First Thoughts: Robinson Goes 13:11, McCabe Edges Markezich, Messaoudi Stuns & Tuohy's 15:15 (Pt. 1)

Alright, this was a very busy weekend, so for the sake of time, we're going to break down our analysis into two parts. If you don't see a certain event or top performance covered in this article, then you'll likely see it in tomorrow's analysis.

So with that, let's talk track...

The grass is green, the sky is blue and Katelyn Tuohy is still the best distance runner in the NCAA. And truthfully, even if she had a bad race this past weekend, that would still remain true.

I admittedly don't have a whole lot to talk about when it comes to Katelyn Tuohy's most recent 5k effort. She was the only collegiate to initially follow the fast pace set by the pros, most likely in an effort to potentially scare the NCAA record.

But in the end, the pace was just a bit too hot for Tuohy who is coming off of a long season of racing on the grass. With a handful of laps remaining, it seemed like the Wolfpack star was truly going all-out and to the bottom of her aerobic well, something that we hadn't really seen from her this past fall.

While she didn't get the NCAA record, she was still within reasonable striking distance of that 15:12 mark, going 15:15 and producing a time that made us shrug our shoulders and say, "Yeah, that's about right."

However, if that 5k race had been another lap longer, I don't know if the NC State phenom would have held off Alabama's Hilda Olemomoi and Mercy Chelangat who cut down the gap between them in Tuohy (substantially) in the final moments of that 5k race.

Olemomoi and Chelangat ran 15:17 and 15:18, respectively, on Saturday evening, producing fantastic marks which, admittedly, didn't seem totally out of the realm of possibility for either of them.

I'll admit, I wasn't entirely sure what to think about Olemomoi going into this race. In theory, this field was going to favor her racing style and she probably had some of the best momentum of anyone in this field. She also seemed to have some untapped upside that is often associated with younger runners of her caliber.

But the former JUCO star is still relatively inexperienced at this level despite her fantastic campaign on the grass this past fall. And in an indoor track race that is all about time and raw fitness rather than positioning and placement, it could have been very easy for this Crimson Tide youngster to falter in this setting.

That, of course, wasn't the case.

Olemomoi's 15:17 PR puts her at an entirely different level. And while I don't think that this race is a fair assessment of how she'll fare in a championship setting (which applies to everyone in this field), I do think it tells us that she's going to be a major problem in the near future.

I don't know if she'll win a national title this year...but next year? Or in late 2024? Well, I would maybe put a futures bet down on that (only because I'm not in the NCAA, of course).

Chelangat's 15:18 mark was also fantastic, although I don't know if I'm totally shocked by it. This race favored her all-out front-running tendencies and she was clearly much more fit than what her performance at the cross country national meet suggested.

Plus, she owns a 15:17 personal best from last spring, so this result wasn't too surprising (although it doesn't make her race any less impressive).

Oklahoma State's superstar freshman, Natalie Cook, was the fourth collegiate to cross the line in 7th place overall, posting a fantastic time of 15:24 which is a new PR for her by one second. That's a new American Junior Record (U20) for the indoor 5k.

Everything that I said about Olemomoi can be applied to Cook. We knew that she was one of the most naturally gifted runners in this field, but I questioned how her general youth and inexperience would hold up in a setting that she has never seen before.

Don't be mistaken, Cook has raced in a handful of loaded meets even before she got to the NCAA. After all, she ran 15:25 for 5000 meters last spring at the Stanford Invite, a race where she defeated every collegiate in the field and placed 3rd overall.

But Cook's resume on the indoor oval is far more limited than it is on the outdoor track or on the grass. If we're reading her MileSplit profile correctly, then she has only ever toed the line for four indoor track races during her time as a prep runner (and a handful of en route marks will make it seem like she has run more races than just four).

That's why her latest result is so. darn. impressive.

NC State veteran Kelsey Chmiel ran 15:27 this past weekend as she essentially matched her personal best from exactly one year ago at this same meet.

I'll admit, I thought Chmiel would at least run a little bit faster this weekend. She was beyond fantastic on the grass this past fall and looked like she was in the best shape of her life. On the track, she has also built her reputation in the 5k and the 10k while often thriving in fast-paced fields such as this.

Of course, let's not act like 15:27 is a "bad" time for Chmiel -- it's still crazy fast and I still like her chances of being an All-American this winter. I just thought she had a few more seconds in her than what she actually showed.

We wrap up the first heat of the women's 5k with Northern Arizona's Elise Stearns (15:33) and Arkansas' Lauren Gregory (15:34).

There is admittedly not a ton to talk about when looking at these results. Stearns had an unreal breakout season on the grass this past fall, but it wasn't entirely clear how she would carry that fitness to the track. We knew she would be better, but by how much?

I predicted that Stearns would run 15:30, so her recent 15:33 mark isn't shocking. I have a feeling that she'll actually be better in the 10k come the spring.

As for Gregory, a 15:34 mark is really solid, although she's certainly capable of more. The Razorback star is easily the most experienced distance runner in the NCAA and has run 15:25 for 5000 meters before. We're not going to overreact to a still-solid sub-15:35 performance after she hasn't raced since last spring (she was out of NCAA eligibility in the fall).

I was dreading writing about this race.

Not because there is so much to talk about, but because I don't know how to properly express the insanity of what we saw. I don't know if I've ever seen a 5k race this deep at the collegiate level.

We saw last winter that there is an entirely new standard for distance running the NCAA, but I didn't know how much stronger the upper-tier depth could get in 2022. At some point, the general rate of improvement in the NCAA had to level off...right?

Well, if it is, then it certainly wasn't happening this past weekend.

This race was paced by Jordan Mann and Christian Noble, two pro runners who brought this field through 3000 meters in 7:57 (with Mann stepping off before Noble). Following those pacers was an often-scrambled order of Isai Rodriguez, Nico Young, Drew Bosley and Alex Maier.

We also saw Stanford star Ky Robinson with that top group, but he never really put himself in the lead group or took on pacing duties until 400 meters to go. He later traded lead changes with Bosley and Maier over those last two laps until fending off Maier and Under Armour's Eduardo Herrera in the final moments.

We can largely thank Young and Bosley for make this race as fast as it was. They opted to push the tempo after the pacers stepped off and although they faded off the leaders in the final moments, I didn't have an issue with their approach. These two guys are at their best when they're pushing the pace and the sole goal for everyone who toed the line was to run something crazy fast.

And they accomplished that!

I was also super impressed by how relentless Bosley looked throughout this race. He was truly the guy who opened up this field and he looked the best that he maybe ever has.

Of course, we're not as concerned about the middle portion of this race as we are about the end of it. The level of patience and tactical execution that Robinson showed, even in a race that was as fast as this, was so impressive.

The Stanford ace already looked like one of the more complete distance runners in the country last winter and spring, but he now looks he even more refined as a competitor after legacy-defining wins at Nuttycombe and now the Boston University Season Opener.

Would we be overreacting by saying that he's the individual national title favorite in the 5k this year? It feels so insanely early to say that, but...I don't know if it's wrong to suggest, either.

As for Alex Maier, he was also able to secure a mark of 13:11, producing yet another upper-echelon time which continues to put the Oklahoma State standout in the "elite" category. Much like Robinson, we saw Maier show a bit more patience with his in-race execution on Saturday, although it was the man who struck last (Robinson) who was ultimately victorious.

Bosley's 13:13 mark and Nico Young's 13:15 result were really strong times for the Northern Arizona duo, although I think we expected Young to be closer to the same times that we saw from Robinson and Maier.

Bosley, however, is just on a different level right now. To be as aggressive as he was and still hang on for as long as he did while producing a time of 13:13 is really scary stuff.

I'm admittedly not sure how I see this jump in fitness translating to a championship setting (which is not to say that it won't translate), but it's clear that the NAU star, much like Nico Young, is at his best when everyone's aerobic fitness, rather than their tactical positioning, is being tested.

Washington's Brian Fay (13:16) and BYU's Casey Clinger (13:17) deserve some respect. In a race where the most elite talents in the field were gunning from the front, these two western-based distance runners took a more conservative approach, opting to hang around in the middle of the pack.

For Fay, this result wasn't too surprising as he ultimately matched his personal best in this event. We've seen him succeed in a handful of different race scenarios and in a race as fast as this, it was hard to be too surprised.

Clinger, meanwhile, has seemingly taken that next step up. He's always been an outstanding talent on the grass and one of the most reliable low-sticks that a team in the NCAA could have over the last few years.

But the BYU veteran hasn't necessarily been at the same level as guys like Nico Young, Brian Fay, Drew Bosley, Alex Maier, the Stanford trio, Dylan Jacobs and a maybe one or two others over the last couple of years.

And although a lot of those names ultimately got the better of Clinger on Saturday, running a mark of 13:17 and pairing that with a 7th place at the NCAA XC Championships certainly puts him closer to that conversation, if not firmly in it.

Speaking of guys who are putting themselves closer to the "elite" conversation, Harvard's Graham Blanks just validated his monster breakout race at the cross country national meet (where he placed 6th) by running 13:18 on Saturday.

Blanks clearly picked up incredible momentum during the cross country season and throughout his championship races, eventually peaking when it mattered the most. However, his performance in Stillwater, Oklahoma a few weeks ago was a noticeable deviation from the other results that he had posted earlier in the fall.

That's why a time of 13:18 this past weekend brings so much more legitimacy to how consistently dangerous someone like this Harvard star can be.

And now we come to Parker Wolfe, the North Carolina sophomore who just ran 13:19 on Saturday...and "only" placed 13th overall. Much like Natalie Cook, that's a new American Junior Record (U20) for the indoor 5k.

The future of collegiate distance running looks like it's in good hands with Wolfe. After this year, you have to imagine that certain superstar names will potentially end their collegiate campaigns early and opt to turn pro. That, in turn, could open the door for Wolfe to more firmly establish himself in the seasonal conversations of national title contenders.

But for now, it's wild to think that Wolfe, despite running 13:19, is only sitting at NCAA #8 in the 5000 meters...and we're not even five days into the month of December!

Not only that, but the overall depth of the NCAA gets even crazier when you continue to go through the rest of the heat one results. Butler's Barry Keane ran 13:21, Air Force's Sam Gilman ran 13:25, Oklahoma State's Isai Rodriguez ran 13:25 and Harvard's Acer Iverson ran 13:26!

13:26! That time only gets you a single mention in an article that is all about details and in-depth analysis! Iverson currently sits at NCAA #12, meaning that we could see a scenario where the top-16 automatic national qualifying spots to the indoor national meet will likely be even faster than last year's NCAA #16 cut-off time...which was 13:26.

It's hard to say that BYU's Brandon Garnica (13:34) and Washington's Kieran Lumb (13:39) had "bad" races when they still went under 13:40, but the standard for what is a "good" result at the highest levels of the NCAA has now changed...a lot.

Remember when a 13:41 mark over 5000 meters (well, technically 13:40.99) could automatically get you into the national meet?

Yeah, that was only three years ago.

The women's 3000 meters was probably my favorite race of the weekend. Yes, maybe even more so than the men's 5000 meters! That's because this race had numerous lead changes, times that shattered our expectations and a thrilling finish.

Pacer Mille Paladino came through 1600 meters in 4:45, a perfect pacing job which then allowed Alabama ace Amaris Tyynismaa to take over lead duties.

But then Oregon State's Kaylee Mitchell took over.

And then NC State's Sam Bush took over.

And then Notre Dame's Olivia Markezich took over, effectively pulling away from the field in the final lap before eventually being hawked by West Virginia's Ceili McCabe at the line. It was one of the better finishing kicks that I've seen in a while.

However, what I couldn't get over is that even after the pacer stepped off and the collegiates began to ramp up the tempo, none of the top women who were in the mix really ever faded.

In fact, I would argue that no collegiate in this first heat had a truly bad race (although there may be one or two women who could have done a bit better). I think everyone actually ran exceptionally well -- which never happens, not in the same race.

In races that are as aggressively paced and have as much movement as the women's 3k did this past Saturday, you would expect at least one or two women to have "off" days. But despite all of that, that wasn't really what happened.

Olivia Markezich put herself in a perfect position over the last lap or two, forcefully going to the front and working to establish a gap that potentially caught a few contenders off guard.

But McCabe was able to catch the move just in time, closing the gap and using her highly underrated turnover to pounce at the line, barely snagging the win over the Notre Dame star.

Of course, who won this race was probably not as important as what their times were.

For McCabe, running 8:50 is massive validation that she is still in the "elite" conversation of the women's distance runners in the NCAA despite a tough end to her cross country season.

Although truthfully, that mark wasn't totally unrealistic for the West Virginia star. Sure, she was certainly on the faster end of what we expected, but she is most certainly one of the top women in the country, and I think we already knew that.

Of course, the conversation is a bit different for Markezich. The Fighting Irish ace was great last winter, excellent in the steeplechase last spring and phenomenal on the grass this past fall, specifically in the postseason.

Few women have the same kind of rising momentum that Markezich does. She has caught fire and it has shown in the steady progression of her times and overall finishes. The South Bend, Indiana runner placed 8th at the cross country national meet and now just validated her fitness with a mind-blowing 8:50 mark.

We admittedly had questions about how Markezich would fare in this kind of field. Her prior personal best was "only" 9:08 and we didn't know how much of her cross country fitness would translate to the track.

But running 8:50 puts her in a different conversation. We'll still need to see more from her throughout the rest of this season, mainly in other events, but Markezich has looked like a fully-refined competitor over the last four months.

Sam Bush placing 3rd overall in 8:54 was another really nice result as she matched her personal best from this same meet back in 2021.

However, I was a little surprised to see her take the lead with just a touch over 400 meters to go. I thought that given her 2:04 speed over 800 meters and 2:43 PR over 1000 meters that Bush would wait to make her move until 200 meters to go, or even 150 meters.

Would that have changed the final outcome of this race? Maybe not, but I do think it could have potentially salvaged a second or two. Either way, she looked fantastic.

Alright, let's talk about everyone else.

The rest of the women in this field were beyond impressive. Harvard's Maia Ramsden also ran 8:54 while Oregon State's Kaylee Mitchell, Alabama's Amaris Tyynismaa, Duke's Amina Maatoug and Oregon State's Grace Fetherstonhaugh all went under 8:56, recording personal bests of 8:55 in the process.

Here's the thing: If you had gone through each of those women, one by one, and said, "Could this woman run 8:55?" I probably would have said yes to most of them (likely not all). However, just because I would have said yes to a majority of that group doesn't mean that I would have made that prediction (and I obviously didn't).

Were these women capable of running this fast? Sure, but for everyone to have the absolute best races of their lives (with the possible exception of Tyynismaa who arguably has stronger accolades elsewhere) on the same day with no one running poorly?

That doesn't happen. It's extremely rare.

And yet, at the same time, there were signs that each of these women had the potential for massive success.

Ramsden and Maatoug had previously built their reputations in events like the 800 meters and 1500 meters, but just had fantastic success on the grass, theoretically making the 3000 meters their middle-ground sweet spot in terms of event specialty.

Mitchell and Fetherstonhaugh had already proven to be at their best over the 3000 meter distance, both with and without barriers and water pits. And with a clear jump up in their fitness this past fall, it wasn't ridiculous to suggest that they could post a time of 8:55 (or at least something close to that).

As for Tyynismaa, she has proven to be one of the most lethal distance talents in the NCAA when she's 100% healthy. And given that she just peaked perfectly for the postseason (placing 9th at the cross country national meet), it would make sense that a 4:33 miler like her would slightly step down from the cross country 6k to a distance that perfectly favored her current level of fitness and her established skillset.

So when you break it all down...maybe we shouldn't be too surprised by these results after all.

This section will be a bit shorter than the women's 3k race, mainly because there were only a handful of collegiates results that we feel are worth highlighting.

Coming into this race, guys like Yaseen Abdalla and Fouad Messaoudi were viewed as the collegiate favorites while Jesse Hamlin was viewed as a "sleeper" pick. And with Nike pro Craig Engels also in this field, it seemed like we would have a fairly entertaining race.

And yet, at the same time, our expectations for this 3k battle were admittedly conservative.

We were still trying to figure out exactly how good Messaoudi was after his breakout cross country national meet effort, Hamlin had proven to be more of a 1500 meter guy, we didn't have an amazing idea as to where Engel's fitness was at (or what his goals were) and this Boston University 3k race has rarely been super fast, at least on the men's side it has.

Pacer Drew Piazza led the field through the mile in 4:10, an honest pace which Messaoudi, Abdalla, Engels and Hamlin followed in a single-file line. From there, Messaoudi took control of the pace, firmly establishing a strong tempo while Abdalla bounced around behind him, trying to find better positioning.

With just under two laps remaining, Engels went to the front while Abdalla faded. Messaoudi didn't relent after being passed and Hamlin quietly stuck behind both men going into the final loop.

But just when you thought that Engels was going to pull away from the field, it was actually Messaoudi who made a convincing surge to overtake Engels which Hamlin then followed on the back straightaway. Both men turned on different gears to power away from the Nike star.

And as they approached the final curve, Hamlin looked like he had a shot to potentially catch the Oklahoma State star on his right shoulder. But Messaoudi had enough to strength to maintain his position and effectively take the win, 7:44.26 to 7:44.69.

This was an unreal race. Both Messaoudi and Hamlin looked beyond fantastic. They didn't just look fit from the cross country season, they looked VERY sharp. The control that they had over their fitness on Saturday was thrilling to see, especially when they overtook one of the top professional distance runners in the country (who is truthfully more of a miler).
 

For Messaoudi, this result is massive validation when it comes to the end of his most recent cross country season. He finished 6th at the BIG 12 XC Championships in his first race of the fall months, but then shocked the nation at the NCAA XC Championships by placing 12th.

We knew that this Moroccan distance ace was a talented track runner, and we figured that he had improved since last winter and spring, but running 7:44? No way did we expect something that fast from him, certainly not this weekend.

If you had told me that Messaoudi was going to run 7:48 or even 7:47 on Saturday, I would have been skeptical, but I wouldn't have dismissed that idea. That's why I'm so blown away by a mark of 7:44.

But truthfully, it may be Hamlin whose mark is the bigger surprise. Unlike Messaoudi, he really hadn't shown on any occasion that he could run at this kind of level, at least not in the longer distances.

Hamlin has run 3:38 for 1500 meters twice throughout his career. However, his 5k personal bests currently sits at "only" 13:55. And although he showed promise on the grass, his 119th place finish at the NCAA XC Championships was largely unsurprising.

The 3k was a great event choice for a guy who had a fall base that he could pair with his top-tier 1500 meter speed. But even then, I did not at all see him running 7:44. It's almost unreal.

As for Abdalla, he faded in this race, ultimately running 7:55. He seemed to be bouncing around the lead pack and never really settled into a position during the second-half of the race, putting himself in a tough spot when trying to respond to late moves.

Even so, I wouldn't look too much into this performance. Abdalla is a great 3k runner and just had a fantastic cross country season. He'll be fine in the future.