Cross Questions (Part Two)

Year after year, Coach Carlson has put together elite-level recruiting classes and helped Notre Dame become a powerhouse distance program. Despite a few bumps in the road last fall, the men from South Bend still put together a strong 8th place finish at the 2019 National Championships.
 

But is 2020 the year where it all comes together for them and they earn a spot on the podium?

Star low-stick Yared Nuguse is in his final year of eligibility, Kilrea and Jacobs are no longer inexperienced youngsters, Matthew Carmody has shown outstanding promise on the track, their depth is improving with each passing year, and a handful of top-tier talents are still waiting for their moment of greatness.

This year's group was already going to be great when you consider that they return their entire top seven, but there are also numerous underclassmen who could make the Irish far more competitive than they already are. Guys like Carter Cheeseman, Jake Renfree and Nick Mota all redshirted last fall while this year's recruiting class features Josh Methner, Carter Solomon, Robbie Cozean, and Lisandro Berry-Gaviria.

If there was a year for Notre Dame to unleash the full potential of their roster, this would be the year.

I'm sure this sounds like an outrageous take, especially for a historical powerhouse, but I think it's a fair question to ask. The Oregon women finished 26th in the nation last cross country season and truthfully didn't have much firepower outside of Susan Ejore (who didn't have her best day at Nationals).

According to TFRRS, this year's squad will be without Amanda Gehrich, Isabella Brauer, Philippa Bowden and Susan Ejore. That's a big hit for a team that was already finishing in the latter half of the national meet results.

Of course, it's important to note that there are still numerous talented women on this roster. Taylor Chiotti has put together a couple of encouraging performances, France native Alessia Zarbo has yet to make her college debut, and an underrated recruiting class -- which features Lydia Russell, Carly Corsinita and South Africa native Nicole Louw (among others) -- will be joining the program this fall.

There are more reinforcements on this team than some may realize, but inexperience can sometimes be a difficult aspect to manage and the loss of numerous veterans (including a key low-stick) won't exactly help.

I'm not ready to bet against the Oregon women just yet (history is on their side), but this is a team that we'll be watching during the fall months.

Last fall was a heart-breaker for the Gonzaga men. They had put together a respectable regular season and in most years, they would have qualified for the National Championships. However, a bizarre Kolas scenario ultimately left the 'Zags at home.

Despite a rough ending to the 2019 season, this year's team has the potential to be just as good (or better). The Bulldogs bring back their entire top seven in the fall of 2020 (according to TFRRS) with each athlete showing unique potential and plenty of room to improve.

James Mwaura is expected to be the star low-stick of this team while Peter Hogan can continue to solidify himself as a solid #2. However, it's the middle and backend portions of this lineup that will ultimately decide just how strong Gonzaga can be this year.

Time usually treats distance runners favorably and it would be surprising to see this team not cover some of the gaps within their top seven with an extra year of training under their legs.

Plus, there is no team in the country that is hungrier for revenge than Gonzaga.
 

I think it's fair to say that the UNC men will be much more competitive this fall than they have been in year's past. They'll be adding Thomas Ratcliffe to their lineup, returning a key scorer in Alex Milligan and introducing a strong recruiting class headlined by Foot Locker 3rd place finisher Patrick Anderson.

There are certainly talented athletes on this team and there are likely a few others who will benefit from training under Miltenberg for another year. Still, there are a plenty of questions as to who will fill what gaps in their lineup.

I don't see the Tar Heels being a national qualifying team in the fall of 2020, but this could be the year where they take a major step forward and get closer to that goal.

Personally, I think there is a lot to be excited about for the UNC women.

The team will be returning standout low-stick Paige Hofstad along with other respectable scorers such as Maddy Clahane and a pair of rising sophomores. The Tar Heels may also return Enyaeva Michelin who redshirted the fall of 2019. She finished 12th at the 2018 ACC Championships and 12th once more at the 2018 Southeast Regional Championships.

Yes, the Tar Heels will lose a key front-runner in Morgan Ilse, but the addition of a top-tier recruiting class (featuring Taryn Parks, Sarah Trainor and Ava Dobson) should do wonders for this team in the fall of 2020.

A lot has to go right if the UNC women want to qualify for Nationals. Certain scorers need to make significant jumps, the incoming recruiting class needs to have an immediate impact and someone needs to complement Hofstad as a true low-stick by the time the regional meet comes around.

Admittedly, that is a lot to ask for.

I'm not saying to pencil-in the Tar Heel women as national qualifiers just yet, but the potential is there for them to do something special.

The Washington men will be without Andrew Jordan, Jack Rowe and Julius Diehr this year while the Stanford men will no longer have Alex Ostberg, Thomas Ratcliffe or Steven Fahy. As a result, these two teams will need to rely on the superstar recruits that they have secured over the past few years in order to stay competitive.

For Stanford, this will be a great opportunity to see how last year's recruiting class handles the responsibility of scoring points for the team. Between Liam Anderson, Ryan Oosting, Charles Hicks, Devin Hart and Evan Burke, there is a lot of untapped potential on this Stanford roster. The idea of one of these guys becoming a star low-stick this season isn't totally out of the question.

And what about Cole Sprout and Thomas Boyden? The two incoming freshmen were superstars at the high school level and will be remembered as key figures in the legendary class of 2020. If they aren't redshirted, they could make an appearance in the Cardinal's top seven come October.

As for Washington, their roster casualties weren't quite as severe as Stanford's were this offseason, but last year's team had some issues with consistency. In the fall of 2020, Coach Powell will likely look towards his group of 2019 recruits to fill in the gaps that developed last year.

Luke Houser showed plenty of promise on the indoor oval (7:58 3k), Sam Tanner now has a season of cross country experience under his belt, Sam Affolder and Joe Waskom have yet to make their college debuts, and the incoming recruiting class features two of the country's best high school distance runners (Leo Daschbach and Cruz Culpepper).

Overall, I would expect both of these PAC-12 programs (specifically Stanford) to rely heavily on their underclassmen in the fall of 2020. They were all superstars in high school, but this season will be a test to see how effectively they have transitioned to the collegiate stage.
 

A lot of people will look at UCLA's results from last year and think that I'm crazy. The team was headlined by All-American Christina Rice, but the rest of the squad lacked scoring potency, resulting in a massive gap between Rice and the rest of UCLA's top seven. The Bruins went on to finish 8th at PAC-12's last year.

However, this year's group will likely be far better than what we saw in 2019. The team will be returning both Erika Adler and Monica Heber.

Adler was a 2018 individual cross country national qualifier who was essentially sidelined last year while Hebner was a Duke transfer from last summer who qualified for the 2019 outdoor national meet in the 10k as a freshman. Those two women -- paired with Christina Rice -- could make for a lethal trio of scorers, although Hebner will need to replicate her freshman year success on the grass.

The firepower, however, doesn't stop there. Incoming freshman Carlie Dorostkar had an outstanding senior season this past fall, running 16:45 for 5000 meters (on the grass) and placing 6th in an absolutely loaded NXN field. She doesn't have to be a low-stick scorer like Rice, but she'll at least offer plenty of scoring stability and a ton of upside.

Admittedly, there are still questions as to what the rest of this lineup will look like. Who will fill in that final scoring spot? How will Dorostkar fare in her first year of collegiate competition? Will the trio of Hebner, Adler and Rice be as good as we think they can be?

The Bruins still have a lot to prove, but don't be surprised if/when they emerge as a top-ranked team in the PAC-12 this fall.
 

The Syracuse women have always left me scratching my head. On paper, they have been one of the better teams in the country over the past two years. Unfortunately for them, they haven't been able to put it together at the Northeast regional meet.

The team will be losing two veterans from last year's team in Jordan Jacob and Madeleine Davison, but the Orange still return everyone else, including top scorers Amanda Vestri, Rachel Bonner and Laura Dickinson (who competed in only one race last fall). Syracuse will also introduce New York native Sarah Connelly -- the 19th place finisher at NXN -- to the team later this fall.

Once again, Syracuse has the potential to be a very competitive team on the national stage. But will they be able to get over the hump and into the national meet when the Northeast Regional Championships come around in November?

We'll just have to wait and see.
 

The Ivy League seems like a total mess, and not just because Brown cut their men's cross country and track teams.

On paper, the Princeton men should be considered as the top Ivy League team coming into this year, but they recently lost Conor Lundy and will likely rely on a handful of youngsters. We also thought that they were the Ivy League favorites last year before they were upset by Penn and Harvard.

The Penn Quakers return a handful of rising seniors, but also lose a good portion of last year's lineup to graduation. Harvard is a younger team and they are expected to bring back a good portion of last year's lineup. However, the loss of both Kieran Tuntivate and Will Battershill won't exactly help the Crimson this fall.

As for Columbia, they return nearly everyone from last year's varsity group...except top scorer and Ivy League champion Kenny Vasbinder who is out of cross country eligibility and on his way to Notre Dame as a graduate transfer.

Could the men from Yale actually be contenders for the conference title? According to TFRRS, they return their entire top seven from last year's Ivy League Championships which includes respectable talents such as Robert Miranda and Nick Dahl. They would need to make notable improvements to the backend of their lineup, but they could be quietly competitive this fall.

The Columbia women have been pretty competitive within the Ivy League over the last few years, but they'll be losing three of their top four from 2019. The Penn women are also in a similar position as they are expected to lose a handful of veterans.

Instead, this may be Harvard and Princeton's year to shine. Both teams lose only one woman from last year and have plenty of room to improve. They are also led by respectable front-runners Anna Juul (Harvard) and Melia Chittenden (Princeton) who can give their respective teams a spark in the scoring.

However, one team that needs more attention is the Yale Bulldogs. They were strong throughout the 2019 cross country season and went into the Ivy League Championships with upset potential. But that didn't happen. Instead, the Yale women dropped to 5th place overall.

This year's team will lose Jane Miller (who is going to Arizona State as a graduate transfer), but top returner Kayley DeLay is the defending Ivy League champion and will be leading a team that is bringing back almost everyone else from last year.

The Yale women can be one of the more competitive squads in the Ivy League this fall, but they'll need to find some additional scoring potency to pair with Kayley DeLay if they want to compete for the conference title.
 

Despite earning a spot on the podium at last year's national meet, the New Mexico women showed the country that depth was going to be an issue for them in the fall of 2020. Although the Lobos were competitive throughout the regular season, the early-season absence of Adva Cohen left them vulnerable to excessive scoring.

Now, with Ednah Kurgat out of eligibility, New Mexico will need to find a suitable replacement in order to stay in contention for another All-American podium finish.

Women like Alexandra Harris and Gracelyn Larkin showed plenty of promise throughout last fall (i.e. Mountain West Championships) and could make notable improvements in 2020. However, trying to replace the full scoring potency that we saw from Kurgat over the last few years doesn't seem entirely realistic.

Of course, this entire conversation will become moot if Coach Franklin finds a superstar recruit or transfer and quickly remedies the problem of replacing Kurgat's scoring presence.

Until then, the New Mexico women will be one of the more interesting teams to watch this cross country season.

One of the most interesting aspects of the 2019 cross country season was seeing the women of the BIG 10 overwhelm the rest of the country. A jaw-dropping total of eight women's team ended up qualifying for the national meet last year which was three more than the always-loaded PAC-12 conference.

And in 2020, the BIG 10 will likely be just as deep.

Michigan State loses a few middle lineup scorers from last year, but may have been one of the deepest teams in the country last fall.

Michigan loses a couple of scorers, but will largely improve with the addition of Katelynne Hart and the return of experienced veterans.

The Wisconsin women lost two top-tier talents in Alicia Monson and Amy Davis, but brought in Brogan MacDougall to make up for some of that scoring.

Minnesota returns everyone from their lineup last fall and brings back two star front-runners in the Hasz twins.

The Indiana women will lose only one runner from last year and greatly benefit from a year of experience after fielding a lineup at the 2019 national meet which consisted of one senior, one sophomore and five freshmen.

Illinois, led by rising seniors Rebecca Craddock and Allison McGrath, will return everyone from last year's team. Nearly all of their returners will be experienced upperclassmen in 2020.

Penn State loses only one runner from last year's squad, returns a few respectable front-runners and should see improvement from the backend of their 2019 lineup which was scattered with inexperienced underclassmen at the time.

The only team that may have some difficulty qualifying for the national meet (again) this year is Ohio State. They were one of the final few teams to qualify for the National Championships in 2019 and are losing key scorers such as Lainey Studebaker and Julia Rizk.

Even so, the Buckeyes are still bringing back Abby Nichols (a near All-American) and return a unique mix of rising sophomores and rising seniors.