Five Things To Watch: 2022 BIG 10 XC Championships

The BIG 10 XC Championships always provide us with plenty to talk about. Between Kolas scenarios, a vast amount of depth and some of the best individuals in the NCAA, the midwest clash conference clash is never boring.

Below, we highlighted five of the biggest things to watch for Friday's race.

The Wisconsin women should be favored for the BIG 10 title this Friday.

Despite a poor outing earlier this season at the Griak Invitational, the Badgers weren't at full strength for that race and they most recently finished 14th at Nuttycombe.

No, Wisconsin isn't a perfect team, but they're probably the most compete varsity lineup in this field and maybe even boast the most experience depending on how you feel about Michigan.

Shea Ruhly has looked like a legitimate low-stick for the Badgers this fall, but truthfully, we don't even know if she has run her best yet. We still think she has greater upside that she can deliver this weekend.

But after her, the order of this Wisconsin lineup becomes somewhat less clear. Samantha Stieve has been a fairly reliable and solid secondary scorer this fall, but women like Victoria Heiligenthal, Lucinda Crouch and Stella Gillman have not run to their full potential in 2022.

That, however, may actually be a good thing.

Because if the Badgers are still beating their BIG 10 foes at Nuttycombe without running at their absolute best, then one has to think that they still have more upside going into Friday's race.

Wisconsin is also plenty deep. Finding five effective scorers for their lineup should not be a major issue, although we do have to wonder what their firepower will be like compared to their conference foes.

The Michigan women, for instance, have three women who, at their peak fitness, could probably put three runners inside the top-seven or top-eight (but more on them in a moment).

The Michigan State women, meanwhile, have a fairly balanced lineup. They have a true front-runner in Katie Osika, a solid secondary scorer in McKenna Veen and tons of depth. As far as their lineup structure is concerned, they aren't all that different from Wisconsin.

Other teams like Northwestern, Illinois and Ohio State have also shown promise, each flexing either great firepower of a sneaky-good lineup that is complete through five runners. If the stars perfectly align, a potential upset result over one of the three teams mentioned above isn't out of the question.

But for now, Wisconsin has to be viewed as the favorite, especially after their Nuttycombe performance where they were just flat-out better. However, if a team like Michigan flexes far greater firepower, then things could get really interesting.

Speaking of the women from Ann Arbor...

Coming into this season, the Michigan women were listed as our highest-ranked BIG 10 team in the NCAA. That was largely because, on paper, they had one of the best scoring trios in the country, featuring Kayla Windemuller, Ericka VanderLende and Katelynne Hart.

However, of those three women, only Windemuller has delivered on our expectations this season -- and even then, she hasn't been overwhelmingly incredible, either.

At the Cowboy Jamboree, Windemuller put together an excellent 14th place finish. However, with VanderLende placing 97th in that field and Hart settling for a solid, but modest, 41st place finish, the Wolverines plummeted in the team standings.

Samantha Tran also had a very nice race of her own at the Cowboy Jamboree (finishing 34th), but the backend of this lineup simply influenced the Wolverines' team score too much.

At Nuttycombe, things weren't much better. Windemuller had a decent race, placing 68th. Samantha Tran (87th) and Samantha Saenz (98th) were also respectable middle-lineup scorers. But with Hart struggling and VanderLende not even in the race, the Michigan women once against faltered in the final results.

But here's the thing: This team, on paper, is so much better than what they have shown us so far this season. Over her career, VanderLende has finished in the top-six twice at the BIG 10 XC Championships (despite not being able to compete in 2020) while Hart is the eighth-best returner from last year's conference meet.

And as we all know, Windemuller has looked like the second-best women in the BIG 10 so far this fall.

If those Wolverine women all run at 100% on Friday, and if Tran can replicate the impressiveness of her Cowboy Jamboree result, then I can't imagine a scenario where Wisconsin could match their firepower.

In fact, the Michigan women could easily run away with this team title!

Even so, we have not yet seen the Michigan women all run well on the same day. VanderLende's recent absence is slightly concerning and there are still major questions about the backend of this lineup.

For those reasons, the Wisconsin women are favored...but we don't feel great about it.

The Wisconsin men are clearly and undeniably the best men's cross country team in the BIG 10 this year...and it's not even close.

We all know that Bob Liking is an elite star, especially after seeing him finish 4th overall at Nuttycombe earlier this month, but it's his supporting cast that is so. darn. deep.

Jack Meijer has been having the best cross country season of his college career, Charlie Wheeler looks like he's returning to his peak form from a few seasons ago, the overall depth provided by Rowan Ellenberg, Shuaib Aljably and Evan Bishop looks phenomenal and Jackson Sharp didn't even race at Nuttycombe despite Wisconsin finishing 7th overall.

With Sharp, the Badgers are likely threatening Notre Dame in that field.

The avenues for defeating the Wisconsin men on Friday feel very limited. Even if a team is able to match their firepower at the BIG 10 XC Championships, then they'll still overwhelm you with their depth (and vice versa).

The Michigan men, on paper, could at least make things interesting through three runners.

The combination of Arjun Jha, Nick Foster and Tom Brady is very scary when each of them are firing on all cylinders. So far this season, Jha has finished 22nd at Joe Piane and 46th at Nuttycombe. Foster has finished 15th at Joe Piane and 192nd at Nuttycombe. Brady has finished 56th at Nuttycombe.

In a world where everyone has their best race, those three men could all realistically finish ahead of Wisconsin's second scorer, who will likely be either Sharp, Meijer or Wheeler.

But even if that does happen, then the backend support of Wisconsin would likely be too much for the Michigan men to overcome. While Big Blue have boasted great firepower this fall, they haven't all run well on the same day and their final two or three scorers have opened up significant gaps in their recent meets.

And against a Wisconsin group that is seven-men deep, that's going to be tough to get around.

As for the rest of this field, the Michigan State men do have a few underrated talents, some of whom are either due for a breakout race or should be able to rebound from their latest Nuttycombe effort.

In our eyes, Riley Hough, CarLee Stimpfel, Aden Smith and Abdifetah Ahmed all have room for improvement and/or a breakout race.

The Spartans could put together a much more cohesive scoring group than I think some people may realize, but they're probably a year away from being able to topple the Michigan men.

Defeating Wisconsin is likely not going to happen for any of these BIG 10 teams on Friday. Instead, the challenge will be to limit how many points the rest of the conference can force the Badgers to tally.

In our estimation, that total is 21 points, although that scoring range could be anywhere from 17 points to 32 points. I guess we'll find out in a few days...

I love the BIG 10, mainly because it is a historically deep conference that has always has a handful of names on the verge of a breakout race. And in 2022, there are a handful of men who I would like everyone to monitor for Friday's race.

Iowa's Nick Trattner and Max Murphy has been sneaky-good in recent seasons. The former just finished 39th at Pre-Nationals (in what was admittedly a "down" year for the meet) while Murphy is someone who finished 4th at the Gans Creek Classic.

Murphy has also run 3:40 for 1500 meters, 7:59 for 3000 meters, 13:58 for 5000 meters and 28:57 for 10,000 meters. He's had a few decent cross country races as of late, but is very clearly due for something far more grand this postseason.

Indiana's Jake Gebhardt is another underrated talent who has a well-balanced resume. Finishing 11th at the IU Coaching Tree Invite was fine and placing 64th at Paul Short was a bit underwhelming, but his most recent 69th place finish at Nuttycombe was a nice step in the right direction.

And for a guy who has run 7:59 (3k) and 8:53 (steeple), there seems to be some untapped firepower that he is sitting on. As he goes into a conference meet that is truthfully not as deep as it has been in year's past, Gebhardt could find himself in the top-10.

Be sure to also keep an eye on Illinois' Colin Yandel. He's had a few decent results so far this fall and has produced some nice consistency as well.

Unbelievably, Ohio State superstar Addie Engel is the only woman from the BIG 10 listed our in our XC Top 50 rankings right now. She currently sits at TSR #20.

But truthfully, even if other women, specifically Ericka VanderLende, were running at 100% this season, we would probably still have Engel as the individual title favorite in this field. She has been SO good between last year and now.

Few women in this conference have been more consistent than Engel has and even fewer women have been able to be competitive with some of the top names in the country like Engel has.

Remember, this Ohio State ace finished 4th at the BIG 10 XC Championships last year. Earlier this season, she won the Michigan BIG 10 Preview over VanderLende, Windemuller, teammate Daniella Santos and Rachel McCardell.

Engel has also earned two silver medal results, one at the Griak Invitational (losing only to Emily Venters) and one at the Arturos Barrios Invitational (losing only to Parker Valby).

We haven't really talked about Engel a ton this year, and that's why I felt like it was appropriate to highlight her. She could end up being a top-tier All-American in the postseason and it's probably best that you know about her before conference weekend begins.

However, maybe more importantly, Friday will be a massively important race for Engel's team, Ohio State, as well as Illinois and Northwestern.

Those three teams are probably on the outside-looking-in right now as far as national qualification is concerned.

I really like Northwestern. The Wildcats are led by a very underrated low-stick in Rachel McCardell, they brought in a high-impact transfer from the D3 ranks in Ari Marks and the rest of this of this lineup has developed beautifully. They also beat Illinois earlier this season.

Seeing what Coach Jill Miller has done with this program is inspiring. Her team has very clearly progressed with each passing season and they are actually delivering on their potential when it comes to being competitive with some top teams.

Beating a solid Illinois squad is really encouraging, especially since the Fighting Illini' women took down a fully-loaded Toledo squad back in September. If the Wildcats can finish 4th overall on Friday, then they might have a distant shot at qualifying for the national meet.

And if they finish 3rd? Potentially over Michigan State? Then may be a Kolas scenario where they could sneak-in to the national meet.

I'm not expecting that, but it is interesting to monitor.

However, the same thing could be said about Illinois and Ohio State. Earlier this season, the Fighting Illini' proved that they could field a complete and balanced top-five by defeating Toledo. As for Ohio State, they have one of the best 1-2 punches in this field via Addie Engel and Daniella Santos. How far can that duo carry the Buckeyes on Friday?

Be sure to make note of what happens with those teams later this week. Each of those programs are just interesting enough to keep them in mind for our Kolas projections.

Teams (Men)

Individuals (Men)

Teams (Women)

Individuals (Women)