First Thoughts: Tuohy's Unbelievable 3k, Essayi & Jacobs Nearly Break Records & Austin's 1:46 PR

Here is what I said about Florida's Sam Austin at the tail-end of January...

"I think this could be a big year for Sam Austin. As a true freshman, this guy qualified for the indoor national meet, ran 1:47 multiple times throughout the winter and spring months and also finished 3rd in the 800 meters at last year's SEC Indoor Championships."

As it turns out, my initial hunch was right, I was just a few weeks too early.

The Gator sophomore just had the race of his life, running 1:46.06 over 800 meters to take down (and maybe upset, depending on who you ask) a pair of Iowa State stars in Jason Gomez and Cebastian Gentil. Both of those men also ran in the 1:46 range this past weekend.

Austin is crazy talented and showed signs of being a true star during his rookie year. But now, it looks like the Florida product is delivering on expectations and taking that next step up. It's one thing to run the NCAA #2 time over 800 meters, but to also defeat a top-heavy field of national-caliber talents is extremely impressive.

This second-year runner isn't just relying on raw talent anymore. Sure, he certainly has plenty of that, but now Austin has the necessary control of his fitness to pull off marquee wins.

Could this rising Florida star win the half-mile national title this winter? Maybe, but he also feels like he's a year away from doing that. This is far and away the best result that he's ever had. This is also the first major win Austin has ever had at the collegiate level.

Yes, he's had wins before, but none to this magnitude.

Even so, this is a guy who peaked in the postseason last winter and it looks like he's doing the same in 2023...except now he's just twice as fit.

As for Gomez and Gentil, this was a really solid pair of results! Both of these men almost definitely secured their spots to the indoor national meet (they each ran 1:46). They're also building on their season-long momentum and they may be peaking at the right time.

Gomez is an interesting name to monitor. We saw last spring how dangerous he can be when he catches fire at the right moment. He knows a lot about how the top 800 meter runners in the NCAA like to race and he's had national-caliber success before.

Is this Cyclone veteran a national title favorite in the half-mile this year? Maybe not a favorite, but I would certainly say that he's a contender. On an absolutely perfect day, a gold medal in March could be in his future.

LeRoy Russell III (Arkansas), Darius Kipyego (Iowa State) and Dayton Carlson (Arizona State) all ran 1:47 marks over 800 meters. And while those are strong times, there's a good chance that none of those performances will be fast enough to make it to the indoor national meet.

Even so, Russell is showing greater consistency, Kipyego is closer to the nationally competitive tier than he was last year and Carlson is gaining momentum in the same way that he did last spring when he earned All-American honors.

One of these men is going to run 1:46 in the next couple of weeks...I just don't know who.

For months, we've been saying that Navasky Anderson was the 800 meter national title this winter. However, his ongoing absences and extended delay from running the half-mile event made it challenging to gauge where in the conversation for NCAA gold he should be placed.

But after running a 4:05 mile PR earlier in the season, Anderson finally toed the line for the 800 meters at the Music City Challenge this past weekend. And when he did, he lit up the track, throwing down a monster time of 1:46.58 for a relatively comfortable win.

For his first 800 meter race of the season, that was quite the performance...but it was also hardly surprising. After all, this is a guy who ran 1:45.02 last spring and was a legitimate contender to win the NCAA title in the half-mile event.

Yes, it's true, Anderson didn't have an indoor track resume which suggested that he would be a top-tier name. But after his breakout 2022 spring season, it seemed like he would be a clear favorite for the national title this winter, especially with Moad Zahafi and Brandon Miller out of the NCAA.

We will likely get a better idea of just how strong Anderson is at the SEC Indoor Championships as he faces a loaded field of conference foes. There's also a good chance that we see someone run under 1:46 on that stage -- and of the candidates to do so, the best option is probably Anderson.

Speaking of SEC talents, how about Georgie rookie, Will Sumner? The former high school middle distance star dropped a huge 1:47.28 mark over 800 meters in the same race. He now sits just on the fringes of national qualifying. I imagine that he'll toe the line for this race at the SEC Indoor Championships to give himself a final push into the national meet.

In a lot of ways, he would be positioning himself for a trajectory similar to what we've seen from Sam Austin over the last year and a half.

There is a lot to like about Princeton sophomore Samuel Rodman who is following a trend of performances that are almost identical to Sam Austin. He showed tons of promise as a nationally competitive name during his freshman year, but has clearly taken a step up in 2023.

He just ran 1:46 for 800 meters at Boston University, holding the lead from the gun. He simply followed his pacer, never relinquished the lead and forced the field to follow him. From an entertainment standpoint, it was a pretty boring race. But in terms of positioning and strength, it was one of the better executed half-mile efforts I've seen this winter.

I'm not saying that I see Rodman winning an 800 meter national title this season, but he's quietly really solid and his tactics are coming together nicely. If he was a top-five finisher on the national stage, I wouldn't be surprised in the slightest.

I won't spend much time on Nathan Green, but his 1:46.99 mark over 800 meters was excellent validation of his 3:52 mile PR from earlier this season. He was the top attached collegiate, just behind teammate Sam Ellis.

Green continues to do all of the little things right. That speed is huge as we near the postseason, especially for the tactical races that we could see from him.

Isn't it wild how I can predict someone to run 3:52 in the mile and that still turns out to be an overly conservative guess? That's just the NCAA nowadays...

It was almost a forgone conclusion that this South Carolina star was going to run something absurdly fast this weekend. He had run 7:41 (3k) earlier in January and already owned a 3:34 (1500) PR from the summer of 2021 prior to joining the Gamecocks. His first season was super impressive, but not a good example of his true potential.

That, of course, is changing this winter.

On Saturday, Essayi slowly and meticulously moved up through a blistering-fast mile field. And by the final two laps, he found himself just behind Amos Bartelsmeyer. The two distance stars charged down the final straightaway with the Nike pro barely getting the edge over the South Carolina ace.

And although he didn't win, it was Essayi's time that was more important.

The Gamecock runner posted an unbelievable mark of 3:50.46.

That result was just 0.07 seconds from Cooper Teare's 2021 record.

What this Moroccan distance star has done this winter is unreal. His raw talent has paired beautifully with his understanding of tactics and positioning. He looks unstoppable. Essayi isn't just running historically elite marks, he's putting himself in positions to win.

And neither of the fields that he has battled this year have been easy!

Right now, it looks like Essayi is probably in the same tier as Joe Waskom. These are the two men with the best combination of fitness and tactics (for the mile) that the NCAA has right now. They are probably the two clear-cut national title favorites. If you flipped a coin, that would probably be the best way to decide who to choose as your pick to win it all.

Alright, let's go through the same process that we did yesterday with the women's milers from Boston University. Here are all of the sub-3:56 milers who we saw from Saturday's races...

One of the nation's best 1500 meter runners from last spring opened his season with an impressive 7:48 (3k) mark for 3000 meters. That was an encouraging development for someone who has always been viewed as more of a speed-based talent, although his impressive cross country season suggested that he could run something along those lines.

Securing a 3:54 mile mark is huge. With his tactics and understanding of positioning, one could argue that it may be easier for Vanoppen to get out of the prelims at the NCAA Indoor Championships than it was to get a national qualifying mark.

And now, I feel pretty confident in saying that Vanoppen will be an All-American lock.

Each and every season, Isaac Basten continues to do just enough to remain as a nationally competitive name. A 3:54 mile PR is another encouraging step in the right direction for this Drake miler who is a tactical genius.

Basten sat in last for a portion of Saturday's mile race, but then moved up. He continues to be one of the best finishers in the NCAA. And much like Thomas Vanoppen, it feels like trying to get into the national meet would have been more of a challenge than actually getting out of the prelims for this Drake ace.

If the indoor national meet turns tactical, potentially being won in a time over 4:00, then maybe, just maybe, Basten could contend for NCAA gold...

I was convinced that this guy was going to go all-in for the 800 meters after running 1:47 earlier this season and winning his race at Penn State. But a 3:55 mile PR changes our understanding of Murphy's abilities.

The Virginia ace has become increasingly more dynamic with this performance. He was already a strong talent, but this takes him to another level. He's another guy who could thrive in a sit-and-kick affair thanks to having some of the better half-mile turnover in the country.

Yes, Ryan Wilson is a D3 athlete and not a D1 athlete, but a 3:55 mile PR (and a new D3 record) is so unbelievably impressive. This is someone who has built his reputation in the 800 meters, an event where he was viewed as the indoor national title favorite this winter.

But Wilson is now so far ahead of the next-best D3 miler who could actually contest the event on the national stage that it would almost be shocking if he ran in the 800 meters during the month of March.

Wilson was already one of the better middle distance runners of this era, but now he has rapidly evolved into an all-time great.

After he ran 2:20 for 1000 meters earlier this season, I am fairly confident that I said on the Blue Oval Podcast that Oregon's Elliott Cook would run 1:46 (800) and 3:55 (mile) this winter. And as of right now, that looks like the best prediction I've made all season long.

We now have to wonder which event Cook will contest at the indoor national meet. If the Ducks get a DMR to the national stage, then Cook will almost certainly run the mile so that he has enough time to double back for the relay.

But if Oregon doesn't get a national qualifying DMR to New Mexico, then I feel like it's a toss-up as to which event he contests. Because in my eyes, I feel like he has a fairly balanced chance of earning All-American honors in both events.

I just don't know what to say anymore.

I really don't.

I thought 8:38 or 8:39 over 3000 meters would have been a really, really, really good day for Katelyn Tuohy this past weekend. It would have been the NCAA record by a somewhat comfortable margin and it would have extended her campaign to become the NCAA distance running G.O.A.T.

But 8:35?

Can anyone truly comprehend the magnitude of that time?

I can't comprehend a scenario where someone even comes close to that record in the next 50 years. And sure, maybe spikes will get even faster, tracks will become bouncier and our understanding biomechanics will reach master-like levels.

Maybe in that scenario, Tuohy's record has a chance of falling.

That, however, seems unlikely, at least in the moment.

I try to keep everything in context. I respect history and I respect longevity. I am very cautious about declaring someone as the next G.O.A.T. of basically anything or even say that someone is a legitimate national title favorite (not to be used with "title contender" which is a popular phrase at TSR).

But what Tuohy has done since last spring is legendary. It doesn't feel real. If you take her last year of competition and match it up against any of the all-time greats, I think this NC State phenom has a real chance for us to say, "Yeah, she's better."

Does this distance runner have the same longevity or number of titles as some of the other collegiate megastars? No, maybe not, but...that's not her fault.

In terms of the impressiveness of her results, I don't know if any woman in collegiate history can flex the same level of dominance that Tuohy showed at the 2022 NCAA XC Championships and in her two record-breaking performances at the Armory this winter. I'm not even mentioning her 5k outdoor national title from last spring!

I'm not ready to say that Tuohy definitely is the G.O.A.T. yet, mainly because of how young she is relative to former collegiate legends who stayed in the NCAA until they were seniors. It's probably not even fair to have this conversation until someone officially leaves the NCAA. But if you're willing to look past that part then...gosh, I think there might be an argument for her right now.

I'd like to say more about Alabama's Mercy Chelangat who had a very nice race of her own, but an 8:54 (3k) mark is super unsurprising. Everyone knew she was capable of that kind of time and she already owns an 8:53 PR from last winter.

Coming into the men's 3000 meters, I said the following...

"...is it crazy for me to suggest that the men's collegiate 3k record is also in jeopardy?"

And when I said that, I was implying that Northern Arizona's Nico Young would be the one going after the NCAA record, recently set by his current teammate, Drew Bosley.

But instead, it was Dylan Jacobs who nearly put himself at the top of the all-time leaderboard, running 7:36.89 for 3000 meters, just 0.47 seconds off of Bosley's mark. And while I certainly thought that Jacobs could have scared the 7:40 barrier, I just didn't think that he would be able to run anywhere close to sub-7:37.

That, of course, was a mistake.

This era of collegiate distance running, dating back to the winter of 2020, is what ultimately changed our understanding of how fast the NCAA could truly be. And when we reflect on the most influential distance stars of this time, Jacobs' resume is now becoming impossible to not mention.

With personal bests of 13:11 (5k) and 7:36 (3k) over the last few weeks, both of which rank among the top-three all-time in NCAA history, Jacobs' insanely fast times have more than made up for the fact that he "only" has one national title.

Sure, he didn't get the NCAA record, but in terms of his legacy, Jacobs won't ever be viewed the same again -- and that's a good thing.

As for Maier, he ran 7:43 (3k) and that was probably the least surprising result of the weekend. I predicted that he would run 7:42, so I can only shrug my shoulders and say, "Yeah, that seems about right."

And then there's Nico Young.

The NAU superstar just had a bad day. It's as simple as that. I don't think Coach Mike Smith would have entered him in this race if he didn't think he was fit enough. We also can't forget that Young ran 15:15 for 5000 meters back in December.

In our eyes, he's probably still a top-10 distance talent in the country...but I may need to retract that statement when we release our official top-25 rankings tomorrow.