First Thoughts: ACC Title Upsets, Valby's Absence & Washington Adds More Insane Mile Depth

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You could have already made the argument that prior to this weekend, the Washington men boasted the greatest group of collegiate milers ever assembled. They did, after all, have eight men (seven of which were attached) run under four minutes in the event earlier this season with numerous runners going well under 3:56.

But what we saw in Boston on Sunday afternoon was a level of elite depth (and firepower) that I didn't think one singular roster could produce.

In a field full of top-level pro milers, the Washington men crowded the start line and attacked a fast mile effort with not-so-reckless abandon. And when the dust settled, it was Kieran Lumb coming away as the top collegiate with an insane mile time of 3:52, a one-second PR.

But Lumb has been excellent all season long. He ran 3:53 (mile) earlier this winter and in another loaded field such as this, it isn't entirely a shock to see that he dipped into the 3:52 range for this distance.

Of course, it was more than just Lumb who made this race so historic. We also saw Luke Houser drop an INCREDIBLE 3:52 mile PR of his own, a three-second PR after running 3:55 earlier in the season.

Houser has been a nationally competitive name for the past year. He was an All-American in the 1500 meters last spring and is no stranger to running fast times. But the Washington standout has had the identity of a fringe national qualifier this winter. And if he was going to advance to the national meet, then he probably wasn't going to be favored for an All-American honor, individually.

That, of course, was before he ran 3:52.

A time like that is the breakout race that I thought Houser would have in the 3000 meters. In terms of his intangibles and the overly simplified "eye test," it felt like he could be just as good as Fay, Lumb, Waskom and Green.

And now, with a time like that, he may very well be in that same tier.

But if you thought Houser's 3:52 mile was impressive, then I would direct you to look at Aidan Ryan, the Williams graduate transfer who was a superstar at the D3 level.
 

The former Eph runner has been very solid this season, running 3:59 (mile), 7:53 (3k) and 13:49 (5k). However, there was NOTHING on his resume to suggest that he was going to run 3:53 in the mile.

That's a six-second seasonal best (and three-second personal best) for a guy who was already a sub-four minute miler. That's somewhat rare. And now, Ryan is going into the indoor national meet as a top seed who has left us unsure on how to analyze him.

One of the teammates behind Ryan was another graduate transfer, Aaron Ahl.

The former Simon Fraser star was a bit more established than Ryan coming into this season, but the two men were largely no different in terms of skillset and caliber. And while Ryan did run 3:57 in the mile earlier this season, the idea that he would put himself in the national qualifying conversation this weekend seemed unlikely.

But then the Canadian distance standout dropped a 3:55.60 mile PR on Sunday, forcing us to reevaluate if he could sneak into the national meet.

Based on the current national leaderboard -- and assuming that no additional results other than the Boston Last Chance meet will change the order -- we are expecting Ahl to be listed at NCAA #17. This means that Ahl will just need one scratch in order to get into the national meet, something that he will almost definitely get.

In fact, he'll probably get a scratch from one of his teammates!

Yes, there were a few other Huskies in this field, although certain men ran better than others. Nathan Green's 3:53 mile time wasn't a personal best, but it was still massive validation of his insane 3:52 PR from back in January.

I now feel far more comfortable about his capabilities as we go into the month of March.

Meanwhile, Waskom (3:56) and Fay (3:58) just didn't have their best days. And while those results are far from ideal, we do have to acknowledge that this was a time-trial environment. We almost certainly won't see that style of racing on the national stage (especially since it's at altitude).

Arguably the most important headline of the weekend wasn't necessarily about a certain finish or a specific time. Instead, it was about someone who didn't run at all.

Florida's Parker Valby is a true NCAA superstar. She is the only one who has come anywhere close to Katelyn Tuohy's tier over the last year (but even then, she's still a ways off). After running 8:49 for 3000 meters in Boston the other weekend, we figured that Valby would also go after a fast 5k effort on Friday at the SEC Indoor Championships.

That, however, didn't happen. And because she scratched the 5k, that means that she wouldn't be able to toe the line for the 3k, either.

This is a perplexing development. It's one thing if Valby just wanted to go all-in for the 3000 meters, but not racing at all in her final meet before the NCAA Indoor Championships is admittedly concerning.

I reached out to a handful of sources to see if they had heard anything. And while I did get a handful of responses, none of their answers were consistent with one another and what they had heard didn't extend past simple rumors.

I'm not going to speculate. For a scenario like this and for someone this high-profile, that doesn't seem appropriate. But with the NCAA Indoor Championships just two weeks away, there is now a massive question mark lingering over the women's 3k field.

This was not necessarily a super exciting races when it comes to tactics, lead changes, positioning, surges, etc. That, however, doesn't mean that it wasn't a super impressive effort for a handful of women.

Arkansas veteran Lauren Gregory went straight to the front of the women's mile field at the SEC Indoor Championships and led for the entire way. But directly behind her for all of the race was rising South Carolina star, Silan Ayyildiz.

Alabama's Flomena Asekol was also with that top group for most of this race until the last lap. But even when Gregory tried to pull away, Ayyildiz gave her no breathing room. In the end, Gregory's 4:31 mile mark gave her a somewhat narrow win over her new conference rival.

Gregory's win and final time shouldn't be surprising. The same could be said for Ayyildiz's new PR and runner-up finish. In a perfect scenario, this is what we expected.

But we also need to acknowledge that despite Gregory doubling back to run (and win) the 3000 meters, her time of 9:09 will not allow her to qualify for the national meet in that event. As a result, we are left with a heavy amount of certainty that the Razorback ace will be running the mile/DMR double two weeks from now...right?

As for Ayyildiz, this was a highly promising race. Not just because she ran super fast, but because of how poised she looked when facing off with one of the NCAA's absolute best distance talents. She never wavered behind Gregory's hot pace and had a realistic shot at the upset during that last lap.

No, Ayyildiz isn't a national title favorite, but she's looking increasingly more like an All-American lock despite her collegiate inexperience.

The men's ACC mile was an interesting race in terms of how it played out.

Virginia's Nathan Mountain went straight to the front, almost acting as bait for the rest of the field to follow. It almost seemed like a pre-planned tactic given that there were four other Cavalier runners in this mile final (for five total).

However, the chase pack (which consisted of Thomas Vanoppen, Jesse Hunt and Wes Porter) didn't truly start to close the gap until the final 400 meters. And throughout that entire time, it was Vanoppen doing the work to catch Mountain.

But while the Wake Forest mile ace was chasing Mountain, in-state rival Jesse Hunt was quietly sitting behind him. And on the final lap, as Vanoppen was in the lead, Hunt overtook him on the last curve. At that point, the race was over. Hunt had won (in 3:58) and Vanoppen was able to salvage a runner-up finish (in 3:59).

The Demon Deacon star has built a reputation as being a tactical maestro over the mile and 1500 meter distances. In a race like this, he seemed like the clear-cut choice for gold. But this wasn't one of Vanoppen's smarter races. He was the one doing all of the work to catch Mountain, but the pace wasn't so fast that it was going to shake off any of the top names.

And by the final curve, it was clear that he was gassed and that Hunt was fresher.

In fairness to Vanoppen, it's easy for me to sit here and say, "Well he should have been more conservative." But then who would have gone after Mountain? Did the Belgium miler really want to risk leaving the rest of the field to cover the gap in the final moments of the race?

It wasn't as straight-forward of a scenario as some may realize, but Hunt seemed to recognize the situation and took full advantage of it. And frankly, with two or three laps to go, you could feel the momentum shifting in favor of the Aussie Tar Heel miler.

The men's 3000 meter race at the ACC Indoor Championships this past Saturday was viewed by us at The Stride Report as a Wake Forest vs North Carolina matchup.

But in reality, the Tar Heels were running this show.

In the latter stages of the race, it became apparent that the winner of the men's 3k was going to be either Parker Wolfe or Ethan Strand -- likely the former. And in the final lap, no one would have blamed you if you had turned off your TV or closed your laptop. At that point, it seemed like Wolfe probably had the win secured.

But with roughly 250 meters to go, Strand unleashed an other-worldly kick. In a sudden and unexpected burst of turnover, the Alabama native instantly closed the gap between him and Wolfe. And by the final curve, Strand had overtaken his teammate, eventually crossing the line in a time of 7:46 (3k).

Wolfe would finish runner-up in 7:48.

With this result, it's time to start viewing Strand as one of the better overall distance talents in the NCAA. He's run 3:55 in the mile, split 3:53 on the anchor leg of North Carolina's winning DMR at the Alex Wilson Invite and he just dropped a huge 3k victory over star teammate Parker Wolfe with a 7:46 personal best.

And when you look at his resume throughout this season, Strand hasn't had a poor race.

However, maybe the most important aspect of Strand's recent performances is how he has looked. Few men in the NCAA have the same control over their fitness that he does. His ability to instantly change gears is frighteningly impressive.

I don't know if he necessarily has the best kick in the NCAA right now (which he has shown on multiple occasions this winter), but he probably has the best kick that I've seen this season.

As for Wolfe, there's not a whole lot to talk about here. The 5k was going to be his focus at the indoor national meet. His latest 3:56 (mile) and 7:48 (3k) efforts are strong, but he's better when the distance gets longer.

However, Wolfe didn't look great at all on Thursday night (in what was a very weird 5k scenario) and he was probably favored to win the 3k. We're not entirely sure what to think about him going into the national meet.

UMass Lowell's Isabella Giesing feels like a master when it comes to clutch performances.

Last year, she took advantage of Boston University's Last Chance meet and was able to barely sneak into the indoor national meet for the women's 800 meters. And in 2023, we saw the exact same scenario unfold.

However, instead of running 2:04, Gieising went above and beyond. On Sunday, she dropped a massive time of 2:02.35 over 800 meters. That was an overall personal best by over a second and it also leaves us wondering, "What on Earth should we expect from her now?"

Gieising has proven on multiple occasions that she can be nationally competitive. In retrospect, it probably makes sense that she was due for a breakout race, although nothing that she had posted this season suggested that she was going to run 2:02 over 800 meters.

But now the RiverHawk middle distance ace has a resume that is sneaky-good. She owns a 2:02 personal best over the half-mile distance, just took down a star-caliber runner in Carley Thomas and enters next week's indoor national meet with prior national meet experience.

Does she have moments of inconsistencies? Yes.

Is this time undeniably different (and stronger) relative to her past performances? Also yes.

We don't fully know what kind of role Gieising will have on the national stage. But she will likely be a massive wild card depending on how the race actually plays out.

As for Carley Thomas, it's hard to be upset with a huge time of 2:02.78 for 800 meters. Sure, she has run (slightly) faster this season, but consistency is still a very nice thing to have when you are going into the NCAA Indoor Championships.

This Washington star continues to be a focal point in the women's half-mile distance. And on paper, she has all of the small things that could allow her to contend for a national title. However, if she wants to contend for NCAA gold, she'll likely need a seasonal PR closer to that of 2:01 of even 2:00.

As for fellow teammate Marlena Preigh, the middle distance runner continues to slowly and steadily get better. Her mark of 2:03.20 (800) is yet another step in the right direction as she continues to improve her PR essentially every time she toes the line for this distance.

When you factor in these 800 meter results, we should expect Preigh to sit at NCAA #17. And if she maintains that spot as entries are submitted, then all she'll need is just one woman to scratch from the event in order for her to qualify for the NCAA Indoor Championships as an individual.

It's sometimes hard to fully appreciate all-time greatness in the moment. And when that greatness is unfolding in one of the more underappreciated divisions of the NCAA, it becomes that much harder for some people to understand just how impactful certain performances are.

But what Ryan Wilson is doing this winter is beyond incredible. He's establishing himself as an all-time great within a single season. Sure, he was a national champion last winter and spring, but what he has done over the last few months is legitimately legendary (a word that I think is often overused).

On Sunday, against a field full of competitive D1 opponents, the MIT ace dropped a massive 800 meter time of 1:46.61 to secure the win and demolish the previous D3 record of 1:47.43. Wilson can now pair that record with his 3:55.29 mile D3 record that he ran on this same track earlier this season.

The seasonal resume that Wilson has built this winter is flat-out incredible. His marks would easily make him a top-25 name in our Division One rankings. In fact, he would almost certainly be a top-20 talent and maybe even a contender for the top-15.

Wilson is unlike anything that the D3 scene has ever seen before. And with enough longevity, his name could eventually be thrown around in the D3 middle/long distance G.O.A.T. conversation. Maybe not yet, but possibly soon...

As for the rest of this field...gosh, talk about clutch.

Washington's Cass Elliott has been attacking the 800 meter distance all season long. He's been so consistent and so explosive in this event. However, it looked like he was playing a dangerous game in terms of national qualification.

Before these results are entered, he sits at NCAA #16 on the national leaderboard over 800 meters -- the final automatic national qualifying spot.

And had Elliott not run this weekend (or run this fast), then he would have been moved to the NCAA #17 position, the first spot out from automatic national qualification. The only guy who I could see scratching from the 800 meters this winter is Nathan Green.

In other words, this Washington ace was right on the edge, but barely safe.

Regardless, a 1:46.76 (800) mark is fantastic. Elliott is clearly peaking at the right time. We knew he was probably capable of running under 1:47, but that was by no means guaranteed to happen this winter.

We then come to UConn's Mahamed Sharif, a Husky middle distance talent from the opposite coast as Washington. He also had a huge breakout race on Sunday.

After running 1:48.83 (800) to finish runner-up at the BIG East Indoor Championships on Saturday, Sarif and the Connecticut coaching staff essentially said, "Eh, why not?" and ventured to Boston U. for one last race.

In what had to be one of the most surprising and most clutch races of the season, Sharif dropped a HUGE personal best of 1:46.96 over 800 meters. That was a PR by nearly two seconds! Over the half-mile distance! Just one day after running his original PR!

The likelihood of something like that happening is insanely low. Actually, I can't remember the last time that I saw a scenario quite like this.

With this kind of time, Sharif shouldn't have any issues getting into the national meet. He'll ultimately be an automatic qualifier. But trying to figure out what he'll do on the national stage is impossible. We just need to see if his latest result was a fluke or if he can translate that kind of performance to a far more nuanced and tactical championship setting.

For whatever reason, this was the weekend of the 800 meters. A few men (who we already spoke about) and a handful of women produced some outstanding results to put themselves in position to qualify for the NCAA Indoor Championships.

Below, we opted to employ a bullet-point style format for the sake of time...

There were legitimate concerns from many of us at The Stride Report when we learned of Ky Robinson's plans to race at the World XC Championships on the third weekend of February.

The Aussie distance star was not yet qualified for the NCAA Indoor Championships over 3000 meters going into last weekend. Plus, trying to run a fast 3k just a week after running a grueling 10k on the grass seemed like a significant challenge and a lot of racing before the indoor national meet.

But Robinson rose to the occasion. The Stanford runner ventured to Seattle and secured a massive time of 7:42 over 3000 meters. He earned the win while teammate Charles Hicks ran 7:47 for the same distance, finishing runner-up.

To be clear, we knew that Robinson was plenty capable of running this time. However, it was his scheduling, as well as his rough 3k effort from earlier this season, that made us a little cautious about how we would fare on Saturday.

Does this result change our understanding of the men's 3k picture? No, not necessarily. Robinson doesn't feel like a title favorite in the event, but he does feel like someone who could win NCAA gold on the right day.