Elaborating on D2 Entries

This is actually something that I expected when I took a look at the TFRRS list before declarations were out. Despite running 4:03 this season (NCAA #5), Mbuta has opted to only pursue the 800 as an individual (NCAA #2) while focusing on anchoring the Lakers’ team to a NCAA title.

He’ll obviously have the 800 meter prelims earlier in the day, but given that he is just one of three athletes under the 1:50 threshold this season, that shouldn’t be a huge issue for him. Of course, he'll still have his hands full as teams like Adams State, CSU-Pueblo, American International and Western Oregon have all made similar decisions for their distance medley relays.

I personally thought that Mbuta had the ability to take home the mile title this season. However, the late surge of milers who ran 4:04 after he posted his 4:03 may have had an impact on the decision that was made here. The Lakers finished 5th at last year’s NCAA meet and are looking to redeem themselves in 2020. Mbuta is in the best shape of his life and definitely has the ability to capture the elusive DMR title.

Okay, so I’m still a tad perplexed by these decisions, but that’s why I’m writing and not making decisions for them. Kipkosgei dropped the 800 meters just like we expected given his competitiveness in the 3000 meters and the mile. The same goes for Campion who has the fastest mile time in the country right now at 4:02. Him entering the mile was a given and dropping the 800 was also assumed. However, what wasn’t a given was seeing him declared for the 3000 (he should be able to get in).

This means that Kipkosgei and Campion could race four times in the span of 48 hours. They’ll both run the mile prelims on Friday and end that day by racing in the DMR (based on the entries). They’ll come back Saturday and run the mile finals if they qualify, and then run the 3000 meters to end the weekend.

By no means is this an outlandish idea, but before the RMAC Championships happened, the Yellow Jackets had the fastest DMR time in the country. It only made sense that they would try to win that event. Having recently run 4:04 at Boston’s Last Chance meet, it also makes sense that Kipkosgei would like to contest that event at NCAA's...but how much will this impact the team's DMR chances?

And for what it’s worth, AIU currently has four alternates listed on the declared sheet. It could mean that one of Campion or Kipkosegi aren’t actually going to run the DMR and that all of my talking points are now invalid.

This was a decision that I thought would go the other way. Bix was the CCCAA State Champion in 2018 and runner-up last year (Chris Weiland now of UCLA edged him) making me think that he wanted to focus on the mile when it came to Nationals. I suppose his 8:03 performance at the Husky Invitational should have indicated that he was shifting focus.

That being said, I do think this signals that Adams State is going to go all-in for the DMR on Friday evening. After posting the fastest time in the NCAA after the conversion (9:44), it seems like the Grizzlies are poised to take down the rest of the field in Alabama. Bix ran 4:08 at UNM earlier this season which converted to 4:02 (NCAA #2). His 8:03 only solidified the fitness he was in, meaning that whoever is going to get the baton on the final leg against him is going to have their work cut out for them.

One thing to note is that Bix did this same double at the RMAC Championships over the weekend. Although he was able to hold off a late charge from Marcelo Laguera to win the DMR, he doubled back in the 3000 meters the next day and ran poorly (8:46 to place 5th). I don’t think this will be the case when he toes the line in Alabama given how well he has run at sea-level this year, but it's something worth watching.

I’m confused and shocked. Dylan Day had the NCAA #11 time in the mile while Nathan Hood had the NCAA #7 time in the 800. Instead, they didn’t declare for those events and have shifted their focus to the DMR.

And maybe that’s a good thing. After all, their team came up short of the conference title by just three-tenths of a second at the RMAC Championships with the aforementioned Marcelo Laguera on the anchor leg.

Day is listed as an alternate for the DMR while Hood is cemented as the 800 leg. The guess is that Day will be taking over the anchor leg for Laguera. The Thunderwolves have put this team together once already this season and they ran 9:58 at the GVSU Big Meet, a day after everyone had already raced in their individual events.

Is that result indicative of how they’ll race as a team at the NCAA meet? I’m not sure.

Obviously, the expectation is that they will run better with this team at the national meet. If that wasn't their mindset, they would have been entered in their individual events. It’s clear that they want to repeat as the national champions in this event and are willing to sacrifice individual accolades to do so.

Christian Noble (Lee (Tenn.)): 5000 + 3000 > Mile

This is not a surprise. Noble is one of the top runners in D2 and he’s made his objective pretty clear from the way he’s raced this season (that objective being to win national titles). He has a legitimate shot of winning both of these races no matter how they unfold. After his conference championships performance, there’s no doubt that he can handle both of these races within 24 hours time.

Marcelo Laguera (CSU-Pueblo): 5000 + 3000 > DMR

This is also the best decision for Laguera. I know that he had helped anchor the CSU-Pueblo team to a qualifying mark in the DMR, but he’s the 5000 meter national title favorite going into the national meet and should be in the mix of things for the 3000 meters. He’s been working on his speed (i.e. running anchor legs for the DMR) and that should greatly benefit him in both races in two weeks.

Justin Crosswhite (Western Oregon): DMR > Mile

Another interesting declaration that I’m surprised by was Crosswhite choosing to only declare for the DMR team. He had the NCAA #7 time in the mile this year after an outstanding indoor season where he lowered his personal best by four seconds. He’ll likely run the 1200 leg which he has done in every instance this season with Derek Holdsworth anchoring the Wolves. Add yet another team to the list of distance medleys that have pushed their chips all-in on the relay.

If WOU wins gold this year, it’ll be their third title in the last four years.

Colorado Mines: Making a Team Title Run > Everything Else

The best thing about depth is...well, everything.

After dominating the NCAA XC Championships this past fall, Colorado Mines has loaded up on athletes heading into the indoor national meet meet. This includes Kyle Moran, Dylan Ko and Grant Colligan all running the 5k/3k double. Colligan was the anchor on Mines’ DMR team last weekend, but he'll likely opt out of that and pursue an individual event. Meanwhile, Ko is among the favorites to win either of the events he is contesting.

Vincent Workman will also be joining the three men mentioned above in the 3000 meters, but will also be running the mile. In addition, we presume he’ll be on the DMR as either the 1200 leg or the anchor leg. It’ll be a busy weekend for him. The last two runners for the Orediggers are Luc Hagen and Jake Mitchem. Hagen will likely also be in the DMR along with the mile while Mitchem will solely run the 3000 meters after scratching out of the 5000 meters.

The cards are all there for Colorado Mines to take home it’s first ever indoor national title and it’s quite possible that they could win a team title with just their distance corps if things go the right way (and we haven’t even mentioned the rest of their athletes in the meet).

This was somewhat surprising because Townsend was apart of that elite tier of runners in the mile this season. You could have made the argument that her middle distance speed favored her in a tactical race. Townsend had run 4:40 (NCAA #3) this season, but has opted for the individual event that she thinks gives her the best chance to win a national title.

By opting for the 800 meters, she avoids having to race Stephanie Cotter and Allie Ludge who have both declared for the mile. Now, Townsend only has to navigate between Cleyet-Merle, Bailey Sharon and Yasmine Hernandez in the 800 meters.

I believe this is the same declaration that Townsend chose in the 2019 season before she was unable to race at the NCAA meet due to a presumed injury. As long as she is healthy, she is going to be a major threat to anyone who challenges her.

Beckford is going to qualify for both of these events, but I’m not sure that this was the initial plan for her when she declared for the mile. She has the NCAA #5 time in the 800 meters this season with a mark of 2:09, so it's easy to understand why Beckford was entered in that race. However, she was ranked at NCAA #26 (!!!) on the descending order list for the mile. After 11 women decided to drop the mile, she will head into the weekend entered into two events.

To make things even more interesting, Lincoln (Mo.)’s DMR team is the NCAA #12 ranked relay in the country and Beckford served as the anchor for that group. My guess is that she will not be a part of that DMR lineup now that she is attempting mile/800 double...but I’ve been wrong before.

Can the freshman handle five potential races in the span of 48 hours? Time will tell obviously, but this is quite the beginning of a collegiate career for the highly-touted freshman.

It comes as no surprise that Narbuvoll opted for the two distance events that she is currently ranked NCAA #2 in. She is probably more heavily favored to win the 5000 meters than the 3000 meters, but that doesn't stop us from believing that she could win both of these events.

Even so, we're still left with one key question.

U-Mary has the fastest DMR time in the country heading into NCAA's and Narbuvoll was the anchor on that team. She has run a flat-track converted 4:45 mile time this year which begs the question, can she triple and potentially win all three races? I personally don’t believe that she will run in that DMR lineup given that Bree Erickson is listed as an alternate for the team. However, I also believe that she is one of the few women who could possibly pull off this lofty triple.

I don’t know how things will shake-out, but U-Mary has the proper resources to ensure that Narbuvoll can focus on her primary events. Erickson has run 4:27 for 1500 meters, but hasn’t been in that kind of shape since 2018.

I guess it all comes down to what Narbuvoll views as more important at the end of the day...but my goodness, it would be fun to watch her race all three.

This was one of the more interesting decisions from the list of declarations. U-Indy would have had the NCAA #12 time (and the final qualifying mark) going into NCAA's with their DMR team. However, they dropped their DMR entry in lieu of allowing their top two runners being allowed to focus on their individual events.

This now means that Lauren Bailey can focus on running against Allie Ludge in the 3000 meters and Ida Narbuvoll in both the 5k and 3k. Bailey has broken out this season and has become a top contender for both of her events. She is going to need every bit of energy if she wants to upset either Narbuvoll or Ludge, but it could very easily happen.

As for Cleyet-Merle, she has opted for the mile and the 800 meters where she will face the wrath of prelims on Friday and then finals on Saturday. She’s has the fastest 800 meter time so far this season, but like Bailey, is facing off against two of the nation’s best in each event. She will also have to take on Allie Ludge as well as Stephanie Cotter in the mile, while toeing the line against Addy Townsend and Bailey Sharon in the 800 meters.

I think this is the smartest move out of all of the declarations that I have seen this year. It wouldn’t shock me to see both of these women come away with at least one national title after it’s all said and done.

Bailey Sharon (Western Colorado): 800 > DMR

I think Sharon is going to opt out of the 1200 leg of the DMR and focus solely on the 800 meters, an event she is ranked NCAA #3 in. Sharon seems to be progressing in the right direction this season and this might be the perfect time for her to scoop up her first NCAA title with Townsend and Cleyet-Merle doubling.

Celine Ritter (Lee (Tenn.)): DMR + 3000 > Mile

Ritter had a 4:46 converted mile that had her sitting at NCAA #6, but has opted to drop the event. This is smart for a few reasons.

1) She is now able to help the Flames in the DMR as they come into the national meet as the NCAA #8 ranked relay. 2) She can double back in the 3000 meters without much hindrance from her efforts the day before. 3) She has a better shot at contending in the 3000 meters than she did in the mile. Ritter and her coach understand how talented the mile field is and have put her in a position for the most success.

Haleigh Hunter-Galvan (Adams State): DMR + 5000 + 3000

According to the declared lists, the only alternate Adams State has listed is Owenika Watson who would likely only run the 400 leg if needed. This means that Hunter-Galvan is currently slated for the audacious triple which we mentioned that Ida Narbuvoll could also attempt. If she really does run the DMR, then she could be putting both of her individual events in jeopardy. She’s been better at the 5000 meter distance this season and given how Narbuvoll races, it’ll be interesting to see if her legs can withstand the quick turnaround.