TSR Collaboration
Feb 15, 202317 min
Written by Brett Haffner, Hannah Thorn & Kevin Fischer
Additional comments & edits by John Cusick and Garrett Zatlin
Do you have an interest in writing for The Stride Report? We're looking for D1 women's writers, high school writers and potentially NAIA writers. Want to know more? Read this and send us an email at contact@thestridereport.com to let us know!
Hannah: Hands down, the men’s 5k should be the best race at this year's indoor national meet. But historically, that is a little tougher to judge.
Patzka, Gregg and Phillip are all bold runners and not afraid to take a race out hard. Just look at cross country national meet where Gregg tried to break away from the field and Patzka was able to stick with Phillip until the last 600 meters or so.
I think every fan dreams that all three men will enter the 5k in March and no one decides to opt-out. And because they are all distance specialists, I don’t think we will see any of them skip out on this race in favor of the mile. At a bare minimum, just getting them all in one national meet field sounds great.
I predict that all three men will do the 5k/3k double and we might even see all of them attempt to double back for the DMR that same night as they all are a part of strong teams.
Hopefully, their full attention will be on the 5k and we will get a memorable race. But historically, that may be a little tougher to argue. It's one thing if two guys are running at their absolute best, but now we need three men to firing at 100% for this to be an all-time battle.
Brett: I don’t think I could choose the right words to describe the Earth-shattering performances from these three men this past weekend in just a few sentences. However, for the benefit of this group chat article (and to unfortunately muddle my excitement), I’ll keep things brief.
Obviously, Phillip, Patzka and Gregg were the past weekend's headliners, having dipped all under the record of 13:53. But Sam Acquaviva running 13:57 and Elias Lindgren posting a time of 14:00 are only going to make the 5000 meter field that much tougher.
With all five names likely to run this event at the indoor national meet, I'll say that this will be the greatest five-man race in Division Three history.
And the biggest takeaway from this weekend? Alex Phillip is not a lock to win the national title in the 5000 meters like we may have previously thought. With this event's immense breadth of talent this year, I think we’ll see very few scratches from the top-20 entries, if any.
Come back in a few weeks to see if this prediction will hold.
Kevin: I think it will be one of the most exciting races in Division Three history, but I’m not sure that it’s fair to call this a three-man race when seven guys in D3 have run 14:02 or faster over 5000 meters this season.
For good measure, just three years ago, you would be NCAA #1 on the national leaderboard if you ran 14:12. But a time of 14:12 now puts you at NCAA #13 (!) on this year’s indoor national leaderboard...which is ridiculous.
A couple of weeks ago, we figured that this was Phillip’s race to lose. But even though he ran a national record this weekend, he ended the night at NCAA #3 on the national leaderboard after conversions for Patzka and Gregg. I still think he’ll be the favorite when you put him in a championship setting, but it will be harder for him to win gold than we originally thought.
In addition to these three guys, Sam Acquaviva and Elias Lindgren will make the most serious challenges for the national title. Acquaviva is coming off of two incredible races, having gone 8:00 (3k) and 13:57 (5k). Plus, you know that Lindgren will always keep himself in the mix for most of the race.
Hannah: I think we will see two more ladies run sub-9:30 (3k) this indoor track season.
Clara Mayfield, Ana Tucker, Aubrie Fisher, Maddie Hannan and Alex Ross could all flirt with the 9:30 barrier over 3000 meters, especially after you factor-in conversions. But given the limited time left in the season and the tactics of conference championships, I don't see all of those women dipping under 9:30.
On the national stage, I can see Fiona Smith making this an aggressive race. It’s what she did last year with Kassie Parker and she benefits the most from it out of these women. After conversions, she does have a faster time than Urban by five seconds. She is the national title favorite coming into this race (for good reason) and if she comes in with confidence, then she could attempt to run away with it.
Now, I’m not saying that running away with NCAA gold in this event it will be easy. There are a few women who would benefit from this being a more tactical race. Urban, my mind, could be one of them.
Urban and Smith are pretty much equal in events from the mile up and to the 5000 meters, but Smith gets the slightest edge each time. She might want to make this one a foot race and hope that her speed is a touch better than Smith’s when they line up against each other in March.
Maddie Hannan is the other runner who could benefit from a slower race. Her time of 9:50 (3k) was run in a field that wasn’t super deep, as showcased by her 10-second victory.
When we look at closing speed while comparing athletes, Hannan’s ability sticks out. She has a 2:11 (800) PR which is by far the best in the field. If the UW-La Crosse ace chooses to enter the 3000 meters at the NCAA Indoor Championships, then she could benefit from a more tactical race and turn the burners on over the last few laps.
Brett: I like Clara Mayfield and Aubrie Fisher’s odds of dipping under the sub-9:30 (3k) barrier.
In Mayfield’s case, she always has great opportunities to race against solid competition like Fiona Smith (a lot). That alone could certainly pull her to a big mark, even if it’s at the indoor national meet in a few weeks. Historically, she’s been a strong performer at national meets which will help her regardless of a fast or slow pace.
For Fisher, she is not afraid to take any race by the horns and we could see her go after a fast mark in the 3000 meters at her conference meet in a couple of weeks. If the indoor national meet gets out hard, then I think Fisher would be one of the few women to really benefit from a fast pace, especially with her longer distance strengths playing into her hands.
In reality, I think it’s going to be really hard to beat Fiona Smith or Annika Urban.
That duo is ranked NCAA #1 and NCAA #2 in the mile, the 3000 meters and the 5000 meters, demonstrating their stronghold on Division Three in 2023.
After seeing Urban’s success in the 1500 meters at last year’s outdoor national meet, one may assume that her foot-speed holds the edge over Smith’s. But their personal bests are nearly identical and despite rarely ever stepping down in distance, Smith holds the slight edge in all of the events.
Considering her slight edge on the NCAA leaderboards, her continued success on the national scene and her obvious improvement in speed this year, I’m going to have to lean toward Fiona Smith and give her the early nod as the national title favorite in the 3000 meters.
Kevin: I think Clara Mayfield and Ana Tucker both have good chances at a sub-9:30 mark over 3000 meters if they can get into fast fields before the indoor national meet.
Alex Ross could get close if she’s healthy, but it is a little concerning that she hasn’t raced since her season opener in December. Then we have Maddie Kelly who has run 9:33 for the distance and is knocking on the door of that barrier, but it’s hard to say how much faster she can go given how great of a 3k race that already was for her.
Smith will likely be coming off of a 5k the night before, but other top contenders may not be fresh either, so an aggressive pace could still serve her well.
It will be difficult to drop runners of her caliber, but Smith is five seconds ahead of the rest of the field when factoring in conversions. So even on tired legs, she can make people hurt and pull away.
As distances get shorter, her advantage over the likes of Urban and Mayfield begins to diminish, so in a sit-and-kick affair, a lot more would be left up to chance and the door would be open for one of Urban or Mayfield to win their first national title.
Hannah: It’s absolutely wild that this record went under the radar as it was broken only once and not three times this past weekend. Yes, Wilson is easily the mile national title favorite, but across all men’s distances…that’s a toss-up. At the moment, I am leaning towards yes.
The 5000 meters is incredibly deep right now and the idea of Alex Phillip as an overwhelming favorite is dwindling. The 800 meters has two men under the 1:50 barrier, but if Wilson were to contest the event, then he’d be the favorite solely because of his history.
For the 3000 meters, Alex Phillip does have the fastest time in D3 so far this winter by seven seconds. That can obviously change, especially after we saw how fit Christian Patzka and Ethan Gregg are right now.
Meanwhile, in the mile, I am not sure anyone else can break four minutes in the mile. Bennett Booth-Genthe is close at 4:01.90, but that was at Boston University and he isn’t racing there anymore this year.
Wilson's biggest threats in the mile are Booth-Genthe, Travis Martin, Jamie Moreland and Matthew Lecky. After listing those names out, I don’t think anyone can take Wilson down. Especially when you consider his half-mile speed, he looks unbeatable.
Want to make it a fast race? Ok, he is one of four men in D3 to ever go sub-4:00.
Want to make it a last-second foot race? Ok, he is the reigning 800 meter national champion from last year’s indoor and outdoor track seasons.
I don’t think he chooses the 800 meters over the mile, either. There's (almost) zero shot that happens. He hasn’t run that event so far this year and has been focusing on longer events like the mile, the 3000 meters and MIT’s DMR. I see him picking the mile/DMR double over the mile/800 double.
Brett: For the record, Ryan Wilson ran an 11-second PR in the mile to jump from 4:06 down to 3:55. I think that’s noteworthy to acknowledge!
We knew that Wilson would run some groundbreaking marks this season, but I don’t think this was expected. After coming through 1209 meters in 2:58, he closed his final two laps in 27.73 and 28.80, respectively. Who in Division Three can replicate that kind of closing speed off of an already burning-hot pace?
Akin to what Hannah said, I think seeing him do the mile/DMR double at the NCAA Indoor Championships is most likely. However, I’m not going to entirely eliminate the possibility of him contesting the 800 meters. Historically, that’s his tried-and-true specialty as he’s the reigning indoor and outdoor national champion in the event.
With three weeks left before the indoor national meet, will we see Wilson try to run a barn-burner in the 800 meters? Selfishly, I sure hope so, because who knows how much he can subvert our expectations by once again!
Regardless, when you consider that he has run six seconds faster in the mile than ANYONE in Division Three has this year, there’s a very small chance that he wouldn’t contest the mile at the indoor national meet as he’s the easy favorite.
Kevin: A couple of weeks ago, I said that the mile was a wide-open event with no clear favorite. And right now, it looks like I was very wrong.
There were some signs that Ryan Wilson could run a great mile. Based on his solid 3000 meter performance and top-five cross country national meet finish, it was clear that he had developed some more strength to go along with his 800 meter prowess. He was already a 4:06 mile guy last year, so it wouldn’t have been shocking to see him in the 3:59-to 4:02 range this past weekend.
But a 3:55 mile is just a different level than I ever expected to see, especially with such a fast close. Even though we are seeing yet another incredibly deep season in the mile with seven guys having run under 4:05, I don’t think anybody can hang with Wilson over that distance.
He is the closest thing to a lock of anyone in any distance event in D3 regardless of how fast the pace is.
It is not exactly clear where his 800 meter fitness is, but he appears capable of putting down a big mark in that event if he goes for it. Right now, though, I agree with Brett and Hannah that he will contest the mile at the indoor national meet.
The only way I could see him going the 800 meter route is in a mile/half-mile double where he is not in the DMR. MIT has enough depth where they may not be able to win the relay without him, but can still place inside the top-eight to earn All-American honors.
And if you can get 20 points from Wilson in individual events in addition to a few DMR points, then that would go a long way in the team title race.
Hannah: The most impressive athlete was Ellie Rising from George Fox.
This is her first track season and not only that, it’s her first track race of the season! She has seemingly come out of nowhere to drop a 2:12.03 (800) mark at the Husky Classic. Yes, Rising did qualify for cross country national meet this past fall, but she finished 101st in that race.
After looking more into Rising, we find that she is a transfer from Seattle Pacific and ran 2:11.91 (800) during the outdoor track season last year. So although she is new to us at the D3 level, she is not new to running fast.
I think Aoife Dunne might be the only one to join Emma Kelley under 2:10 of the half-mile distance this season. She was oh-so-close this past weekend, posting a converted 2:10.70 mark. If you factor-in that she trains with Kelley, then I think it’s possible for her to do it.
Brett: I’m really impressed with Maddie Hannan’s performance from the Midwest ELITE Invitational where she ran 2:12.38 over 800 meters (converted to 2:10) to finish just behind Emma Kelley and Aoife Dunne.
Yes, Hannan is someone who has established her speed in previous seasons, but her all-around abilities in the middle distance events in 2023 have been remarkable. Hannan currently sits at NCAA #3 for 800 meters, NCAA #8 in the mile and NCAA #9 over 3000 meters.
Not to mention, she nearly took down Division Three’s two best 800 meter runners in their specialty! That was an impressive result that should certainly be recognized for its magnitude.
I think Dunne and Hannan have the best chance of breaking the 2:10 barrier in the 800 meters, but I’m not sure if we’ll see Hannan contest the event for the rest of this season.
In the 800 meters, we normally see a handful of breakout performances in this event during the final two weeks of the regular season at conference championships and last-chance meets, so there could very well be a surprise name or two who makes a big jump in a clutch situation.
Kevin: I’m most impressed with Libby Ranocha of Emory.
Going into the season, her personal best in the 800 meters was 2:19. However, she opened her season with a 2:18, broke through with a 2:14 mark last week and then set a third consecutive PR this past weekend at Boston University, running 2:12.47.
It is pretty difficult to follow up a breakthrough race with another breakthrough race, but Ranocha has managed to do just that.
I agree with Hannah that Aoife Dunne can run under 2:10 for the half-mile given how close she has already come, but I’m not convinced anyone else in D3 can this season.
In the women’s 800 meters, we have seen several All-Americans and national qualifiers from previous seasons have underwhelming starts to this season. Runners such as Delaney Sall, Maeve Hoffman, Anna Schueth, Allison Uhl, Kelty Oaster and Alexandra Maddux all currently sit outside of the top-20 on the national leaderboard for the event.
That has opened up the floor for some new stars to break out, but it is a little concerning given how little time is left until the postseason. I think some of those names will have bounce-back outdoor track seasons and dip under 2:10 (800) in the spring, but I don’t think any of them will do it in the next few weeks.
Hannah: It’s not crazy to think that Loras could still run faster.
Typically, most teams put together some fast DMRs at last chance meets the week after their conference championships -- and I think Loras will take advantage of that despite not needing to. They have the best time in Division Three by four seconds and have a lock on qualifying for the 2023 indoor national meet.
It is hard to say who is the favorite to win the DMR national title as we never truly know who is actually going to run the relay. For Loras, I think Wyatt Kelly, Mike Jasa and Ryan Harvey will all be doubling back from the 800 meters or the mile.
Will they want to solely focus on their individual event since they have to run multiple rounds? Or will they jump into the DMR? Something tells me they and their backwards hats are all-in on the DMR.
For SUNY Geneseo, they are theoretically the biggest threat to Loras.
Nick Andrews could choose to run the 5k, but that would prove to be a very difficult double in addition to the DMR. He hasn’t raced the event this season, but he did finish...
- 9th over 5000 meters at the 2022 NCAA Indoor Championships
- 7th over 5000 meters at the 2022 NCAA Outdoor Championships
- 6th at the 2022 NCAA XC Championships
...so it would be strange if he didn’t race a fast 5k at least once this year. And when/if he does, that would further complicate the Knights being threats to Loras.
Brett: I doubt we’ll see the Duhawks run faster this year.
The opportunity of running at Boston University Valentine Invitational allowed them to post a really fast time, so they won’t have to worry about chasing times until the indoor national meet.
I was a little concerned seeing some “off” performances from Mike Jasa and Ryan Harvey in doubling back the day after their record-setting DMR, but their relay heroics were so impressive that I won’t put too much stock on their second day of racing.
It’s clear that MIT has the depth to interchange many names on their potential DMR, but if Ryan Wilson runs the anchor leg, then that may heavily skew things in the Engineers’ favor.
Now, if Jasa splits 1:48.0 on his 800 meter leg as he did at Boston University, that might give Harvey enough of a stopgap to maintain a lead on the anchor leg. All in all, if Ryan Wilson runs the DMR, then MIT will be my favorite to win gold.
If Wilson does not run the DMR, then I’d side with the Loras Duhawks to win the national title.
Kevin: They are capable of running a faster time, but they won’t have the need or opportunity to do that this year. The next DMR they run will likely be at the indoor national meet where they will not be fresh.
If everything goes well, then they certainly can win the DMR in Birmingham, but it truly is the most unpredictable distance event in a championship setting given the number of athletes racing on tired legs and certain changes in lineups.
As Brett mentioned, Mike Jasa and Ryan Harvey’s tough Saturdays the day after setting the DMR D3 record may stir up a little concern regarding their ability to double effectively. But it is more likely that they just had some tough performances after an incredible performance the day before.
Loras does have some depth which gives them the ability to switch things around a little bit if needed. Jasa has run 3:47 over 1500 meters, so if he is needed for one of the longer legs, then he will deliver. And you only lose a second or two on the 800 meter leg if Carter Oberfoell slots in for him.
But with that said, there is no way for the Duhawks to avoid going into this relay on tired legs as scratching individual events isn’t an option when you factor-in the team race.
I do like Brett’s assessment of it coming down to whether or not Ryan Wilson runs for MIT. There are always a higher number of legitimate national title contenders than what it seems, something that was showcased by Washington U. winning the DMR national title last year despite being ranked outside of the top-five.
Hannah: I think an under the radar performance was Scott Sikorski from Rochester running a 4:04.72 (mile) at the Millrose Games.
His previous mile personal best was from the indoor oval (last year) was 4:08. He mainly stuck to 800 meter races in 2022, so no one really saw him as a miler. But Sikorski has been building his aerobic base this year, something has clearly paid off for him as he ran a PR and sits at NCAA #7 on the national leaderboard.
For the women, Windsor Ardner had a great weekend.
After finishing 8th at the cross country national meet, we had high hopes for her aerobic capabilities. Her first 3k of the season was an underwhelming 9:57 mark and it didn’t really live up to our expectations. Luckily, she bounced back this week, running 9:43 (3k) at Boston University.
That was a five-second PR, but also 14 seconds faster than what she ran two weeks ago. That time is currently listed at NCAA #8 on the national leaderboard. Ardner is running a lot closer to what we expected from her.
Brett: On the men’s side, Simon Heys made a really solid jump in the 5000 meters, bringing his personal best down to 14:08 at the GVSU Big Meet, slotting himself in at NCAA #9 on the national leaderboard for the event. Heys has been such a solid name in Division Three for a few years now, but he hadn’t been running to the level that we might have expected from the Wilmington (Ohio) ace.
With the opportunity to compete with a great field, Heys seized his opportunity and punched his ticket to his first NCAA Indoor Championships after some close misses in 2022.
On the women’s side, Jenna Allman of Calvin ran a huge personal best in the 3000 meters at the GVSU Big Meet, jumping from 9:58 down to 9:45 which puts her at NCAA #10 on the national leaderboard in the event.
We’ve seen Allman earn All-American honors once in the DMR with her Calvin teammates and was a near-miss in the steeplechase at last year’s outdoor national meet. Now, Allman is running at a level where she’ll be a serious contender in the 3000 meters to earn an individual All-American honor.
Kevin: For the men, Bennett Booth-Genthe had a huge weekend in the mile that was overshadowed by Ryan Wilson’s record-breaking performance.
It feels pretty crazy to call a 4:01 mile in Division Three “under the radar,” but I think in the context of everything else that happened this weekend, it is appropriate. And it’s even more impressive when you consider that it came the day after a 1:49.01 split on the 800 meter leg of his DMR.
Booth-Genthe was already a 3:45 (1500) and 1:49 (800) guy last spring, so we always have pretty high expectations for him...but these performances more than exceeded those.
On the women’s side, Maddie Kelly deserves some major props for running a 20-second PR in the 3k of 9:33 at GVSU. We’ve largely thought of her as a miler given that she ran 4:53 earlier this season and was a 4:31 (1500) runner last spring. But she really expanded her range with a breakthrough day.
It will be interesting to see whether she goes back down to the mile or sticks to the 3000 meters where she has recently discovered great success.