Admin (Garrett Zatlin)
Oct 1, 20228 min
Paul Short may not have been quite as loaded as Joe Piane, but the Lehigh-hosted invitational still gave us a handful of interesting results to analyze. Below, we offer a few of our takeaways from Friday's east coast battle.
Let's begin...
The 2022 outdoor track season was a massive one for Utah Valley's Everlyn Kemboi. The long distance standout posted times of 16:04 (5k) an 33:12 (10k) last spring and eventually qualified for the outdoor national meet.
All of that came after she finished 13th at the Mountain Regional XC Championships last fall.
Kemboi was undeniably a top talent coming into this season, but we weren't entirely sure how she would translate her track success to the grass.
But after a 3rd place finish at the ultra-loaded Cowboy Jamboree, it was undeniable that Kemboi was one of the best runners in the NCAA. And for those who wanted to see her establish some consistency, the Wolverine ace did exactly that with a massive win at Paul Short.
Taking down a field that featured numerous ranked runners (as well as a few soon-to-be ranked runners) this past Friday was wildly encouraging. Trying to find an argument or a critique against Kemboi at this point in the season is becoming an almost impossible task.
Yes, both of her eye-catching performances have come in September, and the cross country season is a long one, but I don't know how you can look at what she has done so far this season and not think that she's a top-10 talent.
Or at the very least, a top-15 talent.
I suppose you'll figure out our precise thoughts in this week's upcoming rankings update.
Behind Kemboi were numerous standout talents, including Duke newcomer Amina Maatoug. The Dutch middle distance star surprised many of us with her introductory win at the UVA Invite earlier this season. However, that victory came against a field that wasn't nearly as competitive as what Paul Short offered.
But after earning a runner-up finish this past Friday, Maatoug has proven that she is the real deal and not just a middle distance star.
The current Blue Devil sophomore took down Georgetown's Maggie Donahue, Chloe Scrimgeour and Sami Corman as well as North Carolina's Brynn Brown -- that's three (and potentially four) ranked women in our top-50!
We still want to see more from Maatoug, but she was closer to Kemboi (under two seconds) than she was the rest of the pack...and that's a really good sign.
At this point in the season, we can only see positives from her recent performances. Her inexperience in the NCAA still makes her a bit of a wild card. However, any remaining uncertainty that we have about Maatoug is only in regards to her ceiling this fall.
As for the rest of the women in this field, there weren't many surprises, at least not individually. Donahue (3rd) and Corman (5th) continue to be the low-sticks that we knew they could be while Scrimgeour (4th) has validated her breakout season with yet another excellent performance.
I thought Brynn Brown (7th) would be a little bit higher up and closer to the leaders, but this was still a fine result as well. Her win at the IU Coaching Tree Invitational still feels like it holds the greatest weight on her 2022 resume.
After sitting out of the IU Coaching Tree Invitational, the North Carolina duo of Parker Wolfe and Patrick Anderson made their debuts at Lehigh University this past Friday.
And unsurprisingly, they looked like the two best runners in this field.
Wolfe (1st) and Anderson (2nd) showed tons of promise throughout the past year. Wolfe was a cross country All-American last fall while Anderson ran times of 13:37 (5k) and 28:54 (10k) on the outdoor oval. Seeing them go 1-2 in this field, while somewhat expected, is still an encouraging validation of their overall talent.
Defeating the likes of Camren Todd (3rd), a Strintzos-less Villanova squad and D3 superstar Alex Phillip is by no means an easy task. However, maybe more importantly, seeing Wolfe and Anderson emerge as the true low-sticks that we thought they could be is massively important for UNC's goals as a team this fall.
The Tar Heels, in theory, have solid depth, but they'll need a good amount of firepower at the front of their lineup if they are going to reach their full potential this fall.
As for a few of the other individuals in this field, Utah State's Camren Todd should be really encouraged by this result. He was admittedly not-so-great last fall after a phenomenal winter cross country season, so seeing him rally for a bronze medal in this field is a clear step in the right direction.
Villanova's Liam Murphy (4th) and Charlie O'Donovan (5th) were better than I expected them to be, especially as milers who were facing distance-centric talents like Eric Casarez, Alex Phillip and Zach Kreft.
If they keep running like that, then the Wildcats will likely be favored for the BIG East title...which leads me to our next topic.
On paper, no one should be surprised that the North Carolina men won this race. The Tar Heels were ranked higher than the Wildcats coming into this meet and they showed a better combination of depth and firepower on Friday.
Wolfe (1st) and Anderson (2nd) were great, giving this team a massive scoring edge. Meanwhile, John Tatter (18th), Ethan Strand (21st) and Marshall Williamson (25th) closed out the scoring with good-enough scoring support.
That backend scoring trio was solid, although I did think that each of those men had the potential to be at least five spots better in this field. In a larger race, that gap will need to be closed down, but UNC was still plenty strong during Friday's race.
However, despite finishing 2nd overall, the Villanova men may have actually been the biggest winners of this race.
We already mentioned how great Liam Murphy (4th) and Charlie O'Donovan (5th) were, but haven't even highlighted Josh Phillips (9th) and Jack Jennings (10th), two other Wildcats who had outstanding races of their own.
Through four runners, Villanova wasn't just beating North Carolina, they were over 10 points ahead of the Tar Heels.
But then we saw the Wildcats' fifth runner fade all the way to 74th place, the obvious scoring gap that held Villanova back from coming even close to the Chapel Hill-based men.
In the end, North Carolina won convincingly, scoring 64 points to Villanova's 100 points...but there was a catch.
Villanova didn't have Haftu Strintzos toe the line, a guy who we have ranked in our top-10 individual preseason rankings. If he had run on Friday and finished 3rd overall (which may even be a conservative projection), then Villanova scores 35 points!
THIRTY. FIVE.
In that scenario, Villanova wouldn't have just beaten North Carolina, they would have trounced them.
Suddenly, Villanova looks like one of the more exciting teams in the country. They may have one of the most complete top-five lineups in the NCAA and the upside of both Jennings and Murphy makes this a very fun roster in 2022.
Of course, all of this is dependent on Strintzos returning to the grass this fall. We're assuming that he will race in the coming weeks, but we can only theorize until then. Not only that, but Villanova has almost zero margin for error. If anyone in this full top-five has an "off" day, then their team score could collapse barring a breakout performance from a non-scorer.
Sure, the Wildcats may not have a perfect team, but gosh, this was an impressive showing. Their potential scoring potency should not be ignored. And if they can establish greater consistency from last year, then...could Villanova be a top-15 team?
As for Utah State (3rd with 105 points) and Georgetown (4th with 135 points), these were solid results that we somewhat expected. However, both teams had the potential to be better, especially the Hoyas who didn't have Parker Stokes race on Friday.
However, even if Stokes had run, he would have had to win this race in order for Georgetown to edge the Aggies (after you factor in displacement).
Still, I liked the backend depth that we saw from the Georgetown men and I thought Utah State had a promising showing. Having Yonas Mogos in 15th place was a nice way to bridge the gap from Todd (3rd) to Garnica (22nd).
I'm still trying to gauge Utah State, but they're a solid team who would have likely beaten Georgetown even if Stokes had run. Keep an eye out for them.
Much like the IU Coaching Tree Invite, the Tar Heel women ultimately got the edge over the Hoyas during Friday's race. In fact, each team boasted a lineup structure that was almost identical to their last showing.
Brynn Brown (6th) and Kelsey Harrington (8th) matched our expectations fairly well while Taryn Parks (12th) continued to emerge as a sneaky-good middle lineup scorer. And with both Natalie Tyner (17th) and Fatima Alanis (20th) closing out the scoring, the UNC women simply looked like the most complete team in this field.
However, it was actually the Hoya women who clearly held greater firepower. The Georgetown women had Maggie Donahue (3rd), Chloe Scrimgeour (4th) and Sami Corman (5th) put together an outstanding scoring trio which gave their squad a lethal amount of firepower, similar to what we saw a couple of weekends ago.
And with Grace Jensen (10th) continuing to lock-down the fourth scoring spot, Georgetown was easily the best team in this field through four runners.
However, just like the Villanova men, there was a significant scoring drop-off in the Hoyas' final scoring spot. Unlike at the IU Coaching Tree Invite, LSU graduate transfer Katy-Ann McDonald did actually race this past Friday -- it was just wasn't her best showing.
The middle distance superstar and individual cross country national qualifier faded to 45th in this field, a result that was clearly not indicative of her true talent. She is almost certainly closer to a top-20 finisher at her best (in this field) and a safe estimate would likely be top-30.
But even if McDonald had finished 41st overall, then Georgetown would have tied with the Tar Heels and then eventually won on the five-vs-five tie-breaker.
Oh, and let's not forget, Boston University graduate transfer Andrea Claeson didn't even race! If she does return to this lineup, then she could be yet another woman to close the backend gap that is holding Georgetown back from beating a very good UNC team.
As for the rest of this field, I can't lie, I thought we would see a few of these teams be a bit more competitive.
I'm not necessarily surprised to see Providence place 3rd overall in this field. Jane Buckley's 7th place finish was excellent, but with finishes of 37-38-43-51 closing out this lineup, I thought many of these women could have been at least 10 spots better each.
Finishing over 100 points back from Georgetown was admittedly more than I was expecting.
It's almost an identical conversation with Utah State, a team that finished 4th overall, a margin of 15 points behind Providence. However, it was very nice to see BYU transfer Ana Weaver secure a 13th place finish. That's closer to the low-stick performance that we were expecting to see from her this fall.
And how about Utah Valley? After a jaw-dropping 7th place finish at the Cowboy Jamboree, the Wolverines were viewed as potential outside threats to Georgetown or UNC on Friday.
But instead, the Mountain region women faltered.
While Kemboi's win was impressive, the next four scorers on this team went 50-57-61-68 in the overall results...and that wasn't ideal. After all, this was essentially the same varsity group that we saw last weekend!
I'm not entirely sure what happened to the Wolverines, but I have to image that traveling across the country after a high-intensity race from last week may have worn on them. I'm viewing this more as a fluke result, but it will be a bit more challenging to properly gauge this team moving forward.
As for Villanova, they were without Maggie Smith and Sadie Sigfstead yet again, but they still didn't have a great day. I'm trying not to make any major proclamations about this team until they run a full varsity lineup, but their supporting cast certainly has some work to do.