Admin (Garrett Zatlin)
Dec 5, 20174 min
The first weekend of the indoor track season held some solid performances across the board. Emmanuel Rotich dipped under 14 minutes with a 13:52 5k while Marc Reinas had a breakout performance with a 1:48 800. Yet, maybe one of the most under appreciated results of the weekend was Notre Dame's Jacob Dumford soloing a 2:21 1k at the Blue & Gold Opener. Most track fans familiar with the 1k will understand that 2:21 is flat-out good. Still, the real question is HOW good is 2:21? We're here to answer that question...
The problem with the 1000 meters at the NCAA level is that there isn't a lot of easy data to access. Luckily, we were able to find results for indoor track 1000 meter times at the NCAA D1 level (since 2008) thanks to Athletic.net, a time database that has partnered with DyeStat. We will be using this database and the past 10 completed indoor track seasons for the purposes of this article.
Jacob Dumford's official time this past weekend was a 2:21.45. Below, we have listed the top 30 times over the past 10 years and have attached some accolades next to the guys in the top 15. Here is how Dumford stacks up against some of the best 1k contenders in the NCAA over the past year.
30. De'Sean Turner / Senior / Indiana: (2:22.45) (2012)
29. Dey Tuach / Sophomore / Arkansas: (2:22.42) (2011)
28. Zach Beth / Junior / Wisconsin: (2:22.39) (2010)
27. Gavyn Nero / Senior / Arkansas: (2:22.39) (2011)
26. Aaron Dixon / Junior / Missouri: (2:22.38) (2010)
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25. Chris Gowell / Senior / Baylor: (2:22.38) (2010)
24. Jonathan Moore / Senior / Albany: (2:22.36) (2010)
23. Mike Atchoo / Senior / Stanford: (2:22.32) (2014)
22. Duncan Phillips / Senior / Arkansas: (2:22.30) (2011)
21. Marco Bertolotti / Senior / Stanford: (2:22.17) (2014)
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20. Izaic Yorks / Sophomore / Washington: (2:22.14) (2014)
19. Isaiah Harris / Sophomore / Penn State: (2:22.14) (2017)
18. Josh Thompson / Junior / Oklahoma State: (2:22.07) (2017)
17. Hayden McLaren / Junior / Providence: (2:22.05) (2009)
16. Owen Dawson / Junior / Penn State: (2:21.98) (2010)
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15. Drew Piazza / Junior / New Hampshire: (2:21.97) (2016) <-- 1:45 800 & Multiple All-American
14. Joe White / Junior / Georgetown: (2:21.96) (2017) <-- 1:45 800 & Multiple All-American
13. Vincent Ciattei / Junior / Virginia Tech: (2:21.63) (2017) <-- 3:58 Anchor on All-American DMR
12. Dorian Ulrey / Senior / Arkansas: (2:21.56) (2010) <-- 3K National Champion & Multiple All-American
11. Noah Kappuila / Junior / Princeton: (2:21.52) (2017) <-- Ivy League 1K Champion
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9. Erik van Ingen / Senior / Binghamton: (2:21.28) (2011) <-- 3:57 Mile & Multiple All-American
8. Chris O'Hare / Junior / Tulsa: (2:20.78) (2012) <-- 3:52 Mile & Mile National Champion
7. Peter Callahan / Junior / Princeton: (2:20.78) (2012) <-- 3:39 1500 & Multiple All-American
6. Jeff Moriarty / Senior / Columbia: (2:20.77) (2011) <-- 1:47 800
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5. Neil Gourley / Junior / Virginia Tech: (2:20.54) (2017) <-- 3:40 1500 & All-American
4. Ryan Foster / Senior / Penn State: (2:19.96) (2011) <-- 1:46 800 & Multiple All-American
3. Ryan Foster / Junior / Penn State: (2:19.60) (2010) <-- SAME AS ABOVE
2. Robby Creese / Freshman / Penn State: (2:19.53) (2012) <-- 3:39 1500, 7:50 3K, & Multiple All-American
1. Brannon Kidder / Senior / Penn State: (2:18.26) (2016) <-- 1:45 800, 3:38 1500, & Multiple All-American
Dumford ran the 10th fastest 1k in the past 10 years. If you trim down Ryan Foster's double appearance to just one, then Dumford lands at the 9th spot overall.
In order to earn a spot in the top 10, Dumford had to beat out current NCAA stars like Drew Piazza, Joe White, and Isaiah Harris. Did I mention that all three of those guys have run 1:45 and that one of them is a World Championship qualifier? Simply put, Dumford is not just with elite company, he is ahead of them.
At the same time, we have to acknowledge that Dumford doesn't have the PR's or achievements that some of these other names do. He has never qualified for Nationals and holds modest personal bests of 1:51 and 4:02. For any collegiate, those are solid times, but they hardly stack up to the caliber that we've seen from Piazza, White, or Harris. Does a huge time like this signal a big breakout season for Dumford during the 2018 season? Based on the others around him, it sure seems that way.
But how did the guys in the top 30 fare in the season that they recorded their 1k PR? If we take out Dumford (since we're still waiting to see how his season will play out) and Dey Tauch (who only ran the 1k that season) then we are left with 28 individuals to analyze. Of those 28 individuals, only four of them did not break a milestone mark of either sub-1:50, sub-4:00, or sub-8:00. So, based on historical averages and a sample size of 28 individuals, Dumford has an 85% chance to run sub-1:50, sub-4:00, or sub-8:00.
It might also be important to note that no one in the past 10 years has ever run a 1k as fast and as early as Dumford has. De'Sean Turner is the only other person on this list who has run a top 30 time in December. The rest of the athletes on this list have run their times during January and February. What does that mean for the rest of his season? Honestly, I don't know, but it sounded interesting...
Notre Dame hasn't seen a mid-distance star come out of their program since Jeremy Rae graduated in 2014. Could Dumford be the next South Bend star who puts the Fighting Irish back into the national spotlight? A breakout season for him this winter could give life to a Notre Dame team that is preparing to bring in some of the top distance high school recruits in the nation next year.