D3 Men's Way Too Early XC Preview

Any mention of eligibility is based on data from TFRRS

Note: Williams College has recently announced that they will not have fall sports in 2020. TSR was made aware of this decision following the publication of this article.

Brett: It’s really hard to argue against them. By returning six out of their top seven from last year's national meet, the Sagehens are looking very strong with their younger lineup. Widlansky and Paszkeicz are both juniors and still have lots of room to grow. Heck, they also have two other juniors returning, along with seniors Ethan Ashby and Hugo Ward.

Of course, when you consider that last year’s National Championship was so close across the board, I really think that you can’t pin Pomona-Pitzer as the overwhelming favorite. North Central is always solid, Johns Hopkins returns their entire top five and rival Claremont-Mudd-Scripps returns six of their top seven. Plus, other perennial powerhouses will always find a way to rebuild and challenge for the podium.

Regardless, the Sagehens are certainly looking to be one step ahead.

Hannah: If they can travel to Nationals, I think they are the favorites. There are teams like North Central, Johns Hopkins and their rivals Claremont-Mudd-Scripps that all return pretty strong teams, but none are as good as Pomona-Pitzer. Their 1-2 punch of Ethan Widlansky and Dante Paszkeicz is the best in the country and that up-front firepower should lead the Saghens to a repeat title.

Kevin: Sort of. I’m not sure if there is a true title favorite this fall. In fact, I think there are five possible men’s teams that I could see lifting the trophy later this year and I wouldn’t be surprised.

However, if I had to pick a favorite, I think it would be Pomona-Pitzer. They return their double low-stick combo of Widlansky and Paszkeicz from their upset victory last year, as well as the majority of their top seven from last year. The only concern, however, is that the Sagehens flew under the radar in 2019. That won't be the case in 2020. They will have a target on their back a few months from now which has more of an effect than one might think.

Brett: My immediate thought is North Central, but they’re always competitive.

Let's talk about Williams.

They lose All-American Ryan Cox as well as their #4, #5 and #6 runners from last year's national meet. They return their ace -- Aidan Ryan -- as well as their #3 scorer in Elias Lindgren (47th at NCAA's in 2019) and #7 runner Nick Gannon. Gannon didn’t have his best day at Nationals last year, but him and Lindgren should be pretty reliable options to support low-stick star Aidan Ryan.

Although they return only three guys from their 2019 lineup, this is a team that has developed a lot of talent in recent years. They just need some new faces to help round out the scoring gaps in their lineup.

Hannah: So many of the nation's top teams lose numerous runners from last year which could result in a big shakeup amongst the men's team standings. However, if there is a team that I expect to rebound from these scoring loses, then I am going with the men of Wash U. They lost their #1 and #2 scorers in Matteucci and Quaroni, but return the 3-4-5-6 portion of their 2019 lineup.

Junior Patrick Norrick, senior Tucker Cera, junior Jacob Ridderhoff, and senior Jacob Ridderhoff should be able to come together and post a handful of nationally competitive marks later this year. Those four finished within six seconds of each other at the national meet which eventually led to the Bears earning a 4th place team finish. If any of those guys (or someone else from their roster) can become a true low-stick, then they should be able to replicate some of their success from 2019.

Kevin: I have to say North Central. Not only is it impossible to ignore them when talking about national contenders, but they return a lot of young talent despite losing Osmulski and Licari. They’ll be running with a chip on their shoulder, and Gabriel Pommier -- their top returner -- looks set to make a big improvement on his individual placement. He will have a solid supporting cast behind him and Al Carius knows how to get the most out of his guys.

Williams is another team that comes to mind, as does Washington U. -- two teams that Brett and Hannah already mentioned. The Bears of Wash U. will be an interesting group to follow. While a podium finish seems unlikely after losing Matteucci and Quaroni, they should still be a competitive team. They'll be missing a lot of firepower, but they also return four of their top seven from a 4th place at the National Championships last year. Of those four returners, two of them will be seniors. They just need a couple of new names to break-through to .

Brett: Johns Hopkins. It’s their time to shine.

By returning their entire top five from last year’s 5th place finish at Nationals, the Blue Jays are looking to be one of the best teams in the nation after a stellar 2019 campaign. Jared Pangallozzi will continue to be a legitimate front-runner that this team can lean on while Declan Hines, Conner Delahanty, Sean Laidlaw and Patrick Dye should offer reliable scoring support behind them. That group of four all finished between 43rd and 81st at the National Championships last year, giving them plenty of room to grow and improve.

Plus, who knows which unknown names will step up and contribute?

Johns Hopkins will be a major force to be reckoned with this cross country season.

Hannah: North Central. Yes, I know, this seems like a cop-out pick because they always land on the podium, but after losing their top three, it’s not exactly a guarantee. I am never one to bet against the legend Al Carius, so I think he will do what he always does and reload the team. Juniors Thomas Rohr and Matthew Boelke look to be two guys who can help out Gabriel Pommier at the front, but with Braden Nicholson off to Southern Indiana, it will be interesting to see what the second-half of this lineup looks like.

 Kevin: MIT. They had a highly-touted freshman class last year, three of whom made their lineup for the national meet. All-American Sanjay Raman and rising junior Andrew Mah will lead a team that is still relatively young with a lot of promise. It could be argued that the fall 2021 will be "their year" rather than 2020, but I can see them making a lot of noise sooner rather than later.

Mah seems set to make a big individual jump after an indoor track season where he ran 14:29 (5k), and we could still see big improvements from Matthew Kearney, Vedang Lad and Lowell Hensgen as well -- all of whom should benefit from another year of experience.

And you never know who else could come out of the woodwork for a team as deep and talented as the Engineers...

Brett: My pick has to be Marcos Garcia of Benedictine (ILL) who ran a staggering 14:22 5k after the 2019 cross country season. He first rose to prominence after placing 8th in the 3000 meters at the Indoor National Championships back in 2019, but he has a lot of untapped potential on the grass.

He finished all the way back in 209th place at Nationals last year, but that was after a 10th place finish at the Midwest Regional Championships. We know that he's fit given his performances on the track, he just needs to put it all together on the grass -- and I think he’s ready to do just that.

On the team side, Claremont-Mudd-Scripps is looking very strong. They were in contention with many of the top teams at last year’s closely competitive National Championship affair, eventually ending up in 6th place while conference rival Pomona-Pitzer won the title.

Now, admittedly, the loss of a star low-stick like Thomas D'Anieri won't exactly help CMS, but the Stags still bring back all six of their remaining members from last year’s squad. Kyril van Schendel, Stevie Steinberg and Miles Christensen all ran incredibly well together throughout the 2019 season while freshman Henry Pick really stepped up his game towards the end of last fall.

Those four men placed inside the top 90 spots at the national meet and all of them could theoretically end up challenging for All-American finishes come November if they make the necessary improvements. There's a lot to like about this team coming into this fall.

Wartburg is another team that’s due for a breakout season. With Joe Freiburger, Caleb Appleton and Sam Pinkowski on their roster, the Knights looked like a team that would challenge for the podium last fall. However, things didn’t go their way, and they ended up finishing 13th at the national meet.

With Freiburger and Pinkowski returning -- along with Dalton Martin, Morgan Shirley-Fairbairn, Christopher Collet and Liam Conroy -- the Knights have the potential to do some big things this fall.

Hannah: Hunter Moore from Otterbein is new to the D3 scene, but I am expecting him to have a breakout year. He transferred from Indiana and Eastern Michigan where he went sub-25 for 8k at the Bradley Pink invite in 2018. He also finished 65th at the BIG 10 Championship that same year. On top of that, Moore has run 8:25 for 3000 meters (which he ran this past indoor season). I think that he will thrive in a system that produced last year's 12th place finisher Chase Hampton and continue to build on his encouraging momentum.

On the team side, I agree with Brett that Claremont-Mudd-Scripps is going to have a good year. They performed well throughout the 2019 cross country season, even beating Pomona-Pitzer at smaller meets. A few of their runners had a bad day at Nationals which dropped them down to 6th place -- a result that is still plenty impressive regardless of who you are.

Even without D'Anieri, it's still safe to say that men of CMS have an outstanding group of returners this year. The experience that last year gave their returners should serve as useful motivation as they return to Nationals with a chip on their shoulder.

Kevin: In addition to Brett mentioning Marcos Garcia, I think Henry Jacques of RPI is ready to have a big year. He only finished 152nd at the National Championships last year, but ran 14:23 this past indoor season. He had a 7th place finish at Atlantic Regional Championships before the meet, so he was definitely capable of more on the big stage. All but one of his RPI teammates who finished ahead of him have graduated now, so he has a much bigger role to play. I think he’s ready.

On the team side of things, I could see U. of Chicago make some big improvements after their 12th place finish at Nationals last year. Not only do they return Ryan Cutter, but they get back five of their top six, which includes two rising sophomores and one rising junior. This is a young team led by a veteran senior who knows how to win...and they are ready to make a jump.

Brett: Other than the potential changes surrounding the Coronavirus, my biggest question heading into the season is about Lucas Mueller. Will we see him return to top form? Mueller is certainly one of the more talented D3 runners we’ve seen in the last couple years, nearly winning the outdoor national title in the 10k in 2019. However, the 2019-2020 academic year saw him struggle in comparison to his past performances. He still ended up as a cross country All-American last year (placing 29th), but he is more than capable of improving upon that performance later this fall.

Hannah: My biggest question is -- who are we forgetting? There's bound to be someone who comes out of nowhere and makes a major splash on the D3 scene, but who will that be? It could be a freshman, a transfer, or someone who just has a breakout season. Hopefully the Coronavirus doesn’t impact the upcoming cross country season too much and we get to find out who that name is.

Kevin: The obvious question is how this season will be impacted by the Coronavirus. It's no guarantee that any competition will happen right now and there may be major changes if meets do go on. We've already seen Bowdoin cancel fall competition, so who knows who else will follow.

I am also curious as to how the incoming freshmen class will impact the placement of their teams. Most of our projections do not account for them, and a couple of blue chips can immediately change the trajectory of a program. Just take Alex Phillip of John Carroll who finished 15th at Nationals last year. Which new faces will burst onto the scene and begin to make names for themselves?