Admin (Garrett Zatlin)
Apr 1516 min
Well that was fun, huh?
As expected, this past weekend was filled with historic performances and conversation-altering times. Many of the top efforts that we saw came at the Bryan Clay Invitational, but there were certainly plenty of strong results elsewhere.
Due to the mass number of competitive marks that we saw this past weekend, we'll be splitting our "First Thoughts" analysis into two parts. And yes, you guessed it, we are publishing "Part One" today.
There's no time to waste, let's get into it...
EDITOR's NOTE: An article on Parker Valby's NCAA 10k record was published on Saturday. You can read that piece by clicking here.
This past winter, at the Boston U. John Thomas Terrier Classic, Northern Arizona sophomore Colin Sahlman stunned the top section of the men's mile field to secure a huge win and earn a blistering-fast PR of 3:53.
And while that was certainly an incredible result, that performance didn't come all that close to what he just pulled off on Saturday night at the Bryan Clay Invitational.
The opening pace in the invitational section of the men's 1500 meters was insanely fast as pro runners Sam Ellis and Kieran Lumb went to work while Washington's Luke Houser was the top pursuant. Behind him was a combination Fouad Messaoudi (Oklahoma State), Nathan Green (Washington) and of course, Sahlman.
With one lap to go, Sahlman and Green began to move up and position themselves for some last lap heroics. And after navigating around Messaoudi, both men threw down monster kicks with 200 meters to go that left the rest of the field out of contention. And on that final straightaway, it was Sahlman inching ahead to run an unbelievable time of 3:33.96 for 1500 meters. Green earned runner-up honors in 3:34.
Trying to digest this performance is challenging. We knew that Sahlman was talented and we knew that his range would still allow him to have a great kick even in an aggressively paced race like he just saw. But running 3:33.96 for 1500 meters, and barely missing Eliud Kipsang's collegiate record of 3:33.74, is beyond incredible.
Sahlman has elite pedigree and was one of the top high school distance runners ever. But even as a sophomore, suggesting that he was going to barely miss out on the collegiate record seemed like a stretch.
So how do we interpret this performance? Does this mean that Colin Sahlman is the sole national title favorite in this event despite only placing 6th in the mile finals at the NCAA Indoor Championships?
Well, I don't know if I would go that far, but at this point, you absolutely have to consider him as one of the few men who are legitimate national title favorites. As we have said countless times, time trial environments like we saw this past weekend differ dramatically from how most national meet races usually play out.
Even so, how Sahlman navigated Saturday night's field in the rain was extremely impressive. He put himself in the top-half of the field for the entire race, knew when to make his move and ultimately out-kicked one of the best finishers in the NCAA (Nathan Green).
Massive kudos to Colin Sahlman. I didn't think there were many outcomes in yesterday's invitational race that would surprise me, but the second-year Lumberjack did just that.
As for Nathan Green, this was such a tremendous rebound for him after a challenging last month of racing. He didn't necessarily need to run an NCAA #4 all-time mark of 3:34 last night to remain in the national title conversation. He did, however, need to show progress and post a result that was more encouraging than not.
Thankfully, Green did exactly that. And he even though he got out-kicked by Sahlman at the end, the Husky distance star still showcased outstanding finishing speed that can, once again, allow him to win a national title in June.
Unfortunately, Green's teammates, Luke Houser and Joe Waskom, didn't have their best performances.
Houser admirably went to the front and followed the pacers through the first-half of the race. But going into the bell lap, the back-to-back NCAA mile national champion began to fade and couldn't respond to the moves being made around him. And Waskom? Well, he put himself in the middle of this field for most of the race, but didn't have much left in the final lap.
When the 1500-meter results were shown, Houser had run 3:42 while Waskom had run 3:43.
For Houser, this is hardly a worrisome result. He just defended his mile national title last month and showed throughout the winter months that he was crazy fit. And when you consider how aggressive he was in the first-half of this race, that tells me that he also believes that he's great shape.
However, the story for Waskom is a bit different.
The 2022 NCAA 1500-meter national champion hasn't looked like himself since February and this past weekend seemed to a microcosm of those struggles. As I've said before, he's still running at a nationally competitive level, but it's getting increasingly more difficult to keep this obviously incredible talent in our rankings.
Let's chat about Fouad Messaoudi, the Oklahoma State star who left us scratching our heads throughout the winter months.
The Cowboy star was largely absent for the indoor track season until the BIG 12 Indoor Championships were he underwhelmed with a 14th place finish over 3000 meters. Naturally, you could understand our skepticism about him racing in the invitational section this weekend.
But obviously, Messaoudi was plenty prepared. He had a noticeable presence near the front of this race and simply hung tough the entire time. And when the Moroccan distance star crossed the line, he recorded an excellent 3:36 (1500) effort.
It doesn't feel like this Cowboy standout is near/at the top form that he was in last winter and spring. That, of course, is an extremely challenging tier to reach. However, knowing that Messaoudi is that talented and that he's running this well after a one-race indoor track season is very encouraging.
I wouldn't totally take him out of the national title conversation for June, although he'll need to work and refine his speed after seeing what Sahlman and Green just produced.
Villanova's Liam Murphy was just behind Messaoudi with a 3:36 (1500) mark of his own. And while I want to offer some analysis on this result, I don't really have much to say. That was very much on par with what we thought the Wildcat ace could do and I'm not sure that we really learned much about him (which, of course, is not a bad thing).
Drake's Isaac Basten ran 3:40 for 1500 meters in a race that he himself will admit is not at all what he prefers. An ultra-aggressive first lap for someone who is more of a tactical racer isn't ideal. Even so, he'll need to rally back through April and May after a challenging last month of tough races.
As for a few others, section two was highlighted by Virginia's Gary Martin who made a huge statement with a 3:37 (1500) win. He was followed by Georgetown All-American Abel Teffra who ran 3:38 while Iowa State's Ezekiel Rop, Oregon's Elliott Cook and Florida's Parvej Khan all ran 3:38 as well.
Virginia's Wes Porter was the final collegian under the 3:40 barrier after he won his 1500-meter section in a time of 3:39.
I don't think anyone is all too surprised with the men who ran under 3:40 for the metric mile distance at the Bryan Clay Invitational. All of these men have proven that they were capable of that feat in prior races. Even so, it is becoming more and more challenging to find a critique with Martin. His range is arguably the best in the NCAA and we're beginning to see his mile/1500-meter fitness catch up to his intangibles.
He may not have been in the "invitational" section, but a win in the second section is a very, very big deal at a meet like Bryan Clay.
I've gotta admit, I don't always understand the seeding logic for the men's and women's 1500-meter invitational sections at the Bryan Clay Invitational (more so the latter than the former).
Don't get me a wrong, crafting those heats is a thankless job -- someone is always going to be unhappy about their seed. However, I didn't understand why Mia Barnett didn't make the top section last year and I didn't understand why Melissa Riggins, an All-American 4:29 miler and last year's top 1500-meter collegian at Bryan Clay (from the second-best heat) wasn't entered in the invitational section in 2024.
Nonetheless, the dynamic Georgetown star showed out once again. She was the only one who initially went with the pacer from the gun (although BYU's Riley Chamberlain quickly caught up) and she helped string out the field in the early going of her section.
When the pacer stepped off, Riggins continued to push while Chamberlain and Washington's Chloe Foerster were directly behind her (along with a few pros) going into the final lap. And once they reached the final straightaway, Riggins was passed by Adidas pro Anna Camp Bennett, but was able to barely fend off Foerster who came in charging hard off the curve.
When the dust settled, Riggins and Foerster had actually tied at 4:07.96 for 1500 meters and it was the former who barely got top collegiate honors by four one thousandths of a second. And despite the top section featuring names who were arguably even more accomplished, no collegian from that heat was able to topple the time that Riggins or Foerster produced.
I think the biggest takeaway from Riggins' race is that she was willing to go to the front and establish something fast. And with her newfound aerobic strength that she has flexed throughout this year, I really liked that approach. That display of front-running gives her far greater flexibility in a variety of race scenarios that she could/will see on the national stage.
As for Foerster, this was a great way to rebound from a tough end to her indoor track season. Yes, she did put together a nice weekend double at the Stanford Invite, but a 4:07 mark for 1500 meters as a sophomore is huge validation for the 4:28 mile PR that she ran during the winter months.
And maybe more importantly, this Husky ace was able to display great finishing speed in an all-out, strength-based race.
We then come to the top section of the women's 1500 meters. And I'll admit, this was the race that made me throw my hands up and regret that I even published predictions for any of the distance races this past weekend.
The top section featured collegians such as Billah Jepkiuri (Oklahoma State), Maddy Elmore (Oregon), Flomena Asekol (Florida), Gracie Hyde (Adams State), Margot Appleton (Virginia), Klaudia Kazimierska (Oregon) and Silan Ayyildiz (Oregon).
For the most part, everyone in this field was together going into the last lap. And although Jepkirui took over for a good portion of that last lap, she could only fend off so many women in the final straightaway. In a mad dash to the line, it was Oregon's Klaudia Kazimierska who emerged as the top NCAA finisher in that field with a 4:08 (1500) effort.
Margot Appleton, Billah Jepkirui and Gracie Hyde all crossed the line with 4:08 marks while Maddy Elmore ran 4:09 and Flomena Asekol ran 4:11. Silan Ayyilidiz was a DNF, although she had posted an incredibly fast 5k the night before.
I have to admit, I was pretty underwhelmed with the results of the top section. That, however, isn't to say that these women ran poorly. In fact, most of them had races that would generally be considered "good" performances.
Even so, it did feel like there was so much more potential for this race to be significantly quicker. Did it help that there was steady rain throughout last night? No, that certainly wasn't conducive to fast racing, but my predictions weren't anywhere close to what I thought many of these women could run.
And yet, at the same time, I also don't think many of these women hurt their stock that much.
Jepkirui put herself in the mix to win on the final lap and I loved when she made her move. Hyde ran her second D2 record of the weekend which, truthfully, wasn't a surprise at all. Kazimierska emerged as the top collegian and did so with excellent composure. Oh, and Appleton and Asekol? Well, if a 4:11 (1500) result is considered a "tough" day, then that's a good problem to have.
The Duke Invitational will typically feature some great 1500-meter races, even with most NCAA stars venturing to Bryan Clay nowadays. And sure enough, in what was essentially a Tar Heel vs Blue Devil race, it was UNC's duo of Ethan Strand and Parker Wolfe running 3:35 and 3:36 for 1500 meters to go 1-2.
Those times were certainly better than what I was expecting them to be, especially since Strand and Wolfe won by so much.
We've known since last year that Strand had the potential to be an elite metric miler and he showed signs of that at the indoor national meet where he secured 4th place All-American honors. But running 3:35 for 1500 meters is insanely good. In fact, that mark will put him at NCAA #10 all-time (among record eligible performances) after Sahlman and Green's most recent efforts are entered into USTFCCCA.
Strand is extremely explosive and his combination of speed and strength makes him a lethal talent. He showed impressive resilience at the indoor national meet and he simply seems more sure of himself this year -- and that showed on Friday night.
As for Wolfe, I'd love to give you some analysis on his effort, but I don't have much to say. His fitness is to the point where running 3:36 for 1500 meters is borderline expected out of him. The Tar Heel megastar is clearly not a mile-centric runner like Strand is, but that doesn't seem to matter as he simply has enough talent to stay competitive with him in a race like this.
Going into Friday night's race, this is what I said about Alabama star, Hilda Olemomoi...
Very few women have been as consistent as Olemomoi has throughout her career. She is no stranger to running fast times, she thrives in aerobic-centric races and she's just flat-out great. And now, as she prepares for Friday's race, she'll be tasked with racing against a few key pro runners.
However, for as good as some of these ladies are, Olemomoi isn't too far off from the top pro women in this field. I'm not saying that she's going to win, but she'll be able to chase some talented names who aren't going to leave her in no man's land.
For that reason, I see Olemomoi improving upon her current 15:17 (5k) PR, a mark which she has run three separate times. The Crimson Tide ace is due for a personal best reset and if I had to guess, she'll run around 15:13 or 15:14 tomorrow night.
Did I get her time right? Nope.
Did I expect her to win this race? Nope.
But did I accurately outline why she was due for a new 5k PR? Yes, I like to think that I did.
Hilda Olemomoi now sits at NCAA #2 all-time (for the outdoor track season) in the women's 5k after her huge five-second win at the Bryan Clay Invitational in a time of 15:06. She now sits just three seconds off of Katelyn Tuohy's NCAA outdoor 5k record of 15:03, a time that seems to be well within striking distance of this Crimson Tide standout (until Parker Valby resets the record to something insane).
Last year, Hilda Olemomoi was still getting acclimated to racing in the NCAA, consistently leaning on her fitness, but not having the edge that a few more established stars did.
That, however, is no longer the case.
The true long distance runner just took down a very good field and she did so comfortably while running the second-fastest outdoor 5k time in NCAA history. And if Parker Valby decides to only contest one event at the NCAA Outdoor Championships in June (the 5k or the 10k), then Olemomoi could legitimately be favored to win a national title depending on which event that is.
However, arguably, the more surprising result was seeing Gamecock-turned-Duck talent, Silan Ayyildiz, throw down an incredible 5000-meter PR of 15:15! That is a HUGE time for someone who we have unquestionably viewed as a miler throughout her NCAA career.
Yes, it's true, Ayyildiz has shown flashes of her strength-based talent over the last year or so. She ran 8:54 for 3000 meters during the winter and placed 7th at the SEC XC Championships this past fall. Even so, none of that would have told us that this recent transfer was going to post a mind-boggling time of 15:15 over 5000 meters!
And now, the Oregon women have TWO different women who have run 15:15 for 5000 meters this season. In fact, once the final results are entered into USTFCCCA, Ayyildiz will now sit at NCAA #11 all-time, one spot behind Elmore.
So...what does this mean for the future?
Truthfully, I'm still trying to figure that out. Ayyilidz may have just had an incredible 5k performance, but her reputation was built over the mile/1500 meters and that's where she's the most experienced. On the other hand, if she contests the 5k at the national meet and is completely fresh for that event, then she could have the upper-hand on numerous contenders who would be doubling back.
Let's chat about Bailey Hertenstein, the Colorado veteran who has had a few up and down seasons with the Buffaloes.
The former Indiana runner was solid last spring, but she clearly wasn't at her best. That's because during the fall of 2022, she was incredible, placing 5th at the NCAA XC Championships. And at certain points over the last year or two, Hertenstein has dealt with a variety of "minor" injuries (her words).
In Hertenstein's first legitimate challenge of the 2024 outdoor track season, the Colorado standout ran 15:42 for 5000 meters at the Stanford Invite. And while that was a respectable time, coming up just four seconds short of her PR, we didn't pay too much attention to that performance.
But on Friday night, Hertenstein put together a stunning performance. The endurance-based distance runner posted a phenomenal 5k time of 15:18! That was a PR by nearly 20 seconds and it is, without question, the best performance that she has ever had on the track.
Anyone who has listened to the Blue Oval Podcast for long enough or has been reading our content for long enough knows that I have a been pushing very hard for Bailey Hertenstein to focus on the 5k instead of the 1500 meters.
Nearly every aspect of her resume has suggested that she is a better long distance runner than she is a miler. And yet, Friday night was only her sixth-ever collegiate 5k race (per TFRRS). The number of 1500-meter and mile races that she's had throughout her career (per TFRRS) is 31 when you include DNF results.
Now, obviously, the workload of multiple metric mile races is far easier to handle than multiple 5k races. Even so, I have so desperately wanted the 5k to be a focal point of Hertenstein's postseason endeavors -- just look at how good she's been on the grass!
And after running 15:18 for 5000 meters, I think my long-standing request will soon come to fruition in May and hopefully June.
Going into Friday night's races, I didn't think there were many scenarios where New Mexico's Habtom Samuel was not going to be the top collegian. He wasn't too far removed from his 26:53 (10k) personal best and he held the best collegiate 5k PR in the field at 13:13.
And given his recent success, he was seemingly due to improve upon that mark.
Of course, Oklahoma State freshman Brian Musau was also in this field. And while Samuel was viewed as the overall better runner in the eyes of TSR, Musau proved during the winter months that his talent wasn't too far off from his Lobo counterpart.
In all honesty, 90% of this race wasn't all that exciting. That's because, as expected, Habtom Samuel and Brian Musau went straight to the front, attached themselves to the pacers (one of them being Nico Young) and simply went along for the ride. And when the pacers stepped off, Samuel kept his foot on the gas and tried to shake Musau.
At certain points, it looked like Musau wasn't going to hang. But with 900 meters to go, Musau overtook Samuel and attempted to run away from the last guy who I would want to try that tactic against that far out from the finish. Sure enough, as the final 200 meters unfolded, Samuel regained his lead and went all-out to truly end Musau's chances of winning.
That plan seemingly looked like it was going to work...until there was 50 meters remaining.
Somehow, Musau was able to put in one last surge and just barely get his chest past Samuel to secure the overall win in what may have been one of the more thrilling races (collegiately) that I've seen in 2024. Both men walked away with times of 13:13 (5k).
For Samuel, there's not much to say. He posted a great time that matched his PR and, for the most part, approached this race exactly like you thought he would have. He was aggressive and made strength-based moves.
But for Musau, this win felt crucial. During the winter months, the Cowboy rookie favored the mile and 3000-meter racing distances -- he never contested the 5k. With his 5k PR being 13:54 from 2022 (per World Athletics), I thought it would be a stretch for this freshman to come up in distance and take down an aerobic-centric star in Habtom Samuel.
That, of course, is exactly what happened. And while there are plenty of positive takeaways from this race if you're Musau, the most important thing that I gained from this performance is that this still-rising distance standout is relentless. Despite making a late-race move that I viewed as disadvantageous, he still earned a big-time win.
This may sound cliche, but this was the race that made me realize that Musau does, in fact, have the "it" factor. That's fairly rare for freshmen from overseas who lack experience in a variety of different categories.
But for Musau, that doesn't seem to matter.
The third collegian in this race was Adams State's Romain Legendre who ran the NCAA D2 outdoor 5k record of 13:16. The long distance Frenchman had already run the D2 indoor 5k record of 13:24 back in December, making his most recent effort not too surprising, but still on the better end of his projected upside.
For Legendre, when it comes to raw fitness, he is potentially the best runner in the aerobic-based Division Two events. And while the 5k is clearly his primary distance, I can't help but wonder what kind of damage the Adams State star would do over the 10,000-meter distance.
And frankly, I don't know if I feel all that great about the other D2 national title contenders in this year's 10k field.
As for the other collegians in this field, Wisconsin's Bob Liking had a great race, posting a fantastic 13:19 (5k) PR, although he was racing unattached. It's a similar story for Casey Clinger, the BYU ace who has been out of commission for quite some time. He just ran 13:24 in this race and was also unattached.
Alabama's Victor Kiprop ran 13:24 on Friday night, which is solid, but I'm of the impression that he can run faster. Butler's Jesse Hamlin (13:27) is beginning to establish some really nice momentum while Villanova's Marco Langon (13:28) continues to flex his range.
BYU's Joey Nokes (13:28) was solid yet again and Arkansas' Kirami Yego (13:29) performed similarly to what we saw from him this past winter. The final sub-13:30 (5k) collegian in this field was Butler's Florian Le Pallec (13:29) who added great value to his resume after running a strong 10k time at the Raleigh Relays a few weeks ago.