Cross Talk: The Iowa State Dilemma

This weekend will be one of the biggest weekends in the NCAA. Along with the Husky Invite, vast amounts of incredible talent will flood Iowa State’s indoor track facility for the ISU Classic. The headlines will discuss Sean McGorty's return to the mile while the 3k and 5k fields are expected to produce fast times and top ranked results.

However, while most people are focused on the meet that Iowa State is hosting, I'm more interested in the actual Iowa State team instead. No, not their track team, but their cross country team.

If you haven't already heard the news, the Iowa State Cyclones shocked the NCAA two weeks ago when Flotrack reported that Coach Martin Smith was able to secure Tennessee-Martin cross country All-American Edwin Kurgat. It was a mind-boggling move from the Cyclones who were already favored to return to the 2018 cross country season as podium favorites. However, with the addition of Kurgat, expectations have begun to rise.

In 2018, Iowa State will return the entirety of the their top seven from last year. That top seven will be the same group of scorers that rallied to finish 7th at the 2017 NCAA Cross Country Championships this past fall, three positions off from a podium spot.

If you factor in Kurgat's 21st place finish into the team scoring from last year, the Cyclones would have finished with 219 points...two points ahead of Stanford and 4th place overall.

With young guys developing, strong recruits entering the program, and most of the roster not even graduating, it's safe to say that the future is bright for Coach Smith's squad.

Andrew Jordan has proven that he is a true low-stick after he finished 15th overall at NCAA's last fall. He will now be joined by Kurgat, another XC All-American who could be paired with Jordan to create one of the most lethal 1-2 punches in the NCAA.

The JUCO transfers from last year, Festus Lagat and Stanley Langat, will have a year of D1 competition under their belts and should be primed for an improvement in 2018. Langat was 53rd at last year's championship meet.

Others like Dan Curts, Nathan Rodriguez, and John Knownes will return to the squad in their final season of eligibility and fight for the chance of being on the podium. They will bring experience and options to a team that, historically, been known for their depth.

Of course, we can't forget about Thomas Pollard. As a redshirt freshman, the man was a star who nearly finished as an All-American. Yet, health complications held him back from hitting his true potential in 2017. With those health concerns now identified and tended to, Pollard could be the biggest X-factor of this entire team in 2018. It wouldn't be too far fetched to say that he could end up as All-American this fall...

Finally, there is Milo Greder, the true freshman who came out of nowhere last season to save Iowa State's chances of securing a BIG 12 title. Despite only being a freshman, Greder had a monumental impact on the overall success of this program in the post season. There is plenty of untapped potential that we could see from him in 2018.

It may be early, but in 2018, a podium finish for this squad appears to be inevitable. Yet, the end goal of securing a national title may still be out of reach when you consider the competition.

I am, of course, referring to the Northern Arizona Lumberjacks.

With news that Matthew Baxter was granted one more season of eligibility by the NCAA, the Lumberjacks are now set to return to four of their top five (and five of their top six) from last year's title team. They lose only their 4th and 7th scorers from last year's NCAA Championships.

Theoretically, if NAU didn't run Matthew Baxter at last year's championship (he placed 2nd overall), then they STILL would have won the title by four points over Portland. That is how good this squad is.

So if you're Coach Smith, what do you do? Can his team, or any team, honestly take down NAU? The team he has assembled will be good, no doubt, and there are plenty of different line-up combinations he could try. Maybe he opts to bring in other JUCO transfers. Maybe he decides not to redshirt one or two of his star freshmen. Maybe he ignores the odds and simply goes for it all.

Or, maybe, he does absolutely nothing.

Nothing at all.

If you've read my material over the past year, you probably have an idea of what I'm talking about.

Yes, I am in fact, referring to a "Tank for the Title" mindset.

For those of you who aren't familiar with this mindset, the plan would be to essentially redshirt everyone you can to save eligibility for the next year and prepare to come back even stronger when other super star teams have graduated their top talent.

The plan was first made popular by Northern Arizona in 2015 when they redshirted their entire squad. They eventually came back to win it all in 2016. In the same year that Northern Arizona was pursuing a title, Furman was preparing an all-out redshirt effort of their own. Despite a poor finish at Nationals, the Paladins would still finish in the top 10 of our 2017 team rankings.

Now, the Wisconsin Badgers have caught on after they opted to redshirt Morgan McDonald and Olin Hacker in 2017 while also giving their elite recruiting class some very crucial race experience...just like NAU did in 2015.

If Iowa State wanted to emulate this plan, they very well could. In fact, they would only need to redshirt Nathan Rodriguez and John Knownes. Those two would be the only Cyclone athletes set to be out of eligibility for the 2019 season. Dan Curts has already used his redshirt season in cross country and will be out of eligibility after 2018 regardless if he runs or not.

Delaying a championship run until 2019 may sound crazy, but it's already worked out for one team and they are set to become a dynasty...

If Iowa State redshirted some (or most) of their squad in 2018, and came back full-strength in 2019, Northern Arizona would no longer have Matthew Baxter, Tyler Day, and Peter Lomong (their top three finishers from Nationals this past fall). The Wisconsin Badgers would no longer have Morgan McDonald. BYU would be without Rory Linkletter. Portland would have exhausted the eligibility of their top three finishers from last year's championship.

In the big picture, there would be no other team that would have the firepower, depth, and experience that Iowa State does.

Obviously, certain teams would expect improvements from their younger guys. It's a simple circle of life when it comes to stardom and fitness around the NCAA. By 2019, Oregon looks like they could be very real threats for the podium. The Ducks would most likely be the Cyclones biggest obstacle on the road to their 3rd NCAA Cross Country title. It would be their first since 1994.

It's a tricky game that Coach Smith must figure out. Trust in the guys you have to face a dynasty program like NAU now, or prepare for an all-out assault in 2019 that would leave the Cyclones as the potential favorites to hoist the trophy come November?

It's a question that we won't have the answer to for a very long time...