Admin (Garrett Zatlin)
Feb 11, 202316 min
There's too much to talk about, so let's ignore the fancy introduction and get to some analysis. Here are just a few of the main headlines that we saw on a wild Friday night of action...
I think it's easy to not be surprised by this pair of results.
Anyone who followed the high school middle distance scene knew that Roisin Willis and Juliette Whittaker were among the all-time greats at the prep level. They each ran 1:59 marks over 800 meters and also had monumental success on national and global stages.
And when you consider that they would be able to grow and train alongside each other in Palo Alto, it almost seemed like a forgone conclusion that they would immediately be elite superstars in the NCAA.
But running 1:59 on the outdoor oval in a major championship race is different than running 1:59.95 and 2:00.32 on an indoor oval where your best competition is your teammate. That latter scenario is FAR more impressive, especially when you realize that for both of them, this was their second 800 meter race this season.
If you had told me that Willis and Whittaker were going to run between 2:00 and 2:01 this season, then I would have fully believed that. But 1:59 and 2:00? Does anyone understand the magnitude of those results?
Willis now sits at NCAA #2 all-time in the event behind Athing Mu while Whittaker now sits at NCAA #4 all-time following Michaela Rose's 2:00.18 (NCAA #3 all-time) in Boston last night.
With these results now under their belts, it's fair to suggest that Willis and Whittaker are legitimate contenders for the 800 meter indoor national title this winter. That may not sound surprising, but that's not something that I ever anticipate saying about true rookies.
Yes, I do still have questions about their tactics and how they approach races. Even if they have already toed the line for a handful of wildly competitive races, there is still tremendous value in having consecutive seasons of NCAA experience.
But Willis and Whittaker have so much raw talent that it may not matter how young they are. They may be able to legitimately contend, or even be favored, for NCAA gold this winter based purely on being the fittest women in the field.
In theory, they could just outrun the rest of the field on the national stage.
That scenario does seem hard to believe, especially when you consider how good Lindsey Butler and Michaela Rose have been. And yet, if this Stanford duo is running this fast in February, then how much faster will they be a month from now?
Willis and Whittaker feel like they could be the next Tuohy and Valby of the middle distances...except they're both on the same team. If they stick around in the NCAA for long enough, we could see unparalleled success that changes the way we think about the women's collegiate 800 meters.
There were a ton of questions for LSU's Michaela Rose coming into this weekend.
The Tiger sophomore was a true superstar in high school and showed signs of exciting promise during her rookie year. And after soloing a 2:01 (800) mark in the second-fastest heat at Arkansas a few weeks ago, we had questions about what Rose could in the month of February.
The LSU ace looked incredibly strong in Fayetteville a few weeks back, but she was essentially robbed from being seeded in the top heat and didn't have any competition pushing her en route to that 2:01 result.
How would she handle a field that was far more loaded and crowded?
Well, as it turns out, she would fare even better than she did a couple weeks back.
Rose once again employed a front-running racing style, attacking a loaded women's 800 meter field at the Boston University Valentine Invitational. And even with the improved competition, no one was really close to the rising SEC superstar.
Halfway through, Rose opened up a gap that had many of us at The Stride Report raising our eyebrows and cocking our heads to the side, almost as if to ask, "Are you on pace to go under 2:00 in this race?"
And although she settled for "only" a time of 2:00.18, Rose made history with a mark that now sits at NCAA #3 all-time behind Athing Mu and most recently, Roisin Willis.
This was a massively validating performance for Rose. She looked incredible. Her overall strength was beyond impressive. She was completely unbothered by the talent around her. It was almost startling how convincing her victory was.
There is no denying that this LSU middle distance runner will be in contention for NCAA gold. Truthfully, I would even pick her as my national title favorite if the national meet was tomorrow. That's hard for me to say, mainly because I'm a Virginia Tech alum and I want to find any reason to root for Lindsey Butler.
Yes, I do still have questions about how Rose will fare in slower, more tactically nuanced races. She simply hasn't had to rely on a finishing kick or having anyone around her on the final lap in either of her 800 meter races this season.
But much like I mentioned with Willis and Whittaker, strategy and tactics may not matter much if you're able to hit the gas from the gun and just outrun your competition. Admittedly, that task will be much more challenging when she's facing the likes of Willis, Whittaker and Butler, but right now, Rose looks like she hasn't even reached her full potential yet.
Behind Rose in this race was Imogen Barrett, the Florida middle distance talent who showed tremendous poise throughout all four laps.
The Gator star from Australia has been having a fantastic winter campaign, building on the momentum that she established last spring. Barrett has gone from 2:04 to 2:03 to most recently 2:01 during this indoor track season. Her momentum is at an all-time high, maybe even more so than what we saw from her nine months ago during the outdoor track season.
Of course, this is also the time where I have to raise my hand and say, "my fault."
I was convinced that Barrett should attack the mile this year. She was an indoor national qualifier in the event back in 2019, ran 4:14 for 1500 meters last spring and the women's mile was primed to be more wide-open than the women's 800 meters this year (and depending on who you ask, it still might be).
But Barrett has simply been too good over the half-mile distance for her to pursue anything else on the national stage. She is seemingly peaking at the right time, has looked far more controlled in her efforts this winter and the women's mile is deeper than it ever has been.
Just add this to the list of "bad preseason takes and predictions" that I've had this winter.
As for everyone else, I was fairly impressed by the other performances that we saw, although none of them turned out to be shocking.
Bradley's Wilma Nielsen ran 2:02 for 800 meters, but after running 2:38.95 for 1000 meters, that kind of PR felt like it was due for her. Virginia's Esther Seeland ran 2:03 for the same distance on Friday night, but her resume indicated that she was more than capable of running that kind of time. Texas' Valery Tobias ran 2:04, which isn't all that close to her recent 2:02 mark, but if that's her "worst" performance of the season, then that's probably a good thing.
BYU veteran Claire Seymour just ran 2:04 for 800 meters this past weekend. That may not seem like a big deal, but for someone who had run 2:07 in back-to-back efforts this winter, a jump up in her times feels encouraging.
Sure, Seymour still has a long way to go, but she has built her reputation as someone who peaks for the postseason better than most nationally competitive names.
Here is what I said about Fouad Messaoudi going into Friday's 3k race at the Husky Classic...
And guess what?
It was.
What we've seen from Fouad Messaoudi this year has been nothing short of phenomenal. This Moroccan distance star has gone from someone with the potential to be a nationally competitive name to someone who looks like one of the new faces of NCAA men's distance running.
On Friday night, the breakout Oklahoma State star ran a jaw-dropping time of 7:41 for 3000 meters, taking home a very narrow win over fellow teammate Ryan Schoppe who also had the race of his life (and also ran 7:41).
The Cowboy duo sat right on the pacer through the first mile and then simply attacked the front of this race while their competition settled in behind them. Schoppe led for a good portion of this race before Messaoudi moved around over the final two laps (600 meters to go) and eventually took hold of the lead.
But what impressed me the most was seeing both of these Oklahoma State talents control this race from the front for its entirety. They were relentless and even when Schoppe was passed, he didn't let off the gas. Messaoudi didn't have much room for error over that final lap if Schoppe got enough momentum around the final curve.
Either way, those marks now sit at NCAA #5 all-time and NCAA #7 all-time, respectively, over the 3000 meter distance. I always believed that the 3k distance would/could be Messaoudi and Schoppe's best distance, but running 7:41 is pretty ridiculously fast.
From a tactics standpoint, what kind of role could they play on the national stage? Is it insane to suggest that these two men, specifically Messaoudi could be legitimate threats for NCAA gold? I feel like I'm saying that about everyone, but I don't think it's a stretch.
As for Duncan Hamilton, he had a great race of his own, battling for 3rd place overall and a time of 7:44 over the 3000 meter distance. That was a strong result, but even after watching the race, I'm not sure we learned anything new about Hamilton.
He hung strong and was gritty throughout the entirety of Friday's race, but he just didn't have the turnover to hang with Messaoudi or Schoppe over the final lap. Plus, he already ran a 7:43 (3k) conversion earlier this season, meaning that this was a fairly predictable result.
Leg speed will need to be an area of emphasis for Hamilton if he wants to contend for a 3k All-American honor on the national stage. In terms of raw fitness, he's just as good as a lot of these guys, but Friday's race and a recent upset loss to Wil Smith in the mile shows us that his turnover needs to improve.
Still, he had a nice weekend.
As for Luke Houser, I was CONVINCED that he was more of a 3k runner rather than a miler, even after he ran 3:55 this season. That take, however, seems harder and harder to defend after last night's race.
Don't get me wrong, his 7:48 (3k) was still very strong and a much better indicator of his fitness than what his previous 3k personal best suggested. But I was pretty confident that Houser could run anywhere between 7:44 and 7:46. Who knows? Maybe he still can! But I'll probably have to walk back my hot take and settle for the fact that Houser, as for right now, is predominately a miler.
What a thrilling race.
Arkansas' Lauren Gregory, who could have been viewed as the main favorite in this 3000 meter race, went out with the pacer and continued to grind away at the pace once she had sole hold of the lead.
The Razorback veteran was leading throughout the entirety of the race. But very quietly, we saw Oklahoma State's Taylor Roe gather momentum, moving up through the field and steadily closing the gap on her across-conference rival.
By the final lap, with roughly 150 meters to go, Roe unleashed a huge kick which looked far more potent when you realize that Gregory was fading hard. She covered a massive gap and surged to an overall win while recording a time of 8:56.
But behind Roe was not Gregory. Instead, it was Utah's Simone Plourde who had a lethal kick of her own, running 8:57. She could have caught Roe had there been another 50 to 75 meters in the race. Meanwhile, Baran came through a great kick of her, finishing in a time of 8:58 while Gregory dropped back far enough to record a 9:00 result.
For Roe and Gregory, there isn't much to say here.
Roe was tactically brilliant and gauged this race perfectly. She has some of the best 3000 meter racing IQ that I've seen in a very, very long time -- maybe the most since I first started writing.
As for Gregory, she is undeniably fit. She ran 4:31 in the mile and split 4:29 on the anchor leg of the DMR a couple of weeks ago. I don't mind her going after a fast, all-out effort and being aggressive. It didn't work out and the pace came back to hurt her, but it was still pretty impressive.
Let's briefly talk about Simone Plourde and Ella Baran.
When it comes to the Utah ace, I continue to be so. darn. impressed. with how she has evolved into a competitor. I was convinced that she was more of a miler, but running 8:58 for 3000 meters potentially changes that narrative.
The speed that we saw from Plourde at the tail-end of this race was wildly impressive. If she's in a tactical setting on the national stage and within striking distance, then I would not at all be surprised if she earned an All-American honor.
In a year where everyone and their mom are running historically fast times, it's important that we recognize Plourde's rise as a nationally competitive talent.
As for Baran, this is roughly what we expected. In fact, I predicted her to run 8:57, so an 8:58 mark is pretty on par with expectations. She's running incredibly well and I sincerely believe that she can be an All-American if her positioning is good enough.
Going into this race, I said that New Mexico's Amelia Mazza-Downie and Utah's Emily Venters would be the top-two contenders battling for the overall win. And truthfully, for anyone who has followed the distance scene this year, you probably would have agreed.
For the most part, both women have been running well as of late. I thought they would both run under 15:40 for 5000 meters on Friday night and that they even had a chance of scaring the 15:30 barrier.
Of course, as has been the case all season long, I severely underestimated the ceiling that both of these women had going into this race.
Throughout most of the race, Emily Venters was the one following the pacer while Amelia Mazza-Downie flanked her right shoulder. That was basically the entire race up until the last lap where the New Mexico star swung past Venters and lit up the last lap with impressive, drawn-out aerobic strength.
In the end, the clock read 15:18 for Mazza-Downie while Venters did a nice job of salvaging of top-tier time, posting a 15:20 mark of her own.
Suddenly, our understanding of the women's All-American 5k picture has shifted quite a bit. Venters showed the most in-race conviction that I have ever seen from her. She was aggressive and unafraid to go after a fast time even with Mazza-Downie on her shoulder. And while all of the spotlight will likely go to the Lobo ace, we have to give credit to Venters for keep her composure over those final laps.
I'll admit, I kept wondering when this long-time veteran would fade, but she never really did. It just so happens that Mazza-Downie had another gear.
As for the overall 5k winner, I'm beyond impressed. Mazza-Downie has never looked this good...ever. She looked like a completely different (and better) runner which is saying a lot considering how accomplished she already was.
A 15:18 mark for 5000 meters puts Mazza-Downie in a different tier. That time now puts her at NCAA #16 all-time in the event. And in a year where the women's 5k looks like it could be a strength-based 5k race, I have never been so confident about where Mazza-Downie could place on the national stage.
Sure, she may not have the most devastating kick over the final 100 meters, but she does seem like someone who can seemingly extend her final move over a long distance if that's what the race calls for.
And come March, I think that could give her a massive advantage.
Despite these two 3k results being (arguably) the fastest distance-based performances that we saw on Friday night, I don't know if there is a ton to talk about or analyze.
Summarizing this race was pretty simple. Florida megastar Parker Valby went to the front of this field almost immediately. She followed the pacer and then continued to lead for a heavy portion of the race.
But throughout that entire effort, Valby was clearly working hard to maintain a honest pace. She looked strong, but she also looked like she was exerting a lot more effort in comparison to some of her competitors. That may be me overanalyzing the race, but it certainly seemed that way, at least from my perspective.
And in the final few laps of the race, Valby began to falter while Hilda Olemomoi, who had quietly moved herself up to the front, began to find even more momentum.
In the end, Olemomoi was the top collegiate in a huge time of 8:45 for 3000 meters. That is a monumental mark that now puts the Alabama youngster at NCAA #3 all-time (for now).
Does that result result change our opinion or perspective of her? Not a ton, but it does show us that Olemomoi is still climbing even higher in her fitness since running 15:17 for 5000 meters on this same track back in December. From a raw fitness standpoint, she may be among the top-five middle or long distance women in the NCAA.
It's also unclear how Olemomoi will fare in a tactical race if the pace doesn't go any faster than 15:40 on the national stage. Does she have the proper foot speed to keep herself in contention during a fast finish?
Regardless, the raw fitness that we've seen from this former JUCO star is almost overwhelming. In a loaded field, she kept her composure despite her relative inexperience and thrived. And even if she doesn't have all of the necessary tools to be a tactical savant, she may be talented enough for that not to matter.
As for Valby, I'm not going to look too closely into this result.
She's a classic front-runner and was probably thinking about the collegiate 3k record of 8:41. It was always going to be a risk to go after that kind of aggressive race plan, but I don't think anyone is looking at this result and thinking, "Oh man, Valby probably isn't favored to be a top-three collegiate in this event at the NCAA Indoor Championships."
If her "fading" to an 8:49 (3k) personal best is an "off" day (which feels like a hysterically ridiculous thing to type out), then I have zero concerns about her for a month from now.
There were so many incredible mile results at Boston University last night and there is only so much time to talk about those women. Below, we broke down every collegiate who ran under 4:35 on Friday. Also, side note, isn't it ridiculous that you have to run under 4:35 in the mile nowadays just to get a mention?
Well that was one heck of an effort from Lindsey Butler! We figured that this Virginia Tech middle distance star was going to run something absurdly fast, but it doesn't make seeing her final result any less impressive.
Here's thing thing: Butler now has a 4:31 mile PR under her belt this season. She has "only" run a converted 2:03 mark for 800 meters so far this winter. In a year where the mile national title seems somewhat wide-open (assuming Tuohy scratches the event) and the half-mile has never been more loaded...what are the chances that Butler goes after the mile at the indoor national meet?
That's an unlikely scenario, especially since Butler will probably solo something along the lines of 2:00 or 2:01 at the ACC Indoor Championships later this month. Still, it's something to think about.
It's a shame that Amaris Tyynismaa can't compete attached this winter because if she could, I would pencil her in as an All-American lock. She did struggle a bit last week at Camel City, but for the most part, her season as a whole (dating back to December) has been fairly solid. I'm very excited to see what she can do on the outdoor oval.
Very few people knew about this South Carolina ace coming into this season. But the Turkish distance star joined the Gamecocks with personal bests of 2:03 (800) and 4:10 (1500) which did catch our attention when we saw her produce a 2:06/4:36 (800/mile) double the other week.
That's why I predicted her to run 4:30 in the mile on Friday and emerge as the top collegiate. And sure, that didn't happen, but a 4:32 mile PR is still fantastic. And after this kind of performance, I have to believe that Silan Ayyildiz has enough of a resume to be a legitimate All-American contender in March.
Another week, another excellent result for Izzy Thornton-Bott.
The Aussie mile star has steadily gotten better and better as this academic year has unraveled. She has always been tactically sound and supremely talented, but we're now beginning to see her full potential. A 4:33 mile PR is super encouraging and it's right on par with the trajectory that she has been on over the last year or so.
The Polish distance star took her time getting adjusted to the Oregon program, but her patience has ultimately paid off. With personal bests of 2:03 (800), 2:39 (1k) and 4:07 (1500) prior to joining the Ducks, expectations were high for Kazimierska.
This past fall was solid for the overseas middle distance talent, but it wasn't amazing, either. The first few races of this winter season were fine, but they also left us wanting so much more.
But with a 4:33 mile PR now under her belt, Kazimierska may be rounding into form at the perfect time. And if she can work alongside Thornton-Bott on the national stage, then the Oregon women could have two All-Americans (assuming both women qualify).
Another BYU runner, another top time. The development that we've seen from these Cougar youngsters is so unbelievably impressive. I have no idea how Coach Diljeet Taylor does it, but Taylor Rohatinsky shouldn't be this good this early in her career. She's only a freshman. She went from 4:42 to 4:44 to 4:33. That doesn't happen!
Remember when the BYU women dominated their competition during the winter of 2021? Well, it may take a couple more years for that kind of success to return to Provo, but...I wouldn't be surprised we saw it happen again.
I am pumped about this result. The Virginia women needed someone to be the face of their distance program after Mia Barnett left the Cavaliers for UCLA. To see Appleton drop fast time after fast time is beyond awesome. She's delivering on the potential that I knew she had, but wasn't entirely if/when she would deliver on that.
A 4:34 mile time is a really nice way for Mia Barnett to begin her career with UCLA. She'll still have to run faster to make it to the national meet, but this is a really nice performance that could set her up for another big time in the coming weeks. Other than that, I can't say that I'm too surprised! This is roughly on par with our expectations for her.
At long last, both Teagan Schein-Becker and Samantha Tran had the breakout races that we knew they could! These two distance talents were both low-4:40 milers coming into this season, but they were both fairly consistent and had shown signs of having a potential breakout race soon.
Schein-Becker had already run 4:36 this season, so her latest result is more validation than it is a breakout performance. Tran is far less established in the mile, previously only holding a 4:41 personal best in the event, but she has run 4:14 for 1500 meters.
Well done to both of these women.
Yes, it's true Riley Chamberlain has already run 4:33 in the mile this season, so this result isn't necessarily a shock. However, it is validation that her recent mile PR from January wasn't a fluke and that she is, in fact, a nationally competitive distance talent as only a freshman.