2023 NXN Championship Preview & Predictions

Written by Donny Speas, additional edits & commentary via Garrett Zatlin

The 2023 NXN Championships, the season finale for the top high school cross country teams in the nation, is set to go down tomorrow, December 2nd. Below, we asked our recruiting and high school specialist, Donny Speas, a handful of questions regarding the big showdown. And if you want to skip to our predictions, you can click here to see those!

The American Fork Cavemen boast a not-so-secret weapon named Danny Simmons who also happens to be the individual national title favorite. And even if Simmons has a "bad" race, then I would still be surprised if he scores more than three points. Countering such a performance will be incredibly challenging for Herriman -- or any other team, for that matter.

The Cavemen have been on absolute fire this season, not experiencing a single loss since mid-September. More importantly, they have secured victories in the last two races against the Herriman Mustangs with both races displaying widely different scores.

In the Utah 6A State XC Championships, American Fork clinched the win by a mere six points. However, it should be noted that the Cavemen secured the win while one Herriman's more high impact scorer, senior low-stick William Steadman, was having an "off" day.

But at the NXR Southwest Championships, it was an entirely different narrative as American Fork dominated, securing the victory by a substantial 42-point margin.

I firmly believe that the Mustangs are stronger than their NXR Southwest race showed. And although their lineup structure may perform better in smaller fields and we can't discount how effective they've been against some of the most elite programs in the country.

With all of that in mind, I am predicting that American Fork will emerge victorious, likely with a margin falling in the 15-point to 20-point range. At the end of the day, I see the differentiating factor being a fairly obvious one: Can all of the Cavemen run well on the same day?

If they do, then the Utah 6A state champions should be able to hold off Herriman. But if the Mustangs run to their full potential and American Fork has a key scorer falter, then you could maybe point to a potential upset happening.

Of course, it's been hard trying to figure out which results from this season are the most indicative of the talent gap between these two teams.

This is a question that has occupied my thoughts since last year's NXN Championships.

Danny Simmons burst onto the scene with a come-from-behind runner-up finish at the 2022 iteration of this meet, and since then, his performances have only gotten stronger. The BYU commit achieved a remarkable feat by running under 14 minutes for 5000 meters during the winter, securing the New Balance Nationals two-mile title in the spring, and is undefeated this cross country season. All these accomplishments point to Danny Simmons being the clear favorite for the title, yet it's crucial to note that he is not invincible.

Among all the individuals participating at NXN, the most significant challenger appears to be Bryon Grevious, a long distance juggernaut who is committed to Stanford.

Grevious brings valuable experience to this field, finishing 12th overall in a previous NXN meet and emerging as the second-ranked returner behind only Simmons. Beyond his experience, Grevious possesses impressive track personal records, particularly in the longer distances. His 5k personal best of 14:04 places him in an elite tier, making him the most apparent candidate for a potential upset.

Another intriguing contender is the NXR Heartland champion, junior Robert Mechura. Mechura holds the third-fastest 5k seasonal best (14:32) this fall among all athletes competing at NXN. His victory in the Heartland regional meet, marked by an epic duel where he edged out Onalaska (WI) junior, Manny Putz, by a tenth of a second, showcases his formidable kick.

While Mechura may not be at the level of Simmons or even Grevious, his presence adds an intriguing dynamic to the competition as well as the tactics associated with it. Covering and responding to certain moves could ultimately swing someone's chances of being competitive with Simmons at the end.

Although Danny Simmons stands out as the clear favorite for the individual title, Bryon Grevious, with his impressive track record, emerges as arguably the most formidable challenger. Additionally, the wild card entry of Robert Mechura introduces an element of unpredictability to the overall competition.

I would also throw in Clay Shively and maybe even Evan Noonan and Nathan Neil as possible contenders. Those guys are high-octane stars who, if given the chance, will pounce on the opportunity to secure gold.

In a field of nearly 200 athletes, it's challenging to pinpoint a single candidate for a surprise All-American, so here are a few contenders in no particular order.

Aloysius Franzen, Stevens Point (WI)

The future Minnesota Golden Gopher has displayed remarkable consistency, finishing in the top-eight of every race that he's entered. With multiple sub-15-minute (5k) performances this season and previous experience at this meet (33rd place last year), Franzen could emerge as an All-American when the final results are tallied.

Samuel Ghiz, Riverton (UT)

Despite not performing at his best throughout the season, this Utah senior has the potential to secure All-American status if he hits his stride on Saturday. Congratulations to Ghiz and his team on their first NXN appearance, adding an element of unpredictability to his performance.

Kyle Steadman, Southwest (UT)

By acknowledging Danny Simmons as the individual national title favorite, it makes sense to also focus on the athlete who finished closest to him all season. With only two athletes finishing within 10 seconds of Simmons this fall, Steadman emerges as a strong candidate to be a top-21 finisher. Having raced Simmons on four occasions this season, Steadman not only has All-American potential, but could also play a crucial role in shaping the overall race.

Aden Bandukwala, Midwest (IL)

Heading to the Duke Blue Devils after this year, Aden Bandukwala, the IHSA 3A individual cross country state champion, brings championship experience to the table. As he aims to continue his upward momentum, his performance on Saturday could mark him as a surprise All-American.

Tayvon Kitchen, Crater (OR)

Following a pattern of improvement throughout the season, this Oregon-based junior has delivered impressive performances in his last three races: a 14:57 (5k) mark, an OSAA cross country state title and a 4th place finish at the NXR Northwest meet. Keep an eye on Kitchen as he carries considerable momentum into Saturday.

After doing some research for our "2023 TSR High School XC Top-10 Team Rankings" this answer seemed fairly apparent to me: The Crater Comets (OR) look primed to outperform their ranking on Saturday.

The men from Southern Oregon have been getting better as the season progresses. Originally, I had Crater as high as TSR #5 in our rankings, but dropped them after some disappointing early-season performances. However, the Comets certainly got my attention after a win at the OSAA 5A State XC Championships.

We've already spoke about Kitchen as a lethal low-stick and Josiah Tostenson, when he's firing on all cylinders, is a lethal talent as well, finishing 42nd at this meet last year. With Shaun Garcia and Caleb Doddington often providing some sneaky-good middle-lineup stability, and Grant Headley not being too far behind, this looks like a fairly strong and balanced group that could definitely crack the top-10 as long as they go out and execute.

Most recently, at the NXR Northwest Championships, Crater finished only five points behind our TSR #8 team, Coeur D’Alene. They're certainly on the upswing, getting closer and closer to the nation’s top-10. And remember, this is a team that knows how to perform at NXN, finishing 4th overall in 2022.

After considering multiple teams, the Belen Jesuit Wolverines (FL) stand out as having the most significant range of potential outcomes among the qualifying teams. And yes, I say that knowing that they are our TSR #3 team right now.

This group boasts elite personal bests with a remarkable team average of 15:08 for 5000 meters. Notably, their varsity lineup has yet to experience defeat throughout the entire season, showcasing their dominance in previous races.

However, the pivotal factor influencing Belen Jesuit's performance appears to be the weather. Hailing from sunny Miami with a current temperature of 73 degrees, transitioning to the notoriously rainy Portland landscape theoeriatcally poses a unique challenge.

Reflecting on the 2022 edition of NXN, where cold 34-degree weather was somewhat humorously considered relatively favorable, the current forecast for Saturday's race is 48 degrees with rain. While this might be an improvement from the previous year, the weather remains a critical variable.

Should the weather stay favorable, it wouldn't be surprising to see Belen Jesuit securing a podium position. Moreover, it wouldn't be a complete shocker if the Wolverines managed to pull off an upset. However, the team's wide range of possibilities, especially with a star freshman in Marcelo Mantecon, who contrasts with the experience of the Ruiz brothers, adds an element of excitement and uncertainty, making them one to watch closely on race day.

Southlake Carroll will run an impressive average of 15:45 (5k) or faster, yet they won't secure a podium finish (top-three).

 The previous year marked the fastest on record for NXN, witnessing 11 athletes breaking the 15-minute barrier and two surpassing Nico Young's course record. The podium squads' average 5k times in that record-setting year were 15:22, 15:52, and 15:48. Anticipating an even faster competition this year, the bar to make the podium is set sky-high.

 Acknowledging that American Fork is the national title favorite and will almost certainly secure a podium spot, Belen Jesuit benefits from weather conditions that aren't expected to be frighteningly chilly, further solidifying their podium potential. Herriman, meanwhile, has consistently performed exceptionally well, maintaining a 5k average in the 15:20s or low 15:30s across various courses.

 While some may point out that Southlake Carroll possesses the fastest 5k average in the country at 15:07, and have displayed exceptional performances throughout the year, I hold the belief that the times achieved on the artificially fast and dry Texas courses may not seamlessly translate to the challenging terrain of Glendover Golf Course.

 In essence, I anticipate Southlake Carroll to deliver an outstanding performance, but I'm not sure that it will be sufficient enough to break into the top-three in a highly competitive and top-heavy field.

Gotta go with Niwot here.

 A few weeks ago, predicting the outcome between these two talented Colorado squads would have been a toss-up for me. Fortunately, they faced-off both against each other and against formidable competition at the NXR Southwest meet.

 In our latest top-10 team rankings, which provides a more in-depth analysis of this matchup (you can read it here), here's the one-sentence recap: Niwot emerged victorious over Air Academy by 14 points.

 While the NXN field is slightly smaller than the NXR Southwest field, I don't foresee any shifts in the status quo. And in my eyes, the differentiating factor may come down to what Air Academy can get from Tessa Walter.

Despite her impressive 5k personal best of 16:55, a significant asset for any team's secondary scoring spot, she hasn't run within 45 seconds of her PR since September. If she can show up and run anywhere close to her personal best, then there's a real possibility that the Air Academy Kadets could bring home the NXN title.

 But that's not a given and it's arguably more important to note that a 14-point regional victory for Niwot, while by no means ginormous, still signals that the Cougars have a slight cushion. Therefore, I predict that Niwot will take the title, surpassing Air Academy by 10 points.

This question proved to be the most challenging for me while composing this article.

It took a good hour of sitting behind my computer, scrutinizing every stat under the sun and I've arrived at this conclusion: Elizabeth Leachman (TX) is my pick to win the individual national title on Saturday morning.

While Rachel Forsyth may have the weather advantage and a more extensive body of work under her belt, and many other talented athletes in the field have chances of pulling off an upset, Leachman has consistently demonstrated exceptional speed.

If you average all of her 5k times this season, you come up with an impressive average of 16:23! Yes, you read that correctly -- Leachman's average 5k time this season is 16:23!

However, I fully anticipate this to be a close race. Forsyth boasts a resume almost as strong as Leachman's and there are numerous formidable athletes in the competition. If it comes down to a sprint finish, keep an eye on Sadie Engelhardt. While many fans of the sport may know Engelhardt for her track accomplishments, she's also a stellar runner on the grass, recently clinching the California individual cross country state title.

Among the other contenders, she's my pick to emerge victorious.

Another formidable California runner with a shot at the title is Santiago Corona junior Rylee Blade. She is a rapidly-rising athlete who recently secured victory in her division at the California XC State Championships. She leads a team with high hopes for a top-five finish.

It would be remiss not to mention the top returner from last year's race, Air Academy's Bethany Michalak, who placed 3rd in the championship race. While not as dominant this year, she seems to be rounding into form, most recently finishing 4th at the NXR Southwest meet.

1 & 2. Reese Dalton & Maddie Gardiner, Southeast (VA):

I must admit, I have a high regard for this duo from Virginia. Despite their quiet greatness this season, Reese Dalton, who secured a 2nd place finish at the NXR Southeast meet with a sub-17 (5k) personal best, and Maddie Gardiner, a 2022 Foot Locker All-American who recently set a PR after two years, deserve more attention. Importantly, having a each other for an event as all-encompassing as NXN will undoubtedly be a valuable asset both on and off the course.

3. Katelyn Rupe, Heartland (KS):

Here's an interesting fact for you all: Katelyn Rupe has never lost a race within the state lines of Kansas. However, her abilities extend far beyond the Sunflower State as evidenced by her recent 2nd place finish at NXR Heartland meet. I wouldn't be surprised if she managed to secure a position within the top-21 on Saturday morning.

4. Ella Woehlcke, Northeast (PA):

Although primarily known as a track runner and a University of Virginia commit, Ella Woehlcke earned her spot to NXN at the NXR Northeast meet. I anticipate that her track speed will undoubtedly aid her in surpassing fellow athletes, especially in the long final straightaway of Glendover Golf Course.

5 & 6. Samantha and Nicole Humphries, Flower Mound (TX):

I'm placing a significant bet on experience here. The twin sisters, Samantha and Nicole Humphries, both of whom are multiple-time All-Americans, may not be as formidable as in previous years, but they are showing positive trends. Even if they don't both secure All-American status, I have confidence that both are more than capable of finishing within the top-20 scoring positions.

I felt bad about removing this team from our latest rankings update, so this is a chance to make it right.

The defending national champions, the Saratoga Springs Blue Streaks, are making the trip to Portland for the fifth year in a row. To be frank, I'm fairly certain Saratoga Springs won’t be coming home with another national title, but I do know that they are certainly capable of a top-10 finish.

Admittedly, Saratoga Spring’s body of work hasn’t been enough to earn a top-10 ranking this season, but I'd be surprised if the coaching duo of Linda and Art Kranick doesn’t find a way to have their squad finish inside the top-10 of the national meet.

We know that the Blue Streaks have plenty of championship experience. After all, they are the defending national champions and although they “only” beat Bethlehem Central by 20 points at NXR New York, they have won every championship meet that they’ve been entered in and are trending in the right direction.

All of this without even mentioning Providence commit Emily Bus, who has the most experience of anyone in this year's NXN field. She has competed at the 2018, 2019 and 2022 editions of this meet (yes, you read that right). This year, I’d be shocked if she’s not inside the top-10 scoring positions.

But what really makes this team so dangerous is what their collective top-three can do. When you consider that veterans Alycia Hart and Anya Belisle have yet to finish outside of the top-10 in any meet this season, that top-heavy scoring prowess should favor the Blue Streaks in this field.

To wrap it up, I’m betting on the experience, low-stick firepower and rich history of the Saratoga Springs girls to help the Blue Streaks find their way into the top-10.

The biggest wild card for me has got to be the Lone Peak girls out of the Southwest region.

More specifically, the wild card is mountain biking phenom, Andie Aagard. The low-stick ace is currently undefeated in her three races this year, highlighted by a win at the Utah 6A XC State Championships.

The reason why she’s a wild card is simply because she has a very limited resume with very few results to legitimately analyze. Aagard did not make the trip to NXR Southwest meet, a race where she would have been in contention for the individual win. If she were to win or even place top-five at NXR, then we would be talking about Lone Peak as a title contender.

Truthfully, I think that if Aagard is racing fully healthy this Saturday, then Lone Peak should be considered as an outside national title contender. She is listed in the entires for Saturday, so it’s fairly safe to assume that she’ll be racing.

The question that should be on everyone’s mind, however, is what kind of race will we get to see from the elite mountain bike turned elite runner on Saturday? And if the Baybee sisters are all able to stay together as a collective unit despite two of them being underclassmen, then it's hard to see a scenario where this team has a poor outing.

I understand this might be a bit of a bold move, but I'm doubling down.

Nicole Humphries, in her third race of the season, will finish as an All-American and play a pivotal role in guiding Flower Mound (TX) to a podium position.

Reason A: Championship Pedigree. Humphries boasts an impressive championship pedigree, having earned All-American honors twice on grass, once at NXN and once at Foot Locker. Notably, she has also secured All-American recognition over 800 meters, showcasing her versatility and prowess on the national stage.

Reason B: Improved Performance. This year, Humphries has demonstrated an even stronger performance compared to last year. At the NXR South Championships, she clocked a time of 17:49 (5k) on the same course as where she ran 18:02 (5k) the previous year. And although the South region is faster this year, her improved effort suggests that she can at least match her 13th place finish from the 2022 edition of NXN.

Reason C: Momentum & Late-Season Debut. Launching her cross country season on November 4th at the UIL 6A XC State Championships, Humphries finished 23rd overall with a time of 18:12 (5k). But just two weeks later at the NXR South meet, she improved significantly, finishing 12th overall with the aforementioned time of 17:49 (5k). That late-season debut and the notable progress within a short span highlights her tremendous momentum which could result in her a perfect postseason peak on Saturday. And when you consider that she has had another two weeks of training, her current form remains uncertain, but promising.

If Nicole Humphries secures All-American status, it sets the stage for Flower Mound Jaguars to undoubtedly conclude the season on the podium.

NOTE: When NXN results for individual races are shown, those on nationally qualified teams will have their team name show. Athletes who have individually qualified without a team will have their region showing, thus explaining our below formatting.

Teams

Individuals

Teams

Individuals