TSR Collaboration
Feb 1, 202314 min
Written by Brett Haffner, Kevin Fischer & Hannah Thorn
Additional comments and edits by John Cusick & Garrett Zatlin
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Kevin: He's definitely the 5000 meter title favorite as well. He won it last winter, is the defending cross country champion and is even better than he already has been.
There are multiple men in D3 now running incredibly fast times in the event -- Elias Lindgren, Matthew Kearney and Ryan Kredell, to be exact -- but none of them are on the level of Phillip.
His career 5k best is 13:58, but I think he's in a lot better shape than that based on what he did in Boston this past weekend. The only way I see him not winning the 5k national title is if he scratches it and helps John Carroll go all-in for the DMR.
And while that’s a possibility, it’s hard to believe that Phillip won’t try and cap off his D3 indoor track career with back-to-back national titles in the 5k.
As far as the mile goes, I don't think there is a clear favorite and I don't see Phillip racing it at the national meet. That's a pretty wide-open event where you have Jamie Moreland who just ran 4:03, Ezra Ruggles who ran 3:44 in the 1500 meters last spring and Sam Verkerke who is the defending 1500 meter national champion.
There are several other guys who could contend for the national title in the mile come March.
Brett: There’s no doubt that Phillip is still the favorite in the 5000 meters even though he hasn’t contested the event this winter.
Phillip’s strength-based skills and tactical prowess at the national level will only aid him in his quest to repeat as a national champion in the 5000 meters. The Division Three record of 13:53, set by Dan Meyer in 1994, will certainly be under watch as Phillip’s indoor personal best sits at 13:58 from last year.
Kevin said it best. I don’t see Phillip not running the 5000 meters at the NCAA Indoor Championships and I don’t see Phillip contesting the mile at the NCAA Indoor Championships.
Frankly, with the crazy talent in the mile that we’ve seen already (in JANUARY, mind you), there are a plethora of guys who could seriously challenge or ultimately take down Phillip in a fast indoor mile.
Hannah: He clearly is going to be the favorite in the 5000 meters.
We have yet to see him run the event, but we eventually will and when it happens, the D3 collegiate record will be on watch. John Carroll has the Boston University Valentine meet on their schedule and a meet at Grand Valley State. Both are prime locations for Phillip to qualify for the national meet and potentially set some more history in a Blue Streaks uniform.
Kevin brings up an interesting point saying that we could see Phillip scratch the 5k if that meant he was going to anchor John Carroll’s DMR team.
They bring back three-quarters of last year's national qualifying team. Garrett Clark (400), Caleb Correia (800) and Ethan Domitrovich (mile) all return for the Blue Streaks. The John Carroll men could move Domitrovich to the 1200 meter leg and have Phillip as the anchor.
After all, Phillip was the anchor when John Carroll set the D3 DMR collegiate record last year.
There are very few men who could keep up with Phillip if his team was able to hand off with a lead, although that would also depend on where JCU is when they pass the baton and who else is anchoring their relays.
With that said, I’m not sure if Phillip will forgo the individual success after a record-breaking season. Only time will tell what he decides, but whichever event(s) he chooses, he’ll be the national title favorite.
Kevin: I'm going to go with the U. of Chicago Maroons.
It’s largely because of the mile depth that they flexed this past weekend at the Aurora Grand Prix. A mile mark of 4:57 last year would have very comfortably gotten into the indoor national meet -- and now Chicago has four women who have run faster than that in one race.
After that performance, the Maroons now have seven combined women in the top-16 on the national leaderboard for the mile and the 3000 meters. They have four athletes inside the top-12 of the mile ranging from 4:53 to 4:57. They also have five athletes inside the top-20 for the 3000 meters, ranging from track converted marks of 9:48 to 9:59.
Maddie Kelley ran a 4:53 mile time (NCAA #1) and a track converted 9:48 mark for 3000 meters (NCAA #6). Meanwhile, Evelyn Battleson-Gunkel ran a 4:56 mile (NCAA #5) and a track converted 9:57 mark over 3000 meters (NCAA #17).
Don't forget about Cat Wimmer who ran a 4:56 mile (NCAA #7) and Nora Holmes who ran a 4:57 mile (NCAA #12), each moving into the top-12 of the national leaderboard.
When going up in distance, Anna Kenig-Ziesler, Katarina Birimac and Frances Schaeffler posted track converted times of 9:55, 9:57 and 9:59 for 3000 meters and find themselves inside the top-20 of the event.
Washington U. has had a great past couple of weeks as well. They now have four women who have converted marks of 2:15 or faster in the 800 meters. Emily Konkus and Ella Behrens were impressive at the I-55 Invite, but ultimately, when everything is combined, it’s not the same level of dominance that we have seen from the Maroons.
Brett: It’s no contest, U. of Chicago’s depth continues to be wildly impressive.
When you consider that their SEVENTH fastest miler has run a mile time of 5:05 this season, it’s really hard to expand on how loaded this team is at the moment. They’re going to have options upon options for crafting a DMR for the NCAA Indoor Championships. Along with that, they will likely qualify multiple women in every distance event, as well.
Might that lead them to an overall team podium finish at the NCAA Indoor Championships?
We’ll have to see...
However, when it comes to the 800 meters, Washington U. might have that event locked up.
Emma Kelley entered the new year as the NCAA #1 in the half-mile event, but is now joined by three teammates inside the top-10 on the national leaderboard. Aoife Dunne posted a track converted mark of 2:11 and that’s currently good enough for NCAA #2 on the national leaderboard. Alessia Sarussi and Sophie Fox both received conversions of 2:15, good enough for NCAA #9 and NCAA #10 on the national leaderboard, respectively.
The Bears are flexing some serious depth in the half-mile event. And considering how well this team performs in the postseason, it might not be a stretch to see three or four All-Americans in the 800 meters come from Washington U.
It’s just not enough to put them ahead of the Maroons over the last two weeks.
Hannah: I think U. of Chicago has had the better last two weeks, but Washington U. still has time to showcase their depth.
Ella Behrens is sitting at NCAA #11 on the national leaderboard in the 3000 meters, but is still looking to run a fast 5000 meter time. Emily Konkus is listed at NCAA #7 on the national leaderboard for 3000 meters and NCAA #10 in the mile.
Konkus has also not yet toed the line for a 5k this winter. She has the talent to throw down a top-five time over that distance which would lead to her being nationally ranked in three separate events.
Lindsay Ott is another Bear who had a great cross country season. She was 23rd at the cross country national meet this past fall and we are waiting to see that success translate to the track. She did run a 3k PR of 10:16 earlier this season, but needs to drop that time a little further to make it to her first national meet, individually.
If you take two of the three women who I mentioned above and add Aoife Dunne as the third, then you have yourself a stellar DMR team. And with that theoretical lineup, I think the Bears could perform better than their 7th place relay showing from last year’s indoor national meet.
It also doesn't hurt that Maddie Kelly is overwhelming national title favorite in the women's 800 meters, giving Washington U. an argument that they may be just as competitive as the Maroons are/can be.
Of course, we're only talking about the last two weeks, and in that case, the U. of Chicago women were just flat-out better.
Kevin: It was absolutely a 10. It’s one the best overall regular season meets that we have ever seen from a Division Three distance and middle distance group. The notable performances from Friday are a really long list spanning across every distance event, so bare with me.
Charlie Glass ran 1:51 (NCAA #5) in the 800 meters. Jared Steins and Simon Opsahl both broke 2:30 for 1000 meters. Henry Hardart put together a really encouraging mile time of 4:09 (NCAA #10).
Sam Acquaviva flirted with the eight-minute barrier, running 8:00 in the 3000 meters for the third-best time in Division Three history. Ryan Wilson moved up in distance and more than held his own, running 8:11 (NCAA #8) in the 3k.
And finally, we saw huge breakouts from Matthew Kearney (14:01) and Andrew Mah (14:10) in the 5k. Those two shaved more than 10 seconds off of their personal bests, but more importantly, Kearney’s time is the fourth-fastest all-time and Mah’s time is the tenth-fastest all-time.
Oh, and then the next day, they put together a DMR team that ran 9:44. That time is the third-fastest mark in Division Three history and just three seconds off of the D3 record.
Among all of these results, the one that stands out to me the most Glass’ half-mile effort of 1:51. That result from Glass was unexpected as he’s a true freshman who ran 1:56 in high school. The potential to be great has always been there for him, but he is breaking through really early-on in his college career.
Barring something crazy, he is likely safe in terms of qualifying for the indoor national meet. Of course, with all the success that we saw from MIT this past weekend, we could quietly see Glass turn into another superstar for the Engineers.
Brett: It has to be a rating of 10 and it rivals the time when Pomona-Pitzer had 16 athletes under the 15:00 (5k) barrier in a single meet last spring.
See Kevin’s analysis above for all of the exact times, but there are just so many impressive feats to discuss! In particular, I’m really impressed with Matthew Kearney running 14:01 in the 5000 meters and Ryan Wilson who ran 8:11 in the 3000 meters.
Kearney has always been a solid competitor, who flirts with All-American status season-in and season-out, but wow...this was the performance of a legitimate contender! In my eyes, this result automatically throws him into top-five consideration on the national stage for 5000 meters. In fact, he’s right near the current PRs of Alex Phillip and Elias Lindgren.
On the other hand, Wilson is supposed to be a tried-and-true middle distance runner, but has completely subverted those expectations in the 2022-2023 campaign. A 5th place finish at the NCAA XC Championships, followed by an 8:11 performance in the 3000 meters, only shows that this dude might have the best overall range in Division Three!
How will this translate to his main event, the 800 meters? That question begs to be answered, but we are excited to see how the rest of his season unfolds.
Hannah: It’s easily a 10 out of 10.
I think both Brett and Kevin laid out why these performances were so impressive, so I’ll jump into the most impressive performance that I saw.
For me, I think we have to look closer at Andrew Mah’s performance. His best 5k time coming into this weekend came at Boston University last year where he ran 14:25. That time seemed to be an outlier as he never came close to that performance again, running 14:49 and 14:55 in his two other attempts at the distance.
After the best cross country season of his career, expectations for Mah were high, but what he delivered was far from what we could have anticipated. It’s been nine weeks since we’ve seen Mah’s last race, but this weekend’s performance was well worth the wait. His 14:10 personal best is massive and it’s currently the NCAA #5 time on the national leaderboard this season.
We still have to wait to see a few more runners make their 5k debuts this season, but I don’t think we should downplay how good of a race this was for Mah.
Kevin: As great as Clara Mayfield is, her rivalry with Fiona Smith has been pretty one-sided, so it wasn't surprising to see Smith win this one.
With that being said, this was a huge step in the right direction for Mayfield who has had a slow start to the season. She seems to be back to the high level of racing that she has reached in the past and you can't rule her out for a national title bid.
Fiona Smith entered the season as the national title favorite, and she still is, but the event looks a little more open after this past weekend. I'd give Smith a 55% chance to win it while there is a 15% chance (each) for Annika Urban and Ana Tucker. I would then say 10% for Mayfield and 5% for the rest of the field.
Brett: Over the next few weeks, we’ll see the bulk of national-qualifying attempts in the 5000 meters begin to heavily populate the Division Three national leaderboard.
Even considering that, I don’t see my opinion of Fiona Smith as the 5k favorite changing too much. She’s currently the savviest national performer in Division Three and continues to run amazing marks with little or no competition to chase.
We haven’t seen her step down to the mile this winter, but her 4:55 PR in the event certainly speaks volumes and it wouldn’t come as a surprise if she ran faster than that when given the opportunity. When thinking about her national title chances, there isn’t much evidence to suggest that anyone other than Smith should be the national title favorite.
However, Ana Tucker and Annika Urban have been really impressive this winter and are the two women who should be Smith’s greatest threats come the national meet. They’ve recently lowered their personal bests in the mile to 4:56 which should land them a national meet bid in that event, although it's unclear if they would actually contest that event.
Tucker’s distance-oriented strength and Urban’s prowess in the 1500 meters certainly oppose each other’s skillsets, but could very well make for different strategies in an event like the 5000 meters when faced up against Smith.
Tucker could make a push from a longer distance out whereas Urban could bide her time and employ a strong kick at the last second. Strategies we’ve seen both ladies use before could easily show up at the national meet!
Nonetheless, I’d still give Smith a 70% chance to secure the 5k national title while I'd give Tucker and Urban 15% chances, each.
Hannah: Honestly, I think a name we are forgetting is Alex Ross from Johns Hopkins. I thought we learned from the cross country season to never count out Johns Hopkins.
I guess we still have some learning to do...
Her 16:41 (5k) PR is from December and we may not see her race another fast 5k before the NCAA Indoor Championships. She hasn’t raced since the return from winter break, but that isn't surprising when thinking about how Johns Hopkins’ historically sets up their schedule. It also means that Ross will likely be fresher than most athletes when the indoor national meet rolls around next month.
History tells us that Ross isn’t afraid of attacking a race as she and Kassie Parker tried to chase down Ari Marks in the 10,000 meters last spring at the NCAA Outdoor Championships. While it ultimately didn’t work, it showed us that Ross isn’t afraid to take risks in a race.
And taking a risk, tactically, can occasionally pay off big-time.
That said, I want to give Fiona Smith the best chance at winning the national title. I think she has earned it, but I want to spread the love around. I say Smith has a 50% chance and Ross has a 30% chance. Tucker and Urban both get 10% chances, each.
Kevin: One woman who deserves some recognition is Sofia Carlson from St. Olaf.
She had some struggles during the 2022 cross country season, but her talent has always been there and she has been proving that as of late. Her converted 16:58 (5k) last week was one of the best races of her life and it currently pus her at NCAA #6 on the national leaderboard for the event.
For the men, I'll go with Ryan Kredell. He had a meteoric rise during the fall and is continuing that trend with a 14:02 (5k) mark at Boston University. He is proving that cross country was no fluke and that he is a name who can be realistically mentioned in national title conversations.
Brett: Maddie Kelly has been on a tear over the last few weeks of racing, capped off by running an incredible 4:53.94 mark in the mile, which is currently the top time in D3.
Kelly has always been a solid member of the Maroons’ deep talent pool as she was a member of the DMR squad that placed 3rd at the 2022 NCAA Indoor Championships last winter. She also qualified for the 1500 meter finals at the 2022 NCAA Outdoor Championships, ultimately placing 12th overall.
But now, after a 36th place finish at the NCAA XC Championships from this past fall, Kelly has clearly become a top contender in the mile and a very strong competitor over 3000 meters. Might she already be a leading contender to win the mile title at the indoor national meet? Or will she help contribute to a national title-winning DMR with her U. of Chicago teammates?
Now for the men...
The last time that Sam Acquaviva ran a PR in the 3000 meters was in 2020 at the John Thomas Terrier Classic where he ran 8:35.30.
Three years later, at the same meet, Acquaviva ran 8:00.41 for 3000 meters which now sits at NCAA #3 all-time, but would be listed at NCAA #4 all-time if you include oversized track marks.
We’ve already known how great he is from his exploits on the grass in 2022, but his resume on the oval hasn’t been up to par, in comparison. However, this race was a defining one for Acquaviva who has made it quite apparent that he’ll be a force to be reckoned with on the oval this year.
But since we haven’t seen too much from him on the track, where will he be his best at? Might we see him rip a quick 5000 meter time in the near future? Or will he step down to the mile and take a shot at a national mark?
For now, he remains a mystery for us in where he’ll shine best at, but to see him only finish a few seconds behind Phillip (albeit, in different heats) shows that he could certainly contend for a national title come the NCAA Indoor Championships.
Hannah: For the women, I am going with Gillian Roeder from MIT. She didn’t race winter, so this is our first time seeing her on the indoor track and she has been impressive so far.
Roeder ran 2:18 for 800 meters at the MIT Tri-Meet in her debut, but that was just the start. At Boston University this past weekend, she dropped a very fast mile time, clocking a pleasantly surprising mark of 4:54.37.
That performance is currently NCAA #2 on the national leaderboard and less than half a second behind Maddie Kelly for the top spot. This was a massive result for Roeder and I am excited to see what else she can do this year.
Because if she was able to do that in January despite holding very limited indoor track experience...then what can she do in February?
For the men, I am going with Gavin McElhennon from Johns Hopkins. His 14:19 (5k) at the Patriot Games was 20 seconds faster than what he ran at this same meet last year. And with the track conversion, his time moves to 14:10 and puts him at NCAA #4 on the national leaderboard.
McElhennon is seen as more of a 3000 meter specialist during the indoor track season which is strange, because during the spring months, he moves up to the 5k and the 10k. So hopefully, this fast time will convince him to stay at the 5k and compete for his first All-American honor on the oval.