Admin (Garrett Zatlin)
May 2, 202118 min
I'm opting to ignore the intro today. Let's just jump right into it...
In our meet preview, we hinted at the idea of Nur going under 28 minutes for 10,000 meters if the conditions were perfect. In fact, we also said that the 10k had the potential to be Blaise Ferro's best event.
Well, it looks we were right on both accounts, but gosh, I'm not sure we were expecting to see the results that we did.
Paced by teammate Nico Young, Northern Arizona's Abdi Nur and Blaise Ferro ran 27:47 and 27:56, respectively, this past weekend in Fresno, California. This was an absolutely incredible effort, one that completely blew away our already high expectations.
Nur running under 28 minutes isn't a total shock, mainly since he ran 28:11 at this distance back in December at the Sound Running Track Meet. And yes, he was likely peaking for March back then, but to see him drop that much time from then to now? Well, that's just incredible. That kind of raw fitness, on paper, likely puts him in the same category as the Iowa State men and/or Conner Mantz. Based on this performance alone, he seems like someone who can stick with the absurdly fast pace that those men will surely throw down.
As for Ferro, the idea of him running a new personal best, despite his prior PR being 28:22, was not out of the question. After finishing 6th overall at the NCAA XC Championships in March, staying incredibly consistent throughout the year and recently running 13:31 for 5000 meters, it seemed fair to say that a sub-28:10 effort was within reach for him.
However, what we didn't expect was for him to hang on to such an aggressive pace for as long as he did. Sure, he was nine seconds back of Nur, but this was a huge display of raw fitness that I simply didn't realize he had reached.
So what does this mean in the grand scheme of things? Well, it would be nice to see what these guys can do in a quicker race like the 1500 meters, but that may not really matter in the postseason. If Nur and Ferro go up against aggressive front-runners like Kiptoo, Kurgat, Wildschutt, Mantz and a few others at the NCAA Championships, then the pace will likely be very fast. Based on this performance, that will likely benefit the Lumberjacks who seem to be more stamina-based anyway.
It's wild to think that someone as accomplished as Courtney Wayment, who is currently ranked at TSR #2, could blow us away more than she already has with such a monstrous performance. Running 9:31 for the 3000 meter steeplechase is a BEYOND impressive time. It was a BYU school record by 11 seconds and the NCAA #5 all-time mark for the event.
However, it wasn't necessarily the time that surprised me.
Wayment has had an unreal amount of success and she has even mentioned how the steeplechase may be her primary event. In retrospect, seeing her translate this newfound elite-level of fitness to the barriers and water pits shouldn't be a total shock, although that time is still faster than anything I was expecting.
What did surprise me was seeing her absolutely obliterate a steeplechase field that was loaded with some high-level talents. NC State's Hannah Steelman, a veteran All-American in this event, who has been putting together some of the best races of her life as of late, finished runner-up in this race...17-seconds back.
Steelman running 9:48 and being 17-seconds back of the winner is a scenario that I did not at all expect. And the crazy part is that this wasn't that bad of a race for the NC State star! She was two-seconds off of her personal best and she still took down a very respectable field with the exception of Wayment.
When Joyce Kimeli ran her 9:37, it was fair to say that she was the national title favorite, but not overwhelmingly so. Well, Wayment has since taken over that role and it seems like she is now a far greater national title favorite than Kimeli once was.
Does this mean Wayment is unbeatable in the steeplechase? No, not necessarily, especially in an event that is so variable and unpredictable. Even so, this BYU runner has somehow increased her stock even more. With the steeplechase likely being her focus in the postseason, does this mean that she'll potentially try the 5k and later attempt in the steeplechase/5k double at the national meet? It would certainly be a challenge, but it's realistic to pull off.
Outside of Wayment and Steelman, I think we have to give some major props to Washington's Katie Rainsberger. When she first debuted in this event earlier in the season, taking home a win in a time of 10:00, I was thrilled to see that kind of result. Yes, her time was solid, but to see her run that fast in her first-ever go at the event was the most important development in my mind. More importantly, I thought it was a refreshing and much-needed change for Rainsberger after a fairly unexciting indoor track season.
Sure enough, in her second attempt, the Husky standout followed a fast pace to settle for 3rd place overall, finishing just one second behind Steelman. That is a huge development, as it validates my suspicion that this move to the steeple was going to be a wildly beneficial decision for Rainsberger.
Now, admittedly, her inexperience in this event, specifically in the postseason, isn't ideal and that can certainly come back to hurt her, especially in a race as technical as this one. Even so, she probably has some of the best momentum in the NCAA right now when it comes to her specific event and she may even carry this momentum to even better performances in other races.
As for Sara Musselman (10:00) and Mahala Norris (10:03), these are very solid results. They may not get a ton of attention since they didn't dip under the 10 minute barrier, but these two women can absolutely be in the national qualifying conversation with those kind of marks.
I'll be fascinated to see what Norris does over the next month or so. She had incredible success this past winter at the NCAA XC Championships and NCAA Indoor Championships, but it still feels like the 5k or 10k would be her best options for the postseason -- two events that she has yet to contest this spring.
Wayment's dominating win and time was probably the best women's performance of the weekend, but seeing Arkansas' Krissy Gear battle with BYU's Whittni Orton was probably the most exciting matchup of the weekend.
Gear's first 1500 meter effort of this outdoor track season took place at the newly renovated Hayward Field. The result? Not good. She faltered in that race, finishing 7th overall behind a massive contingent of BYU women and even a few of her own teammates. For someone who ran a 4:31 mile this past winter and finished runner-up at the indoor national meet, that wasn't a great look for Gear.
However, the Razorback star has since rebounded with a string of statement performances, almost as if to say that her 1500 result from earlier the season was obviously a fluke. She has since run 9:45 in the steeplechase, 2:04 in the 800 meters and now 4:09 in the 1500 meters.
Gear proved this past winter that she was one of the most versatile distance runners in the country, especially with her All-American finish at the NCAA XC Championships back in March. Of course, this spring has been the best display of her true versatility. It's not just how dynamic she is, but it's the fact that she's running national-caliber times in pretty much any race she toes the line for. Frankly, it's absurd.
Her 9:45 steeple and 2:04 half-mile marks are wildly encouraging, but the more promising development is seeing Gear take down a highly-ranked name in Whittni Orton in a race as fast as this one. That's a major victory and it shows us that Gear can still be in contention for the national title in the 1500 meters if she opts to pursue this event in the postseason.
Of course, just like the indoor track season, Sage Hurta still holds the designation of being this year's national title favorite in the 1500 meters after running 4:08 the other weekend. Still, Gear appears to be just as much of a threat now as she was back in March.
As for Orton? Well, this was a massive rebound performance for her. Yes, her 5k win at the Hayward Premiere meet was strong, but seeing her run 4:09 legitimizes the idea that she is returning to the elite-level of fitness after battling a minor injury this past winter.
I'll admit, seeing Orton run that fast and not get the win is a little bit of a bummer, but I would have said the exact same thing about Krissy Gear if she was the one who was 0.31 seconds behind the winner. Does that runner-up finish mean anything in the grand scheme of things? No, probably not, but it does show that Orton is still beatable (for now) unlike her 2020 indoor track season.
When then come to Anna Camp who has been so darn good.
Between Wayment and Orton, it's easy to get distracted by the fact that Anna Camp isn't that far off from those two in terms of her actual talent. She took 3rd place in the 1500 meters this past weekend with a time of 4:11. But honestly? That seems to be on par with our expectations. She really is that good and her range is extensive.
Not only that, but we have to recognize how consistent Camp has been as of late. When was the last time she had a bad race? Would a 7th place finish at the Oklahoma State Invitational really be considered a poor performance? I don't think so, but that's probably the least impressive result she's had this year and that's a bit crazy to think about.
And how about Colorado's Michaela Degenero? She was a solid distance talent at Michigan, but the graduate transfer has thrived with the Buffaloes. The former Wolverine just ran 4:12 for 1500 meters this past weekend, finishing 4th overall and earning a top time that I frankly didn't think she would run.
Don't get me wrong, Degenero is plenty talented and her results from this past cross country season indicated that she was going to (probably) have the best track season of her career this spring. Even then, I didn't think we'd see a 4:12 personal best out of her this season. This was an eight-second personal best when comparing that time to her marks at Michigan (and a four-second PR from earlier in the season).
Degenero has plenty of momentum and should not be overlooked in a field that had elite talents like Gear, Orton and Camp.
If you go down the rest of these results, I honestly can't say that anyone had a poor performance. In fact, I would argue that almost every woman in this field posted a very solid time.
The slowest mark was 4:17 and other key talents like Olivia Hoj (4:13), Petronela Simiuc (4:13) and Katelyn Tuohy (4:14) all met our expectations. Sure, maybe Arkansas' Carina Viljoen (4:14) could've been a second better and a few places higher, but for the most part, no one really had a bad race in this field...and that's super rare.
The men's 1500 meters is just insanely deep this year. I've never seen anything like this. We now have 32 men who have run under 3:40 this year. 32! That's beyond incredible. For perspective, the 2017 outdoor track season had only three men who cracked that barrier.
Now, just this past weekend, we saw nine collegiate run under 3:40 in a single race.
The Fresno State West Coast Relays featured an elite 1500 meter field where Adidas professional Sam Prakel took home the win in a time of 3:36. However, the men behind him were beyond impressive, validating past performances and conversions.
BYU's Talem Franco was the top collegiate in an impressive time of 3:37 while teammate Lucas Bons continues his breakout year with his own mark of 3:37, matching his altitude mile conversion from the week prior. Conner Mantz was the fourth-best collegiate to cross the line, also running 3:37.96 while Casey Clinger was the sixth-best collegiate in a time of 3:38.
There is so much to take away from what the Cougars just did. They just had four men run 3:38 or faster. Those altitude conversions don't seem quite as crazy now, although Clinger was maybe a touch slower than his conversion indicated. Either way, it's good to know that Clinger has this kind of speed which is super encouraging moving forward. Will he be able to apply it in a tactical, postseason setting? That has yet to be seen, but this performance can only help his cause.
When it comes to Talem Franco, I love his consistency at this distance. He's a true veteran who has really been on fire since the 2020 indoor track season. He is a solid 800 meter runner who has learned how to put himself at the top of high-level fields. I was admittedly unsure why Franco was running the 1500 so often, but much like Ryan Adams, it's probably because he's going after the OTQ mark of 3:37.50 -- a time that he missed by 0.05 seconds.
As for Mantz, part of me is super impressed to see him run 3:37, but another part of me feels like his overall talent level put him in this range. Still, I'm not sure I saw him running this fast and having this much turnover. Will this speed be used in a tactical postseason setting? Maybe, but much like Clinger, I would rather see Mantz continue his run-from-the-front aggression rather than putting himself in a sit-and-kick scenario. I think most people would agree with me.
Let's also talk about Eduardo Herrera. He ran 3:38 for 1500 meters, following the fast pace to a very strong personal best. While he may be more of a long distance specialist like some of the BYU guys I already mentioned, I actually think this performance translates a bit more to the postseason tactics that I often talk about.
Why? Well, earlier this season, we saw Herrera run 13:24 at the Hayward Premiere meet, using his speed over the final 200 to 300 meters in order to fend off charges from the BYU men. Were the Cougars likely primed for a quick finish after coming off of a cross country season? No, probably not, but the same argument could be made for Herrera.
Either way, it's nice for him to have this kind of turnover. He's willing to put himself in the mix of a fast race, but his past display of finishing speed paired with this 1500 meter result is definitely encouraging.
When it comes to the rest of this field, we need to talk about the Washington State men. Paul Ryan and Zach Stallings have been great in past seasons, running under four minutes and consistently battling with some of the top names in the NCAA.
Even so, I wasn't expecting Ryan to drop all the way down to 3:37. If we're doing a 18-second conversion, that roughly translates to a 3:55 and that's just absurdly fast, even for someone as talented as himself.
Stallings' running 3:39 seems to be on par with expectations, although that doesn't make him any less talented. Even so, I still want to see how he handles the postseason after a less-than-stellar mile prelim at the NCAA Indoor Championships back in March.
Finally, let's talk about the Washington Huskies. Is it crazy to say that two men who ran 3:38 and 3:39 had poor performances? Well, those are the two times that we saw from Sam Tanner and Mick Stanovsek.
This isn't necessarily a poor performance from Stanovsek. It matches his lifetime personal bests and validates that he's still a top talent. Even so, he was a bit further back in this field and it seems like he has yet to really reach that next tier where he can be contending for a top finish at the national meet.
As for Tanner, seeing him drop to 8th place overall and run 3:38 is just surprising. He ran 3:34 for 1500 meters on the indoor oval, so seeing him drop back in a field that is relatively less competitive isn't ideal. It also isn't great that he failed to get out of the prelims at the NCAA Indoor Championships.
Is Tanner still a middle distance star? Yes, absolutely, but a few of his recent performances haven't been amazing and he doesn't seem to have a lot of momentum right now.
After battling back from some injuries in the early portion of 2020, Utah's Poppy Tank has progressively gained momentum, posting times and top finishes against underrated and competitive fields.
After running 15:45 at the Hayward Premiere meet to finish runner-up to Whittni Orton, Tank came back in the 10k this past weekend to run 32:52 and earn a very convincing win over the Northern Arizona duo of Jeralyn Poe (2nd) and Jessa Hanson (4th) as well as San Francisco's McKenzie Yanek (3rd).
Don't forget, both Poe and Hanson ran well under 33 minutes at this distance back in December, so for Tank to dip under 33 minutes to get a win by a significant margin is very impressive. Right now, this Utah veteran has some of the best momentum in the NCAA and I don't think we recognize that enough.
She was 6th at the Silver State XC Challenge, 5th at the Battle Born XC Challenge, 6th at the PAC-12 XC Championships and then an All-American with a 27th place finish at the NCAA XC Championships. Since transitioning from the grass to the track, she has carried over that string of great results and seems to be building on it.
When it comes to Northern Arizona women, these weren't necessarily bad results for them. Still, after seeing how fast they ran in December, you would think that they'd be more competitive with Tank.
This is one of those headlines that looks really cool and entertaining (and I'm sure it was), but are we really all that surprised that Grijalva ran 13:29 for 5000 meters and took home a semi-comfortable win? Considering that this NAU veteran ran 13:16 for 5000 meters back in December, I actually thought he would run a bit quicker, but of course, this is far from a bad mark.
If anything, Grijalva's recent 5k simply suggests that he's going to pursue the event in the postseason, although it's not like that was ever really in question. And yes, a few of his teammates and national-level competitors across the country have run faster this season, but that's not as important (in my mind) as the 3:39 1500 meter speed that we saw from Grijalva a few weeks ago.
That mix of stamina and speed feels like something that would keep him in the national title conversation, regardless of how slim (or not slim) those chances would be against guys like Teare, Hocker, Kurgat and Kiptoo.
As for Dressel, his 13:37 is only a second off of his personal best from earlier in the season. Grijalva clearly got the better of him, but what Dressel has shown with his most recent 5k performance that few 5k runners have displayed this season is an ability to run that fast on a consistent basis.
If you look at the top of the national leaderboard, a handful of elite-level names can be seen with crazy fast times. However, what very few of those runners have this season is an example where they've run under 13:40 multiple times. It's nice to see someone run that fast once, but to do it twice is encouraging, and I think that bodes well for a veteran like Dressel.
As for a few other collegiates, it's hard to be too surprised by some of these names. New Mexico's Abdirizak Ibrahim was a breakout All-American on the grass, but we didn't really know what his true potential was like. However, seeing him run 13:42 validates suspicions that this guy is the real deal and can be a future problem for his Mountain West rivals.
The Washington contingent of Luke Houser (13:43), Tibebu Proctor (13:46) and Andrew Jordan (13:47) all ran under the 13:50 mark and we're joined by a few other solid talents like Utah State's Luke Beattie (13:44), BYU's Easton Allred (13:45) and Brodey Hasty (13:49). With the exception of Allred, who maybe ran a little faster than I was expecting, it seems fair to say that all of these results were on par with what we've seen from these men in previous races.
There's no doubt that Henes has reached another level this year. The times that we've seen from her have been flat-out incredible and she has translated that success to top finishes at the national meet.
However, to see her go out and simply dominate a super high-level 5k field at Fresno State this past weekend was admittedly jaw-dropping. Running 15:18 is other-worldly and sits behind only Mercy Chelangat by only a single second on the national leaderboard.
That time is beyond impressive and it's certainly faster than what we were expecting from her. However, getting a win by over 10 seconds against a field that consisted of Ella Donaghu, Charlotte Prouse, Taryn O'Neill, Haley Herberg, Katie Izzo, Lauren Gregory and Allie Schadler is incredible. This is a massive win and I would even argue that it's probably the most impressive victory that we've seen from a distance runner this season (at least on the women's side).
And what's crazier is that seven women (including Henes) ran under 15:40 with another seven women running 15:50. This wasn't just Henes going out for a solo effort and not having anyone to compete with. This was a fast race for everyone.
Stanford's Ella Donaghu running 15:29 isn't going to get much attention, but it was an excellent result for her. She's had success in the 1500 meters at the 2019 NCAA Outdoor Championships, but it seems like the 5k distance will likely be the best option for her going forward.
Don't get me wrong, Donaghu could absolutely pursue the 1500 instead of the 5k, but the 1500 is becoming a bit more top-heavy and a bit deeper and the 5k seems like a race with a lot more variability which Donaghu could take advantage of.
If the 5k turns tactical at the NCAA Championships, Donaghu may be one of the best woman in the field when it comes to navigating around her competition.
As for Prouse, she also ran 15:29, a new personal best. She is an outstanding raw talent who has traditionally been viewed as a steeplechaser. There's no question that Prouse will pursue the steeplechase in the postseason, but her 5k time is hard to ignore. It's fun to think about her scratching out of the steeplechase to go all-in for the 5k, but that probably won't happen.
Now, it's important to remember that Prouse has been a two-time runner at the NCAA Championships in the steeplechase and although her time may not be as high up on the current national leaderboard as a few others, she's still probably favored for a higher finish in that event than the 5k...but we'll see.
There is so much more to unpack with everyone else from this race, so let's just go over a few quick highlights before we move on.
Northern Arizona's Taryn O'Neill ran 15:36, validating her cross country fitness and effectively translating that time to the track. Moving fitness from the grass to the track doesn't always transition as easily as some may think, but it's also hard to be surprised that O'Neill ran this fast after how well she ran in the winter.
Washington's Haley Herberg also ran 15:36, which, in my mind, was a very important performance for her. She won the PAC-12 cross country title this past winter, but she's been very up-and-down since then. The inconsistency continues to be a bit worrisome, although running this fast validates her PAC-12 title, showing us that her win wasn't a fluke and that she really is this fast when she's at her best.
We then come to New Mexico's Amelia Mazza-Downie ran 15:37 in what was a massive breakout race for her. Yes, she was respectable this past winter on the grass, but she wasn't running anything that led us to believe that she would be this good. The Lobos continue to produce stars and when you consider that Mazza-Downie has the eligibility of a freshman, it's easy to see her as the future of this program.
Katie Izzo running 15:41 is a step in the right direction, but she just hasn't been herself since the SEC Indoor Championships. The Arkansas ace is clearly still talented and continues to be competitive, but she doesn't have the same spark that we saw from her throughout the winter months. Admittedly, it's a bit odd.
Similarly, Washington's Allie Schadler hasn't been great since taking a fall at the NCAA Indoor Championships in the 3000 meters, although her 26th place finish at the NCAA XC Championships did make up for that a bit. Even so, this spring has been a quiet one for Schadler. Her recent 15:52 effort isn't bad, but I think we were expecting more from someone who ran 15:33 this past winter at the Sound Running Track Meet in December.
Washington State's Colton Johnsen continues to emerge as a problem in pretty much any distance event he toes the line for. The 3:57 miler, who has also ran times of 7:53 and 13:43 this past winter, has now dipped into the steeplechase, emerging as one of the better talents in the NCAA.
Johnsen already ran 8:46 the other week, taking down his Washington rivals in the process. However, he has now tested out his fitness in a deeper and arguably more competitive field. The Washington State runner posted a time of 8:42 this past weekend, taking home the overall win against BYU's top-tier steeplechase contingent.
We saw this rising WSU star post great times and show off incredible range on the indoor oval this past winter. However, seeing him get back-to-back wins in the steeplechase, running as fast as he did, over the competition that he faced, is the most encouraging aspect of this result.
I have never been more high on Johnsen than I am now.
As for the BYU men, they had a solid day with Garrett Marsing (8:44), Matt Owens (8:46), Adam Wood (8:47) and Clayson Shumway (8:50) going 2-3-4-7 in the results. These are solid times and nice finishes, but I'm not sure it really tells us a whole lot.
The Cougars clearly have a ton of depth in the steeplechase and we saw that at the 2019 NCAA Outdoor Championships when they had four men qualify for the finals in the event. However, only one runner (Owens) went on to finish as an All-American in that race, and he settled for 8th place that day.
How these BYU men perform in the postseason will be the bigger aspect to watch. Shumway is also a lot better than his recent 8:50 mark suggests, so I wouldn't worry about that too much. A month from now will be the bigger priority.
Berenice Cleyet-Merle was the obvious favorite to take home the national title in the women's 800 meter at the D2 NCAA Indoor Championships this past March. Sure enough, she did just that, running 2:06 to take home gold.
However, what we didn't expect was to see the Indianapolis standout move up in distance to the 1500 meters, run a big personal best of 4:13 and take down a slew of top-ranked D1 competition. That's what we saw at the North Florida Invitational as Cleyet-Merle took home a big win over Clemson's Laurie Barton and Florida's Gabrielle Wilkinson.
The only catch? Cleyet-Merle was running unattached.
Even so, this was a great run by the Indianapolis standout and a key reminder that the best talents in D2 can occasionally challenge (and defeat) some of the better talents in D1.
Of course, it's important to remember that both Barton and Wilkinson are 800 meter specialists who also moved up in distance this past weekend. Seeing them each run 4:14 is quite the accomplishment, especially since it supports the idea that they can hang on to a faster pace at the half-mile distance...although, if we're being honest, that's something that we already knew, especially for Barton.
Either way, it's a nice display of strength and a great performance for Wilkinson who has been challenged by some of the nation's best distance talents on a consistent basis. She'll be prepared for the postseason in late May and early June.