Admin (Garrett Zatlin)
Mar 25, 202311 min
Yesterday, I decided to do a Colin Cowherd-style article analyzing which of my predictions were right and which were ones were not-so-correct for the first day of the Raleigh Relays. However, in my eyes, today's piece of analysis deserves something a bit more straightforward, so I'm going to bring back our classic, headline-based "First Thoughts" article.
So without further ado, let's get into it...
I like to think that we have been very complimentary of Virginia standout Margot Appleton this year. After seeing Mia Barnett leave the Cavaliers for the UCLA Bruins back in December, it almost felt like Appleton took on the responsibility of being UVA's newest marquee star.
The still-rising distance runner had a strong cross country season, but was even better on the indoor oval, running times of 4:33 (mile) and 9:00 (3k), the latter mark being a conversion. And after barely sneaking into the national meet mile field, Appleton stunned the nation with a fantastic 4th place All-American finish in a time of 4:35 -- a result that converts to something noteably faster than her 4:33 mile PR.
Appleton was flat-out awesome this past winter. And because of that, most of us at The Stride Report believed that she had a legitimate shot at winning the women's 1500 meters at the Raleigh Relays on Friday night.
Did we think she was favored? No, not necessarily, but could you blame us after seeing women like Sam Bush, Amaris Tyynismaa, Maia Ramsden and Shannon Flockhart headlining this field?
Admittedly, those latter two women didn't actually toe the line, but Appleton was by no means a guarantee to win this race. And if you had told us that she would break the 4:10 barrier for 1500 meters, and even run 4:08, I'm truthfully not sure that I would have believed you.
But that's what makes this sport so much fun.
There was never any question that Appleton was talented. We knew that she had great range, we saw her build excellent consistency during the winter months and we saw her thrive in a championship race.
The only thing that was truly missing from her resume was a personal best that took her from "great" to "All-American favorite".
And with a 4:08.96 mark over 1500 meters, which puts her among the top-20 all-time at the Division One level for that event, Appleton's resume suddenly looked extremely scary to go up against -- and this is a Virginia Tech alum saying this about a Virginia runner!
But Appleton isn't the only one who smashed expectations. In fact, the two women who finished behind her both had massive breakout races. And in fairness to our fellow TSR writer Maura Beattie, she had said multiple times (both on the site and in our Slack group), that these two distance talents were due for a big race.
Those two women were Cincinnati's Rylee Penn and Rider's Teagan Schein-Becker, a mid-major duo that posted a pair of 4:10 marks over 1500 meters to finish 2nd and 3rd overall, respectively.
Few women in the NCAA have made the jump up in fitness that Rylee Penn has this year. Coming into the 2023 indoor track season, the rising Bearcat star held a mile PR that was no faster than 5:04! But by the end of her winter campaign, Penn had earned a jaw-dropping personal best of 4:34 in the mile. That's a level of improvement that is so absurdly massive that you almost wonder if it's real.
But the Cincy ace proved on Friday night that she is, in fact, the real deal. Running 4:10 for 1500 meters is massive validation of her talent which seems to have a limitless ceiling right now. And more importantly, we just saw that she can thrive in highly competitive fields, taking down Schein-Becker, Amaris Tyynismaa and Esther Seeland in the process.
Oh, and for perspective, Penn's prior 1500 meter PR was 4:33...so, yeah, she just ran a 23-second personal best in an event that isn't even a full mile long. That's unheard of.
And then there's Teagan Schein-Becker, a very promising and underrated middle distance talent who had shown a few more flashes of brilliance than Rylee Penn had over the last few years.
The Rider middle distance talent was a solid runner last year. Maybe not great, but she was plenty competitive. Schein-Becker had run 4:18 for 1500 meters, made it to the finals in that event at the East Regional Championships and had run 4:42 in the mile during the winter of 2022.
But then the New Jersey-based athlete broke out in a big way this year, running a 4:34 mile PR on the indoor oval before capping her winter campaign with a monumental 2:02 personal best over 800 meters to win the indoor IC4A title in that event.
Momentum was absolutely going in Schein-Becker's favor and it wasn't going to be a surprise if she ended up running a new 1500 meter PR on Friday night. Of course, much like Penn, I don't think anyone saw this Rider ace posting a 4:10 mile PR.
Both Penn and Schein-Becker have now shown on multiple occasions that they can be nationally competitive. Running this fast and taking down the names that they did changes the way that we think about these women and their status within the competitive space of the NCAA.
Now, the only questions we have for this duo are, will they be able to consistently produce these kinds of results throughout the rest of this spring season? How much better can they get from here? What does this mean for their postseason hopes?
I don't have any good answers to those questions, but it's hard to not love the development and trend of progress that we've seen from these women as of late.
As for Amaris Tyynismaa (4th) and Esther Seeland (5th), each of whom ran 4:12 marks in the same race, there isn't too much to say here. Tyynismaa was plenty capable of running a time like this while Seeland probably ran faster than we were expecting...but you could say that about pretty much everyone in this field.
Also, speaking of athletes with recent momentum who had a big performance, Providence's Kimberly May is on fire. The Friar ace is only now beginning to realize her what her upside is after running personal bests of 4:37 (mile), 2:42 (1k) and now 4:13 (1500), results that all came in her last three races.
Coming into Friday's steeplechase race, it felt pretty clear that Duke's Emily Cole was the favorite to take home the win. With a personal best of 9:48 in the event, an outdoor national meet appearance from last year and clear improvement this past winter, the Blue Devil ace had everything going in her favor.
And yet, at the same time, most of us knew that Cole wasn't unbeatable. Anna Sophia Keller from Notre Dame was viewed as the top threat to her ACC counterpart while a handful of other women had flirted under or around the 10:00 barrier in the steeplechase.
However, also listed in the entries was Butler's Angelina Ellis, a quietly-ascending distance talent who may have had the best indoor track season of any woman entered in that steeplechase field.
The Bulldog ace ran a 4:37 mile PR to finish 3rd at the Meyo Invitational, later ran a strong 9:04 (3k) personal best at Boston University and eventually went on to secure two gold medals in 3k and the DMR at the BIG East Indoor Championships.
For anyone who had evaluated Ellis' resume going into Friday, it was clear that she was catching fire as she entered the spring months. And when you consider that her best event, historically, was the steeplechase (previously holding a 10:00 PR), it made sense to think that she could run a PR at the Raleigh Relays.
That's why I predicted her to finish 3rd in a time of 9:58.
But then Ellis capitalized on her opportunity in a major way, running a significant 9:53 steeplechase PR. The Butler distance talent not only defeated Emily Cole (who also ran 9:53), but she also ran a meet record and secured the overall win.
Much like most of the women who we highlighted in the 1500 meters, momentum is a very real thing in distance running -- and Ellis has that right now. The Bulldog runner is on a true hot streak right now and if a 9:53 steeple PR resulting in a win over a national qualifier isn't continuous evidence of her extended peak from the winter months, then I don't know what is.
As for Cole, she may not have won, but this was a very nice rust-buster in her main event. She nearly got the victory, went under the previous meet record, ran almost exactly 30 seconds faster than she did during her 2022 season debut in this event and validated her improvements from the indoor oval this past winter.
Cole is primed to run faster than her 9:48 steeple PR from last spring...but exactly how much faster? It seems fair to suggest that she can run under 9:40, but how far under that mark can she go in order to enter the All-American conversation?
Because as we saw last year, the women's steeplechase has never been faster.
As for Aziza Chigatayeva, she ran 9:58 to round out the top-three. The Binghamton veteran has always been a solid and reliable distance talent, specifically in the steeplechase, so it was nice to see her earn a PR this early in the season. She's also someone who is due for a big string of personal bests, but it's tough to know how high her ceiling will go.
When I began writing this "First Thoughts" article, I was fairly convinced that the women's steeplechase was going to be the shortest and least eventful race I had to write about. But truthfully, when look back at the women's 5k results from the Raleigh Relays, I can't help but shrug my shoulders and say, "Yeah, that seems about right."
In my predictions, I had Olivia Markezich winning this race in a time of 15:38 while I had Sam Bush running 15:41 for runner-up honors. And while both of those women ran a bit faster, I don't think anyone is exactly stunned by these results.
Historically, Olivia Markezich is a top-tier steeplechaser and she will almost definitely pursue that event more seriously as the spring months unfold. But it's also clear that if Markezich was going to have a secondary event on the outdoor oval, then it was going to be the 5000 meters.
Markezich was a true star on the grass this past fall and was electric over 3000 meters during the winter months. The 5k was a natural fit for this Notre Dame ace, even if she had never officially contested that event at the collegiate level before Friday night.
Sure enough, Markezich ran 15:33 (5k) en route to a convincing win over NC State standout Sam Bush. There's really not much more to take away from this race if you're Markezich. While she could pursue the 5k on the national stage, it would likely be on the double assuming that she prioritizes the steeplechase.
As for Sam Bush, a 15:39 (5k) result is really solid, but this is someone who ran 15:35 in this event last spring and has recently shown a favoritism towards the longer distance events over the past year (despite remaining a versatile weapon).
Let's talk about everyone else...
Ohio State's Addie Engel ran a strong race to finish 3rd overall in a time of 15:44. That, however, is a sightly surprising result depending on who you ask.
Yes, Engel was already a star on the grass this past fall, earning top-10 All-American honors at the NCAA XC Championships. However, on the indoor oval this past winter, the Ohio State ace didn't run any faster than 16:10 (5k) in her lone attempt at that event and 9:15 (3k).
That's why it was surprising to see her run such a significantly faster time, especially since her prior 5k PR sat at 15:59 which she ran at this same exact same meet in 2022.
As for Katie Thronson a 4th place finish (among collegiates) is where I predicted her to finish and a time of 15:44 (5k) is only two seconds faster than my estimated time for her...so, yeah, super unsurprising.
Let's now chat about Phoebe Anderson, a Columbia distance talent who just ran 15:44 for 5000 meters, a performance that feels somewhat like a "welcome to the NCAA" moment.
Yes, it's true, Anderson has been competitive in seasons prior to this. She's actually a two-time individual national qualifier on the grass. But this Columbia ace didn't race on the track this past winter and her best marks coming into this season were previously 16:10 (5k) and 9:17 (3k). Sure, those times aren't bad, but they're certainly not nationally competitive in the same way that Anderson was on the grass.
A 15:44 (5k) mark changes the way that we'll talk about Anderson moving forward. However, at the same time, we now have no idea what to expect from someone who is clearly naturally talented, but has given us very few data points to analyze.
We'll wrap up this section with Faith DeMars, a Penn State runner who continues to quietly stack great result after great result.
DeMars has had an impact on the Nittany Lion women since she was a freshman and has now evolved into someone who is one of the top names in the BIG 10. The Penn State ace ran 9:00 for 3000 meters on the indoor oval this past winter and then ended her season with a silver and gold medal in the 3k and the 5k, respectively, at the BIG 10 Indoor Championships.
Now, with a 15:44 (5k) mark, DeMars is building a competitive resume. She seems to be someone who could be outstanding over 10,000 meters, but she also showed a lot of promise in the steeplechase last spring.
The Happy Valley distance standout is still growing and developing, but her 15:44 (5k) result from Friday night felt like a inside look at how dangerous she could be this spring now that she has had some time to refine her talent.
Going into the men's 10k race at the Raleigh Relays, most of our TSR writers admitted that this year's field didn't seem to be quite as top-heavy as it was in 2022. And based on the final times of the top-10 men, that seemed to be true.
Even so, we were still treated to a fantastic matchup which featured recent breakout star Kirami Yego, a distance talent from South Alabama, and Harvard ace Graham Blanks. And on paper, both men were built to thrive in an event like the 10k.
In theory, Blanks was the favorite in this race. He had run 7:44 (3k) and 13:18 (5k) on the indoor oval this past winter and has historically been elite on the grass when the distance moves up to 10,000 meters.
However, Yego seemed to be one those classic distance talents who has an unreal amount of raw talent that is best utilized when the events get longer. He was an All-American on the grass in the fall, ran 13:38 for 5000 meters this past winter and just headlined a loaded 10k field at the Raleigh Relays.
In the end, it was Yego's raw fitness and clear favoritism towards the 10k distance that gave him the edge over Blanks who was contesting his first 10k race on the track in his collegiate career (although this was Yego's second effort).
Admittedly, an early-season 10k race in March where two star-caliber runners were separated by less than two seconds doesn't necessarily change the NCAA landscape in any major way. It does, however, show us that both of these men are probably going to be on the national stage in this event.
For Yego, the question will be if he can refine his fitness, turnover and tactics to the point where he can thrive in any race scenario -- not just an all-out assault on his personal bests. For Blanks, I can't help but wonder if he is someone whose ceiling continues to rise as he moves up in distance, or if his ideal event really is the 5k.
Either way, running times of 28:22 and 28:24 is still very encouraging.
Charlotte's Nick Scudder (28:28) and Villanova's Haftu Strintzos (28:36) ran very well, but their times are super unsurprising. Scudder ran 28:32 for 10,000 meters at this exact same meet last year and has only improved since then, putting together a fantastic cross country season and running 13:33 (5k) this past winter. Strintzos, meanwhile, has run sub-29 at this distance seven different times throughout his career (including Friday) and ran 28:34 (10k) last year.
For as good as Scudder and Strintzos were in Raleigh, their performances truthfully don't change our opinions of them.
Jack Jennings (Villanova), Kevin Berry (Notre Dame) and Josh Phillips (Villanova) all crossed the line at a time of 28:41 (10k). For Berry, this is a somewhat sizable personal best, but there are past results on his resume which suggested that this was in the cards for him.
However, the Villanova men are a bit of a different story.
People seem to overlook Jack Jennings given the success of his fellow sophomore teammate, Liam Murphy, a guy who was in the same recruiting class. But Jennings has offered tremendous value for the Wildcats in his own right, although none more than he just showed in his 10k debut.
Phillips, meanwhile, is a true veteran who, at his best, can be a plenty dangerous. He also ran 28:41 in his 10k debut. He doesn't appear to have any cross country eligibility remaining, but this may be the event that gives him the best chance to advance out of the East region.