season.

She might not necessarily win the race this weekend, but it’s another opportunity for her to prepare for the regional meet and for her to build momentum.

Then we have Oregon’s Izzy Thornton-Bott who will be aiming for her first PAC-12 title.

Thornton-Bott has been extremely consistent this track season, not losing to a single collegiate athlete in any race she has contested. The Oregon Duck just ran her 4:13 PR at the Oregon Relays and will be able to feed off the home track advantage.

This Duck standout is phenomenal at positioning and at responding to certain moves. She has sneaky good speed and her rapidly growing momentum has been reflected in her ongoing progression this season.

Thornton-Bott isn't necessarily a favorite, but she could pull off an upset this weekend under the right circumstances. She is one of the last women who you would want to face at this meet.

The women’s steeplechase is shaping into a three woman race between Madison Boreman (Colorado), Aneta Konieczek (Oregon) and Grace Fetherstonhaugh (Oregon State).

It’s hard to choose any singular leader of this group as all three women have run between 9:44 and 9:46 this season in the steeplechase.

Howevere, Konieczek likely has the edge given her PR and the fact that she will be racing on her home track at Hayward Field.

The Oregon Duck had a nail-biting win in her steeplechase season opener a few weeks ago against Fetherstonhaugh. However, Konieczek was still able to hold off the Oregon State Beaver at the tape, winning by a mere four one-hundredths of a second.

The home-team favorite, Konieczek has a steeplechase PR of 9:25 from the summer of 2021 while competing in Poland, a time that truly solidifies her the preferred favorite in this field. Even if the superstar Duck comes within 10-seconds of that time, then that should still be enough to put away this field and win gold.

Even so, things won’t be easy for Konieczek as she will have to once again battle Grace Fetherstonhaugh.

The Oregon State ace will be out for the win this weekend and rightfully so. She dropped six seconds off of her previous personal best when she ran 9:44 at the Oregon Relays and will be looking for a sub-9:40 performance to show that she isn’t one to mess with.

Fetherstonhaugh is also coming off an indoor track season where she showed incredible prowess in the 3000 meters, qualifying for the indoor national meet in that event and then earning All-American honors in the DMR.

And then there’s Madison Boreman.

As a freshman back in 2017, Boreman took the NCAA by storm when she finished runner-up in the steeplechase at the outdoor national meet. After dealing with some injury setbacks, Boreman is back near the top like she never left.

The 2021 season saw her run 9:48 in the steeple and qualify for the NCAA Outdoor Championships. Since, then she has improved upon her that mark, running 9:46 at the Mt. SAC Relays to match her 2017 PR.

Boreman has since improved her leg speed, running quick times of 4:14 for 1500 meters and 4:33 in the mile. Her newfound speed could be useful in the steeplechase if it comes down to a strong kick at the end.

There is clearly more steeplechase potential within Boreman that we have yet to see. A sub-9:40 mark is certainly in the cards for her and in a race where she'll likely need that kind of time to be competitive, we could see another PR for Boreman this weekend.

 But now let's move to the men's side...

Stanford's Ky Robinson has run one steeplechase race this season and it came less than 24 hours after running a ridiculously fast 10k time of 27:47. His 8:53 seasonal best might be well off of his 8:32 PR, but that doesn’t matter. Robinson wasn't 100% fresh for that race and he was clearly racing for the win.

Anytime this Stanford ace takes the track as of late, a big performance is expected. After all, just look at his recent finishes in the 5k and 10k.

This PAC-12 steeple race could be somewhat of a revenge tour for Robinson after his gruesome fall in 2021. Last year, Robinson clipped one of the barriers and when he took a tumble, he was spiked.

Remarkably though, Robinson got up and still finished 3rd.

However, this year should be different for Robinson after his gained national meet experience from 2021. He has become so much better compared to last year and he was already an All-American in this event last spring.

If he was already that good in 2021, then how good will he be in the steeple this year?

Robinson’s biggest steeple competitor this weekend will be Washington’s Brian Fay.

Now, you might be wondering, "Is this Fay’s event debut? He doesn’t even have an NCAA contested steeplechase race!"

That may be true, but he does have an insanely strong steeple PR.

Fay is actually an accomplished steeplechase runner. Believe it or not, his 8:29 performance is the best PR of the field, a time he ran in Europe in June 2021.

It is a little surprising to see Fay contest this race at this point in the season, but he has developed some solid speed and endurance over the course of the year thus far, running 3:55 in the mile, 13:16 in the 5k and 28:22 in the 10k.

The likely goal here is for his feet to get wet here (pun intended) as he takes on some of the NCAA’s best steeplechasers. If he replicates his all-time best performance, which seems very possible given his streak of elite times, then Fay could win this race.

Other men to watch aside from the two mentioned above are Washington State's Colton Johnsen, the Washington duo of Joe Waskom and Sam Affolder and the UCLA duo of Munir Kabbara and Peter Herold.

Johnsen, an All-American in this event with a PR of 8:32, wasn’t too far off from his personal best when he ran 8:39 at Payton Jordan. It was his third go-around at the distance this season, but it was a respectable time leading into the postseason.

Even so, Johnsen is likely capable of more. His versatility and national-caliber competitiveness made him one of the better steeplechasers in the country last spring. Now he just needs to deliver in the postseason in 2022.

Waskom, the top returner from the 2021 PAC-12 Championships after finishing runner-up in this event, has had a slow start to his season in the steeplechase.

The Husky ace has a personal best of 8:35, but since running 8:47 in his season opener at Raleigh Relays, Waskom’s times have trended backwards towards the nine minute mark and his recent 1500 meter result wasn't great. It will take a big performance from Waksom for him to get his mojo back.

Affolder, Kabbara and Herold are pretty much in the same place. These three men have personal bests of 8:43 (Affolder), 8:46 (Kabbara) and 8:42 (Herold). They might not be on the same level as Robinson or Fay, but any one of these three men could land amongst the top-three on a good day.

It might very well take the winner of the men's 1500 meters to lead a contingent of distance stars under 3:40 in order to get that victory, but that’s how the NCAA middle distance scene is simply evolving.

Oregon’s Reed Brown is the front man of this group with his jaw-dropping 3:36 personal best from the Oregon Relays. When you consider that Brown's 3:36 mark was his first race since finishing 3rd in the mile at the NCAA Indoor Championships this past winter, seeing his ability to seamlessly translate his fitness to the outdoor oval was wildly impressive.

With Nuguse likely out of the 1500 meters this spring, Brown is a name who we can very loosely throw around in the conversation for a national title.

Brown has been to numerous PAC-12 Championships, as well as numerous national championships, and is a true racer. His tactical understanding has improved dramatically, as has his poise in championship meets. He's running all-time elite marks and hasn't really had a bad race over the last year.

However, looking to rain on Oregon’s parade will be Washington’s Luke Houser.

Houser was a man on a mission during the indoor track season, putting up solid performances in the mile and the 3k before taking part on Washington’s DMR team at the NCAA Indoor Championships.

His outdoor season has been highlighted by a six-second PR in the 1500 meters when he ran 3:37 at Bryan Clay. Although he is coming off an underwhelming 3:41 mark, things can still go up from here for Houser. He's young and is still progressing at a rapid pace.

His upside might make him the scariest name in this race.

Colorado's Eduardo Herrera has finished amongst the top-three in as many races he has run this season. He has yet to lose a 1500 meter race, recently winning with an altitude-converted 3:38 at a home meet and winning with, yet again, another 3:39 mark at Fresno State. He also boasts a true 3:38 personal best which was run at sea level.

It will be interesting to see what Herrera can do when surrounded by men who are primarily milers. Herrera is a much better mile-centric runner than we give him credit for and his incredible aerobic fitness should give him enough strength to hang with a potentially hot pace.

Washington's Brian Fay is also entered in the 1500 meters, but it’s a little hard to determine which races the Husky star will run as he is also entered in the 5k and steeplechase.

Fay, a 3:55 miler, has only run 3:40 for 1500 meters this season. Sure, that time is no walk in the park, but the top collegiate men are running much faster these days. If Fay wants to be competitive in this field, he will need to run 3:38 to challenge the likes of Brown and Houser for the win, something that he is certainly capable of doing.

Some other names to watch this weekend in the 1500 meters are Oregon’s Elliot Cook and James Gormley, California’s Garrett MacQuiddy and Washington State’s Zach Stallings.

All four of these men are sitting at their 3:41 seasonal bests right now and could easily see sub-3:40 flash alongside their names if they go with the leaders from the beginning.

Stallings has the best chance of doing that given that he’s already broken the 3:40 barrier in his career. MacQuiddy is also a sneaky-good name who is tactically really strong and is capable of earning top finishes. Be sure to watch out for him.