Crunching Numbers (Part One)

The NCAA season is off and running (pun conveniently intended) and there have been a ton of exciting performances so far. Whether it was the Bill Dellinger Invite, John McNichols Invite, Roy Griak Invite, or Battle in Beantown, we have seen a handful of interesting results which are already shaping the way we understand the balance of power in collegiate cross country.

Because of that, we thought it would be a good idea to review key finishes from certain teams and evaluate how those results will impact the national qualifying picture.

For instance, how much of an impact will Washington's finish at Beantown have on the NCAA qualifying picture? Which teams will earn Kolas qualifying points from the Dellinger Invite? Which results matter and which don't?

Well, we're breaking all of it down below...

Of course, before we dive into the meat and bones of this article, it is probably best to understand the basics of the Kolas qualifying scenario. Click here in order to learn more.

Affected Teams (who could possibly earn Kolas points):

- Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders

Potential Impact (on a scale of 1 to 10):

Low (2)

Notes:

The Middle Tennessee State men surprised many of us at the Commodore Classic when they took down a loaded Indiana team by seven points. The victory, however, was more than just a great display of talent. The end result likely earned the Middle Tennessee State men a key Kolas point assuming that the Hoosiers qualify for Nationals.

The South region will be extremely front-heavy this fall with teams like Alabama and Ole Miss vying for a top two finish in their region (along with Middle Tennessee State and possibly Florida State). There is a very realistic possibility that the Blue Raiders falter to 3rd at their regional meet, leaving an at-large bid as their only hope.

However, despite having that single Kolas point, MTSU will need at least one more Kolas point to even enter the realm of teams who could possibly make it to Nationals. In theory, another Kolas point shouldn't be all that difficult to come by...right?

The rest of Middle Tennessee State's schedule includes the Greater Louisville Classic, the Arturo Barrios Invite at Texas A&M, and the Conference USA Championships during the first weekend of November.

Last year, those meets held a handful of great programs who could have given MTSU valuable Kolas points if the Blue Raiders beat them. However, there is only one team in their next three meets who could realistically offer an additional qualifying point (Texas).

If MTSU was able to beat Indiana, they should be able to beat Texas relatively easily at the Arturo Barrios Invitational. Even so, having two Kolas points does not at all guarantee the Blue Raiders a spot to NCAA's.

If the men from Murfreesboro are unable to finish inside the top two at the South Regional Championships, they could be in serious jeopardy of not going to Nationals.

Affected Teams (who could possibly earn Kolas points):

- Michigan Wolverines

- Illinois Fighting Illini'

- Ohio State Buckeyes

- Georgetown Hoyas

Potential Impact (on a scale of 1 to 10):

Medium (4)

Notes:

One of the more interesting developments of the season so far has been seeing the Penn State women underwhelm in consecutive meets. The Nittany Lions started their season off at the Spiked Shoe Invite where they settled for 2nd behind the Georgetown Hoyas (despite not having Julia Paternain).

We expected the women from Penn State to bounce back this past weekend at the Buckeye Preview, but instead dropped to a surprising 4th place overall, this time with a full lineup. For a team that is ranked at #14 in our rankings (for the moment) this was not a result that we expected.

Despite the struggles that we've seen from Penn State, they can take solace in the fact that they are in a Mid-Atlantic region that is relatively wide-open this year. The Villanova Wildcats are not expected to be contenders for a top two spot in the region this year. Instead, teams like Princeton and Georgetown will battle with the Nittany Lions for an automatic bid.

Although the competition in the Mid-Atlantic region may be somewhat deep, Penn State can still contend with these squads on the right day. Their competition isn't unbeatable unlike last year's Villanova team.

If Penn State does finish inside the top two of their region in November, they will grant one Kolas point each to Michigan, Illinois, and Ohio State (since those teams beat them at the Buckeye Preview). They will also grant one point to the Georgetown women (since the Hoyas beat them at the Spiked Shoe Invite).

For Michigan, this Kolas point is basically negligible. If the Wolverines don't finish inside the top two at the Great Lakes Regional Championships, then they will likely have earned enough Kolas points from other meets to earn a national qualifier. And if that didn't happen, they would likely be thrusted into a "push" scenario.

Of course, the story is a bit different for teams like Illinois, Ohio State, and Georgetown.

Much like their regional rivals, the Georgetown women will be a top contender to finish inside the top two at the Mid-Atlantic Regional Championships. However, if they don't, then they will need to rely on their regular season performances in order to earn an NCAA bid. The team will most likely need more than just point to advance to the national meet, but they could very easily secure another point or two with a decent performance at Paul Short this upcoming weekend or at the Nuttycombe Invite in mid-October.

As for Ohio State, they will be tasked with battling through the ultra-deep Great Lakes region in order to get to Terre Haute. That will be difficult, so unless they can put themselves in a "push" scenario, they will need to gather enough Kolas points to earn a national bid. Having one potential point helps, but they will need to score additional points when they depart for Nuttycombe.

As for the Illinois women, they could be a team that ends up sneaking into a top two spot in the Midwest region this year. With Minnesota redshirting the Hasz twins, one of the automatic qualifying spots in the Midwest region becomes wide-open.

Even so, the Gophers will still be a challenge, Iowa State is historically a very solid squad, and Oklahoma State is a perennial powerhouse. If the Fighting Illini' are unable to finish inside top two come November, then they will need to rely on every point they have in order to earn themselves an NCAA qualifier. Unfortunately for Illinois, this one theoretical point from Penn State will probably not be enough to put them in that position. The Illinois women will need to score additional Kolas points at Pre-Nats and the BIG 10 Championships if they want to give themselves a safety net heading into the postseason.

In other words, Penn State's early-season struggles certainly helps these teams moving forward...but it doesn't necessarily define whether or not they will be going to Nationals.

More so, it's very possible that the Penn State women simply don't finish inside the top two of their region. If that happens, all of what we just talked about no longer matters.

Affected Teams (who could possibly earn Kolas points):

- Syracuse Orange

- Army Black Knights

- Stony Brook Seawolves

- Harvard Crimson

Potential Impact (on a scale of 1 to 10):

Medium (7)

Notes:

The Washington finished a surprising 5th place at the Battle in Beantown a few weeks ago. The result was certainly surprising, especially since the Huskies were (are?) expected to be a podium team in November. However, what may matter more was the potential Kolas points that Washington could give away.

Now, it's important to clarify that the Washington men might (emphasis on "might") not have run a full "A" squad during their time in Boston. There is no doubt in my mind that Andrew Jordan, Talon Hull, and Jack Rowe will be a part of Washington's squad at NCAA's later this season. However, there are still a handful of runners on their roster who could fill out the rest of this lineup come November.

Even so, all it takes is four men from their Beantown lineup to officially make this an "A" team (and therefore give points to the teams who beat them). We don't know if there will be another runner outside of those aforementioned three from Beantown who will still be in their varsity seven two months from now, but for the sake of this conversation, let's assume that's the case.

The men from Syracuse, Army, Stony Brook, and Harvard beat the Huskies at Beantown, meaning that if Washington qualifies for NCAA's, they will give one Kolas point to all of those teams.

For Syracuse, this is essentially an unimportant point. They are a heavy favorite to finish inside the top two of their region, meaning that any Kolas points that they earn will not have an impact on how they qualify for NCAA's.

However, for Army and Stony Brook (and to some extent Harvard) this is a huge result.

The Stony Brook men will be battling in a Northeast region that also holds teams such as Syracuse, Iona, and Army. Although Stony Brook can certainly contend with these programs for a top two spot, it won't be easy. If they fall to 3rd or 4th place, they will need every point they can get in order to earn an at-large bid. Having one point before the start of October greatly helps them.

But let's say Stony Brook does finish in the top two of their region. If that were to happen, then the men from Army would still be in a phenomenal position. Not only would they have one point from beating Washington, but they would also have one point from the Seawolves since they beat them at Beantown.

In that situation, Army would have a little bit of a cushion heading into the Northeast regional meet and they may need it. If Army is unable to beat out Stony Brook for the second automatic qualifying spot in November, then they could have two Kolas points from the month of September which could (in theory), put them in the national qualifying conversation. Of course, if Iona secures that second spot, then Army will only be left with one point (along with Stony Brook).