2024 Bryan Clay Invitational Preview & Predictions (Part Three): Fouad Messaoudi Returns, Luke Houser's Season Debut, Oregon Women vs Billah Jepkirui, Margot Appleton & Flomena Asekol

The Bryan Clay Invitational has been a competitive meet for years now, emerging as a staple regular season meet for the NCAA's best distance runners around the country. However, it felt like the spring of 2022 was the season that truly cemented the Azusa Pacific-hosted meet as the top regular season destination for collegiate distance runners during the spring months.

But why? What happened that year?

Well, that was the year when Alabama's Eliud Kipsang ran a blistering 1500-meter time of 3:33.74, a new collegiate record (among record eligible performances). And since then, the 1500 meters has been the marquee racing distance at the Bryan Clay Invitational -- and in 2024, these entries do not disappoint.

Here's what you can expect in the invite sections of the men's and women's 1500-meter races on Saturday afternoon...

The top women's 1500-meter section at the Bryan Clay Invitational is shaping up to an absolutely incredible race. With an ideal mix of nationally competitive pro runners and some of the best pure milers in the NCAA, this metric mile battle could result in multiple all-time performances.

Let's start with the women who stand out the most in the entries: The Oregon Ducks.

The ladies from Eugene will be fielding Maddy Elmore, Klaudia Kazimierska and Silan Ayyildiz for Saturday's race. And on paper, that is a formidable trio.

Elmore owns personal bests of 4:30 (mile) and 4:08 (1500) -- two marks that may not even be indicative of her true potential this spring. Kazimierska owns personal bests of 4:07 (1500) and 4:30 (mile), although her top metric mile time in the NCAA is 4:08. As for Ayyildiz, she has produced times of 4:30 (mile) and 4:12 (1500), although that latter PR is due to be reset.

It would not come as a shock if all three of these women went under 4:10 in this race come Saturday. All three of these Ducks have shown positive improvement as of late and they are all true milers.

However, Elmore in particular is the one to watch. After running a huge 15:15 (5k) PR at the end of March, she'll be dropping down to her primary distance this weekend. In theory, that means that she could unleash a comparatively more impressive performance. And given her history of thriving in all-out, time trial settings, everything about Elmore's recent resume says that she could have a career-defining performance on Saturday.

But while the Oregon women will have the largest presence in this field, it's Oklahoma State's Billah Jepkirui who may be favored to emerge as the top collegian.

The Cowgirl sophomore has been running out of her mind throughout this academic year. Jepkirui thrived on the grass during the fall months and then went to the indoor oval where she threw down incredible marks of 4:27 (mile) and 8:46 (3k).

Saturday's 1500-meter race should be the absolute perfect setting for Jepkirui. She has thrived in multiple all-out affairs before, she arguably has the best aerobic strength of any collegian in this field (Elmore may disagree) and she peaked beautifully for the indoor national meet last month where she earned silver and secured her current mile PR.

In nearly every aspect, Jepkirui is a scary-good talent.

Virginia's Margot Appleton has been quietly awesome over the last month. After a "just okay" cross country season and a good, but unexciting, indoor track regular season, the Cavalier ace came through at the NCAA Indoor Championships. There, she snagged a clutch 5th place All-American finish in the mile which led to a new mile PR of 4:29.

But that performance wasn't just a fluke or an outlier when compared to the rest of her season -- Appleton truly did peak perfectly. We know that because she later went to the Raleigh Relays and posted a phenomenal 5000-meter PR of 15:18!

Much like Elmore and Jepkirui, this UVA star has the ideal mix of proven mile chops and outstanding aerobic prowess while still riding the high of her prior postseason peak from the winter months. And with a 4:08 (1500) PR, Appleton is due to reset her personal best.

The only question is...by how much?

The final collegian in the top 1500-meter section of this race is Flomena Asekol, the Alabama-turned-Florida ace who ran a stunning 4:26 PR in the mile this past winter. That's the fastest mile PR of any collegian in this field.

On paper, Asekol has a resume that's just as good as Elmore, Jepkirui and Appleton. In fact, her incredible range -- boasting times of 2:02 (800), 4:26 (mile), 8:52 (3k) and a 6th place finish at the 2023 NCAA XC Championships -- should theoretically allow her to thrive in almost any race scenario she encounters.

And in her two time trial settings that she was in during the winter months, Asekol delivered big-time, making her a legitimate threat to emerge as the top collegian this weekend.

Admittedly, the Gator ace isn't quite as consistent as we think she could be. But when it comes to races like these, Asekol shows up (and then some) more often than not.

With the exception of Adam Spencer and maybe one other, the collegians who are listed for the men's 1500 meters will essentially give us an NCAA Championship preview on Saturday.

That's because Luke Houser (Washington), Nathan Green (Washington), Joe Waskom (Washington), Fouad Messaoudi (Oklahoma State), Isaac Basten (Drake), Liam Murphy (Villanova) and Colin Sahlman (Northern Arizona) are all entered in this race.

Let's first begin our discussion with the Washington men, a famed trio that have dominated the mile and metric mile distances for almost two years now.

Luke Houser, the back-to-back NCAA mile champion, will be toeing the line for his first race of the season (he was technically a DNF at the Stanford Invite, but that was for pacing duties). However, unlike last month, this race isn't going to tactical -- it's going to be an all-out brawl.

Of course, just because Houser is one of the best tacticians in the NCAA doesn't mean that he can't hold his own in fast-from-the-gun efforts. After all, this is a guy who ran 3:51 (mile) and 7:40 (3k) this past winter, taking home wins over pro runners both times.

The Washington veteran is probably the most complete collegiate miler in this field and he has plenty of experience racing in loaded fields (which features pro runners) like what he'll see on Saturday. For the most part, it's hard to find any aspect of his resume or performances to critique.

Fellow teammates Nathan Green and Joe Waskom will also be in this field, although both men haven't looked their sharpest as of late. The former was unable to advance out of the 800-meter prelims at the indoor national meet and was recently upset by Ezekiel Rop at the Stanford Invite over 1500 meters. Waskom, meanwhile, has been running well, but not at a national title-caliber level, at least not for the last two months.

Regardless, no one should question the talent and ability of these two men who, like Luke Houser, are also national champions. Green's last two races have been more flukes than concerning developments and Waskom was still an All-American during the winter.

They may not blow you away on Saturday, but that shouldn't necessarily be their goal. As long as they are able to gain some momentum and build back to title-winning form, then that should be considered a major win.

However, despite allure that the Washington men hold, it's Oklahoma State's Fouad Messaoudi who may be the most interesting entrant in this field.

Last year, this Moroccan distance star was incredible, specifically during the 2023 indoor track season. He was tactically outstanding, his fitness was elite, he could respond to pretty much any move thrown at him and his range was fantastic.

Frankly, he was borderline untouchable.

But after a successful race at the 2023 NCAA XC Championships, Messaoudi was more or less missing during the winter months, posting two DNF results before oddly finishing a 3k race at the BIG 12 Indoor Championships where he placed 9th -- and that was less than two months ago.

A lot can change in a month-and-a-half, but this past winter wasn't exactly an encouraging development for someone who has proven to be so elite. Could he be back in top form this Saturday? Sure, that's certainly possible. But with recent evidence suggesting otherwise, it's hard to have any concrete expectations for Messaoudi going into Saturday.

And then we have Drake's Isaac Basten who (disclaimer) is employed by The Stride Report as the host of our interview series, Beyond the Stride.

Basten looked great during the winter months despite a somewhat limited racing schedule. A 3:53 mile PR after a cross country season littered with health challenges was an encouraging sign going into the national meet. However, the Bulldog star was tripped in the mile prelims at the NCAA Indoor Championships and (surprisingly) did not win his protest to advance to the finals.

Saturday will be Basten's first race back since that controversial fall. And in a field that features multiple NCAA elites, this tactical virtuoso likely wants to send a message to the rest of the country after a tough end to his winter campaign.

Don't forget, Basten has run 3:36.99 (1500) and 3:53 (mile) before. While most people know him for his brilliant tactics, positioning and finishing speed, the Drake veteran has also proven to be plenty fit as well.

Villanova's Liam Murphy and Northern Arizona's Colin Sahlman may be the last collegians who are being mentioned in this preview, but that doesn't mean that they will be less competitive than some of the names who we have already discussed.

Murphy and Sahlman are two very similar runners. Both men are known for their incredible range, but are often best at the mile distance. They do, after all, hold 3:53 mile personal bests.

Both of these men are capable of running 3:36 for 1500 meters this past weekend. However, I would go a step further with Murphy and say that he could, on a good day, run 3:35. His aerobic strength is simply greater than Sahlman's and his experience certainly won't hurt him.

In the end, I think that could make the Villanova veteran a contender to be the top collegian.

*Denotes that a collegian is also entered in another individual event. In these predictions, TSR is assuming that each runner is contesting an event fresh (i.e. not doubling back).