Admin (Garrett Zatlin)
Apr 25, 202115 min
Every single weekend, I sit down to analyze the results from Friday and Saturday. And every single weekend, I try to find new and exciting ways to describe how incredible certain performances were from certain athletes.
But after this weekend, I think I have exhausted all of my high-flying praise and unique descriptors. The results that we saw over the last few days have been simply unbelievable, mainly because the depth around the NCAA distance events has been FAR more extensive than what we thought was ever possible.
Sure, some finishes and times make sense given what athletes have done in the past, but that doesn't make their performances any less impressive.
So with that, let's try to dive into these elite performances and try to properly explain just how incredible some of these results are. Will I do them justice? Maybe not, but I'll sure as hell try.
On paper, this was going to be the race of the weekend. And in reality, it was exactly that.
The Iowa State duo of Edwin Kurgat and Wesley Kiptoo toed the line in Eugene, Oregon to take on the nationally elite duo of Cooper Teare and Cole Hocker in the 5000 meters.
Naturally, this race was going to be fast. Kiptoo was an aggressive pace pusher and the men he was facing were more than capable of posting wildly fast times. Seeing four men between 13:19 and 13:21 is truthfully not much of a surprise, and frankly, it wasn't much of a total shocker that Hocker, Teare, Kurgat and Kiptoo finished that close to each other.
Kurgat and Kiptoo can be argued as 10k runners who were (slightly) dropping down in distance while Teare and Hocker can be argued as mile/3k runners who were (slightly) stepping up in distance. All things considered, this was a perfect storm for fast marks.
In the end, the young 19-year old distance running superstar (dare I say prodigy?) came out on top, swinging off the curve and kicking down a group of the NCAA's most elite talents en route to a mark of 13:19. Teare's lead position over the final moments of the race also gave him an edge over the Cyclones. He ran 13:20 for the runner-up spot, barely holding off Edwin Kurgat who was a half-stride behind in 13:20. Kiptoo ran 13:21 for 4th place.
Honestly, is anyone really surprised by these results? If the Oregon guys are able to hang on to a fast pace with the rest of the field, then it's not a shock that they were going to utilize their middle distance speed to overwhelm their stamina-based opponents.
Teare held his lead position over the final moments while Hocker utilized his speed over the final 150 meters to overtake Teare for the win. Despite the incredible results that we saw from almost everyone in this field, the Iowa State men just didn't have the same kind of finishing speed necessary to earn the victory (although that's not to say that their finishing speed was bad).
So what do these results mean in the grand scheme of things? Does it really make a difference for Iowa State? Kurgat and Kiptoo are almost certainly going for the 10k/5k duo in the postseason and this past weekend only validated that suspicion.
As for Teare and Hocker, does this mean they'll go after the 5k at the NCAA Championships? What about the 1500 meters? Teare doesn't have a mark in that event yet, but that could very obviously change over the next weeks.
And how will the Olympic Trials play a role in how the Oregon men approach the postseason? Is it possible that they skip the the NCAA Championships for the Olympic Trials? Or will the lack of an Olympic standard make the NCAA Championships the priority? I guess we'll find out a month and a half from now.
Alright, let's move on to a few other results in this 5k race.
The Butler men continue to be so darn impressive, although I can't feel terribly surprised by how their trio ran this past weekend. Seeing Makepeace (13:30), Bedard (13:34) and Keane (13:35) all run 13:35 or faster is just beyond impressive, but based on results from the Sound Running Track Meet back in December, the only real surprise of this group was Makepeace.
Bedard is more a 10k specialist who ran 3:39 for 1500 meters the other weekend. Seeing him have success at the 5k distance seems to match expectations. Similarly, Keane had already run 13:41 for 5000 meters back in December. Seeing him improve by seven seconds in a field as fast as this isn't exactly a shock.
But Makepeace? Running 13:30? Well, that truthfully wasn't something that I was expecting. Don't get me wrong, I've been a BIG fan of Makepeace for a while now, and I'm on the record of saying that as recently as this spring. But his mix of times between the 1500 meters, 3000 meters and his past 5k performances didn't suggest that he would run THIS fast.
Did I think he would run under 13:40? Yes, that wouldn't have been a shock. But being a half-stride from cracking the 13:30 barrier? Well, that puts him at a different level and it makes me feel so much more confident about his chances to get to the national meet.
Yes, that's obviously an easy declaration to make after someone runs 13:30, but his respectable middle distance speed, extensive experience and understanding of positioning will certainly benefit him in the postseason.
As for the rest of this field, there were a slew of men who ran under 13:50, but Gonzaga's James Mwaura was the last guy who ran under 13:40, posting a mark of 13:36. This was probably the perfect field for Mwaura as he generally does well with aggressive pacing and races that are fast.
However, race tactics and fast finishes will be the real determinant of how well Mwaura does in the postseason. He's supremely talented, but he'll need to figure out the right approach to the regional meet in an event that is beyond stacked this year.
I remember watching the women's 5000 meters at the Boston University Season Opener in December of 2019, an elite indoor track meet that gives cross country athletes an immediate chance to show off their fitness from the fall.
In that race, we saw a handful of collegiate women run near (or under) the 15:20 barrier. It was an exceptionally fast race which led me to believe that other women would eventually be able to match those kind of results in the near future.
However, we didn't see anyone run faster than 15:36 for 5000 meters this past winter and with a month left to go in this 2021 outdoor track season, no woman has cracked the 15:30 barrier...well, not until this past weekend.
Alabama's Mercy Chelangat just ran a jaw-dropping mark of 15:17 in Fayetteville, Arkansas, validating her cross country national title and easily separating herself from all of the fringe contenders of this year's national 5k field.
The next-fastest woman in this year's 5k is Hannah Steelman, the NC State runner who will most likely pursue the steeplechase in the postseason (and maybe the 5k double as well).
The only uncertainty I have is whether or not Chelangat can win a 5k national title in a tactical setting. She doesn't quite have the leg speed to keep up with a few other women and we saw that at the indoor national meet this past winter at the SEC Indoor Championships.
Now, if Chelangat goes all-out in the 5000 meters and tries to match this kind of time, then there is probably a good chance that she takes home NCAA gold. That said, going all-out from the gun is always going to be a risk.
Outside of Chelangat, we also got to see her teammate, Amaris Tyynismaa, run a massive personal best of 15:33 in the same race. Honestly, I want to say that this young woman is a miler who moved up in distance this past weekend, but that just wouldn't be true. She posted a very strong 3k time on the indoor oval this past winter and was the bronze medalist at the NCAA XC Championships a little over a month ago.
Is there a possibility that she attempts the 1500/5k double in the postseason this year? I suppose it's within the realm of possibility, but would she really try to double? And if she decides to only go after one event, how confident are we that she'll go after the 1500?
On the women's side, it feels like both events are fairly even in terms of title contenders and All-American candidates. In fact, one could argue that Tyynismaa's middle distance speed may benefit her more in a postseason 5k which often turns tactical.
Finally, let's chat about Esther Gitahi. The 5k bronze medalist from the 2019 NCAA Outdoor Championships didn't actually run the 5k this past weekend. Instead, she contested the 1500 meters, an event where she ran a surprisingly fast time of 4:15, convincingly taking down Arkansas' Katie Izzo in the process.
Despite that performance, I can't help but feel like Gitahi is still more of a long distance runner. Her personal best of 15:51 seems like it could definitely drop, but she has yet to contest the 5k (or even the 10k) this spring. In fact, she has only been focusing on the 1500 meters and the 800 meters this spring.
Maybe the Crimson Tide coaching staff is simply refining her speed and having her prepare for the postseason where she will eventually have a 5k mark under her belt. If that's the case, then I can't help but commend the speed development that we've seen from her when it comes to the middle distances.
Honest question: Who is the next Steve Prefontaine? 19-year old Cole Hocker who just ran 13:19 for 5000 meters? Or 18-year old Nico Young who just ran 13:24? Can we say both? Or do we have to speak in absolutes and only choose one?
I don't want to make that decision right now, but Nico Young absolutely put himself in that conversation by running a flat-out incredible time of 13:24 for 5000 meters this past weekend at the Drake Relays. The true freshman from Northern Arizona rode a very fast pace and earned himself an Olympic Trials Qualifying time, breaking the American Junior 5k record in the process.
I'll just be the guy who comes out and says it: I didn't think Nico Young was going to break 13:30 this year and I'm actually surprised that he ran this fast. His 5k from the Sound Running Track Meet back in December was a solid time of 13:44, but it wasn't anything crazy fast or eye-catching. He also didn't make much noise in the 1500 meters earlier this season, running a modest mark of 3:44 for the distance.
Yes, Young was outstanding on the grass, but he wasn't untouchable and if you had told me after that recent 1500 meter performance that he would earn an OTQ mark in the 5000 meters, I'm not sure I would have believed you.
Either way, this is an outstanding mark and one that gives me a bit more comfort in how he'll fare later this season. I would like to see his middle distance speed improve, but that's just me being picky.
As for his teammates, we also saw Abdi Nur and Blaise Ferro toe line. They ran 13:26 and 13:31, respectively. Isn't that insane? The fact that two men just ran that fast and pretty much no one is talking about them? If anyone is talking about them, they're probably only referencing how deep the men's 5k is this year.
I'll admit, those times were a bit faster than I was expecting for Nur and Ferro, but they also weren't unrealistic marks either. Both of those men have run incredibly fast times on the oval before and their cross country performances were indicative that they were in their prime. I'm especially excited to see Blaise Ferro consistently running well. He has struggled with injuries for so long in his career, but has shown just how dangerous he can be when he's healthy.
Finally, I want to chat about Kieran Lumb. The Canadian ace just ran a huge time of 13:24 for 5000 meters in the same race as the Northern Arizona men. That is a huge mark which perfectly complements his recent personal best of 3:38 for 1500 meters.
No, Lumb isn't in the collegiate system yet, but he will be joining the Washington Huskies next year as a graduate transfer. Depending on who opts to use the rest of their collegiate eligibility during the 2021-2022 academic calendar, we could see Lumb emerge as a potential title favorite. In what event(s)? Your guess is as good as mine.
We don't quite know how he'll handle racing on the grass, but regardless of the season, he's going to be a massively impactful name who will offer mind-blowing scoring potency to the men in Seattle, Washington. His momentum has been unreal as of late and if he continues to carry this momentum to new PRs, then he'll likely emerge as one of the most dangerous names in the NCAA next year.
I'll admit, I wasn't exactly blown away by Oregon's Carmela Cardama Baez in her outdoor track debut. She ran 32:57 for 10,000 meters at the Hayward Premiere meet, finishing 3rd overall. For someone who had such a stacked resume and a personal best that was faster than 32:57, I was hoping that she'd take home the win in her season debut and run a faster time.
However, in retrospect, that season debut was likely a rust-buster with the purpose of earning a regional qualifying time and I admittedly came to that realization after seeing her performance from this past weekend. The Oregon veteran took on Boise State's Claire O'Brien in the 5000 meters, eventually outrunning the Bronco standout in the final moments of the race, 15:36 to O'Brien's 15:37.
For Cardama Baez, this is a performance that is much more on par with our expectations. She was great earlier in the year, running 15:31 back in February and owning a personal best of 15:25 from last winter, but her lack of recent performances (outside of her 10k season debut) left me a little unsure of what we would see from her over the course of this season.
However, I'm not sure there is much more to talk about here when it comes to Cardama Baez. The woman who I really want to talk about is Claire O'Brien.
Don't get me wrong, O'Brien has been a very solid talent for a while now, posting top times in a variety of distance events and acting as a respectable scorer in cross country. However, it's very clear that this Boise State runner has seen a significant jump up in her fitness.
Sure, her 10k effort at the Hayward Premiere meet (where she ran 32:43), may not have been a personal best -- it was only four seconds off from her PR -- but the more important development is that she took home the win in her season debut over a very solid and underrated field.
Now, this past weekend, O'Brien just ran a fairly sizable personal best of 13:37 for 5000 meters and truly made a top veteran distance talent like Cardama Baez work for her win. That's not an easy feat to accomplish and it seems fairly obvious that O'Brien has suddenly caught a spark and has built some momentum.
She was great as a youngster, running 9:09 for 3000 meters back in the winter of 2017, but the Boise State runner hasn't exactly matched that kind of performance (even in other events) until now.
I think O'Brien's veteran experience, specifically in championship races, will bode incredibly well for her a month from now. She's had significant success as an underclassmen, so it's not like this level of fitness is entirely new to her, although O'Brien is clearly someone who is currently in the best fitness of her career right now.
The men's 1500 meters at the Drake Relays was so wildly encouraging, both for Ryan Adams (Furman) and Adam Fogg (Drake). Both men ran 3:38 for the event, with Adams barely edging Fogg at the line with a very impressive kick over the final moments of the race.
However, regardless of who won, there are still so many positives to take away from this race.
For Adams, this is now his fifth 1500 meter race since February where he has run under 3:40. That is INSANE consistency and I don't think I feel more confident in any other 1500 runner in the East region to make it to the national meet than I do with Adams.
However, the more important aspect is that he got a major win over a top-tier name in Adam Fogg, someone who I think is sometimes overlooked (even in our own rankings). The Furman veteran ran a very strong time of 3:38 at the Joe Walker Invitational, but I wanted to see him earn a better finish in a field that featured elite-level talents.
He later went to Eastern Kentucky where he ran 3:37 and took down a slew of top-ranked Butler men, but those guys were/are far less established in the 1500 meters compared to the group that we saw at Joe Walker.
Now, Adams has once again taken home a win, this time over Adam Fogg, a 3:57 miler who finished 4th at the NCAA Indoor Championships this past winter. That's a big victory and it really makes me feel confident that Adams can employ a kick and take down one of the most underrated milers in the nation despite the pace being incredibly quick.
As for Fogg, I think this recent performance validates his breakout indoor track season, even if he didn't get the win. He has always been a very solid distance talent, but running a true personal best of 3:59 in the mile prelims at the NCAA Indoor Championships, followed by a massive 3:57 mile PR to earn a 4th place finish in the final was beyond impressive.
Few men at the NCAA Indoor Championships were tactically better than Fogg was. He navigated through a very tricky prelim and showed a ton of poise in the final. However, I was curious if he would be able to translate that success to the outdoor oval.
And sure enough, he did.
Even if he did let up the win at the end, you do have to give credit for how Fogg approached that race. A very minor miscalculation is likely what forced him to settle for 2nd place, but I will happily take the consistency, a very fast time and another instance where he was able to challenge one of the best middle distance runners in the country.
I'm just going to keep this section somewhat short as this might have been the most predictable performance of the weekend. At the Oregon Relays, we saw Colorado superstar Sage Hurta toe the line for the 1500 meters, an event we fully expected her to contest this spring given that she was the national champion in the mile this past winter.
Despite numerous women making noise at the top of the leaderboard this year, running anywhere between 4:11 and 4:13, it was hard to definitively call any of those distance talents national title favorites for this event. That was simply because Sage Hurta hadn't run in the 1500 meters...until this past weekend.
In a loaded field that was stacked high-level pro athletes, Hurta rode the fast pace to the nation's top 1500 meter time, a mark of 4:08. It's the best time in the nation by three seconds and it simply validates the idea that Hurta will once again contest the women's 1500.
And honestly, there's no reason why she shouldn't.
Yes, her personal best of 2:00 from earlier in the season was impressive, but as we all know, the women's 800 meters is just insanely top-heavy this year. It just doesn't make any sense for Hurta to run anything other than the 1500 meters. She's done the steeplechase in the past, but even if she were to contest that event later this season and run the nation's top time, it still makes more sense for her to go after the 1500 meters.
I wish there was more to say about her race, but...I'm not sure there's really anything more we can touch on. Let's move on.
I've always viewed Tulsa's Patrick Dever as a cross country guy who just happened to run track. Sure, he's been decent on the oval (and by no means bad), but most of his acclaim at the collegiate level has come on the grass, finishing 11th at the 2019 NCAA XC Championships and 5th at the NCAA Winter XC Championships a little over a month ago.
His recent 10k personal best of 28:28 was very impressive, but I can't be too shocked to see that result for a guy who has thrived at that exact distance on the dirt and hills.
However, seeing Dever drop down in distance to the 5000 meters (which sounds a bit silly to say) and running as fast as 13:28 is really encouraging. Admittedly, I'm not sure what his speed in tactical settings is like and that may play a role in the postseason. Fast finishes on the track are much more different than fast finishes in cross country.
Even so, the two races that we've seen out of this Tulsa star this spring has led us to believe that Dever's success isn't just reserved for the cross country course. In fact, he was able to comfortably take down a top star in Amon Kemboi who ran 13:35 in the same race.
The Arkansas ace has been a multi-time All-American and his raw fitness has usually been enough to earn him a top-eight finish on the national stage. For someone like Dever, it has to feel good to get a victory over someone as strong as Kemboi.
Speaking of Kemboi, I'm having a hard time trying to gauge his 13:35 effort. This year has been absolutely insane when it comes to the men's distances races. The 1500, the 5k and the 10k are all super top-heavy and super deep. So is it really Kemboi's fault that his 13:35 doesn't inspire much excitement?
In reality, it's not the time that makes it difficult to figure out where Kemboi currently stands in our NCAA hierarchy of distance talents. It's the fact that he was beaten fairly comfortably by Dever. If Kemboi ran 13:35 for 5000 meters and had taken home the win, then I'm probably not as critical as I am now.
It's difficult balance, but at the end of the day, I'll try not to overanalyze this result and move on. As for Kipsang and Kiprop, I'll touch on their results in our "Quick Hits" section of tomorrow's article (Part Two).