TSR Collaboration
Feb 14, 202316 min
Written by Grace McLaughlin, Marissa Kuik & John Cusick
Additional comments & edits by Garrett Zatlin
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Grace: Brianna Robles had a fantastic race this past weekend and I think this performance will certainly be a main talking point in her Division Two legacy.
That being said, I think she is really only scratching the surface of her full potential and she could lower this NCAA record even further prior to finishing her eligibility. She continues to improve year after year and has been incredibly consistent on the track.
Without seeing results from Stephanie Cotter and the insane amount of talent in other events, I do not know if I can confidently say that she is the best women’s distance talent in Division Two right now, but she is definitely the best 5k runner.
After this performance, I am excited for her to race another 3k and possibly break the current Division Two record of 9:11.41 which I think she is fully capable of doing.
John: I think Grace hit the nail on the head when talking about this being only the beginning for the Adams State superstar.
Robles has proven to be an elite talent dating back to the fall of 2021 and she’s brought everything to a completely new level this winter. Her most recent accomplishment is this D2 collegiate record in the 5k. What might be even more impressive is that she broke the record held by Neely Gracey (née Spence) by 14 seconds.
En route to that collegiate record, Robles went through the 3k mark in 9:30, only 10 seconds off of her personal best at that distance. She closed her final lap in 32 seconds and cut 17 seconds off of her previous best of 16:03 (5k) which was set this same weekend last year.
If Robles lays an assault on the rest of the Division Two records while winning multiple national titles, then there’s an argument for her being the best of all time. Of course, this is all hypothetical at this point.
There are still real threats in Lindsay Cunningham and Stephanie Cotter who stand in her way of another national title (although Cotter will likely not contest the 5k). They also stand in the way of a collegiate record as things stand, but we’ll talk more about that later.
The case for Robles being the best distance runner lies in the fact that she is literally the best 5k runner we have ever seen. It’s hard to believe that she won’t be this good when she tackles a mile or 3k at sea level.
Marissa: I think it is hard to talk about Robles and her legacy when she still has so much more time in Division Two.
With COVID-19 giving back eligibility to athletes, Robles still has another indoor track season after this one. That means that she still has another year to improve and grow if she stays in Division Two. That doesn't necessarily mean that she hasn't created a legacy for herself, but I think she is just getting started.
Her rate of improvement is incredible. And when you look back at her first indoor track season where her 5k PR was 16:52, you'll realize that her personal best is now over a minute faster. With another year, it’s worth wondering how much more time she can take off of her 5k personal best.
After her performance this past weekend, it is hard to argue against that Robles is the best distance runner in Division Two. Yes, sometimes she gets overshadowed by her teammate Stephanie Cotter when it comes to cross country and the shorter distance events. And yes, Cunningham beat her in cross country and has some pretty impressive PRs of her own.
But even with all of that information, Robles still ran significantly faster than any woman in Division Two for the indoor 5k and has multiple individual national titles from the indoor and outdoor track seasons.
I think a lot of people forget about (or at least, don't fully appreciate) Robles because of what team she is on. But after this weekend, she proved that she is the best D2 women’s talent in distance running, currently.
Grace: Powell is certainly talented enough to be one of the best in Division Two history, but I do not think he is the best at this point in time.
While he does the indoor 5k record, a 10k national title and a cross country national title to his name, I think he needs to add a few more accolades to his resume to solidify himself as the Division Two G.O.A.T.
Christian Noble (Lee (Tenn.)) has more records and Sydney Gidabuday (Adams State) has more titles at the Division Two level. Powell will need to surpass at least one of them before we can comfortably talk about his standing in Division Two history being at the top. Not only that, Powell is exploring transferring to a Division One program after this spring, so his time to establish himself as the best distance runner in Division Two history could be cut short.
If he stays at Colorado Mines, then I think he is on the path to being the G.O.A.T. If he transfers and he only has the rest of this spring to earn that status, then I think he would need to win national titles in the indoor and outdoor 5k and as well the 10k on the outdoor oval. Breaking another NCAA record in the process would likely cement Powell as the greatest in Division Two history.
John: I’ve been ringing the Dillon Powell bell for a long time and it’s only getting louder at this point.
I think he’s currently the best all-around talent who competes in Division Two. Despite this collegiate record, there are still some things that he needs to accomplish before calling him the best of all-time.
Powell has the two national titles that Grace mentioned, but I would say that he needs to win at least four more titles. In addition, he’d probably need at least another collegiate record to really solidify his mark at this level. If Powell does indeed move away from Colorado Mines in the summer, then that would mean he’d need to sweep the board in March and then again in May.
That’s a lot to ask from someone in such a short amount of time. Sure, it’s feasible for Powell to bring this hypothetical situation to reality, but there are still some uncertainties in terms of his range. He’s run 4:05 (mile) at altitude and has a modest personal best of 8:10 (3k) which was also run at altitude.
The 5k national title is his to lose at this point. However, given the way that the 3k is shaping up, he’ll be hard-pressed for the title in the 3k. The likes of Ryan Riddle, Miguel Coca and teammate Loic Scomparin, to name a few, are all going to make things incredibly tough for Powell.
Marissa: Not everything is about winning, but when it comes to defining the G.O.A.T of Division Two distance racing, you do need to have some national titles under your belt.
Luckily for Powell, he has already added two national titles to his resume in the past calendar year. He won the 10k title during the outdoor track season and won the most recent cross country national title. But he has yet to win any indoor track national titles which I think leaves a hole in his resume at the moment.
With his incredible PRs in nearly every distance event and national titles from the spring and fall, Powell needs a few more gold-medal victories, specifically this winter, to claim the title of best distance talent in Division Two history.
If I'm honest, I thought no one could rival him during the 2021-2022 calendar, but then the weather and his own aggressive pacing took him out in the 2021 NCAA XC Championships. Then, Titus Winders surprised everyone by winning the 3k and 5k titles at the indoor national meet. Then, Powell had to fight a few other distance stalwarts in Awet Beraki and Afewerki Zeru at the NCAA Outdoor Championships where he ultimately won the 10k, but finished 3rd in the 5k two days later.
Now, this Oredigger star has come back even stronger than last year. He’s beating competitors who were previously close to him by significant margins. With Zeru and Tanner Chada yet to toe the line since December, and Powell already beating Beraki once, I do not think anyone can challenge him right now.
Grace: I think we will see at least six women run sub-9:20 in the 3000 meters this year.
Cunningham and O’Connor have already broken 9:20 (3k) this season. Brianna Robles and Stephanie Cotter of Adams State are more than capable of doing so. Natalie Graber of Grand Valley State was also extremely close to doing so this past weekend. And that’s just a few of the women who are in the conversation!
After listing those names, I think upwards of 10 women could be right at the 9:20 mark or under when the season is over.
My 3k national title favorite in a hypothetical tactical race is Klaudia O’Malley and my favorite in an aggressively-paced race is Stephanie Cotter.
With that being said, I am extremely confident that this race will be aggressive at the indoor national meet, solely based on who the competitors are and the results from last year. I'd be surprised if it fell victim to a tactical race.
If Stephanie Cotter is in the race, then I think she will gap the field. If she isn’t, then I think Brianna Robles will shake off her competitors with a hot pace from the gun.
John: I honestly think that this is going to be the best race at the indoor national meet in March and that’s because of what I think will happen in the coming weeks.
There are currently just the three women under that 9:20 barrier for 3000 meters, but I think we will get down to at least eight before everyone toes the line at the national meet.
If you want to finish as an All-American, then you’ll likely have to run under 9:20 at the national meet. The Division Two record is 9:11.41 (3k) and I think that record also falls at some point this indoor season. Who breaks that record is a great question, but there are plenty of women in Division Two who have the talent level to do so.
Stephanie Cotter was slated to race the 3k at Boston University and while that didn’t pan out, she’s more than capable of breaking 9:20. We have every reason to believe that Brianna Robles can do the same after her 5k effort. The same can be said for the likes Eleonora Curtabbi, Florance Uwajeneza, Klaudia O’Malley and Natalie Graber.
I know we are asking who would have the advantage if things became tactical and based on the current national leaderboard, I’d have a hard time picking against Curtabbi. She just ran 4:40 for the mile and looks to be in really good form. If the field plays to her strengths, then I’m not sure anyone can catch her on the final lap if she has a lead.
If things are fast from the start (as most people are assuming), then it’s really hard for me to pick against Cunningham or Robles. Both women have proven they are capable of racing from the front with or without competition around.
It’s also worth mentioning that I think this latter strategy plays into the strengths of most of the women who will contest this event in March, meaning that even if the favorites decide to play it safe, the field may not feel the same.
Marissa: I do not think we will see many more people go under 9:20 for 3000 meters who haven’t already done so.
This past weekend is usually the biggest weekend for fast times as athletes usually go after record-breaking performances. With the remaining meets being mostly championship races, runners are focused more on competing and winning than running fast.
Most of them will also contest multiple events at their conference and national meets, so they will want to conserve their energy for multiple races. With some races having preliminaries, there is a higher probability that the races become more tactical, meaning fast finishes, but not necessarily fast times overall.
There is still the possibility of some fast times being dropped in the next couple of weeks, but I think it is very unlikely that anyone will dip under the 9:20 barrier in the 3k.
The national title favorite in a more tactical 3k race has to be O’Connor. She is already high on the national leaderboard in the 800 meters and the mile, meaning that she has some of the best turnover against the other 3k athletes on the national leaderboard.
The only other person who could challenge her in that scenario is teammate Natalie Graber who has demonstrated some speed with her PR in the mile and her role in Grand Valley State’s incredibly fast DMR where she was the anchor leg.
If the race becomes aggressively paced, then Robles has the best chance of winning. To be fair, I think Robles could win in almost any race situation because she has demonstrated incredible improvement in her turnover after she ran a converted 4:44 mile time last weekend at New Mexico.
Even if Cunningham chooses to take it out aggressively, which is how she likes to race, I think Robles can hang with her based on her aerobic fitness and I think if it comes down to the last two laps, they are both together, then Robles can out-kick Cunningham.
Grace: In terms of the NCAA record being broken, I think it certainly has a chance of being broken by the end of the season, but I do not think it will be broken at the NCAA Indoor Championships. Unless the runners enter the national title race with the intent of breaking it rather than racing, which is unlikely, then it will be a tough record to break with such huge implications on the line.
If the record is broken before the national meet, which is possible but increasingly more likely to see happen, then I think the 3k finals will be more of a sit-and-kick affair.
John: There’s good reason to believe that someone will run faster than 7:50.98 for 5000 meters, but I’m not entirely sure who that would be.
Dillon Powell is the first name that comes to mind as he has never truly contested the event. If he does end up racing it fresh and at sea level, then I think the record could come crashing down.
Another name who I think is capable of breaking it would be Zach Kreft. He just won the GVSU Big Meet with a 7:59 (3k) PR and ran most of that race alone after the pacer stepped off. With some competition, I think you could see him run faster than 7:59. Yes, taking 10 seconds off of his personal best would be quite the run, but we’ve seen crazier things.
Ryan Riddle, Scomparin and Coca are all legitimate threats to run sub-7:50 as well in the right race. But as the season goes on, the odds are dwindling and I’m not sure if there is a place that would offer the right environment for the record to be broken.
Marissa: Like I said before, I think this past weekend is the final time that athletes were aiming for top marks. With conference championship meets and the indoor national meet coming up, most runners will focus on competing, getting through prelims and trying to win their events.
That typically means slower races with fast finishes, especially in the 3k. There is still a chance that the record it could be broken at a conference meet if some runners choose only to race the 3k. But again, athletes will choose to do multiple events, meaning that they will want to conserve their energy throughout each race.
The goal at hand is to expend as little energy as possible while maximizing team points. Though the record got close to being broken this past weekend, I do not think it will be threatened again this season because of the focus shifting toward tactical racing.
Grace: The obvious answer is the Adams State women because they have so much talent on their roster and could win the event if they prioritized it.
Just to clarify, the Grizzlies did run a DMR and are listed at NCAA #6 on the national leaderboard, but Ava O’Connor was the only top runner in that lineup. I want to see Brianna Robles run the first leg, Ava O’Connor run the second leg, Lieke Hoogsteen run the third leg and Stephanie Cotter as anchor.
Will that happen? Probably not, but a girl can dream.
For the men, I think all of the teams in contention have run at least once this season, but I want to see the Grand Valley State squad run another DMR.
The Lakers are sitting at NCAA #13 on the national leaderboard after their 9:48 performance at the GVSU Big Meet this past weekend. And while I do not think that this was a bad performance, I do think that they are capable of running much faster at a larger meet where they aren't the best team in the field.
John: It’s hard not to pick the women from Adams State as a team we are all interested in.
They have the most firepower out of anyone and if they put together their best team, then I think the collegiate record would fall by quite a bit. But for the sake of not being redundant, I think the West Texas A&M women would be an interesting relay.
With Elenora Curtabbi and Florance Uwajeneza, I think they could put up a fight against most of the DMR teams on the women’s side. The biggest issue would be finding a reputable 800 meter runner to add to the lineup which they don’t currently have.
I'm not sure how that lineup would look, but I'd throw Uwajenzea on the 1200 meter leg, Betty Bajika or Raquel Chavez on the 800 meter leg and let Curtabbi work her magic on the anchor leg.
Would they win a national title in the relay? Probably not, but I feel confident that a combination of those four women would end up with a top-eight finish in the DMR.
On the men’s side of things, I am eagerly awaiting a top lineup from Colorado Mines. They ran a relay at their home meet the first weekend of February, but I’d argue that they didn’t have a single top athlete in that lineup.
They currently sit at NCAA #16 on the national leaderboard, but if you put Luke Julian on the anchor leg, then they run at least five seconds faster and we’re looking at a top-10 DMR squad.
Marissa: I think I have to go with Adams State for both of these.
I agree with Grace that on the women’s side, Adams still has so much more potential with their DMR team, so it would be fun to see Robles race the first leg, O’Connor contest the 800 meter leg and then Cotter on the fourth leg.
This lineup would be the only other squad that could challenge Grand Valley State. However, it is not very likely that the Grizzlies will go this route for the indoor national meet, especially when they already have enough talent to put together a team that could still finish in the top-five without a handful of top stars.
The Adams State men have yet to race a DMR, but they have the most talent to put together the best team this year. Coca has the best mile time in Division Two so far (by conversion), making him the perfect option for the fourth leg. Then, David Cardenas is right there in the top-five over 800 meters. And they also have Jonah Vigil who has the NCAA #3 mark on the national leaderboard in the 400 meters.
All you need is a fast-enough runner for the first leg. And with so many Grizzlies running close to the 4:00 barrier in the mile, including Mikah Paiz, Clement Dugiou and Cameron Allan, Adams State should be able to put together an incredible team which should easily take the NCAA #1 spot on the national leaderboard.
Grace: I was lucky enough to see Kira MacGill of Colorado Mesa race the 5000 meters in person at the Husky Classic and I think this was a breakthrough performance for her. Her time of 16:23 (5k) currently sits at NCAA #5 on the national leaderboard.
She’s been on our radar for some time now and has steadily made her way into our rankings after being a consistent “Just Missed” name. But this performance solidified her as someone who will keep improving.
This was a 20-second PR for MacGill who looked strong and relaxed the entire time. While she fell short of catching the leader, she finished as the runner-up in her section.
On the men’s side, Cole Nash of Alaska Anchorage also ran a phenomenal 5000 meter time at the Husky Classic. He ran a new 5k PR of 13:48 and placed 7th in a solid field. His time is currently sitting at NCAA #4 on the national leaderboard which is extremely impressive considering that he did not even qualify for the indoor national meet last year.
For Nash, this was an impressive display of his current momentum and ability to put himself in the mix in competitive races.
John: On the women’s side, I will go with Katherine Marsh of Adelphi.
She’s likely a name that no one has heard of before. Before this past weekend, Marsh had never run faster than 2:11 for 800 meters, making her recent time of 2:08.57 a huge breakthrough. She is currently sitting at NCAA #3 on the national leaderboard and will qualify for her first national meet.
This could be the beginning of Marsh’s breakout season and if she races well, then she could be taking her newfound confidence into the outdoor track season as well. We’ll need to see how she performs in a championship setting before making any bold predictions, but Marsh has made a name for herself.
For the men, I will go with Hamza Chahid of Wingate.
The Morocco native was part of Wingate’s DMR team that raced to a 3rd place finish and a time of 9:40 this past weekend in Boston. Chahid split 4:01 on the final leg of the relay and was the fastest overall mile split in the race.
The next day, Chahid doubled back in the mile, ran 4:01.80 and is currently sitting at NCAA #10 in the event. And this is all fresh off of a stellar debut of 8:01 (3k) from two weekends ago. If Chahid doesn’t contest the 5k in the coming weeks, then we’re talking about an athlete who will enter the indoor national meet as a dark-horse candidate in his declared events.
Marissa: I know we have talked plenty about Vanessa Aniteye, but I think her 800 meter race this weekend flew under the radar.
She once again improved her time and ran basically a second faster to reclaim the NCAA #1 spot on the national leaderboard, moving ahead of Chapko. I cannot get over how incredible it is that she has improved every time she has raced the half-mile this season. And she has raced every weekend! With all the excitement in the 3k and 5k, I think Aniteye’s time of 2:07 in the 800 meters definitely deserves some attention.
On the men’s side, I think I will stay within the half-mile distance and go with Tanner Maier. Maier had one of his best seasons for Minnesota State last year, but has struggled so far this winter to replicate that form.
But after this weekend, Maier ran 1:49 for 800 meters at the Minnesota State Massive Meet #2, shooting him up to NCAA #8 on the national leaderboard and right back into the conversation for the national title.