Damage Control: D2 Edition

One of my personal favorite articles ever written on this site was an article called "Damage Control" where I more or less posed a bunch of questions to myself and then answered them accordingly.

On paper, it sounds super lame.

In fact, it might have actually been super lame!

But the nice thing about this job is that Streamline Athletes lets me write what I want. As a result, I'm going rogue today, answering some would-be questions from our readers (which I completely made up) while offering some analysis on a few recent D2 performances.

Think of it as Damage Control 2.0.

NOTE: This article will center around marks that are newly listed on the national leaderboard. While some notable winning and non-PR performances will be mentioned, those that saw a significant shift on the national leaderboard will take priority in our analysis.

This is probably where I offer some shock value and say "No, he's not the undeniable title favorite,"...but yeah, he is. His dominance this spring reminds me a lot of what we saw from Thomas Staines a few years ago.

Sharman-Newell just doesn't care that he's inexperienced. he doesn't care that he's never been to a national meet and he doesn't care that none of his indoor track performances suggested that was going to run this fast.

It's absurd! This doesn't just happen!

Yeah, I do. He's really the only guy, in my mind, who can take down Sharman-Newell this year. I actually believe Butare Rugenerwa is better suited for a potential upset given his past displays of pure strength, but Ferguson has been really good this year and he's probably the most refined 800 meter runner in D2.

But even then, the odds are just overwhelmingly in Sharman-Newell's favor. I don't know if there's been any middle or long distance runner in any division this year who has been as dominant as Sharman-Newell has.

Alright, fine, he's probably at the top, but you get what I'm saying here.

The allure of a sub-1:50 mark for 800 meters is admittedly not as crazy as it once was. Last year, 13 men ran under 1:50 and now we are approaching nearly double that number.

Could Weber potentially sneak into the national meet after scratches? Sure, I suppose it's possible, but at the very least, Western Washington should be happy that they have a young guy who can replace Mac Franks who is going to North Florida next year as a grad transfer.

Nah, not really. That's not even a poor performance. Yes, he was an All-American in this event during the winter months and yes, he probably should've beaten Weber, but I'll maintain that Franks is a better miler / 1500 meter runner.

He's been WAY too good this year to let a race like this (which wasn't even that bad) hinder his upcoming postseason. I do think he should be in the 1:49 range at this point in the year, but I wouldn't lose any sleep over it.

He ran really well at the GLVC Championships this past weekend, running 1:49 in the prelims and then 1:50 in the finals. As long as he's healthy, he can be a factor in the postseason, but he needs to be able to run 1:48 if he wants to be an All-American in my opinion -- something he has never done before.

I will say this though, it looks like Nagel is peaking as we enter the postseason and given his past national meet success, plus his extensive national meet experience, I could see him surprising a few names.

Yes and no.

That result and time validated the idea that she was peaking for the postseason after recently running 2:06 a week or two ago. She peaked in the postseason during the winter and now it looks like she's doing the exact. same. thing. this spring.

But at the same time, this is a race that she should have won and seeing her run 2:06 is a time that we expected to see from her.

So...maybe? I don't have a good answer for this one.

Yes and no.

May has been an outstanding half-miler throughout her collegiate career. In fact, there were times where she may have been even better than Beckford. She does, after all, own a 2:06 personal best for 800 meters.

At the same time, May didn't run any faster than 2:12 during the indoor track season and didn't run any faster than 2:10 this spring up until this past weekend.

I know I'm supposed to be an "expert" on predicting this stuff, but gosh, I honestly don't know. You could look at her time and think, "Oh, this is just an outlier compared to her recent marks" and go on with your day.

Or you could look at her time and think, "Oh, she's peaking for the postseason really well."

And honestly, I don't know if there's really a wrong answer.

Everyone will talk about the top-end of the women's 800 meters (which has obviously been incredible), but only 14 women ran faster than 2:10 last spring, including conversions. That number now sits at 24 women in the spring of 2022.

But the women who have separated themselves in 2022? The women who find themselves at the very top of the national leaderboard? Well, almost all of them are established 800 meter veterans or nationally recognized talents.

Yes, I know that seems like an obvious thing that would happen, but in a year where everyone and their mother is running under 2:10, I thought we would see a few new names at the top of the national leaderboard.

And before you say anything, Andrews-Paul may be new to the D2 scene, but she was posting fairly quick marks during her time at Baylor, so she's not exactly new to this tier.

McCune, despite the PR, isn't new to this tier. She was an All-American in this event this past winter and has generally been pretty strong across a variety of events.

This is a good result though! Her overall consistency makes me think that she can be an All-American once again in a few weeks. She feels like a somewhat safe pick right now.

But Lainey Williams?

If you had her running 2:07 on your bingo sheet, then you might as well enter the lottery, because this result came out of NOWHERE.

Williams has never run faster than 5:15 in the mile or 5:04 in the 1500 meters. She also never broke 2:20 for 800 meters on the indoor oval. This spring, she had run no faster than 2:15 until April where she ran 2:13...and then 2:12...and then 2:11 in the prelims this past weekend...and now 2:07.

Sure, the momentum was clearly there for Williams, but a jump this significant? I'm almost led to believe there is some kind of timing error because improvements like these don't just happen.

Not necessarily.

May is a little different when compared to Williams. Prior to this past weekend, May had not been running near her personal best all season long and wasn't necessarily trending close to (or away from) from her 2:06 PR.

Plus, she's super experienced and already had a nationally competitive mark, so her resume is different compared to Williams.

The difference with Williams, however, is that she was trending in the right direction and was running new personal best after new personal best. However, seeing her run 2:07 is far more surprising because, despite her progression, even that was a massive time that we haven't seen from her before.

It all depends on what you value in the postseason. Do you want someone with tons of experience and proven talent (Chrissani May)? Or do you want someone with tons of momentums, upside and a recent big-time personal best (Lainey Williams)?

I'd say Chrissani May, but I could change my mind in like 20 minutes.

Could she double between the 1500 meters and the 800 meters? Yeah, she could, but I just don't know why she would do that.

Andrews-Paul is the clear and obvious half-mile title favorite given her D2 record of 2:01, but when you consider that Yasmine Hernandez has run 2:03 this season, winning gold isn't a complete lock for the Simon Fraser star.

So if I'm Andrews-Paul, I'm running the 800 meters and sticking to it. It's just the safest bet, even if the 1500 meters does become more wide-open for the national title.

Yes, absolutely. This is a no-brainer.

Hernandez would be taking the path of least resistance if she did the 1500 meters. Andrews-Paul is as close to a lock as you can get without actually being a lock. With a collegiate record that is two seconds faster than what Hernandez has done at the absolute peak of her powers, the 800 meters looks awfully challenging to win.

In the 1500 meters, there would theoretically be no Andrews-Paul. We could very possibly see no Ritter and we would almost certainly not see Brianna Robles. Yes, Ava O'Connor would be a legitimate title contender in that scenario, but even if the 1500 meters isn't Hernandez's best event, it's still her best chance of winning gold.

I just don't see the downside with the decision to go up in distance.

Sure! Why not?

O'Connor is just flat-out great. She's consistent, she peaked at the right time during the winter and she appears to be peaking at the right time this spring. The Adams State star earned bronze in the mile at the NCAA Indoor Championships and frankly, she may have gotten better since then.

Plus, she may be more of a pure miler than Hernandez is.

I think Andrews-Paul and Robles not running the 1500 meters are boarderline guarantees. I don't have the same confidence that Ritter will scratch this event for something else, but I still think that's more likely to happen than not.

There is a world where Hernandez runs the 800 meters over the 1500 meters. If that were to happen, then it would be really hard not to give O'Connor the national title favorite status despite her youth.

Miguel Coca ran 13:58 at the Portland Twilight meet and Ezra Mutai ran 29:41 at the NE-10 Championships...but I don't really have much to say here. You don't usually see a ton of fast 5k or 10k times at these conference meets as many of those races turn tactical.

And before you say anything, we already recapped Roisin Flanagan's 15:38 on Saturday...but there weren't a ton of new developments there anyway.

Remember that time when Eleanor Curtabbi ran 10:09 for the 3000 meter steeplechase and we thought that she was the undeniable title favorite who wouldn't be challenged?

Ah yes, those were the days.

Seeing Walsh's Alexa Leppelmeier run 10:13 at the GMAC Championships is monumental. Leppelmeier has been excellent all year long, building outstanding consistency, showing off solid range and just looking flat-out awesome on the track.

But 10:13? Well, that's a jump into a new tier that previously only held Eleonora Curtabbi.

I did believe that Leppelmeier was one of the better steeplechasers in the NCAA this year, but I didn't think that she would put herself in the same class as Curtabbi.

Make no mistake, Curtabbi is still the steeplechase title favorite and she still has four-seconds on Leppelmeier when looking at the national standings.

But if you're looking for a realistic upset in a few weeks, Leppelmeier might be a name who you want to consider barring she doesn't fall.

In the same race where Leppelmeier ran 10:13, we saw Meg Scheske earn a solid 2nd place finish...20 seconds behind the winner.

Scheske's 10:33 mark was super encouraging to see, mainly because she had been sitting in the high 10:30s on a few occasions coming into this past weekend. The rest of her resume is solid and for the most part, she's hitting new personal bests in pretty much every event that she contests this spring.

As for D'Atri, her 10:31 mark gave her a comfortable CCAA steeple title and a top-10 time nationally. That result also matches the caliber of her 17:09 (5k) personal best which she ran at the same meet.

And while I know I sound like a broken record for some of these men and women, it's clear that D'Atri is peaking at a really great time.

The women's steeplechase is tough to figure out as it seems somewhat crowded after the top six, seven or eight names. A lot of these women still need to prove themselves, but there aren't many instances I look at the national leaderboard and have many serious concerns about postseason potential.

That's pretty rare for me to say about any distance field.

Northwest Missouri's Reece Smith continues to do really good things in the steeplechase, recently running 8:42 at the MIAA Championships to take home the win.

However, more importantly, he brought Pittsburg State's Bryce Grahn to an NCAA #11 mark of 8:54, giving us another name who could make some noise on the national stage.

And no, I don't just say that because he ran one fast time.

Grahn actually ran 8:54 at the Drake Relays in 2021 and ran 8:57 in the steeplechase earlier this spring. The history of success is there for this Pittsburg State talent who is really coming into his own this year, running new personal bests in the 3k and the 5k this past winter.

Strictly looking at his resume, Grahn has all of the qualities that could make him a majorly successful postseason runner. However, the men's D2 steeplechase is crazy loaded this year, especially at the top.

Eight men have run 8:50 or faster this spring, meaning that Grahn could run a rough four-second PR and theoretically not earn All-American honors if the national leaderboard were to perfectly translate to the national meet results.

I still like Grahn quite a bit, but having all of the necessary intangibles may not be enough to replace the raw national-caliber firepower needed for an event like the steeplechase this year.