First Thoughts: Back On Track

Wow. What a weekend. I can't help but feel giddy about all of the awesome and crazy results that we saw this past Friday and Saturday. It feels like forever ago since we've had this many big-time performances to review.

I won't waste your time with any additional introductory statements, so let's jump right into it. Here are the major takeaways from this past weekend...

We'll likely have some new D2 content coming later this week, but Noble's performance in the mile this past weekend was so unbelievably impressive that we needed to talk about it in this recap.

The NCAA's top mile time so far this year doesn't belong to anyone racing at the D1 level. Instead, it belongs to the top ranked distance runner in our D2 Top 25 rankings: Christian Noble.

The Lee veteran, who was assisted by a rabbit, ran a blistering 4:00.60 mile this past weekend at the UAB Vulcan Classic, a mark which now ranks him at NCAA #4 All-Time (for indoor track) in Division Two. That's the fastest mile time run by a D2 athlete on a 200 meter indoor track since 2014 when Adams State's Kevin Batt ran 3:59.70.

At this point, we now have to consider what this performance means for Noble's future. As of right now, he would be the clear national title favorite in the mile, but would his newfound middle distance speed actually be better in a longer, more tactical race?

We obviously need to see what the rest of his season is going to look like, but depending on which events he decides to pursue, Noble could realistically position himself as the top seed in D2 when it comes to the mile, 3k and 5k.

After coming so close to breaking the four-minute barrier this past weekend, don't be surprised if Noble toes the line for another mile race later this winter. He may try to get into a faster field which would give him a better chance at breaking the four-minute barrier.

If Noble was able to run 4:00.60 with essentially no one challenging him, then imagine what he could do when he's actually pushed...

I feel a little dumb.

We ranked Mu at TSR #17 in our preseason Indoor Top 25 rankings despite all of the telltale signs suggesting that she was going to be better than that. She had some of the fastest indoor and outdoor 800 meter times in the entire NCAA before she even put on a collegiate uniform and already boasted a ton of championship experience against some of the best talents in the country during her high school days.

We were cautious about not giving her a ranking that was overly generous, but after the performance that we saw from her this past weekend, we have may been too cautious...

In her collegiate debut, Mu dropped an incredible mark of 2:01.07 for 800 meters at the Ted Nelson Invitational, earning the women's NCAA #5 All-Time spot for the event. That was an indoor personal best by a little under three seconds (2.91 seconds to be exact) and an overall personal best by just 0.10 seconds.

At this point, I'm not sure if we can view anyone but Mu as the clear national title favorite in the women's 800 meters this year. Yes, it's only one race, and we would like to see her replicate something close to that performance later in the season, but it's hard to see anyone taking down the Aggie youngster in the future.

With Carley Thomas out for the season and the rest of the women's 800 field looking thin when it comes to the overall depth in the NCAA, Mu looks like the undeniable favorite for NCAA gold come March.

One more question before we move on...

If Mu continues to produce jaw-dropping times and elite-level performances over the next few seasons, what are the chances that she'll forgo her collegiate eligibility and eventually turn pro? Given the route that former Texas A&M runner Sammy Watson took, that doesn't seem like an unrealistic scenario.

There were admittedly minor concerns about Mantz after he was apparently sidelined for a month back in late November and early December with an injury. That supposed injury, however, didn't seem to have an impact on the BYU ace this past weekend.

On BYU's indoor track, which sits at 4600 feet of elevation, Mantz threw down an unconverted time of 7:58 for 3000 meters. After an altitude conversion, that mark became an NCAA #1 time of 7:47 which is currently over 10 seconds faster than the next-fastest 3k time.

While it is a bit difficult to gauge altitude converted marks Mantz's performance shouldn't be ignored. He has now thrown himself into the national title conversation with the likes of Grijalva and Teare and has shown that he is healthy enough to be at the top of the NCAA.

However, despite the great performance, we still have questions about how he'll fair in the often tactical indoor national meet which typically requires fast finishes and lethal kicks to take home the overall win.

Mantz has historically been an aggressive front-runner who establishes fast paces from the gun, an approach that has largely benefitted him throughout his career. Still, if a national championship race turns into a sit-and-kick affair, can he still be in the mix for the win? That question obviously assumes that Mantz wouldn't just take pacing duties into his own hands.

None of this is to say that Mantz doesn't have a great kick or that he can't win the 3k national title (because he certainly can). We're just not ready to completely alter our indoor rankings after his performance...at least not yet.

In our weekend preview, I highlighted the Arkansas women loading up the mile and predicted that three Razorbacks would break the 4:40 barrier. Sure enough, that is exactly what happened, although I only guessed two of those three women correctly.

Krissy Gear picked up where she left off last winter by taking home this past weekend in a time of 4:38. She beat out fellow teammates Logan Morris (4:39) and Lauren Gregory (4:39) as well as Katie Izzo (4:40) and Gracie Hyde (4:43).

Gear and Gregory were two easy picks to dip under the 4:40 barrier, although I had chosen Izzo to break the barrier and not Morris. Either way, this was a great season opener for the Arkansas women who will likely need to make some tough decisions in the future when it comes to their responsibilities between indoor track and cross country.

Morris looks like she is in the best shape of her life and Gear looks like a very clear All-American candidate. The 3000 meters and 5000 meters is likely sweet spot for a few of these women when it comes to their ideal racing distances, so it was nice to see this Arkansas group post something relatively quick in a shorter event.

Coming into this weekend, the entries for the Corky Classic suggested that Takieddine Hedeilli (Texas Tech) was going to be racing unattached. That, however, wasn't the case as Hedeilli apparently did run in a Red Raiders singlet.

The Algerian middle distance star posted an outstanding new personal best of 1:45.98 which earned a minor altitude conversion of 1:45.68. That's a huge, game-changing performance that drastically alters our perception of who could win the men's 800 meter national title this winter.

Hedeilli ran 1:48 last winter and was one of the last names who was able to sneak into the national meet before it was cancelled. We knew he was talented, but to see him come out of nowhere and drop a sub-1:46 performance in his season debut forces us to reevaluate our understanding of who can win NCAA gold in March.

John Rivera and his Ole Miss teammates seem primed for future success, Cooper Williams had a nice season opener, Dom Perretta is back for this season and Luis Peralta is a name to watch...but can anyone match the overwhelming firepower that we just saw from Hedeilli?

Now, admittedly, it's only one meet and we still don't have a ton of tape on how Takieddine Hedeilli performs when a race turns tactical. Even so, the Texas Tech star has caused us to go back and reevaluate who the national title favorite is in a year where the gold medal is open for the taking.

Let's stick with the 800 meters, but talk about the women this time. Clemson's Laurie Barton, one of the top middle distance runners in the national, made her 800 meter debut this past weekend, dropping a promising time of 2:05.10 which currently sits far behind Athing Mu at NCAA #2.

Truthfully, Barton's performance was largely unsurprising. She owns an indoor personal best of 2:03.72 and was the ACC champion last winter. Starting off her season with a mark of 2:05, while certainly impressive, is more or less what we expected from someone of her caliber.

However, Barton did lead a field of women to some breakout performances, including one new name who has since jumped onto our radar.

Kennesaw State's Sarah Hendrick has now burst onto the national scene, running a personal best of 2:05.81 this past weekend. That's a great performance for the current junior who continues to trend in the right direction with each passing year.

Hendrick has run 2:06 multiple times throughout her career, but now seems primed to take the next step forward where she is contending for a national qualifying spot. Her resume shows some quietly impressive consistency and she wasn't far from taking down Barton this past weekend.

Don't be surprise if you see the Kennesaw State runner get mentioned a few more times this winter.

For all of you non-football fans out there, Tom Brady is a superstar NFL quarterback who used to play for the Michigan Wolverines back in college. Now, there's another Tom Brady in Ann Arbor and he's beginning to find some significant success of his own.

This is now Brady's second year in the NCAA, but he's one of the many names who have (and will) come out of nowhere this season. The Michigan runner posted a time of 7:58 for 3000 meters this past weekend on his home track, taking down high-caliber cross country All-Americans in Curt Eckstein (Purdue) and teammate Devin Meyrer (Michigan).

There is so much to like about this performance. Some of Michigan's top distance talents are beginning to age and they are nearing the end of their eligibility. Seeing a sophomore like Brady step up is huge and should be wildly encouraging for the Wolverines as they are set to have a fairly competitive cross country squad this winter.

 After losing guys like Isaac Harding, Jordy Hewitt and Ben Hill, the emergence of a potential front-runner -- or at the very least, a solid middle-lineup scorer -- should alleviate some of the scoring gaps in Michigan's varsity lineup. If you tack on promising 3k performances from Jacob Lee (8:04) and Oli Raimond (8:05), then the departure of Harding, Hewitt and Hill doesn't seem so bad.

We still need to see how Brady and company will translate their indoor success to the grass, but we'll be able to find that out relatively soon as the BIG 10 XC Championships are scheduled for the end of this month.

Sticking with the Simmons-Harvey Invitational that took place in Ann Arbor this past weekend, we got to see an awesome battle between BIG 10 rivals in the women's 3000 meters.

Michigan State veteran Jenna Magness barely edged out Michigan sophomore Ericka VanderLende for the win, running 9:20.65 to VanderLende's 9:20.68. Michigan rookie Katelynne Hart made her season debut as she posted a time of 9:21, just four seconds off of her personal best.

Sarah Schmitt (Indiana) and Lynsie Gram (Michigan State) rounded out the top five collegiate finishers with marks of 9:24 and 9:25, respectively.
 

Although none of these times blow you out of water, they were still encouraging performances for both Michigan and Michigan State.

For the Wolverines, it looks like Hart is adjusting well to the collegiate scene and it's nice to see VanderLende essentially match her 3k personal best from last winter. There are still a ton of questions surrounding the rest of this Michigan women's cross country team, but knowing that Hart can be competitive during her rookie year (based on one race) is a good sign.

As for Michigan State, they lost a handful of top All-American talents from last year's roster, but Magness looks like a true front-runner, Gram has made promising improvements and there are still plenty of women on this team who are better suited for the grass.

There's not a whole lot more that we can pull from this race, but it was a great battle nonetheless.

Every year, I always ask myself if Ole Miss can continue to be a middle distance powerhouse...and every year they prove that they can.

On Saturday, the Rebels had junior Baylor Franklin and senior Everett Smulders go 1-2 at the Vanderbilt Invitational, posting highly impressive times of 1:48.61 and 1:48.75, respectively. Those are two big-time performances that should allow both men to qualify for the NCAA Championships later this season.

For Franklin, this is a major breakout performance. He had run 1:49 in a time trial prior to this season, but had never run faster than 1:51 at the collegiate level.

As for Smulders, this is a massive step in the right direction. He's had a few up-and-down performances throughout his career, but starting out this season with a brand new personal best is encouraging and should get us excited about what he can do in the mile later this season. His personal best currently sits at 4:01.

With Franklin and Smulders now owning personal bests of 1:48, the Ole Miss Rebels now have a total of six men on their roster who have (knowingly) run 1:48 or faster. Those names include Franklin, Smulders, Waleed Suliman, Cade Bethmann, Griffin Riley and John Rivera.

Kudos to Coach Vanhoy who continues to put Mississippi in contention for the title of "800U".

A pair of BIG 10 talents toed the line for the mile this weekend and they each introduced themselves to the NCAA in a big way.

In Michigan, Tom Dodd represented the Wolverines for the first time in his collegiate career after transferring into the program from England this past summer. With a mile personal best of 4:01, Dodd was favored to take home the win this past weekend (which is exactly what happened). He pulled away for a relatively easy win in a time of 4:03.

Meanwhile, Evan Dorenkamp had a major breakout performance in State College this past weekend, dropping a 4:01 personal best in the mile. Previously, Dorenkamp had never run faster than 4:08.99 at the collegiate level.

Dorenkamp was one of six Penn State runners who ran under 4:10 last winter. Of those six men, five of them are expected to return this winter. If Dorenkamp is having so much success and nearing the sub-four minute mile barrier in his season debut, what does that mean for the rest of his Penn State teammates?

Now, obviously, the success of one runner is not entirely indicative of the future success for the rest of a group. Even so, it's hard not to think about what other top middle distance weapons the Nittany Lions still have in their back pocket.

We have to give some credit to both Bethany Hasz and Amanda Vestri who essentially soloed some of the fastest women's 5k times in the country this past weekend.

After running an encouraging 9:24 for 3000 meters in her season debut, Bethany Hasz toed the line at the Husker Triangular and posted an outstanding NCAA #1 mark of 15:50 for 5000 meters. For perspective, that time would have comfortably qualified her for last year's indoor national meet.

As for Vestri, she had a strong finish to her 2020 cross country season, finishing 2nd at the ACC Championships, beating out NC State low-stick Hannah Steelman in the process. The Syracuse leader maintained her cross country fitness and carried her momentum to the indoor oval where she ran a personal best time of 16:09 at the Virginia Tech Invitational this past weekend.

For the most part, both of these women have recently proven (on more than one occasion) that they are both in excellent fitness. Hasz continues to solo some of the fastest times in the NCAA while Vestri is proving that she may be in the best shape of her life.

Before Takieddine Hedeilli dropped a 1:45 this past weekend, you could make the argument that Cooper Williams was going to be the national title favorite in the men's 800 meters this winter. Although that conversation is now a bit more complicated, that shouldn't take away from the great start that we saw from Williams this past weekend.

The Indiana veteran kicked off his season at the Harvey-Simmons Invitational, running 1:48.65 (NCAA #2) en route to a comfortable win over teammate Teddy Browning.

That's a nice start for Williams, but the real scrutiny won't begin until he gets to a championship meet or has to race more tactically. He wasn't the most consistent runner last winter when it came to earning top finishes, but few men in the NCAA are safer locks to become an All-American than Williams.

BYU's Aubrey Frentheway is a name that we haven't always given enough credit or attention to. That, however, will likely be changing after she just ran a very promising time in the 3000 meters in her season opener.

The BYU runner produced a time of 9:36 on Saturday, although after an altitude conversion, that time becomes 9:23 (NCAA #4). There are a handful of youngsters and rising talents on this BYU roster, but Frentheway has been one of more the steady and reliable names on this team for a couple years now. Don't be surprised if she only builds on that performance as the season progresses.

We should also mention Summer Allen, a veteran for Weber State. She finished 3rd overall (2nd attached athlete) in that same 3000 meter race with a time of 9:41, which eventually earned an altitude conversion of 9:28.

The Weber State men have garnered some attention as of late for their recent accomplishments, but this was a nice run for Summer Allen. She could be a key name to watch in cross country if she runs on the grass this winter.