TSR Collaboration
Oct 19, 202211 min
Edits and additional commentary by Garrett Zatlin
Eric: The Sunbirds must first make it out of the West region, but that seems plenty doable. Last year, they made it to the national meet and finished a solid, but modest 21st place overall.
As the race moves up from 8k to 10k during the championship portion of the season, teams like Azusa Pacific, Chico State, Western Washington and Cal Poly Pomona could be a challenge for the Fresno Pacific men to navigate past, and that's where some of my cautiousness comes in.
However, thanks to their “Big Three” consisting of Xavier Smith, Bryan Banuelos and Abesolom Teffra, the Sunbirds should, in theory have enough firepower to counter some of the scoring from their regional rivals.
They also have an experienced coaching staff that assisted them in the transition to 10k last year. So, with that in mind, I like their chances at making it to the national meet yet again and finishing in the 15th to 20th range.
John: I like this Fresno Pacific team and what they have accomplished during the early portion of their season. Their latest result at the Santa Clara Bronco Invitational only reaffirms that things are trending in the right direction.
You could argue that plenty of their 2021 success came on the back of Patrick Kiprop, who now runs for Arkansas, leaving us with questions about how they would look in 2022.
But despite that departure, the veteran leadership of Xavier Smith and Bryan Banuelos has steadied this team. Smith has been in the top-10 of every race this season and the lead runner for the Sunbirds in 2022. Banuelos, meanwhile, has been a very good secondary scorer with multiple top-15 finishes, but I don’t think we’ve seen the best of him yet this season.
The 2021 All-American is arguably the better runner based on the entirety of his resume and if he figures things out, then he effecitvely gives the Sunbirds two outstanding low-stick options instead of two "very good" low-stick options.
Abesolom Teffra was the next runner across the line at Santa Clara and we can easily call this the best performance of his young career. Teffra finished 23rd overall while being his team's third scorer and showing us a flash of potential that could potentially change how Fresno Pacific competes in the postseason.
Jacob Resendez didn’t race last weekend, but he’s consistently been ahead of Teffra this season, making us wonder how good this team can be when everyone clicks at 100%.
If they can get three runners to race like they did at Santa Clara, then I’d say they could be a fringe top-10 team in December. That’s a big "if", but it's certainly something they’re capable of pulling off.
Brett: As both John and Eric have mentioned, this was a very positive step in the right direction for the Sunbirds. They now have not one, not two, but three solid scoring options to work with towards the front of these nationally competitive races.
However, I'll play "Devil’s Advocate" and provide a counter: Of one of those three men falter, then this squad will have to fire on all cylinders to make up for that scoring deficiency, especially from the rest of their top-seven.
Rodney Chemalma and David De Loera were the team’s fourth and fifth scorers, respectively, at the Santa Clara Bronco Invitational, running some notable personal bests along the way. They’re also both freshmen, so these guys definitely have some room to grow in the coming months, although youth is always a tricky thing to gauge.
If they continue to trend in a positive direction like they have been all season long, the ceiling for this team might be even higher than we expected.
Akin to John’s point about Banuelos, if he can return to the All-American form that we would expect of him, then having two guys who could finish in the top-40 at the national meet would be a massive boost for this team.
We’ll just have to see where some of these “ifs” take this Fresno Pacific team.
Eric: Colten Brand or Henry Klitzke didn’t run for Augustana and if those two are running, then this most likely goes a different way.
That, however, is not to take anything away from Nebraska-Kearney as they ran one heck of a race. The Lopers had a very inexperienced group last year and this year's team has looked completely different. The men from Kearney are a team on the rise.
Am I confident that UNK men they are better than a full-strength Augustana team, Pittsburg State or Missouri Southern?
No, admittedly not, but they are a better team than last year and a team that could surprise some people by cracking the top-20 at the national meet.
John: Eric is right on about this Augustana lineup. Matt Steiger and Jesse Kaas had strong races, but I want to reserve any judgment on this team until Henry Klitzke and Colten Brand race for the Vikings.
That seems fair, right?
As for Nebraska-Kearney, this was a very encouraging result. As the low-stick, Luke Stuckey has been a constant high-end scorer in this Lopers' lineup over the past two seasons. He led the Lopers at the Platte River Rumble in 2nd place overall, but it’s what Ben Arens and Myles Bach did behind him that has changed the dynamic of this team.
Arens and Bach had the best track seasons of their respective Loper careers to start 2022 and that fitness has since translated to the grass. Arens finished 3rd this past weekend while Bach finished 7th, giving UNK three athletes across the line before the Vikings had two.
Yes, I understand that the Vikings were missing two top runners, making this result a potential throwaway for them, but that is not the case for Nebraska-Kearney.
The Lopers were 25th at last year’s national meet, but look much better than that this season. If they can get some improvement from their backend scoring, then you’re potentially looking at a top-15 team in December.
Brett: Once we see this Augustana lineup in its entirety, it’ll be a lot easier to make sound judgments on where their potential lies for the postseason. For now, we’ll just take this result for what it's worth: Nebraska Kearney is an up-and-coming squad.
If Myles Bach can transform the low-stick duo of Stuckey and Arens into a low-stick trio, then that will certainly help the Lopers’ team prowess quite a bit.
Not to mention, they could have three guys who could also challenge for All-American spots come December. There’s still some season to run, so we’ll see how they continue to progress as the front-runners for the Lopers.
Now, if their back-end scorers can continue to squeeze down their top-five time-spread to just a little more in the next few meets, then that could really elevate this Nebraska-Kearney team from a fringe national meet qualifier to potentially finishing in the top-half of the team standings...or better!
Grace: Surprised? Not really.
I knew heading into this meet that Adams State had the potential to win both race, it was just a matter of actually executing.
And they didn’t just pull off two wins, they dominated the meet on both sides.
The women scored just 30 points which was a margin of 40 points ahead of runner-up Cal State Fullerton. The men were even more impressive, scoring just 24 points which was a full 79 points ahead of the 2nd place team.
The talent on this roster was undoubtedly there coming into this season, but we hadn’t seen the extent of their depth until this past weekend due to strategic lineups and limited races.
In other words, their recent results weren’t a surprise. Just a confirmation of their talent. However, I will admit, I was maybe just a little bit surprised by just how good both teams looked, especially at the backend of their lineups.
On the women’s side, low-stick and our TSR #1 runner, Brianna Robles, placed 3rd overall and had an amazing second race of the season. Precious Robison showed a massive jump in her fitness and was just nine seconds behind Robles.
Emily Schoellkopf solidified herself as a key member of the Grizzlies’ lineup while Franziska Althaus and Morgan Hykes also displayed improvements that will greatly benefit the already-dominant Grizzlies.
Putting five women in the top-11 at an invitational of this size shows just how talented this team is. This performance increased my confidence in the Grizzlies winning the national title in December, but the idea of them losing was never in the cards to begin with.
Eric: I agree with Grace that, before last weekend, everyone was speculating how good the Grizzlies were. But after seeing them in action at sea level, they are (unsurprisingly) the team to beat on both the men's and women's sides.
I mean, their depth is just off the charts!
The men put their entire top seven in the top-15 which would make you check who they raced against. Yes, several D1 teams brought their “B” squads, but even they couldn’t break up the pack of Adams State runners.
The women’s side displayed an equal amount of depth, slotting their entire top-seven in the top-16. You even saw newcomer Maggie McClensky make her debut by running 20:48 and finishing 16th place overall!
Brianna Robles continued to show how talented she is in the distance events. Awet Beraki doesn’t want you to forget that he finished 2nd in both the 5k and 10k at NCAA Outdoor Championships earlier this year. Each runner looks like they are true national title contenders.
Everything is still clicking on all cylinders in Alamosa, Colorado.
John: I will start with the men as their lineup is what stood out most to me.
The depth of this team is just out of this world. The Grizzlies went 1-3-4-7-9 in a field of 276 finishers. I’ll admit, this was not the best competition that they could have faced, but they made easy work of a rising Division Two squad Azusa Pacific, scoring 24 points to APU’s total of 103 points.
Awet Beraki (1st) dominated. Cameron Allan (3rd) has been an incredible addition. Clement Duigou (4th) and James Dunne (7th) are contributing as expected. Miguel Coca (9th) has taken a step forward from last year’s campaign on the grass. Yonas Haile (13th) and Mitchell Dervin (18th) were the final two runners rounding out the top-seven.
Those results were important to see because outside of Haile, this is a brand new team compared to what the Grizzlies had in 2021 when they finished 2nd at the national meet. Andrew O’Keefe hasn’t been quite as good this year, but if he returns to his top form from 2021, then he could be an incredible boost to a team that admittedly doesn’t really need it.
There has also been no Isaiah Rodarte, Mikah Paiz or Davonte Jett-Reynolds this season...and yet, the Grizzlies haven’t missed a beat.
On the women’s side, it's hard to be too surprised by their results.
Bri Robles and Precious Robinson had their expected races, finishing as the top-two runners for the Grizzlies. Emily Schoellkopf, Franziska Althaus and Morgan Hykes were the three final scorers finishing 8th, 10th and 11th, respectively.
We expected all five of these runners to contribute to this varsity lineup this season and that is proving to be true. Maggie McCleskey (16th) racing in uniform also gives us some more insight into the futures of Fiona Hawkins and Ava O’Connor who raced unattached last time out.
Nicole Lawrence is better than this performance (20th) at the Highlander Invitational indicates and this is probably just an anomaly. Her expected return to form makes Adams State one of the best lineups through six runners.
Grace: This wasn’t necessarily a “standout” performance given that she was already a name to watch this season, but I think the consistency and progression of Stanislaus State star Kaela Dishion needs to be acknowledged.
Dishion placed 6th at the Santa Clara Bronco Invitational this past weekend against a competitive field of Division One and Division Two teams.
Her performance in that race was impressive, but her time of 20:00 on the 6k course is also worth noting. Before the Bronco Invitational, she won the Cougar Challenge and Kim Duyst Invitational and placed 3rd at the University of San Francisco Invitational. Along with her individual talent, she is leading a top-10 team into the postseason.
With her most recent performance, Dishion has solidified herself as one of the best in Division Two. How high is her ceiling considering her current momentum?
Eric: I thought we saw an encouraging result from the Chico State men this past weekend as they were competing at Santa Clara. The men won the race with ease.
Yes, we'll admit, the meet wasn’t as deep as the Highlander Invite where Adams State competed, but it was still nice to see the Wildcats run their varsity squad. Chico State is one of those teams where you think you know where they will be in our D2 hierarchy during most seasons, but until they run at a meet in October, you never know for sure.
Jack Emanuel and Omar Alvarez-Hernandez ran well, breaking 24 minutes and finishing within the top-10. Not only that, but their time-spread never got too out of hand as they went 2-5-14-16-17 to highlight their pack-running style.
Looks like Chico State will yet again be in contention for a podium spot.
John: I want to talk about two men’s teams that I saw over the weekend.
I’ll start with Mississippi College. The trio of Jan Lukas Becker (TSR #9), Gabe Poulin and Hunter Kurz could be a real problem for their competitors as we move into the postseason. They went 1-2-3 at the UAB Blazer Classic and helped the Choctaws score 25 points en route to the team title, winning by 30 points over Memphis.
Brock Kelly (12th) has been a steady backend scorer so far this season and if he continues to progess, then he brings an element of depth that may have been lacking behind those top-three.
Christian Balcer (7th) has been inconsistent this season, but if this is the kind of performance that we see from each time out, then the Choctaws look incredibly different than we thought at the beginning of the season.
The second team I want to talk about is the East Central Tigers.
You’re probably asking yourselves, "Who is East Central?" and well, I’ll let you know that the Tigers lost to the Missouri Southern Lions (TSR #9) by just four points at the DBU Old Glory Gallup.
The Tigers went 2-3-7-9-19 to score 40 points and push Missouri Southern to the brink.
This comes on the heels of a 9th place finish at the Chile Pepper XC Festival where the East Central were 79 points back of Missouri Southern. If they continue performing like this, then they could be a dark horse out of the Central region in November.
On the women’s side, I haven’t fully decided about how I feel about the Augustana women’s performance at the Bradley Pink Classic.
The Vikings finished 5th overall as a team, but were 79 points back of Grand Valley State who finished 4th. When we moved them back a couple of spots in our latest team rankings update, we weren’t sure what to make of the Vikinggs as we hadn’t seen a full lineup from them in a large, nationally competitive field.
Part of what we thought made this Augustana team so dangerous was their upfront firepower. And although Megan Means and Nicolette Schmidt were inside the top-30 this past weekend while PJ English was 39th, we were still left wanting more.
Iris Velting and Mia Salas performed as expected and their continued consistency. I still think this is an elite team on their best day, but we have yet to see that from them this season.
That said, Augustana peaks well for the postseason and this could all be part of their plan. But right now, I have some reservations about how good this team can be in December.