Fire & Ice

The biggest weekend of competition has concluded and we are now only a few weeks away from the Big Dance. With just a small handful of meets left, athletes will be scrambling to earn qualifying marks in an effort to kick others out of their favorable NCAA rankings.

Yet, for many of the nation's top athletes, these final few meets will simply be opportunities to rebound from a series of poor races or to continue their hot streak that they have had since the early portion of the season.

Momentum is key in the NCAA. Gaining enough confidence, making improvements, establishing consistency, and developing effective race tactics are underrated aspects that allow many of the NCAA's best to be successful.

Below, we've identified a few key names in the NCAA that will attempt to continue their hot streak of performances or snap their cold streak of sub-par results within the next few weekends.

Andy Trouard (Northern Arizona)

So far this season, the NAU Lumberjack has looked incredibly fit. Coming into this season, many fans around the nation (including us) may have overlooked Trouard after he was overshadowed by the 2-3 finish of teammates Matthew Baxter and Tyler Day at XC Nationals this past fall.

Trouard, however, has shown that he is just as talented. In the two races that he has competed in this season, the Lumberjack senior has yet to lose to a single collegiate so far. He was runner-up to Nike Oregon Project's Yomif Kejelcha after running 3:58.01 at the UW Invite and recently upset superstar Grant Fisher with a phenomenal time of 7:48.21.

Trouard's NCAA rankings currently put him at NCAA #2 in the 3000 meters and NCAA #16 in the Mile. Should his mile time hold up, I imagine he will most likely enter in both races. Who knows? Maybe he runs a fast 5k soon...

Bryce Hoppel (Kansas)

You know how I said that Andy Trouard hasn't lost to a single collegiate all season in the two races he has run? How about Bryce Hoppel not losing to a single collegiate all season (in an open event) in the six races that he has run?

There is a lot to like about Hoppel this indoor season. Leading into this winter, Hoppel was one of the better mid-distance runners in the BIG 12 with an ability to run an effective double while also securing wins in tactical races.

Now, Hoppel has elevated his game to a completely new level. After winning back-to-back 800/Mile doubles earlier this season, Hoppel threw down a personal best of 1:48.36 to win the Rod McCravy Invitational. He would follow that up with an even larger PR the next weekend as he would upset Robert Heppenstall for the win in a time of 1:47.09. That time was even enough to best Isiah Harris' winning time in the fast heat.

Simply put, Hoppel is showing all of the right signs. He's consistently securing wins, he's tactically out-racing established veterans, and he's improving on his times week in and week out.

Carlos Villareal (Arizona)

A few years ago, one of the most electrifying names on the high school scene was Carlos Villareal. As a high schooler, Villareal was able to secure the Arizona state record in the 1600 meters with a blazing time of 4:03.

His first few seasons at U of A were certainly adjustment periods and the monster times didn't come easily. However, Villareal trusted his coaches and trusted the process.

At the beginning of this season, he opened up with a 4:02 (personal best) win at the Larry Wieczorek Invite and later followed that up with a sub-4 performance of 3:59.65 to win his heat at the UW Invite.

Yet, even after dipping under 4 minutes, Villareal acknowledged that his 3:59 probably wouldn't be enough to qualify him for Nationals. So what did he do? He ran faster, of course...

In an elite field of Oregon superstars, Nike pros, and established sub-4 minute milers, Villareal kept his composure and finished 3rd overall in the Husky Classic with a time of 3:57.64 (NCAA #14). That time should be enough to qualify him for NCAA's this season.

With back-to-back-to-back mile PR's, it's tough not to like where Villareal is at right now in terms of fitness. He's make consistent improvements and relying more on his strength than his leg speed. Don't sleep on what this guy can do at Nationals...

Kyle Mau (Indiana)

Coming into this season, Kyle Mau was on my radar as one of the big key names to watch. After anchoring his DMR to an All-American finish at NCAA's last year as a freshman, I knew this guy had enough talent to make him a national contender.

Mau's season started off strong with an 1:51, 4:02, and 8:07. Those times were solid for early in the season, but they would need to be improved upon as the winter months progressed. And boy did Mau improve...

Mau would later drop his 3k PR to an 8:03, run under 4 minutes in the mile with a 3:59, split 3:58 in the DMR to upset Grant Fisher on the anchor, and has now dropped a 13 second personal best of 7:50 in the 3k to finish 4th at the Iowa State Classic.

It's hard to dismiss his achievements so far this season. His racing tactics are sound, he's making solid progression, and he's showing that his range can extend to more than just one event.

I would like to see what else he could do in the mile this season, but for now, I'm content with the performances that he has given us so far.

Colby Gilbert (Washington)

Admittedly, the start to Colby Gilbert's season was rather underwhelming. After a quiet cross country season, Gilbert moved to the track where he was expected to thrive. That was not the case, at least not immediately.

Don't get me wrong, Gilbert's performances were solid. He opened up by tying his 1k PR with a 2:25 and followed that up with a 4:02 Mile performance. However, when you consider that he was on his home track and that he was entered against some of the best runners in the nation, it's hard not to think that he could have been faster.

Just when it seemed that Colby Gilbert was out of the qualifying conversation, he comes out of nowhere to drop a huge time of 7:49 and win the Husky Classic 3k on his home track. Not only does that time put him at #4 in the NCAA, but the win shows that he can compete with other All-American favorites like Cameron Griffith and Cole Rockhold. The win is encouraging and there's a lot to like about a big time like that.

That said, there is also a lot of work to do for Gilbert. He hasn't always been the most consistent and one race isn't going to magically make him an All-American this season. Still, this is a step in the right direction. Hopefully Gilbert can use this race as a momentum swing for the the Big Dance in March.

Amos Bartelsmeyer (Georgetown)

Much like Gilbert, the beginning of Bartelsmeyer's season was unexciting. After completing his rabbiting duties at the Navy Invite, he later hopped into a 600 at Penn State where he finished 8th overall. He would rabbit the 3000 meters in that same meet.

The expectation for Bartelsmeyer was that he would truly open up his season at the Armory. Unfortunately, a 4:08 mile performance that put him 21st overall was a painful wake-up call. After a cross country season where he had only raced once and an East Preliminary round in the spring that concluded with a 17th place finish in the finals, you couldn't help but wonder when we would see the old Bartlesmeyer back in action.

Luckily, our curiosity was put to rest this past weekend as an impressive field of professionals helped drag Bartelsmeyer to a new mile PR of 3:57.53 (NCAA #13).

Bartelsmeyer should be safe to qualify for Nationals with that time, but there is still plenty work to do. After a disappointing finish to his 2017 spring track season and a nearly nonexistent cross country season, Bartelsmeyer has a lot to prove in a short period of time before he can be considered an All-American threat once again.

Still, this PR is a strong step forward and simply getting into Nationals is a huge confidence booster and relief for almost anyone.

Wait what? How does a guy run 7:48 and be classified on the lower-half of this spectrum? Allow me to explain...

In the spring of 2017, Grant Fisher was unstoppable. He had developed a kick that made him untouchable. He scorched the PAC 12 field with a 51 second final 400 to take the 1500 meter title and later used that finishing speed to upset Justyn Knight and secure NCAA gold in the 5000 meters.

That speed has been beneficial for Fisher, but it hasn't always worked, at least not as of late. A barrage of surges at Cross Country Nationals this past fall was enough to shake Fisher and force him to settle for 5th in that race. In the Power 5 Invite DMR, Indiana's Kyle Mau was able to match Fisher's 3:58 split and secure the Hoosiers an upset victory over Stanford. Now, just this past weekend, Fisher was out-kicked by Andy Trouard and finished 2nd overall despite running 7:48.

Fisher is extremely talented and he is still very much in the NCAA title conversation. However, we have to start entertaining the fact that maybe he isn't as tactically savvy as we once thought he was. His past few races haven't been perfect and he's only finished 1st once since last spring (XC PAC-12's) when he won the NCAA 5k title.

It's been a while since we've seen Liam Dee on the track after Iona opted to redshirt him for the 2017 outdoor season. Maybe that's why he doesn't seem to have the same edge that we saw from him last winter season...

The 2017 indoor track season was a series of breakout performances for Dee who secured personal bests of 3:58 and 8:02. After barely sneaking into Nationals, he would later go on to finish 7th in the Mile at Nationals, an All-American position.

However, the 2018 season hasn't been as kind to Dee as 2017 was. The Iona junior ran an unimpressive 2:32 1k at the Mike Massone Invite in early January. After a solid 8:04 effort at the John Thomas Invite, Dee took to the mile at the Husky Classic. His final result in that race was sub-par as he would finish dead-last in his heat with an overall time of 4:00.95.

There hasn't been a glaring race that Dee has really struggled in this season, but the performances he's had so far are not anywhere close to what a 3:58 miler should be running.

Of course, it's important that we don't get too ahead of ourselves. Dee ran his 3:58 at the BU Last Chance meet last year which is how he got into Nationals. He's qualified for Nationals at the last moment before and he can definitely do it again. However, it will certainly be a lot harder for him when you consider that the Mile cut-off times are much quicker this year compared to last.

One of the great things about John Lewis is that he is incredibly consistent. Currently a junior, the Clemson mid-distance star has gone under the 1:50 barrier 21 times in his career.

At beginning of the season, Lewis made a statement with a pair of strong off-distance results. His 2:21 1k was one of the fastest 1k's ever run collegiately since 2010. He later popped off a 4:06 mile which is an incredible time when you consider that Lewis was initially recruited to be a 400/800 specialist. With a personal best of 1:47 from this past spring, expectations were high for Lewis at beginning of this season.

Unfortunately, Lewis has yet to produce an 800 this season that would match his 2:21 1k. In the three 800's that he has run this season, Lewis has recorded times of 1:49.22, 1:50.65, and 1:49.24.

Lewis has incredibly underrated range and spectacular consistency. However, he's in a bit of rough spot when it comes to getting to the next level of fitness for the 800.

Last spring, Kiprotich was having a breakout track season. The Michigan State star was able to record personal bests of 1:49 and 3:42, secure five individual wins (including a BIG 10 title), and earn a silver medal at NCAA's in the 1500 meters.

So whatever happened to one of the best milers in the nation from less than a year ago?

Sometimes, certain guys just don't thrive during the indoor season. So far, Kiprotich has been entered in three 800's and has recorded times of 1:55, 1:52, and 1:50. At the very least, he's been improving on those results every time he has run it. Still, his overall performances have been relatively underwhelming and has left me curious as to why he hasn't run the Mile more often.

At the Music City Challenge meet this past weekend, Kiprotich was finally entered in his best event: the Mile. However, he struggled against a relatively mild field and finished the day with a time of 4:08 in 8th overall.

Although we put Kiprotich at the end of this temperature scale, we should at least recognize that, historically, he hasn't done well during indoors. Just last year, his season bests were 1:51 and 4:24. If he was able to come back in the spring and become a silver medalist, then we should at least expect him to do the same thing this spring.

However, for as long as we are referencing indoors, Kiprotich doesn't seem to be near the point of fitness that we all saw him at last spring.

One of the most underrated and under appreciated stories of the 2016 outdoor track season was seeing small-school 800 specialist Christian Sanders qualify for Nationals, run back-to-back PR's, earn a spot in the 800 finals, and end his junior year as an All-American. It was one of the best cinderella stories that the NCAA had seen in a long time, they just didn't know it.

Fast forward to the 2017 indoor track season and things began to fall apart for Sanders. In the four 800's that he ran that season, he never ran faster than 1:51 despite owning a personal best of 1:46.52. After redshirting the 2017 outdoor track season, Sanders refocused his efforts to this season...so far it hasn't gone well.

In the three 800's that he's had this season, Sanders has gone from 1:54 to 1:52 to 1:53. In fact, he even ran a 1k at the Mike Massone Invite and ended the day with a time of 2:48. Of course, that time is most likely the result of bad luck. There's a good chance that he fell during that race.

Just like with Kiprotich, it's fair to say that some people just don't run well on the indoor oval. Sanders might be one of those guys and that's ok! With his final season of outdoor track eligibility fast approaching, we could see a huge return campaign that puts him back in the All-American conversation this spring. However, until then, Sanders will need to find a way out of this cold streak.