Admin (Garrett Zatlin)
Sep 30, 202218 min
The Joe Piane Invitational just wrapped up and there is no time to waste as far as our analysis is concerned. Let's avoid a fluffy intro and jump right into it.
Tuohy is so good.
So, so, so good.
While many of our writers chose Chelangat to win this race, that was mainly because the Alabama star seemed like the safer pick going into this meet. She has a national title in cross country and a national title in the 10k.
On paper, she was (and maybe still is) more proven on the grass compared to Tuohy.
But after a monster year on the track, it was clear that NC State's superstar talent was capable of taking down the Crimson Tide ace...we just didn't expect it to be by 12 seconds.
Unless Natalie Cook becomes a sport-altering megastar over the next two months, I don't see how Tuohy is going to lose the national title. She is not only the most talented runner in the NCAA, but she is arguably the most complete runner as well...and I don't think there is going to be much argument there.
The rest of the Wolfpack women ran about as well as we thought they would.
Sam Bush (5th) and Sydney Seymour (6th) provided the expected firepower that made this NC State lineup impossible to take down. It was very promising to see Seymour secure a top finish in this field. We figured she would be great, but there's never a guarantee that track performances will translate to the grass.
Marlee Starliper (12th) was excellent, producing a result that likely would've been considered a low-stick result for most other teams. However, we did see a bit of a drop-off after her.
Gionna Quarzo's 31st place finish would be considered a great result for a few other teams, but that drop-off does need to be monitored on bigger stages. While NC State did get a fairly comfortable win, they were "only" 13 points ahead of New Mexico.
That's not necessarily the dominant victory that we thought we would see out of the Wolfpack.
However, it's important to note that Kelsey Chmiel and Savannah Shaw didn't race.
That's both good news and bad news for the NC State women.
If either of those women had run this past weekend, then NC State goes from earning a "fairly comfortable" win to earning an outright dominant victory.
But with neither woman running on Friday then...when should we expect them to race? Almost every other Wolfpack varsity contender toed the line for NC State during Friday's race. And while I certainly don't want to speculate, I do have to wonder what the status of those two women will be for the rest of this fall.
Either way, NC State is the national title favorite with or without Chmiel and Shaw. That's something that most title favorites in the past likely wouldn't be able to say about their respective teams.
Really nice run for the New Mexico women! I can't say that I'm necessarily surprised by their result, but seeing them have the most complete lineup in this field was super encouraging
Larkin (9th) and Heckel (16th) produced unsurprising results. The women who we were actually monitoring were Amelia Mazza-Downie (10th), Samree Dishon (13th) and Elise Thorner (20th). Suddenly, our preseason individual rankings look really good.
Heck, even Danielle Verster, a new name who I admittedly had never heard of before, locked-down a 21st place finish while Abbe Goldstein was 29th!
New Mexico's depth isn't just as good as we thought it would be -- it's better.
This group has essentially zero weaknesses and that's a crazy thing to think about. The only thing holding them back from NC State is simply their firepower. If they can figure out a way to match the numerous low-sticks that the Wolfpack women have, then the Lobos could realistically have a shot at the national title.
Admittedly, a lot of things need to go their way in order for that happen, but their depth is flat-out incredible...and yet, they only barely beat Alabama by two points.
The Alabama women were only two points away from taking down the New Mexico women.
But the best part?
I don't think they ran at their best.
Chelangat (2nd) didn't surprise anyone with her result, but seeing JUCO transfer Hilda Olemomoi earn a monster 3rd place finish was huge! All she needed to be for this team was a solid fourth scoring option -- but she looks like one of the most lethal low-sticks in the country right now.
And if you think that this race was just a fluke for her, I would advise you to look at the North Alabama Showcase results, a meet where Olemomoi took down a top-ranked name in Tori Herman.
If she keep this up, then Alabama has to be a podium favorite...right?
Amaris Tyynissmaa finishing 15th overall was admittedly on the lower end of where we expected her to finish, but we're not exactly worried about that result. She peaked beautifully for the postseason last spring and is still coming off of a year where she was battling injuries.
Tyynissmaa should only get better as the season goes on.
It's a similar story for Flomena Asekol, another top-ranked Alabama talent. She finished 18th overall in a race where many of us thought she could place in the top-10. Much like Tyynissmaa, that is not at all a poor result, but we think there is greater potential for Asekol over the next two months of competition.
Of course, the biggest question of the day was, where would Alabama's final scorer finish? And would that final scorer be able to close out the team scoring fast enough to give the Crimson Tide a top finish?
Well, that final scorer turned out to be Elka Machan who earned a monumental 32nd place finish, just one spot behind NC State's fifth scorer, Gionna Quarzo!
That is MASSIVE for Alabama. This is a team that has been plagued by limited depth for years. But if Machan is going to keep running like that and finish only 18 seconds back from Alabama's fourth scorer, then the potential for this team in the postseason is sky high.
The Crimson Tide women should be thrilled with this result. Not only did they find a legitimate fifth scorer, but they didn't even run 9:55 steeplechaser, Jasmijn Bakker. And with Tyynissmaa and Asekol both leaving room for improvement, I can't help but ask...could the Alabama women eventually threaten NC State if Chmiel and Shaw don't run this fall?
That's admittedly a bold suggestion, and we still need to see a lot more from this group before I firmly get behind that notion but...gosh, this Alabama team looks dangerous.
Strictly in terms of placement, seeing the Notre Dame women finish 4th in this field is hardly a surprise. However, when you take a look at these point totals, it's hard to get excited about how the Irish performed on Friday.
With a total of 144 points, the Notre Dame women (TSR #7) had more than double the score of Alabama (TSR #6). That's extremely rare for teams that finished right next to each other and for teams that are also ranked right next to each other.
Olivia Markezich (8th) was fantastic as expected. Meanwhile, Annasophia Keller (24th) and Katie Thronson (25th) held their own with really solid middle-lineup scoring value. While we thought that one of those women could have been in the top-20, they still ran fairly well.
But with Maddy Denner (35th) continuing to struggle with consistency and Erin Strzelecki (54th) finishing a bit further back than expected, it was hard for the Fighting Irish to rally against the top teams in this field.
There is, however, good news.
This result is significantly better than what the Irish women posted at this meet last year. This is also a team that peaked better than any other program in the NCAA last fall. We also didn't see Charlotte Bednar, Kate Wiser or Caroline Lehman on Friday.
Compared to last year, there is actually a lot to be encouraged about when looking at Notre Dame. However, being closer to Florida State than to Alabama isn't necessarily the greatest result, either.
All in all, this was a solid result for Florida State!
And yet, at the same time, this also felt fairly predictable.
The Seminoles weren't going to take down any juggernauts on Friday, but they were at least going to hold their own against some respectable programs. And sure enough, that's what happened.
Emmy van den Berg (17th) was a solid front-runner for the Seminoles, a better-than-expected result for the Dutch distance talent. Seeing her run alongside Alysoin Churchill (22nd), who had one of the better races of her career, was really encouraging to see.
However, from there, we saw a fairly noticeable drop-off that was at least closed out reasonably quick. Agnes McTighe (36th) held her own with a respectable middle-lineup result which bridged the gap to Yasmine Abbes (51st) and Caitlin Wilkey (53rd).
Honestly, I don't have much more to say for Florida State. This is roughly what we expected from the FSU women and I don't think anyone is surprised by this result.
Really nice run for the Liberty women, a team that was listed in the "Just Missed" portion of our preseason rankings. We knew that they had the potential to be nationally competitive, but the fact that they finished 6th in this race without Adelyn Fairley (TSR #46) is huge.
All-American Calli Doan (7th) continues to prove that she is one of the most underrated women in the country with a fantastic low-stick finish. Her scoring spark was complemented by teammates Ava Gordon (23rd) and Kayla Werner (28th) who were so much better than we expected them to be.
Admittedly, Liberty's final two scorers were a bit further back in 59th and 74th place, but this was still a really great result for the Flames. We knew Doan was awesome, Fairley is another underrated ace (who again, didn't race) and there were a handful of underrated names on this roster who we didn't know about until now.
However, maybe more importantly, seeing Gordon and Werner emerge as top-tier middle-lineup scorers was huge. And when you add Fairley into the mix, then you're looking at a scenario where Liberty cuts off (at least) 40 to 50 points...and likely beats Notre Dame!
Kudos to Liberty. This result will likely slip under the radar for others, but we can see that there is very clearly tons of upside still remaining on this roster.
Not necessarily the best result ever for Toledo, but it wasn't terrible, either.
The Toledo women, who we listed at TSR #25 in our preseason rankings, had low-stick Joy Chirchir produce an unsurprising 11th place finish. That was a great result, but one that we were admittedly expecting.
However, the rest of the Rockets' lineup was a bit further back.
Faith Linga, Lou Trois, Julia Dames and Madeline Vining went 43-44-58-60 in the overall results to close out this lineup. Those were fine results, but it's very clear that Linga could have been 20 spots better than she was.
And yet, even if Linga had run to her full potential, it may not have been enough to take down a Liberty team that was missing a top low-stick.
Overall, Toledo's backend pack just needs to improve as a whole. They don't need everyone to be in the top-30, but if everyone can move up 10 spots in a field like this, then the Rockets are closer to the expectations that we had for them this past summer.
The Oregon State women were a popular pick to be a breakout team on Friday. And while that didn't necessarily happen at this meet, there was still a lot of positives to takeaway from the Beavers' performances.
Kaylee Mitchell (TSR #34) just established herself as one of the most dangerous scorers in the country. The steeplechase superstar threw down a huge 4th place finish to give her team a massive scoring edge.
And with Grace Fetherstonhaugh, another Oregon State star on the track, producing a huge 14th place finish, the Beavers looked like they had one of the more potent scoring duos in the field.
However, with their final three scorer going 49-93-103 in the overall results, there just wasn't enough depth for Oregon State to take advantage of their upfront firepower.
We should note that the Beavers were without a potential top-seven runner as well as their top freshman for this race. Both women were rumored to be out this week with illness.
We also saw Boise State transfer, Olivia Johnson, struggle a bit. But Friday is not at all what she is capable of. She'll likely be a scorer for this team in the future, although where in that mix she'll be isn't entirely clear yet.
The Boise State women weren't the flashiest team during Friday's race, but I really liked the pack-running they showed.
Sure, they didn't have a true low-stick (or any firepower for that matter), but they did establish a compact group that had a really nice time-spread in a field like this.
The combination of Yasmin Marghini, Autumn Ost, Delaney Griffin, Ashley LaJocies and Abby Kendrick went 46-48-50-57-63, respectively, in the overall results. With a mere 14 second time-spread headlining this group, I feel like the Broncos could have some decent scoring value in an even larger field like Nuttycombe.
The Notre Dame men should be really happy with how their race on Friday went. Even without star low-stick Josh Methner, they still took down numerous top-ranked teams in somewhat comfortable fashion...although they did it with a unique lineup structure.
Despite taking the overall win, the Notre Dame men didn't have anyone in the top-nine of the individual standings. Only Kevin Berry, a graduate transfer from Princeton, cracked the top-10 with a great 10th place finish, extending his breakout season from this past spring.
Luckily, his teammates were close behind him, and that ultimately made all the difference for the Fighting Irish in this race.
Carter Solomon, a guy who we believe was going to have an increasingly important role on this squad in 2022, had the best race of his life, placing 13th overall while true freshman teammate Izaiah Steury lived up to his high school hype by placing 14th.
The emergence of those two men is massive for Notre Dame, mainly because the Irish were coming into this season banking on a lot of things going right.
Renfree hasn't come close to replicating his winter cross country All-American honor, Methner (who didn't race) has been a little inconsistent on the grass and Carmody has not yet fully translated his track success to the grass (although this was his first chance of doing so).
But make no mistake, when those three men are at their absolute best, this team is VERY scary. We just wanted to see more out of Solomon, Steury and Berry in order to feel better about this 2022 lineup (and after Friday, we certainly do).
Carmody's 18th place finish was fine, but we thought he was capable of being a top-10 finisher. That, however, largely didn't matter as he gave Notre Dame another guy in the top-20.
With Carter Cheeseman having what may have been the best race of his career, finishing 26th overall, the Fighting Irish men didn't just look good, they looked great.
If this team was able to put together this kind of depth without Methner, and if Carmody has 10 fewer points in him, then the Irish may be one of the last teams that I would want to face in 2022.
They may not have won the race, but the Tennessee men do feel like the biggest winners of this meet.
Coach Sean Carlson and Dylan Jacobs returned to their old stomping grounds with a revamped Tennessee lineup that was making plenty of buzz this past summer. And while there were certainly questions about depth and their backend consistency, the Vols were able to silence their critics on Friday.
Tennessee's 1-2 punch was as good as advertised, although it was Yaseen Abdalla leading the way in 4th place (arguably the best regular season race of his career) while Jacobs settled for 8th place despite being an individual favorite.
And while Jacobs could have been better, that was still an outstanding scoring duo that gave the Vols two men ahead of Notre Dame's entire top-five.
Eli Nahom, however, was the true star of the show. After showing subtle promise on the track, Nahom locked down a huge 19th place finish, a high-value spot that bridged the gap between Tennessee's top-two and bottom-two scorers.
With Grand Canyon graduate transfer and middle distance standout Jacob Lewis (33rd) taking advantage of the flat, fast course and veteran Karl Thiessen settling for 40th, the Vols were able to close out their scoring quick enough to get runner-up honors.
Overall, Tennessee should be really happy with this result. Jacobs and Thiessen can still improve (to varying extents), Nahom was much better than expected and Lewis was a little better than expected.
Oh, and they didn't have 13:39 (5k) runner Nate Kawalec in this race, either.
Nahom is the guy who ultimately makes this team so dangerous. Without him, we're looking at a very different story for the Tennessee men. Certain guys will need to be better in the future, but I still see much more upside than downside for the Vols over the next two months.
....surprise?
This was pretty much what I thought we would see from the Alabama men. Kiprop (1st), Kipsang (3rd) and Cheruiyot (6th) were beyond phenomenal. That, of course, is the standard that the Alabama men need to set if they are going to continue having success this fall.
Keep an eye on Kiprop. On paper, we ranked him accurately in our preseason rankings, but it just felt like there was so much lethal potential in him. I don't want to say that he's a contender for the individual national title yet, but...I might be willing to say that later in the season.
But let's move to the most important part(s) of this lineup: Alabama's final two scorers.
Jacob Wiggers (54th) and Jacob Harris (62nd) weren't necessarily amazing, but they didn't need to be. They closed out the second-half of Alabama's lineup at a reasonable point and proved to be the most effective depth that the Crimson Tide have had in a while.
Overall, this result seems to be right on par with our expectations for Alabama. However, we'll be curious to see what Carson Burian can do if he eventually races this fall.
The 8:57 steeplechaser could be a major x-factor for this team in 2022.
Congratulations, Montana State.
You truly are one of the better cross country teams in the NCAA.
There was obviously a ton of question marks about how the insanely elite times that we saw from the Montana State men on the track would translate to the grass. While we were excited about their potential firepower, we also wanted to be reflect caution in their preseason ranking.
At the time, a TSR #24 ranking seemed appropriate.
And for the most part, I think we were fairly accurate...although they might move up after Friday.
The Bobcats didn't have anyone in the top-19, but their collective top-five was flat-out incredible, each holding really strong scoring value. Ben Perrin, Duncan Hamilton, Matthew Richtman, Cooper West and Levi Taylor went 20-23-29-35-37, respectively.
With an 18-second time-spread, the Montana State men didn't seem to have any true weaknesses.
This certainly isn't how I thought the Montana State men would succeed this fall. I thought they would have two or three ultra-talented low-sticks and then a large scoring drop-off. However, with the rise of Cooper West and this entire top-five finishing within 17 spots of each other, this lineup seems a lot less variable than I was expecting.
That said, I still think there is greater firepower and scoring potency within this team. I think Perrin and Hamilton could have been top-12 guys in this field.
Even so, this was a really nice start. Cooper West should be celebrated in Bozeman, Montana. His recent rise gives the Bobcats a complete top-five and it allows the low-sticks on this team to fully capitalize on their scoring instead of making up for lineup gaps.
Kudos to Montana State.
My next task for them?
Do it again.
The Charlotte men should be thrilled. Securing a tie-breaking 5th place finish in this field is monumental, especially since they don't have low-stick Paul Arredondo anymore.
Nickolas Scudder (TSR #48) validated his preseason ranking with a monster 2nd place finish in a loaded field. His low-stick presence for this team continues to be invaluable.
Naturally, we saw a drop-off after Scudder, although it was hardly a damaging drop-off.
Hunter White (30th) and Aaron Rovnak (34th) were pleasant surprises while teammate Gavin Prior did a solid job of his own in 50th place. And with Maddon Muhammad placing 64th overall, the 49ers were able to steal a 5th place finish from the Butler Bulldogs on a tie-breaker.
I'll be honest, this lineup structure was...kind of unexciting.
But Charlotte probably doesn't care whether or not I think they were exciting or not. What matters is that the 49ers put together an effective lineup that simply got the job done. And sometimes, that's all that you can ask for.
White and Rovnak do need to get credit for the progress that they showed on Friday, especially Rovnak who didn't show us anything before this race that he was capable of a top-35 finish in a field like this.
For Charlotte, this result is game-changing.
They just beat Butler, Cal Poly, Michigan, NC State, Boise State and Florida State.
How many Kolas points is that? Maybe two if we're being conservative?
I don't think there's any guarantee that the teams behind Charlotte make it to the national meet, but I would be surprised if two of them didn't.
Settling for a 6th place finish off of a tie-breaker with Charlotte has to sting a little bit, but at least this was a better result than what we saw a few weekends ago in a rust-buster against Syracuse.
Barry Keane (TSR #27) returned to his role as a true low-stick by placing 9th overall. He was complemented by Jesse Hamlin who continues to show the country that he's more than a 1500 meter runner, placing 16th on Friday.
That was a very good 1-2 punch for Butler and it was one of the better scoring duos outside of the top-three teams. And with Matthew Forrester snagging a clutch 24th place finish, the Bulldogs were looking sneaky-good through three runners.
Unfortunately for them, things fell apart a bit as their final two scorers faded to 55th place and 76th place. Those weren't terrible results, but those gaps certainly left the door open for Charlotte.
After having some legitimate questions about the scoring integrity of this lineup, I'm actually pretty encouraged by what we saw from the Butler men in South Bend, Indiana.
Yes, they need to improve the backend of their lineup, but Hamlin looks like a legitimate complementary scorer to Keane and Forrester was a pleasant surprise.
Adjustments need to be made, but there's still a decent window for Butler to advance to the national meet come November.
Hold up.
The Cal Poly men weren't supposed to be this good this soon.
Coach Ryan Vanhoy has done it again. Despite joining the Mustangs back in June, he has somehow already elevated this team to a point where they are taking down traditional Power Five stalwarts.
I imagine every team in the NCAA is saying something like this right now...
The combination of Xian Shively, Jake Ritter and Aidan McCarthy stayed together to go 25-27-28, respectively, in the overall results. That is an outstanding scoring trio that crossed the line before Charlotte's third scorer and Montana State's third scorer.
And while William Fallini-Haas (51st) and Anthony Guerra (61st) were admittedly a bit further back, those final two scorers were actually better than what Butler, Charlotte and Alabama put together at the backend of their lineups.
If the Shively-Ritter-McCarthy trio can continue to limit gaps through three runners and potentially move up in these kinds of fields, then the Mustangs could be a really dangerous team come the postseason.
We're still learning about this team, but what we do know is that Ryan Vanhoy is more of a magician than a coach. He makes great teams appear out of thin air.
In our Joe Piane meet preview, the Michigan men were picked by two writers as the team with the highest floor, meaning that they were the least likely to have a poor day.
And, uh, that didn't exactly turn out to be the case.
Nick Foster's 15th place finish was super encouraging, especially since this is a team that likely needs more scoring value next to Indiana graduate transfer, Arjun Jha. And while Jha didn't have his best race on Friday, he still settled for a really solid 22nd place finish.
While they were far from perfect, the Wolverines actually looked pretty solid through two runners...and then things fell apart. With the final Michigan scorers placing 47-56-77 in the overall results, the backend support that we saw from other teams was flat-out better.
There is, however, good news if you're from Ann Arbor.
Tom Brady, a guy who has run 7:55 (3k), 13:49 (5k) and 28:46 (10k), didn't race on Friday. If he had, and maybe finished in 20th place, then you're looking at the Michigan men cutting off 54 points after displacement.
If that happens, then they score 163 points and comfortably place 5th overall.
In other words, there is no need to panic if you're Michigan.
If anything, they're roughly on track with our expectations.
Welp, that just wasn't a great race for the NC State men.
After a not-so-great 2021 fall cross country season, we thought this revamped NC State lineup would be much better in 2022. So much so that we listed them at TSR #22 in our preseason rankings.
And through two runners, things looked good for the Wolfpack!
Ian Shanklin (7th) returned to his true low-stick form with an excellent result while steeplechaser standout Brett Gardner (21st) extended his success from the spring.
However, almost exactly like Michigan, things began to crumble from there.
David Vorbach did an alright job by placing 43rd, but with the final two scorers on this team placing 57th and 90th, there was just too much of a drop-off for the Wolfpack men to recover from.
But here's the thing: Neither Hannes Burger nor Robinson Snider ran on Friday. All NC State needs is a fifth runner to close gap on their two middle-lineup scorers. If that happens, then much like Michigan, the Wolfpack men are contending for a 5th place finish in this field.
Do certain parts of this NC State lineup need to be better? Absolutely, but I do feel like the introduction of Burger and/or Snider to this group actually makes the Wolfpack's varsity squad much better than some people realize.
The Boise State men may have placed 10th in this field, but I really liked the core low-sticks they have on this team.
Jonathan Shields (12th) continues to be one of the more underappreciated distance talents in the NCAA and Ahmed Ibrahim (17th) had one of the better cross country races of his career.
There was a pretty significant drop-off after those two, but this is a varsity lineup that can potentially be better in another national-caliber field. I'm not saying that we'll rank Boise State after this week, but keep an eye on them.
No other way to say it, the Florida State men just didn't have their best day.
Fearghal Curtin (5th) was fantastic as expected, but it's clear that the 'Noles are sorely missing another low-stick after both Wildschutt and Muhumed (both of whom are now gone) carried this team throughout last fall.
That said, seeing FSU's middle lineup scorers go 49-59-65 isn't awful. We also didn't see star rookie Michael Toppi toe the line.
Florida State still has a lot of work to do this season if they want to advance to the national meet. However, there is still a little bit of room for them to improve going forward.