D3 Women's Way Too Early XC Preview

Brett: 90% chance. After seeing Hannan’s incredible 2019 cross country season and mind-blowing performances on the indoor oval, it seems fitting that she’ll continue her domination this fall. However, Kaitlyn Mooney is also returning, and we’ve seen her take down some big-name distance talents before. While last fall may not have been Mooney's best season, she’s had lots of time to get back on track (no pun intended). I wouldn’t be surprised to see her challenge Hannan at some point this fall.

Hannah: 90% chance. The only thing that can stop Hannan is D1 and D2 competition or an uncharacteristically bad day. She was clearly the best runner in D3 last year, and while some great women return, I don’t see Hannan losing becoming a reality.

Kevin: It's a very high chance. I don’t see anyone besides Mooney and maybe Isabel Cardi getting close to Hannan. Her cross country and indoor performances this past year proved that she is far and away the best returner in the country. She hasn’t lost to a D3 runner in any competition since falling to Genny Corcoran (who has since graduated) at the Mike Woods Invite.

Brett: Johns Hopkins has become a dominant force at the D3 level over the last few years, so I don't think it would be absurd to suggest that they’ll be the team to beat in 2020. Despite losing a handful of top talents from last year's title-winning lineup, the Blue Jays still return multiple runners and have a history of producing some of the deepest squads in the country each and every year. Are they the outright favorites in 2020? I’m not swayed to say a strong yes or a strong no.

Hannah: I think so. It's true, they did lose a large contingent of veteran scorers, but they are still one of the deepest teams in the country. Returners such as Therese Olshanski, Ariel Keklak and Ella Baran should evolve into reliable front-runners who will all be capable of leading this team. I don’t think they are unbeatable, but with Bobby Van Allen as their coach, Johns Hopkins will definitely be in the conversation to win their seventh national title.

Kevin: I don’t think so, although they are certainly still a title contender. They lose three of their top four finishers from last year’s national meet, although Therese Olshanski -- who finished 123rd at last year's national meet -- will likely be much better on the national stage this year.

I think that the women of Wash U. -- a team that loses their top two scorers from last year, but returns everyone else -- may be in a better position than Hopkins to win the title, although that's not to say that they have the best chance to win it all compared to other teams.

Williams was going to be in the mix (led by the trio of Borton, Tully and Bourne) until the university recently cancelled all fall sports for 2020.

Brett: Wartburg. A team with lots of potential, they return their entire top seven and will boast valuable national meet experience. Carina Collet is terrific on the grass and she’ll be their reliable low-stick who continues to dominate upfront.

After her, Aubrie Fisher -- who finished 42nd at the national meet as a freshman last year -- will be a legitimate All-American contender. Cassidy Christopher and Trinity Bourland (who both finished in the top 80 of last year's national meet) will serve as crucial returnees for the Knights.

As long as they see improvement from each of their scoring members, Wartburg could absolutely put themselves on the podium.

Hannah: Yes, I know they finished in 4th place at last year's national meet, but I'm going with the women from the University of Chicago.

It will admittedly be a tough season for Chicago to get back on the podium after losing their crucial #2 and #3 runners in Claire Brockway and Maggie Boudreau from last year. However, while some people may have Chicago off the podium in their preseason polls, I think that they'll maintain their spot inside the top four come November.

They return a young core and a star low-stick which may be enough to eventually improve upon their 4th place finish from last year. That starts with Sophie Elgamal, a senior returner who finished 16th at NCAA's last year. Pairing her with last year's lineup returners (4-5-6-7) should could allow the Maroons to be a sneaky-underrated team in 2020.

One runner who had a great indoor season and could make a big difference this fall is rising senior Abigail Shoemaker. She was ranked at NCAA #22 in the 5000 meters this past winter after improving her PR by 28 seconds to eventually run 17:34. When you consider that she wasn't even in Chicago's regional or national lineups last year, it may be fair to suggest that she could be the missing piece that allows the Maroons to return to the podium or maybe even crack into the top three. She offsets some of the scoring gaps that Brockway and Boudreau leave behind.

Kevin: I'll take Carleton. They finished 5th last year and return their All-American duo of Amanda Mosborg and Clara Mayfield. Whenever you have a 1-2 punch like that, you will always be competitive. The Knights return all but one of their top five finishers from last year's national meet, so Mosborg and Mayfield will have an experienced (and accomplished) group behind them. They will need a couple of new faces to step up, but this is certainly a team that can compete for a podium spot -- and maybe even more.

Brett: Clara Mayfield was consistently one of the better runners in D3 this past academic year...and she was only a freshman! We also awarded her the "Best Freshman" award for D3 back in April.

After placing 30th at NCAA XC Championships last fall, Mayfield maintained her momentum and continued to improve on the track. She ended her indoor campaign ranked in the top 11 nationally for both the 3k and 5k, showing us that she’s taken a significant step upward since the 2019 cross country season.

I think her continued growth and another year of experience could yield a potential top-10 finish at Nationals come November.

On the team side, I'm going with Dickinson. Isabel Cardi is a proven performer who finished 3rd overall last year and will be one of the main national title challengers to Hannan later this fall.

The Red Devils finished 9th at NCAA's last year and -- in addition to Cardi -- also return the entire backend of their lineup (4-5-6-7). Much like Chicago, they'll be losing their #2 and #3 scorers from last year, but the returners should prosper from an extra year experience. I think we could see Dickinson improve on last year’s finish by a good amount.

Hannah: I am going to pick Aubrie Fisher from Wartburg. As a freshman, she placed 42nd at Nationals last fall. She then went on to have a solid indoor track season, running 5:03 in the mile and 10:05 in the 3k. She has perennial All-American Carina Collet to train with and a motivated team that could make some major noise on the national stage.

Speaking of Wartburg, I think they are going to be a majorly impressive team this fall. Yes, it's hard to breakout when you finish 6th at the National Championships, but I think they could legitimately put themselves into the national title conversation.

They are led by senior Carina Collet who placed 11th last year and then 15th the year before. They also return their entire top seven. After Aubrie Fisher, they'll maintain their lethal trio of backend scorers which includes Cassidy Christopher, Trinity Borland and Riley Mayer. Those three women were all separated by only 21 seconds at Nationals last year.

Based on everything we saw last year and the women that they return, this could be Wartburg's year to take home NCAA gold.

Kevin: I’ll pick two individuals: Madeline and Hannah Rieders of Mount Holyoke. They failed to qualify for Nationals last fall, but they had incredible indoor seasons where they each ran 17:11 for 5000 meters on a flat-track at the Tufts National Qualifier. The twins run together virtually every time they compete, and that synchronicity will be an advantage over the rest of the field. While they haven’t proven themselves in cross country yet, I would be very surprised if they didn’t -- at the very least -- earn All-American status.

For the team, I’ll say Tufts. Last year, they took a young team to Nationals that consisted of four freshmen and two sophomores. They still managed to finish 8th despite their inexperience. The loss of All-American Sabrina Gornisiewicz (who recently transferred to Northwestern) and the graduation of veteran Rhemi Toth isn't ideal, but those losses aren't nearly as bad as what a few other teams are going through. Plus, this is a team that should thrive in 2020 with another year of experience.

At the minimum, I expect to see an improvement in their team placement from the Jumbos. Who knows? Maybe they'll be challenging for a podium finish in Terre Haute later this fall.

Hannah: To state the obvious, it sucks. Unfortunately, I don’t think these are the only teams that are going to cancel fall sports this year. There are (unverified) rumors circulating that the rest of the NESCAC will be making and releasing a decision soon. Should the entire conference opt to cancel fall sports, that would mean schools like Tufts, Bates, Connecticut College and many others would not be competing this fall.

In regards to just Williams and Bowdoin, the two biggest names that we won’t see at Nationals are Eva Borton and Sarah Tully (both from Williams). Borton was 22nd at NCAA's last fall while Tully was 29th. Both were expected to have good years, but their racing hiatus' are now being extended.

Kevin: Even if it's just those schools, it will be a major shakeup. Williams especially was one of the top contenders in the country this year and they were set to return two All-Americans in Borton and Tully -- as well as 9:55 3k runner Brianna Bourne.

But like Hannah said, it's doubtful that these will be the only schools to cancel fall sports in 2020. Over the next few days (and weeks) we should have a clearer picture of what the cross country season will look like, but for now, everything is speculation.

My hope is that schools and governing bodies will figure out a way to have a season that's as "normal" as possible. There are so many dedicated athletes at the D3 level and it's frustrating that many of them will miss another season of competition, especially those who will be seniors.

But some things are bigger than sports. So if it isn't safe, then it isn't worth it.

Brett: I think those cancellations are likely to set a strong precedent for the rest of the country -- at least at the D3 level. It would not surprise me to see more schools follow with similar actions over the coming weeks, potentially whole conferences as well. As unfortunate of a situation as this is, there has to be a safe way to go about holding athletics. This raises lots of questions for this fall...and very few answers.

As both Hannah and Kevin mentioned, Williams was one of the top contending teams coming into the upcoming cross country on the women’s side (as well as the men’s side). It’s really unfortunate to see that a top program will not be competing this fall, but it’s quite likely they won’t be the only ones.

The dominoes will be falling soon.

Hannah: Parley Hannan does not win the individual national title.

Brett: A team that we have not mentioned in this article will win the national title.

Kevin: Coast Guard will qualify for Nationals as a team and finish in the top 20 at NCAA's.