TSR Collaboration

Feb 18, 202115 min

Battle Born XC Challenge Preview

With only a few weeks remaining until the NCAA XC Championships on March 15th, some of the nation’s top cross country programs are flocking to Las Vegas. These teams will be toeing the line for the Battle Born Collegiate Challenge in an effort to make their case to the NCAA selection committee as to why they deserve a spot on the line in Stillwater, Oklahoma.

Below, we broke down the men's and women's fields, offering analysis as to what we could potentially expect from some of the nation's top entries.


Women's Preview

Written by Maura Beattie

How Will New Mexico Fare With a New-Look Lineup?

The Lady Lobos now longer have the elite scoring services of Weini Kelati this year after the 2019 NCAA cross country champion decided to forgo her remaining collegiate eligibility and turn professional. This, along with All-American Hannah Nuttall graduating, has admittedly left the New Mexico women with some supposed gaps in their scoring lineup, at least on paper.

That, however, doesn't mean that this program doesn't have numerous other weapons.

The New Mexico women (TSR #8) will be led by Adva Cohen (TSR #27) who was the 43rd place finisher at the 2018 cross country national meet and the 55th place finisher at the 2019 cross country national meet. However, one could argue that she is actually better than what those results suggest.

Cohen has been a name mentioned numerous times when talking about the top NCAA talents as she is an accomplished steeplechaser who also owns a 15:31 (5k) personal best. The distance running veteran will be heavily relied upon to lead this team as she has the necessary resume to give her a top-five individual finish on Friday.

Joining Cohen up-front will likely be recent Xavier graduate transfer Anna Kostarellis and recent Southern Methodist graduate transfer Hannah Miller.

Kostarellis jumped onto the scene during the 2019 cross country season in a big way when she placed 2nd at the BIG East XC Championships and later qualified for the national meet, finishing 66th in her first appearance on the national stage.

As for Miller, she hasn’t competed in a cross country race since 2018, but she has competed at the national cross country meet three times, qualifying individually in each instance. In theory, her extensive championship experience on the grass and respectable times on the oval should put her in the same tier as Kostarellis and Cohen.

Those three women could make a big impact for New Mexico this weekend, offering firepower that would solidify the Lobos as a top-10 team in the nation. However, what about their depth? Depending on the season, that has sometimes been a challenge for this program as they have often relied on their top-heavy lineup to lead them to success.

So who are some of the lineup options that New Mexico will utilize on Friday?

Freshman Samrawit Dishon was a star talent in Colorado during her prep career, picking up All-American honors on the grass. Meanwhile, Norwegian freshman Andrea Engesaeth will race in her first collegiate event and could be amongst the top of this varsity group given her current 3k personal best of 9:20.

Redshirt Australian freshman Amelia Mazza-Downie hasn’t competed for the Lobos yet, but ran personal bests of 9:09 for the 3000 meters and 15:59 for 5000 meters earlier in her prep career. If she is able to replicate some of her best performances on the grass, then she could be a true x-factor for this team and make the final results far closer than some people are expecting.

Other key names like Gracelyn Larkin, Ali Upshaw and Celeste Martinez will also be toeing the line on Saturday.

The Lobos aren’t exactly rebuilding. Instead, they're reloading. Although this will be their first race of the season, Coach Joe Franklin knows how to prepare his athletes for success and stellar performances as past history shows. We feel relatively confident that New Mexico will be competitive with the nation's top-ranked teams on Friday.

We'll be fascinated to see what this team looks like in a post-Kelati and Kurgat era.

Stanford vs Colorado: Round Two

Two weeks ago at the FSU Winter XC Classic, the Stanford women (TSR #2) put together a respectable performance, having Ella Donaghu pick up the individual win while freshman Zofia Dudek raced to 3rd place finish in her first-ever collegiate competition.

However, even with Julia Heymach placing 10th overall, the Cardinal weren’t able to hold off the Colorado Buffaloes (TSR #5) and finished runner-up as a team, only five points out of the top spot. In our eyes, that results was considered to be an early-season upset.

Donaghu (TSR #2) continues to impress after a brilliant 2019-2020 campaign. The Stanford star opened up her winter cross country season with a two second win over Iowa State’s Cailie Logue and seems locked-in to potentially secure yet another win on Friday. Meanwhile, Dudek looked far better that we expected her to in her collegiate debut while Heymach's fitness from the track seems to have carried over rather well to the grass.

However, one of the biggest pieces to watch in this Stanford lineup is Jessica Lawson (TSR #10) who had a minor "off" day in Florida a few weeks back. When she's at her best, Lawson is in the conversation to finish in the top-three alongside Donaghu and now also Dudek.

In the grand scheme of things, Lawsons was the difference-maker between Stanford winning their last meet and finishing 2nd overall. With the rust now shaken off, the Stanford ace should be able to earn a top finish in this field. If that were to happen, then the Cardinal should have enough firepower to fend off Colorado's extensive depth...right?

Even though a 2nd place team finish is nothing to be disappointed about, Stanford will need Lawson and recent Northwestern graduate transfer Aubrey Roberts to race to their full potential to redeem themselves against Colorado.

We're not sure if Jordan Oakes is in top form after finishing 18th in the "B" race at the FSU Winter XC Classic and there are also questions as to how Grace Connolly and Abi Archer will fare in their second races of the season. Connolly held her own last time out, finishing 34th overall while Archer, the 53rd place finisher at the 2019 cross country national meet, faltered to 112th.

Lawson's performance may have been a major factor that allowed Colorado to upset Stanford, but the women from Boulder may feel a little disrespected with their TSR ranking following their win and may be hungry to prove themselves once more.

The Buffaloes look like a complete lineup with low-stick Rachel McArthur (TSR #16) beginning to really find her groove. McArthur had posted respectable finishes since joining the Colorado women, but her recent 5th place finish at the FSU Winter XC Classic shows us that she is on the cusp of something big heading into this race and into the championship portion of the season.

Not only that, but seeing Micaela Degenero, a graduate transfer from Michigan, finish 12th in her last race, was a pleasant surprise. The redshirt senior was a reliable scorer for the Wolverines, but she had never displayed scoring potency like what we saw from her a few weekends ago. If she's able to replicate that kind of performance or even improve upon it, then Colorado will be able to counter at least some of Stanford's firepower.

Emily Covert, Elizabeth Constein, and Abby Nichols will need to continue to work together to displace the other Cardinal runners, specifically at the backend of Stanford's lineup.

Nichols was nearly an All-American during the 2019 cross country season and Covert ran very well in her first-ever collegiate cross country race in a Colorado singlet. We believe that those two still have room to improve and if that is actually the case, then this race might actually come down to which team has the better depth rather than which team has the better low-sticks.

How will the Washington women perform with an (almost) full lineup?

At the Silver State XC Challenge, the Washington Huskies (TSR #6) raced only a small portion of their roster, but at the Battle Born Collegiate Challenge, the Huskies are coming out with many of their biggest and best weapons.

Melany Smart (TSR #7) and Allie Schadler (TSR #30) will be making their much anticipated winter cross country debuts. As a freshman, Smart immediately made her presence known as she continuously placed in the top-five in some of the most competitive meets in the nation before finishing her season with a 12th place finish at the NCAA Championships.

Despite how highly we view Smart, we haven't seen her race since last winter. How will she fare in her first race back in almost a year? Will any opening-season rust play a role in how she performs?

Of course, the complete opposite could be said for Allie Schadler who has been on a roll since recording a new personal best of 15:33 (5k) back in December.

So far this winter on the indoor oval, the Washington ace has recorded times of 4:38 mile and 8:58 (3k) -- the latter being a new personal best. When it comes to her past cross country experience, Schadler was a consistent and reliable scorer during the 2019 cross country season, but struggled at the 2019 national meet.

Even so, her growth over the last year has been very impressive and based on what we have seen from her so far, she should be in the mix for a top finish amongst some of the best women in this field.

That lethal 1-2 punch of Smart and Schadler will likely be supported by rising talents Haley Herberg and Naomi Smith who paced Washington at their last meet. Both of those women each finished in the top-six of that race. If they can finish alongside one another and avoid any significant gaps between them, Smart and Schadler, then the Huskies could very easily contend with the likes of Colorado, Stanford and New Mexico.

Now, admittedly, not having Taylor Chiotti, Shona McCulloch or Kirstie Rae toeing the line this weekend makes us wonder how the Huskies' depth will handle this top-heavy field featuring teams that boast extensive firepower.

Friday's race will give us a better idea of what the supporting cast for the Washington women could look like in the postseason if that aforementioned trio doesn't race this winter.

A Boise State vs Northern Arizona Rematch

Boise State (TSR #17) and Northern Arizona (TSR #15) were only separated by three points with the Broncos coming out on top at the Silver State XC Challenge, finishing 2nd and 3rd, respectively. However, this time around, the end results could be very different.

The Broncos surprised us a bit in their last race as we didn't expect them to have a true front-runner. That assumption, however, was flat-out wrong.

Graduate student Tyler Beling (TSR #43) caught our attention when she finished 3rd overall, only four seconds out from the win. Her performance was a major reason why the Broncos did so well, but we'll be interested to see how the South Africa native performs in a field that will have many more top-ranked individuals compared to last time.

Besides Beling contributing only three points to the Broncos' team score, Boise State’s depth continued to play a crucial role (just as we expected) at the Silver State XC Challenge. Olivia Johnson finishing 7th was extremely encouraging while their final three scorers placed 14th, 18th and 19th. That was enough to fend off an NAU team which didn't have the same secondary scorer that Johnson was for Boise State.

The Broncos will need to maintain a tight pack yet again this weekend if they want to take down the Lumberjacks once more. Beling's low-stick scoring will be increasingly more important in this field and the emergence of Johnson could help Boise State counter a potential new scorer that Northern Arizona may be adding to their lineup on Friday...

Not only will the Northern Arizona women have Taryn O’Neill (TSR #33) in this race, but the addition of Jessa Hanson to the lineup could be a massive difference maker.

O’Neill has been great and based on her last few performances on both the grass and track, she looks like an even better version of her 2019 self when she finished 20th at Nuttycombe. However, from a team perspective, Hanson might be the biggest game-changer on Friday.

Hanson, a junior, wasn’t posting many top finishes in 2019, but in December, she posted an outstanding 10k time of 32:47 at the Sound Running Track Meet. A performance like that suggests that Hanson can slide into the second or third scoring spots of this lineup. If that were to happen, then Northern Arizona would likely gain an edge over Boise State.

Behind that 1-2 punch comes a strong pack featuring Delaney Rasmussen, Pipi Eitel, Bryn Morley, Hannah Behunin, Annika Reiss and Jesselyn Bries, many of whom are interchangeable in this varsity lineup. Many of these women have national-level experience and have been instrumental in the recent growth of the Lumberjack women over the past few years.

With a potential new low-stick and extensive, reliable depth, the Northern Arizona women could end up being a lot more competitive in this field than some people realize.

What should we expect from Utah?

At the Silver State XC Challenge, Poppy Tank opened up her winter cross country season with a respectable 8th place finish. That was solid result for our TSR #36 runner who was shaking off the rust and coming back from an injury. We think she could be even better this weekend.

However, Utah as a whole faltered in the team results at the Silver State XC Challenge, something that was somewhat expected given how many scorers the Utes were without. Luckily for Utah, they're bringing back a top-ranked name in Bella Williams (TSR #39).

Despite that valuable lineup addition, the Utah women will still be without a key scorer in Cara Woolnough as well as Ellie Lundgreen and Trina Moreno (based on the entries). After a tough team outing a few weeks ago, it will be crucial for the Utes to post a strong finish this weekend in order to build a favorable-enough case that they deserve to go to the NCAA XC Championships.

Breaking down the individual favorites

The individual race is just as enticing as the team race. With the Stanford trio of Donaghu, Dudek and Lawson set to face off against the Washington duo of Smart and Schadler, along with standout front-runners like McArthur and Cohen, anything could happen.

Donaghu is the favorite based on her resume, but teammate Zofia Dudek has proven she is a top talent even without collegiate experience. If she is able to pick up enough momentum from her last race, then she may end up being a problem for her competitors on Friday.

Smart and Schadler will need to get past the fact that this is a rust-busting cross country race for them, but they have rarely had poor races and it's hard to imagine either of them having an "off" day tomorrow.

Quick Hits

  • Alison Pray (Southern Utah) is coming off a strong 16th place finish at the FSU Winter XC Classic after recording a DNF at the Dixie State XC Invitational. Pray earned an impressive 5th place finish at the Oklahoma State Invitational in the fall (one spot behind McArthur) and has the potential to compete with the top ladies in this race if she brings her best.

  • Freshman Tierney Wolfgram (Nevada) was in the headlines last year for her women’s American Junior marathon record. However, during her high school career, Wolfgram was one of the more respectable distance talents in the nation, emerging as a Foot Locker All-American via a 7th place finish back in 2017. Although she may not be leading this field, Wolfgram could place in the top-20.

Final Predictions

Teams

1. Stanford Cardinal

2. Colorado Buffaloes

3. Washington Huskies

4. New Mexico Lobos

5. Northern Arizona Lumberjacks

Individuals

1. Ella Donaghu (Stanford)

2. Zofia Dudek (Stanford)

3. Melany Smart (Washington)

4. Taryn O’Neill (Northern Arizona)

5. Tyler Beling (Boise State)

6. Rachel McArthur (Colorado)

7. Allie Schadler (Washington)

8. Poppy Tank (Utah)

9. Jessica Lawson (Stanford)

10. Adva Cohen (New Mexico)


Men's Preview

Written by Ben Weisel

What does Northern Arizona look like at full strength?

At the Silver State Collegiate Challenge, the Lumberjacks looked like the team to beat once again despite losing to BYU. Why? Well, because they held out their best runner, Luis Grijalva, and two other potential scorers in Drew Bosley and Theo Quax.

Now, all three of those men are entered to run on Friday along with everyone else who raced previously. On paper, this team just looks impossible to beat (of course, we said that last year and look what happened).

BYU looks even better than they did last year when they won the national title, but Northern Arizona just has too many pieces to not be seen as the overall favorites, especially with Nico Young running as well as he recently did.

With so many key names set to return to this lineup, we think the Lumberjacks could take home this win somewhat easily despite having to face the likes of Colorado and Stanford. Still, it will be interesting to see how this varsity lineup is structured as near the postseason.

How will Stanford's young, up-and-coming lineup perform against elite powerhouse programs?

Stanford exploded onto the scene in their first race of the 2020-21 school year at the FSU Winter XC Classic. Led by two runners making their Cardinal debut, Cole Sprout and Charles Hicks, the team convincingly beat a strong field that included Iowa State and Colorado.

Going up against much stronger competition in Northern Arizona, we'll be curious to see if the young Cardinal lineup can once again look as potent as they were a few weeks ago. Stanford had an incredibly strong top four in their last outing and although there was a gap between that top four and their fifth runner, the Cardinal actually had the best fifth (and sixth) scorers in that field.

However, the main focus will be on Sprout and Hicks. This race will give us a better understanding of just how much firepower they can bring to their team at a meet like the PAC-12 Championships or the NCAA Championships.

Finishing close to some of the Lumberjacks' top scorers or staying just as competitive with Colorado's Herrera and Hornecker will bring us greater certainty as to the scoring potency that they can provide to this Stanford team throughout the rest of the year.

How will Colorado continue to fare w/o Kashon Harrison?

The Buffaloes will once again be without one of their top runners, Kashon Harrison, as he is not entered in the meet. Colorado put together an impressive performance without him at the FSU Winter XC Classic, tying with Iowa State, but they finished far behind Stanford.

Eduardo Herrera has looked incredible this year and Alec Hornecker looked like a steady front-running All-American candidate during his race in Tallahassee. The growth of youngsters like Hunter Appleton and Jace Aschbrenner will be incredibly important for the Buffaloes as they try to improve their backend scoring, especially with Mississippi State graduate transfer Stephen Jones out with an injury.

Colorado looks like the clear 3rd place team in this field behind Northern Arizona and Stanford. They have the necessary low-sticks in Herrera and Hornecker to hang with these teams, but their depth is something that may hold them back, especially with a top-ranked talent like Kashon Harrison expected to be absent during Friday's race.

Trying to figure out the rest of this field

With plenty of solid teams following that top three, this will likely be a close race between Washington State, Southern Utah, California Baptist and Colorado State as to who finishes 4th overall.

Washington State has yet to run this cross country season, but they have thrown down some very impressive track times so far this winter. Amir Ado, who has traditionally been strong on the grass, is set to return, but he will also be joined by Zach Stallings who has recently run 3:58 and 8:02 this year.

Although the Cougars will be without Colton Johnsen, who has been on an absolute tear this indoor season, most recently running 3:57, the WSU men still have Matthew Watkins who just ran 14:17 as well as a few others.

It's tough to get a good idea as to what this Washington State varsity cross country lineup is going to look like, but there are a few respectable pieces scattered throughout this roster. If their recent performances on the indoor oval are indication as to how they will race this weekend, then we should be very high on them going into Friday.

We then come to Southern Utah and California Baptist, two teams that finished next to each other at the FSU Winter XC Classic and should be sharp after running in two cross country meets so far this season.

The Thunderbirds' top runners from years past (Aidan Reed, Christian Ricketts, Nate Osterstock) haven't been at their best so far this winter, but by no means have they been bad. They have some young up-and-coming runners in Santiago Gaitan and Travis Feeny who have given their team a boost this year and complemented the veterans on this roster.

Southern Utah isn't a perfect team, but they have a few respectable pieces. When everyone is clicking on all cylinders, this team is not easy to stop.

Then we have Colorado State who looked very strong against Wyoming in a dual meet a few weeks ago, but have yet to show much over the last few seasons. Eric Hamer has looked incredible on the track, but unfortunately for the Rams, he is out of cross country eligibility.

CSU looks to be on the rise given their youth and they are a historically strong program looking to rebound after losing so many talented pieces over the past few years. We'll be interested to see what this team looks like on Friday.

How does Nico Young compare to Luis Grijalva?

From the individual race perspective, it will be fascinating to see the top two runners for Northern Arizona go head-to-head. Young was incredible in his collegiate cross country debut as he nearly beat the top returner from last year’s NCAA XC Championship, Conner Mantz.

Grijalva, on the other hand, entered this year as the top runner in both our preseason indoor rankings and our cross country rankings. While he has not raced yet this season, we still anticipate that he will be the favorite to win the NCAA cross country title in Stillwater on March 15.

If Grijalva is, in fact, in top form, then how closely Young finishes to him will be a very interesting subplot to watch. For NAU’s title chances, a close finish for these two will likely guarantee that the Lumberjacks finish atop the podium once again. From the individual title perspective, a close finish between these two would further solidify Young as a title contender in his first season in Flagstaff.

If, however, Young beats Grijalva and wins the race, then we might have to close up shop because the internet will explode. The freshman phenom would enter NCAA’s in Stillwater as the favorite to win the race and still have four more years of eligibility remaining afterwards.

In other words, there's a ton of implications when it comes to the potential results that these two could produce.

Final Predictions

Teams

1. Northern Arizona Lumberjacks

2. Stanford Cardinal

3. Colorado Buffaloes

4. Southern Utah Thunderbirds

5. Washington State Cougars

Individuals

1. Luis Grijalva (Northern Arizona)

2. Nico Young (Northern Arizona)

3. Eduardo Herrera (Colorado)

4. Abdi Nur (Northern Arizona)

5. Cole Sprout (Stanford)

6. Blaise Ferro (Northern Arizona)

7. Charles Hicks (Stanford)

8. Alec Hornecker (Colorado)

9. Drew Bosley (Northern Arizona)

10. Alek Parsons (Stanford)

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