Chris Caudillo Has Announced His Final Four

In an alternate world where Newbury Park High School doesn't exist, one could argue that Clovis High School senior, Chris Caudillo, would be viewed as the most talented prep runner in the state of California.

The dynamic distance running superstar has posted times of 1:54 (800), 4:03 (1600), 4:05 (mile), 8:45 (3200), 8:54 (two miles), 14:09 (three miles XC) and 14:53 (5k XC). Caudillo also owns a state title in the 1600 meters, was the 2021 NXR California region champion last fall and is currently listed as our TSR #10 recruit in the nation.

On Saturday, Caudillo announced via Instagram the final four schools that he'll be considering before making his official commitment "within this next week."

Below, we walk through each of Caudillo's final candidates and discuss what a commitment to one of those programs could mean over the long-term. Let's begin...

Earlier this summer, the Cal Poly Mustangs stunned the NCAA by hiring Ole Miss distance coach, Ryan Vanhoy. The former coach of the Rebels turned the Ole Miss men and women from an unexciting SEC participant to a modern-day powerhouse.

And in Vanhoy's first season with the Mustangs, despite having zero influence on the current construction of this roster, the Cal Poly men have suddenly become a team that is in the conversation to potentially qualify for this year's cross country national meet.

In a piece for MileSplit that I wrote earlier this summer, I was able to speak with Vanhoy about the recruiting strategy that he would have with the Mustangs. And during that conversation, the former Ole Miss coach explained how he was already talking to some high-level California-based recruits.

Maybe Caudillo was one of those recruits...

Landing a talent like Caudillo would be huge for the Cal Poly men. The Mustangs are already showing tons of promise on the grass and despite losing low-stick ace Jake Ritter after this fall (according to TFRRS), the Mustangs could be just as good in 2023 with Chris Caudillo in this lineup -- even if he'll only be a freshman.

But more importantly, Caudillo committing to Cal Poly would give the Mustangs recognizable star power and a true long-term identity, effectively signaling the true start of the Vanhoy era in terms of roster makeup.

And if Caudillo does choose Cal Poly, then his commitment could capture the interest of other high-level prep stars. In many ways, Caudillo could be the next Waleed Suliman -- someone who strays from the norm and decides to join an up-and-coming program with a coach who has proven to be an elite developer of talent.

One could argue that Vanhoy's main coaching specialty lies in the middle distance events. And when you consider how strong Caudillo has been in the 1600 meters and the mile, owning personal bests of 4:03 and 4:05, respectively, this might be a perfect pairing.

In terms of skillset, Caudillo may have actually mimic former Ole Miss stars such as Waleed Suliman and Mario Garcia Romo fairly well. Those two men were primarily milers, but being cross country All-Americans is a main highlight of their respective resumes.

The Northern Arizona men have reached a point where we simply have to assume that most of the top distance recruits in the nation will consider the Lumberjacks.

And for Caudillo, that seems to be the case.

Geographically speaking, NAU is a fairly obvious choice for this Clovis High School senior. Outside of Stanford, there isn't necessarily another true distance running powerhouse in the southwest portion of the country other than the men in Flagstaff, Arizona.

Although, in fairness to other schools, both Cal Poly and UCLA are now under new leadership and have shown some early promise.

Outside of NAU's incredible reputation for developing elite distance stars, they have also been able to recruit former Newbury Park standouts such as Colin Sahlman and Nico Young, two men who Caudillo is likely familiar with.

Could that familiarity play any role in the Lumberjacks eventually landing a commitment from the Clovis High School superstar?

But more importantly, the NAU men are probably banking heavily on landing Caudillo.

While the men from Flagstaff have already earned a commitment from Zack Munson, our TSR #22 recruit, they also missed out on signing the Young twins (which was a surprise). There's also no guarantee that Aaron Sahlman, our TSR #4 recruit, will choose NAU.

To be clear, Northern Arizona will be just fine over the long-term even if they don't land Caudillo, Sahlman or any additional highly-ranked distance talents. One recruiting cycle, no matter how bad or how good, does not define a team.

But 2022 feels like a pivotal recruiting year for the Lumberjacks. There was a realistic chance that NAU could have earned commitments from Leo Young, Lex Young and Aaron Sahlman as well as a few other names.

However, both Leo and Lex are heading to Stanford, leaving the Lumberjacks with far less future scoring potency that many distance running fans assumed that they had locked-down. And if Sahlman opts to go elsewhere, then Caudillo's decision becomes even more important for the Northern Arizona men.

But when it comes to Caudillo's greatest strengths, the NAU men are an excellent fit for this California native. With an 8:45 personal best of 3200 meters and solid cross country success, Caudillo is clearly an aerobic-centric talent who also boasts outstanding mile prowess.

The Lumberjacks have historically focused on the 3000 meters, the 5000 meters, the 10,000 meters and cross country. However, NAU has also had plenty of success in the 1500 meters and the mile, even if they don't always pursue those events in the postseason.

And with a current 4:05 personal best in the mile, Caudillo could continue to showcase the greatest aspects of his high school resume while in Flagstaff, Arizona.

Out of the four teams listed here, Chris Caudillo's college commitment is arguably the most important for Oklahoma State.

The Cowboys are (and have been) a distance running powerhouse. In fact, they may have an outside chance of winning the cross country national title in a few weeks time.

 But after this season, Oklahoma State is expected to lose All-American superstar Isai Rodriguez (due to expired eligibility) and they might also lose fellow All-American Shea Foster (who has not yet raced this fall).

The good news, however, is that superstar ace Alex Maier still has an extra year of cross country eligibility and the rest of the men in this varsity group are listed as freshmen or sophomores (per TFRRS).

And when you consider that Oklahoma State put nine men in the top-15 at the BIG 12 XC Championships this past weekend, the future of this program looks VERY bright.

The Cowboys undoubtedly have elite depth that could materialize into a potent group of scorers. But with Rodriguez, likely Foster and eventually Maier all on their way out, there is a clear need for future firepower on this Oklahoma State roster.

Admittedly, is no guarantee that Caudillo is going to be a cross country superstar or even an All-American at the NCAA level. However, it's abundantly clear that he at least has the raw talent to (eventually) be a legitimate low-stick for a podium squad.

And with Caudillo theoretically getting two-ish years to develop before the rest of this Oklahoma State varsity lineup exhausts their cross country eligibility, the timing couldn't be more perfect for him to make his commitment to the Cowboys.

It also wouldn't hurt to have a standout distance recruit join Oklahoma State before BYU joins the BIG 12 in the next few years.

Not only that, but Oklahoma State has been outstanding when it comes to balancing the mile and the longer distance events. Guys like Fouad Messaoudi, Ryan Schoppe and Alex Maier have all been electric in the mile, running well under 4:00 (or under a 1500 meter equivalent) while also throwing down incredible times in 3000 meters, the 5000 meters and 10,000 meters.

And for a guy like Caudillo who has run 4:05 (mile) and 8:45 (3200), there are a lot of similarities between him and Schoppe who continues to get better with each season.

The Texas men are the fourth and final team in the running to land Chris Caudillo, although don't mistaken that as a reflection of their chances to earn his commitment. On paper, the Longhorns are just as good of a fit for this high school star as Oklahoma State is.

Admittedly, the conversation about the Texas men in relation to Chris Caudillo would be slightly different if Oklahoma State wasn't in the picture.

The Cowboys are likely going to be winning BIG 12 cross country titles for the foreseeable future, or at least until the BYU men enter the conference.

But in an effort to remain more competitive at the top of the conference, the Longhorns would greatly benefit from landing a true high school star with low-stick potential. And more importantly, they would also benefit from taking away a potential low-stick from their rival, Oklahoma State.

However, if the Oklahoma State men have such a bright future, then how much brighter is the future of the Texas men? How many of their current varsity talents will still be on the team if Caudillo joins the program next year? And what about his sophomore year?

Well, barring a series of unexpected transfers, almost all of the Texas' scorers will still be on this team by the time Caudillo enters the NCAA.

At the BIG 12 XC Championships, 10 Longhorns toed the line. Of those 10 men, eight of them are listed as underclassmen (per TFRRS) while Haftu Knight and Crayton Carrozza are both currently listed as juniors.

And while the Oklahoma State men were very clearly the better team on Friday, the Texas men still boasted a promising core of upper-echelon scorers, including three guys who finished in the top-10.

All of this is to say that the future of Texas cross country looks very promising. However, that optimism could turn from "promising" to "exciting" with a commitment from Chris Caudillo. Like we've said before, there's no guarantee that he'll be superstar talent on the grass, but he at least has a shot of reaching that point.

And if you were to pair that potential with the untapped upside of this roster, then the Texas men could be a far scarier team than some may realize.

On the track, the Texas men have achieved plenty across most of the distance events. However, over the last few years, the Longhorns have arguably been the best middle distance program in the country with the possible exception of Ole Miss.

The 800 meters, the mile and the DMR have been marquee events for the men from Austin, Texas, showing off an unreal combination of depth and firepower. And for a 4:05 miler like Chris Caudillo, that has to be an appealing quality about the program.

However, former distance coach Pete Watson is now gone, opting to take the Director role at Boston College earlier this year. In his place is former Washington coach, Greg Metcalf.

Metcalf has a very good history of developing high-level distance talents, including numerous national-caliber milers. In fact, the newest Texas distance coach was responsible for guiding former Husky star, Izaic Yorks, to a 3:53 mile PR before Yorks joined Brooks Beasts to pursue a professional career.

Chris Caudillo's mile prowess should, in theory, pair well with the skillset that we've seen from many of these Longhorn men. However, it will be interesting to see if Metcalf chooses to alter the direction of this program over time, potentially becoming more distance oriented and therefore less middle distance-centric.

That, of course, is just speculation, but Caudillo is dynamic enough to thrive in either setting.