Admin (Garrett Zatlin)

Oct 10, 20184 min

ALL-TIM3 GRE4T

Updated: Jun 16, 2019

"Not one, not two, not three, not four...not five, not six...not seven..."

That was the statement made by LeBron James during his celebratory welcome party when he famously signed with the Miami Heat in 2010 (also known as "The Decision"). During that introduction, James wasn't counting how many other teams he entertained during free agency. He wasn't counting how many years he had been in Cleveland. He wasn't counting how many hundreds of millions of dollars he had/was going to accumulate over his career.

Instead, James was talking about championships. Potential titles that the Heat could win with him on their roster. The number seemed outrageous, yet somehow realistic, all at the same time.

When we talk about dynasties at an in-depth level, we usually think about more than just winning. We think about dominance. Not just over a year or two, but usually three (and often times more). It's the consistency - the unspoken discipline if you will - that turns a championship program into an all-time power.

There are few teams who fit that mold better than the Northern Arizona men.

* * *

Since 2016, the Lumberjacks have had full control of the NCAA. They have been, without question, the best squad in the nation. Even the collective talent of BYU and Portland have paled in comparison to what NAU has produced. In other words, it hasn't been close.

In 2018, Coach Smith's group will pursue their third-straight national title.

Their chances of repeating?

High.

Very high.

NAU's performance at Nuttycombe was jaw-dropping. They defeated an elite-level field by nearly 100 points without Matthew Baxter, someone who many believe could win individual gold in November (depending on who you ask). The thought that they could be even better with him in their lineup is a scary thing to think about...

It seems fair to say that most teams, athletes, and coaches have accepted the fact that NAU will win the national title (again) this fall. Of course, BYU (among others) might disagree. Unfortunately, we won't see an all-out battle between these two programs until November.

We just started the 2018-2019 academic year, but it's hard not to think about the future. When you evaluate graduates and returners, Northern Arizona won't be much worse compared to this fall. In fact, they'll still be favored to hoist the national trophy once more.

Winning Nuttycombe without Baxter by such a significant margin wasn't just important for this season. In fact, it likely told us more about NAU's 2019 squad than it does about their current group.

* * *

Of their five scorers from two weeks ago, Peter Lomong and Tyler Day will have expiring eligibility. Ferro, Grijalva, and Beamish will all return in 2019. Yes, the team also loses Baxter, but it's hard to forget that high school superstar Brodey Hasty is patiently waiting to make his collegiate debut. It may not be this season, but it's clear that he'll be an issue for opposing teams one year from now.

When we look ahead to next year, this team will likely still have the best top five in the NCAA and I'm not sure there are many teams who can argue against them. Let's say we remove Day and Lomong from the results and assume that Hasty finishes 20th at Nuttycombe next year. Let's also assume that everyone else maintains their finish (including opposing teams). If that was the case, NAU would post a score of 110 points and would still theoretically defeat Wisconsin by 25 points.

Yet, the most important aspect about the Lumberjacks title hopes in 2019 isn't necessarily about the men they lose, it's about the guys other teams lose. Not only will Northern Arizona maintain most of their scoring firepower, but the top programs around them will no longer have established stars.

BYU graduates three Top 50 runners, Portland loses Orndorf and Hauger, Stanford will no longer have Fisher, Wisconsin and McDonald will finally part ways, and Alabama will no longer have their star Kenyans (well, at least not all of them).

Colorado and Washington each graduate some key veteran scorers while Boise State graduates numerous men from their lineup. Even Iowa State, a team I expect to be back in the podium hunt for 2019, will still suffer from the departures of Festus Lagat* and Dan Curts.

*Lagat's eligibility for cross country may not be completely finished with rumors suggesting that the NCAA may grant him another year of eligibility due to the time he spent in JUCO.

So let's say NAU does win four consecutive titles. Are they the best team ever? Based on our Twitter poll, many of you think they'll be the best team ever after just three consecutive titles.

Baxter, Day, and Lomong have been the staple low-sticks of this program for quite some time now, so it's understandable that some people will question the viability of this group in 2019. But when you have this much success with so many young individuals, it's hard to imagine that they won't continue to improve.

* * *

Some people may think that this level of dominance is boring. That it doesn't bring any level of excitement to the team battle (and to a certain extent, that may be true). But what some people don't recognize is that history is being made. This level of dominance doesn't happen as often as it is happening now. That's why this season is uniquely special.

Only UTEP has ever won four straight titles. With #3 likely in the bag, #4 may be a very real possibility for the men from Flagstaff, Arizona.

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