2023 Washington Invite Preview

Written by Grace McLaughlin, Gavin Struve, Scotty Loughlin & Maura Beattie

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NOTE: This article was crafted prior to the official heat sheets being released for the Washington Invite. As a result, certain sections of analysis have been omitted to reflect that certain runners are no longer listed in the entries.

Maura: Absolutely I do. Carley Thomas has already shown glimpses of her old self this season, particularly after running the mile at the Boston University Season Opener back in December.

The Washington half-mile ace recorded a 4:36 mile PR over a month ago, 10 seconds faster than her previous personal best. That strength was again on display in the 600 meters at the UW Preview when Thomas recorded a strong 1:28 mark, a top-10 NCAA time for this season.

Going into this weekend’s meet with a 2:01 PR from the winter of 2020 and a string of success since then, Thomas is the favorite to win her primary event...but the competition is still stiff.

Oregon's international standout Klaudia Kazimierska might be the runner to take down the home crowd favorite. Kazimierska has a 2:03 PR over 800 meters during August of last year and seems to be at her best in the middle distances.

Acclimating to the NCAA scene might still be in the works for the young Duck, but she has the raw talent and could pull off the inter-conference upset.

Scotty: Carley Thomas is BACK. As Maura mentioned, she has already opened up her season with a strong mile and a speedy 600 meter effort. She should be primed to take a win against this field in her best event -- the 800 meters.

Beyond the excellent form that she’s already shown, Thomas can also rely on her consistency and experience in this event. It's the intangibles that make her so dangerous.

Honestly, I expect Thomas to win somewhat comfortably, but I’ll also back up Maura’s pick of fellow conference rival Klaudia Kazimierska having the potential to pull off an upset.

Given Kazimierska’s excellence in the mile and semi-decent 3k prowess, it would be fascinating to see her instill a tactical risk of going out harder and relying on her strength. In theory, that could maybe be more beneficial rather than leaving the last 150 meters up to a kick, although she certainly has the turnover for that, too.

Still, my money is on Thomas taking this one in dominant fashion.

Grace: Thomas has already run a huge mile PR and a solid 600 meter time this season. Both marks indicate that she is back to her usual form. She has yet to give us a reason to doubt her, but the 800 meters is an unpredictable event and she will certainly have some fierce competition. That's why I don’t think she necessarily think that she has this race locked-in for the win.

While Kazimierska is a solid pick as the biggest challenger to Thomas, I actually think fellow Husky Marlena Preigh is the greatest threat to Thomas winning this race.

Preigh ran 1:29 for 600 meters at the UW Preview, a five-second PR and less than 0.3 seconds behind Thomas. Based on this performance, Preigh is set up for a huge 800 meter PR as well. And at this point in the season, Preigh may have more speed development and leg turnover than her competitors since she is coming from a 400/800 background.

Gavin: I may lean more modest on my estimation than others because I worry about placing unfair expectations on athletes who I, frankly, don’t know the early-season fitness level of and who may see 4:41 or 4:42 marks as an otherwise good day.

I feel very confident that Madison Heisterman, Laura Pellicoro, Simone Plourde and Izzy Thornton-Bott will each break the 4:40 barrier as they have all previously done so comfortably (Thornton-Bott ran her mark on an outdoor track).

In fact, you could argue that this race is a preview of sorts for the PAC-12 Championships (which don't officially exist on the indoor oval and are instead replaced by the PAC-12 Invite).

I would also add Oregon’s Ella Nelson to that group of possible sub-4:40 contenders given that she has some established middle distance speed and was solid in her lone cross country race this past fall. However, Nelson is also entered in the 800 meters, so that'll be an interesting development to watch.

I’ll settle with five women breaking the 4:40 barrier -- the four aforementioned names and one other quasi-wild card.

The breakdown of odds to win this race would look like Pellicoro at 30%, Plourde at 25%, Heisterman at 20%, Thornton-Bott at 20% and "other" at 5%. Pellicoro is probably the most consistent of the bunch and had an excellent cross country campaign. However, I also like Plourde too given that she is arguably at her best in the mile and is coming off of a strong cross country season of her own.

Maura: I’m going to guess that four women run a sub-4:40 mile this weekend in Seattle: Oregon’s Izzy Thornton-Bott, Utah’s Simone Plourde, Washington’s Madison Heisterman and Portland’s Laura Pellicoro.

And it just so happens that Gavin is also confident that these four women have a sub-4:40 mark incoming.

Izzy Thornton-Bott brings a solid mix of speed and endurance to the mile. In December of 2022, the Duck ace ran herself to a 4:35 outdoor mile PR in Australia. This result probably went unnoticed, but from here on out, she shouldn’t be overlooked.

Utah’s Simone Plourde will be making her season debut at Washington this weekend, but that doesn’t diminish her chances of breaking 4:40. The Ute star has a 4:36 mile PR from the 2022 indoor track season and has experience contesting for top spots and times against the best talents of the NCAA.

Plourde might not be the collegiate favorite, but she’s more than capable of a quick time.

With the home track advantage, Madison Heisterman will toe the line after already running 4:38 earlier this season. With a 4:33 mile PR, we can safely say that Heisterman likely has another sub-4:40 mark in her this weekend.

And last but not least, we have Portland's Laura Pellicoro. A few weeks ago, on this very track, Pellicoro impressed us with a 9:05 (3k) victory, nearly 20 seconds faster than her previous personal best. As far as the longer distances are concerned, that was a breakout race for Pellicoro, an athlete who saw success last year in the 800 meters and the 1500 meters.

Things are firing on all cylinders for this Pilot talent.

I would say that the potential winning percentage breakdown for each of these four athletes is as follows: Thornton-Bott at 45%, Pellicoro at 35%, Heisterman at 15% and Plourde at 5%.

Scotty: Sub-4:40 marks don’t just get handed out, especially this early in the season. As much as I’d like to add another athlete to who Maura and Gavin have already mentioned, there isn’t anyone else who I foresee in that kind of form right now.

I’ll be the most conservative one thus far and predict that three women -- Plourde, Heisterman and Pellicoro -- to break 4:40. Each of those runners have accomplished this feat before and can rely upon that mental edge to do it again.

Izzy Thornton-Bott has shown flashes of middle distance brilliance on the outdoor oval, but lacks the consistency of the aforementioned athletes at this distance. I expect her to be very competitive, but on the outside looking in from a sub-4:40 performance, perhaps finishing around 4:42-4:43, which would still be an excellent indoor PR for her winter resume.

As far as the winning odds go, I think this race is going to be extremely close and entertaining. I’ll hand out the chances of winning as Pellicoro at 35%, Heisterman at 30%, Plourde at 25% and Thornton-Bott at 10%.

Grace: I am going to say five women will run under 4:40 this weekend. As Scotty, Gavin and Maura said, there are four women who have run sub-4:40 or the equivalent -- and I think all of those women are more than capable of doing so yet again at this point of the season.

We know it will take 4:35 or under to qualify for the NCAA Indoor Championships this winter and several of these women are likely trying to hit a qualifying time this weekend.

I think Pellicoro, Heisterman, Plourde and Thornton-Bott will run under 4:40 and lead one more person under the time as well. Who that person is, though, is a wide-open question.

I think Maddy Elmore of Oregon could make a statement and run under 4:40 in her collegiate mile debut. She ran 9:20 for 3000 meters at the UW Preview as a middle distance runner and based off of her progression and momentum of transitioning to Oregon from high school, she is a name to look out for.

Maura: Weber State’s Billie Hatch has been secretly putting up some impressive times since transferring into the program in the fall of 2020. Hatch has already begun her indoor campaign in a big way with her 15:53 (5k) PR in December. She also threw down a solid 9:17 altitude converted 3k time a few weeks ago.

This weekend, Hatch will face some tough challengers at Washington, but given her racing style, a sub-9:00 effort in the 3000 meters isn’t out of the question. Her current PR of 9:05 shows us she’s on the cusp of not only breaking that barrier, but also earning the overall win.

Gavin: At risk of offering another Washington name, I’ll go with Sophie O’Sullivan. She’s an established middle distance talent who has hinted at having more range than previously expected with a strong cross country campaign.

She peaked admirably for the postseason this past fall, something which suggests that she could be ready for a breakout race at an intermediate distance -- the 3000 meters.

O’Sullivan seems to be only picking up momentum, turning heads by running 2:05 (800) and 4:36 (mile) on her home track to kick-off her 2023 indoor track season. If she still has the aerobic endurance that she displayed in the fall, then she could be knocking on the door of a near-9:00 mark.

Grace: Give me Billie Hatch from Weber State. The Wildcat star ran 9:05 for 3000 meters last season and barely missed out on qualifying for the NCAA Indoor Championships.

She was absent from racing for awhile due to redshirting the 2022 outdoor track season and not having cross country eligibility, but she came back like she never left and ran a 5k PR of 15:53 back in December.

Hatch is a fierce competitor with a chip on her shoulder and I think she is looking at running right around her 9:05 PR, or even faster.

Maura: You’ve got to run a 1:46 to win the men's 800 meters this weekend. Many of these men are coming off of very solid 600 meter and 1000 meter times, avoiding the half-mile like it is lava until now.

However, now’s the time when we will get to see who comes out on top.

Washington’s Aaron Ahl has the most to gain from having a good performance in this race. Ahl transferred to the Division One scene after competing for Division Two program Simon Fraser for the last few years.

After running a respectable 2:24 mark over 1000 meters earlier this month, Ahl will be able to show that transferring to a middle distance powerhouse like Washington was the right move.

Gavin: One would think that running 1:47 low would be enough to win this race. And given the amount of men in this field who have broken 1:50, I would be relatively surprised if nobody breaks the 1:48 barrier. It should be a hotly contested race.

I think Oregon's Elliott Cook, who I’d also tab as the collegiate favorite, has the most to gain from a strong performance in this race. A victory could offer him a signature win on his resume and further his case as being the face of the Ducks’ middle distance program as they transition to a new era under Jerry Schumacher.

Cook may have high expectations as well after running 2:20 for 1000 meters the other week.

Scotty: As Maura mentioned, a good chunk of these athletes have raced distances just over or under 800 meters, so you better believe that they’re ready to let it rip over four laps. And yet, despite the hunger I expect to see from this field, I’m predicting this race to be won in 1:48.

Why not faster? Well, this field has so many guys capable of running under 1:50 that it’s very likely that the inner lanes could get congested, forcing runners to swing wide late and potentially not have a clear enough path to secure a 1:46 or 1:47 mark.

That's just a theory, but given all of the mile-centric men dropping down in distance, it feels like it certainly could play out that way.

As far as whose stock could rise most from a big performance here, I’m going green…Nathan Green, that is (who is in heat five). The Washington star has displayed incredible tactics at the 1500 meters under Coach Andy Powell, but given the success of the program as a whole (most notably Joe Waskom’s national title last spring), Green has slipped somewhat under the radar.

Green currently holds an 800 meter PR of 1:49. If he’s able to win this race and drop a second off of his personal best, then his Husky teammates and the rest of the NCAA may start feeling some serious pressure in the mile come March.

Grace: I think Oregon’s Matthew Erickson could take the field by storm. Prior to becoming a Duck, Harding was an accomplished prep talent in Canada. He now holds an 800 meter PR of 1:48 from the tail-end of last spring.

And after running 1:18 for 600 meters, he is seemingly only getting better.

While he may only be a sophomore lining up with some big names, the young Duck has proven his consistency and his ability to race in competitive fields. And with a strong performance, he could make a statement to his team and the rest of the NCAA.

Maura: Historically speaking, Washington's oversized track produces many of the country's sub-4:00 mile performances over the course of the indoor track season. This weekend should be no different.

I’m expecting six men to dip under the four-minute mile barrier: Washington’s Brian Fay, Kieran Lumb, Luke Houser, Joe Waskom and Aidan Ryan as well as Gonzaga’s Yacine Guermali (who is in heat five).

I know, many Huskies top that list, but rightfully so.

Fay and Lumb have the most impressive resumes of their teammates given their impeccable range from the mile up to the 5k. Both men own personal bests of 3:55 in the mile and have been impressive in their contested events this season. Fay ran 13:16 for 5000 meters back in December and Lumb posted a strong 7:43 mark for 3000 meters two weeks ago.

Their endurance base is going to pay off big time in a race like this.

As for Houser, his recent 2:25 (1k) PR is respectable, but it seems fair to suggest that he can do so much more. Houser’s 3:56 mile PR is one of the top personal bests in the field and it gives him confidence to break the four-minute barrier once again.

The reigning outdoor 1500 meter champion, Joe Waskom, is no longer flying under the radar. Waskom might not have the time-based resume that his competitors do, but that doesn’t diminish what he’s done: Run a 3:56 mile and win an outdoor national title.

And after running 2:18 for 1000 meters the other weekend, we have a ton more confidence about him thriving in what will likely be a time trial-type of environment.

Recent Washington transfer Aidan Ryan, a Division Three stud, has already impressed us this winter after running a 7:53 (3k) PR as well as a 13:49 (5k) PR back in December. Based on the way that Ryan has been progressing under Coach Andy Powell, it’s not going to be surprising if potentially matches his 3:56 mile PR. Plus, Nathan Green has already run 3:58 this season.

And then we come to Gonzaga Bulldog Yacine Guermali in heat five. He hasn’t contested the mile much throughout his career, focusing mainly on the 5k. However, Guermali recently earned a 13:33 (5k) PR and if he can use that strength to improve upon his 4:01 mile personal best, then a sub-four mile effort is absolutely possible.

The percentage breakdown for each of these six athletes to win / emerge as the top collegiate is as follows: Lumb at 25%, Fay at 20%, Ryan at 20%, Waskom at 10%, Guermali at 10% (heat five), Houser at 10% and "other" at 5%.

Gavin: I think all seven Washington men (Ahl, Fay, Green, Houser, Lumb, Ryan and Waskom) entered in this race are pretty safe bets to break 4:00, although it’s possible one of them falters or is pacing. Gonzaga's Yacine Guermali also has a good shot of running 3:59 if he can hang reasonably close to the leaders.

There’s probably another unexpected name who will have a breakout race and join that group. If we’re relying on six of the Washington men, Guermali and another runner, then it’s a good bet that eight men dip under four minutes in Seattle this weekend.

I’ll defer to Waskom and his recent 2:18 (1k) mark as the collegiate favorite, but I could see any of the Washington men winning this race, including versatile superstars Brian Fay or Kieran Lumb, young mile star Nathan Green, the criminally underrated Luke Houser or either of the high-profile transfers.

I’d set the winning odds at...

Scotty: I’ll take six of the Washington Huskies to break the four-minute barrier, as well as a veteran who many people are sleeping on.

From the home team, I think it’s going to be Brian Fay, Nathan Green, Joe Waskom, Luke Houser, Kieran Lumb and Aaron Ahl running under four minutes with Aidan Ryan finishing just outside with a 4:01 or 4:02 mark. The early-season 1000 meter races that these guys flexed suggest that they are in incredible form.

And that sleeper who I mentioned is going under the radar? That's Utah State’s Devin Pancake. Not only does Pancake have the most baller name of any athlete in this field, but the Aggie veteran holds PRs of 3:43 (1500) and 4:00 (mile).

Pancake had a breakout year last winter where he cut nine seconds off of his personal best in the mile. And with the opportunity to race Guermali, it feels like destiny for this senior to break the coveted four-minute mile barrier.

I’ll lock in the odds at Waskom at 25%, Lumb at 20%, Green at 15%, Houser at 10%, Fay at 10%, Ahl at 10%, Pancake at 5% (heat five) and "other" at 5%.

Grace: Maura and Scotty established that several Huskies will likely run sub-4:00 and I completely agree with them...but I don’t think that Joe Waskom is going to be the winner.

The reigning national champion in the 1500 meters is talented and excels in tactical races, but I do not think that this will be a tactical race. Many of these men are going to be going for qualifying times and it will be more of a competitive time trial than a tactical championship.

That being said, I think Nathan Green or Kieran Lumb will cross the line first due to their current momentum. While I do not believe that he will necessarily win, I do think that Aaron Ahl is worth mentioning as a "dark horse" in the event. He was extremely successful while at Simon Fraser, has a 3:57 mile PR and ran 2:24 for 1000 meters in his last race.

With the jump from D2 to a middle distance powerhouse like Washington, I think we are going to see a huge leap in fitness for the new Husky.

Gavin: I’m not sure that what he’ll put forth will qualify as a "breakout" race, but I’m most confident in Wil Smith impressing us with a new personal best. He put together a complete cross country season this past fall and was solid, if not unspectacular, in his first two indoor track races this season. He won both the 5000 meters and the 3000 meters comfortably while staying in Spokane.

Now, he’ll be traveling across the state to Seattle and toeing the line against improved competition. Smith profiles as a distance-first runner, but he should have enough competitiveness and untapped upside to at least leave with a new sub-8:00 personal best while contending for the win.

I’d hardly be shocked to see Smith run in the 7:54 range.

Grace: I completely agree with Scotty in that many of these runners are capable of running sub-8:00, but most haven’t…yet.

Gonzaga's Wil Smith and a few other guys are all solid picks, but I think it is Ahmed Ibrahim of Boise State could take this field by storm. He ran 8:02 in the event just a few weeks ago and ran 7:59 last year.

Based on the improvements that he showed on the grass, and the fact he set a new PR in the 5000 meters at Boston University back in December, I think he is due for a breakout race this weekend.