TSR Collaboration
Oct 5, 202212 min
Edits and additional commentary by Garrett Zatlin
Eric: I think that Lee (TN) is a top-10 team for sure and I think it's safe to say that they are the team to beat in both the Gulf South Conference and the South region. My only concern is the shift up from 8000 meters to 10,000 meters for the regional and national meets which is where some teams can struggle.
The good news for the Flames is that they have a very compact top-five time-spread and they even have their sixth runner close behind which allows for someone to have an "off" day.
Additionally, Silas Eckenroad has looked very good as their front-runner through two meets.
A top-10 finish at the national meet is fairly realistic for them, although whether or not they actually execute on that potential and how far within that top-10 they go is still an uncertainty for me.
Grace: The Flames were an "Honorable Mention team" in our preseason rankings, but Coach Caleb Morgan has once again shown us that he can develop athletes and create top-10 teams.
Their 4th place finish at the North Alabama Showcase was promising, but not unexpected. However, their 2nd place finish at the Louisville Classic showed more depth via some impressive pack-running. They have room for error since they have a solid top-six, but they are missing the benefit of having a true low-stick like Christian Noble.
Silas Eckenroad has been their top runner in both meets and he could be the one to fill that low-stick gap left behind by Noble (although likely to a lesser degree).
I think it is safe to say that Lee can be in the top-10 come December, but in terms of their ceiling of success, I think as high as 6th place is a realistic finish for them at the national meet.
John: I’ll be the first one to say that I doubted the Flames coming into this cross country season. However, what they lack in firepower is made up for with their ability to run together as a team.
The trio of Silas Eckenroad, Adan Rodriguez and Will Stone crossed the finish line with two seconds between the three of them. Meanwhile, Hayden Judge was four seconds back of Eckenroad and Matthew Fowler was 11 seconds back.
11 seconds!
That is absolutely bonkers when it comes to time-spread.
If the Lee men run like this during the championship season, then their potential is through the roof. This performance makes me believe that they could easily be a top-10 team at the national meet.
If they somehow can improve their low-stick scoring, then I could realistically see this team finishing inside the top-five on a perfect day.
Eric: To help everyone out, we ranked UC-Colorado Springs as our TSR #5 team in the preseason.
But no, I think a TSR #5 ranking is still a good place for them as we haven’t seen teams like Adams State or Colorado Mines run their full lineups since the beginning of September and everyone knows that things change a lot due to the weather, injuries, etc.
Unlike the Lee men, the Mountain Lions flexed solid firepower at the Louisville Classic (relative to the men's fiend), but their backend scorers (who weren't at all bad) will likely need to be better in order for UCCS to firmly give themselves a podium spot.
Layla Almasri, Kate Hedlund and Riley McGrath, the three women who made it to the outdoor national meet in the 1500 meters this past spring, have been solid, although McGrath was a little bit further back than expected on Saturday.
However, maybe more importantly, the Mountain Lions should be pleasantly surprised by the emergence of Anna Fauske as she gives this team a nice scoring spark in addition to their current low-sticks.
Based on these next couple of weeks, specifically Pre-Nationals meet in particular, we will likely see how things shake up for this team as, for the most part, they have met our expectations.
Grace: On the women’s side of Division Two, there is a substantial gap between the top-six teams and the rest of the programs in our top-10. We ranked the Mountain Lions at TSR #5 in our preseason rankings and I would put them at TSR #4 right now.
While they are producing great performances, I think their ceiling sits at TSR #4 is no fault of their own. Adams State, Grand Valley State and Colorado Mines are on another level at the moment and I predict that UCCS will be at the top of the chase pack.
Cedarville and Augustana are the other two teams that are guaranteed to be in the mix, but the Mountain Lions have displayed more firepower this season. I wouldn’t put it past UCCS to crack into the top-three as they have certainly proved us wrong in the past, but it would require a perfect day for their scorers.
John: I would not say that my expectations have changed for this group, but I do feel like the Mountain Lions can be better than what we saw this past weekend.
We expected Layla Almasri to be the top runner for UCCS and she’s played that role perfectly thus far. Kate Hedlund and Riley McGrath were the next runners expected to pull this team along. Hedlund did that at Louisville with her 24th place finish, but McGrath finished 60th and was the fourth scorer for this team.
Simply put, that won’t be good enough when the national meet rolls around in December.
But here’s the best part: I don’t think McGrath will race like this when it matters.
If Anna Fauske (34th) races like she did on Saturday on a more consistent basis, then she will give the Mountain Lions four really strong runners towards the front of their lineup. Whether or not that will be enough firepower to overcome any of the four teams that we have ranked ahead of them is still a major question.
Even with McGrath faltering a tad, UCCS still finished 4th as a team in a large field, making me believe that if they hit on all cylinders, they could finish inside the top-four at the national meet.
Eric: Their latest result shows good progress from the Choctaws. However, I don’t think this team is built to topple Lee (TN) or Alabama-Huntsville just yet. Those teams are going to be huge obstacles for Mississippi College as the Choctaws see those rivals not just in the Gulf South Conference, but in the South regional as well.
Mississippi College has a solid team a built around Jan Lukas Becker, a Queens (NC) transfer who offers a great low-stick role, as well as fifth-year talents like Hunter Kurtz and Gabe Poulin. I do think that they will take the third and final automatic qualifying spot in the South region, but they don't have much room for error and they're already a little thin on depth.
To sum it all up: The Choctaws are a good team plenty capable of making back to the national meet, but likely not a team that will contend for a top-10 spot come December.
Grace: In my opinion, finishing 6th at the Chile Pepper XC Festival is a solid performance, but the meet as a whole has not been as strong as it has been in year's past. In my mind, this result has to be taken with a grain of salt.
Lee (TN) beat Mississippi College by a substantial amount at the North Alabama Showcase and the Choctaws have a huge gap at the backend of their lineup.
Individually, Jan Lukas Becker had a fantastic day, but Hunter Kurtz and Gabe Poulin were further back than I expected. Those three men still give them a solid trio, but the final runners in their lineup will need to be closer to Poulin in order to be more successful on the national stage.
Mississippi College is still a top contender for an automatic qualifier in the South region, but they need to close the gap and improve their firepower. I think they have the potential to be a top-15 team, but I currently see them as more of a top-20 team at the national meet come December.
John: I am incredibly intrigued by this Choctaw team. In recent years, they have been a steady team with depth that can make up for the lack of a low-stick presence in their lineup. However, the addition of Jan Lukas Becker almost certainly makes up for that missing component in 2022.
Hunter Kurz and Brock Kelly ran well, but it’ll be Gabe Pulin (46th) to help this team get to the level that they want to get to. He’s capable of racing better and if he does, then that will ultimately unlock any kind of potential that we think Mississippi College has.
As for the next two months, I’d agree with my colleagues that they’re a national-caliber team. Finishing inside the top-15 at the national meet would be a huge improvement from their 2021 season and while it won't be easy, it's certainly doable.
Eric: The Patriot women were really impressive as 3rd place at the Chile Pepper XC Festival is a huge accomplishment from a program perspective. They were only seven points behind Southern Mississippi while beating the likes of Kansas State and Oklahoma, two programs that have way more resources to work with.
I like their chances to repeat as Lone Star Conference champions as West Texas A&M’s depth is not great this year outside of Florance Uwajeneza and Eleonora Curtabbi. Veteran Madison Brown is clearly DBU's low-stick as expected, but not by much as their top-five has been fairly compact so far this fall.
Now, in terms of the regional and national meets, I see those stages playing out similar to last year for Dallas Baptist. They were 6th at the South Central Regional XC Championships and 17th at the NCAA XC Championships last fall, so I can see the Patriots making it to the national meet again and finishing anywhere in the 15th to 20th range.
Grace: While the Chile Pepper field was not extremely loaded outside of Arkansas, this result is still very promising for the Dallas Baptist women.
I think this race highlights their program’s overall improvement and the potential that this team has in store for the rest of the season. Low-stick Madison Brown had an amazing day with her 10th place finish, but the Patriots' second and third runners were the most surprising.
Marissa Insinna placed 16th and Emme O’Donnell was not too far behind in 26th place. If these two women can get closer to Brown, then Dallas Baptist suddenly has a lot more firepower.
I would put their ceiling at a 20th place finish at the national meet based off of this performance. Prior to this meet, I probably would have put them at 26th, so I think this race was very promising development for the Dallas Baptist women.
John: Coming into the season, there was some concern about whether or not Madison Brown was an elite talent at the Division Two level.
Well, I think it’s fair to say that she has addressed that uncertainty and has passed every test we have for her with flying colors.
However, as Grace mentioned, it's the likes of Marissa Insinna and Emme O’Donnell who have taken a huge leap forward this fall and their efforts have not gone unnoticed. Insinna was 16th overall with O’Donnell 10 spots back in 26th. Their performances are incredibly encouraging and they certainly make me feel like this team has gotten over the hump.
The Patriots finished 17th at last year’s NCAA XC Championships and if I’m honest, anything worse than that would be considered a disappointment for 2022. I think this team can finish inside the top-15 at the national meet come December, but Brown will need to be a top-30 finisher while Insinna and O’Donnell will need to replicate the same caliber of their performances from this past weekend.
Eric: Depth is going to be an issue moving forward.
I see Missouri Southern boasting three reliable runners in JP Rutledge, Gidieon Kimutai and Ryan Riddle (as expected). However, gazing at the rest of their roster, I don’t see a lot of experience which would make me nervous if I was a coach looking to contend for an MIAA title, a Central regional title and/or a top-10 finish at the national meet.
The good news is that Riley Simpson toed the line at last year's national meet, so at least he knows what to expect. With Kelton Sorrell, there is going to be a fairly big learning curve as this season will be the first time that he runs a regional race (which is 10k instead of 8k).
Clayton Whitehead is a transfer from South Dakota who has some experience as he raced at the Summit League XC Championships in all three seasons, but is still looking to find his groove.
I think the Lions will fall in the 10th to 20th range at the national meet.
Grace: To an extent, I think there are some things to worry about with this team, but it is certainly not a lack of talent. Rutledge, Kimutai, and Riddle are an impressive scoring trio for the Lions, but their lineup as a whole is inexperienced and fragile.
I am confident in the potential that this team has, but their depth requires greater consistency and needs additional experience. If their lineup has a good day, then I can comfortably put them at 8th at the NCAA XC Championships...but can they have a “good day” when they need it most?
John: Is it weird to say that I might be more confident in them after this past weekend?
I understand that the Chile Pepper XC Festival has gotten weaker in terms of talent, but the Lions finished 3rd overall with what I consider to be the toughest race of JP Rutledge’s career.
If he races up to his talent level, then Missouri Southern easily finishes in 2nd place as a team this past weekend. That would have been just behind an Arkansas team that was considered for a top-25 spot in our most recent D1 team rankings.
Zachary Finley and Gabe McLain haven’t made quite the improvements that we had anticipated for them and that’s part of the concern as the season goes on. Yes, the Lions are young after their top scoring trio, but Finley and McLain have the experience that we thought/think would help this team crack the top-10 at the national meet in December.
And I still believe that they can reach that point.
Eric: A lot of people may gloss over the results from Grand Valley State from the Louisville Classic (men won, women finished 3rd), but if you're a fan of the Lakers, then these were encouraging results.
Gone are Hannah Becker and Isaac Harding who were national champions a year ago. It's a new era in Allendale. The Lakers showcased their depth this past weekend and have shown that they are not rebuilding. Instead, they are still title contenders.
Plus, they have a mix of the new and old on the women’s side as veterans Natalie Graber, Klaudia O’Malley, Kayce Rypma and Taryn Chapko were in the top-seven along with newcomers Abby VanderKooi and Lauren Kiley.
On the men's side, it's still the Tanner Chada show, but he has help from Andrew Hylen, Koby Fraaza, Brock Wooderson and Scott Spaanstra to name a few.
As of now, I’d see both teams finishing in the top-three at the national meet just like we had anticipated.
Grace: The Lee (TN) women are noteworthy due to the fact they placed one spot behind our preseason TSR #10 team, Cedarville, at the Louisville Classic.
The Flames graduated their top runners from last year, but what Coach Caleb Morgan has been able to accomplish with the development of his returning women is so impressive.
Aria Hawkins has stepped up to a leadership role while Liza Kellerman and Danielle Horter have made strides in their ability to bring firepower to the Flames’ lineup. They certainly have improvements to make by the end of the season, but this result was promising.
The Lee (TN) women started as an "Honorable Mention" team, but they could rise in our rankings by the end of the season.
John: I liked what I saw from a few individuals over the weekend.
At the Pacific Invitational in California, we saw Fresno Pacific's Xavier Smith and Bryan Baneulos earn top-five finishes while leading the Sunbirds to a 2nd place team finish. Sure, they were racing Cal Poly's "B" team, but seeing them be competitive is nice.
On the women's side, I thought Florance Uwajaneza and Elenora Curtabbi ran well at the Louisville Classic. Both women finished inside the top-20.
We thought that both women had a legitimate shot at finishing inside the top-20 at the national meet this fall and so far, they've validated that notion each time that they've toed the line this season.