2023 NCAA Indoor Championship Scratch Predictions (D1)

Well friends, we made it.

We have just one more meet left in the 2023 indoor track season -- the NCAA Indoor Championships. However, with conference meets just wrapping up, we still need to do the delicate dance of figuring out who is and isn't running in certain events come mid-March.

And that is far from a simple exercise.

At the Division One level, the top-16 individuals and the top-12 relays in the NCAA automatically qualify for the NCAA Indoor Championships. However, athletes within that top-16 (or relays within that top-12) could also be qualified in numerous events and instead would like to focus on certain races over others.

Opting out of a top-16 spot in a certain event is called a "scratch". This allows the next-fastest, non-scratching athlete to qualify for the indoor national meet in that event.

In some instances, we don't see any scratches in certain events. Other times, we could go as high as NCAA #30 in a certain race given how many scratches one discipline has.

There are often a TON of ripple effects that these scratches (and non-scratches) have on the national qualifying picture. At The Stride Report, it's our job to predict who is scratching which events and who is not...so let's get into it.

This year's women's 800 meter field is unique.

It's balanced, but wildly diverse...all at the same time.

But despite the varied nature of talent, experience and skillsets among this group, there are only a handful of women who leave us with questions about their postseason aspirations.

Arkansas' Britton Wilson is currently listed at NCAA #6 in the women's 800 meters. However, she is also ranked at NCAA #6 in the 400 meters. Yes, she did run 2:02.13 (twice) this season -- ultimately finishing 2nd at the SEC Indoor Championships in that event -- but Wilson is still relatively inexperienced in the half-mile event. She has only toed the line for that event three times in two meets.

On paper, her chances of a top national meet finish are just as strong in the 400 meters than they are in the 800 meters. And when you consider that she is far more established in the former event than the latter, it simply makes much more sense for her to attack the quarter-mile distance.

Not only that, but if Wilson wanted to double back from the DMR after the prelims, she would have more time for rest after the first round of the 400 meters. Plus, it is theoretically easier to rebound from a 400 meter race than an 800 meter race...but that may be my distance bias showing.

The only other woman who leaves us with uncertainty about her event selection is long-time veteran Lindsey Butler of Virginia Tech.

The middle distance superstar is the defending indoor 800 meter national champion from last winter who sustained an injury last spring and couldn't compete. But since then, Butler has been viewed as the national title favorite (or one of the favorites) for the half-mile distance this winter.

But Butler's 800 meter efforts this season have admittedly been unexciting. She produced a 2:03.13 flat-track converted mark at Camel City (which currently has her at NCAA #16), but she then struggled at the ACC Indoor Championships this past weekend as she faded to 4th place and was well off from her PR.

However, the Hokie star has also run 4:31 in the mile this season which places her at NCAA #5 on the national leaderboard. She has faced top competition before and owns one of the nation's best marks in the event. Plus, her speed could be useful in tactical scenarios.

Even so, Butler is far less experienced (at this level) in the mile than she is in the 800 meters. She knows exactly what to expect from this 800 meter field if she were to toe the line for the half-mile distance. So what does she choose?

Honestly, your guess is as good as mine, but I'll say that she goes with the event that she is most comfortable in and runs the 800 meters.

Could Roisin Willis (Stanford), Juliette Whittaker (Stanford) and/or Carley Thomas (Washington) opt out of this event to be fresh for their DMR lineups? Yes, that could happen, but it feels unlikely, especially since all of those women are expected to play major roles in this field.

Let's get the most obvious scratch out of the way first.

Washington's Nathan Green ran 1:46.99 for 800 meters earlier this season. He currently sits at NCAA #15 in the event on the national leaderboard. But this is also someone who has run 3:52 in the mile which places him at NCAA #5 for that discipline. And let's not forget, he was a 1500 meter All-American last spring.

I would be absolutely shocked if Green opted for the 800 meters over the mile. The only possible argument that I could find for that decision would be if Coach Andy Powell wanted to diversify his number of possible team points that the Huskies could score on the national stage.

That, however, seems extremely unlikely.

The other 800/mile hybrid middle distance talent is Oregon's Elliott Cook -- and he may be one of the most challenging names to figure out.

The Duck standout has run 1:46.93 for 800 meters (NCAA #11) and 3:55 in the mile (NCAA #15) this winter. He isn't dramatically better in one event over the other.

Cook is ranked more highly in the men's mile 800 meters than he is in the mile. The men's 800 meters also seems to be far more wide-open than in comparison to the men's mile. However, this is also someone who ran 3:38 for 1500 meters last spring and qualified for the outdoor national meet in that event.

In terms of experience, Cook probably has slightly more comfort in the mile than he would over the half-mile distance. Plus, his 800 meter speed could be a very useful weapon in the always-tactical prelims (and finals) of the men's mile.

For that reason, I think he'll scratch out of the 800 meters...but someone could easily convince me otherwise.

Other runners like Crayton Carrozza (Texas), Yusuf Bizimana (Texas), Baylor Franklin (Ole Miss) and Cass Elliott (Washington) could scratch in favor of the DMR, but that seems unlikely.

Texas will have a few replacements or have that duo double back. Washington, meanwhile, is simply deep enough to the point where they can fill their relay with anyone (likely those doubling back from the mile prelims). It's a somewhat similar story for Ole Miss.

Alright, now things get interesting.

Let's begin with Katelyn Tuohy, the superstar who everyone wants to know more about. The NC State phenom has been beyond incredible this year, proving to be one of the most all-around valuable distance talents that the NCAA has ever seen.

That, in turn, leaves her with two realistic scenarios.

In the first scenario, we could see Tuohy attempt the 5k/3k double. She did that exact same double at last year's indoor national meet and found massive success, earning runner-up finishes in both events.

On paper, another double like that would make a ton of sense. In our eyes, she's a distance-first runner who is probably better suited for those events.

However, in the second scenario, Coach Laurie Henes could maximize Tuohy's point scoring potential. In this case, Tuohy would run the mile prelims and then double back the same day to run the DMR. Then, Tuohy would run the mile finals on day two and later double back that same day to run the 3k finals.

The second scenario is a big ask, even for someone like Tuohy. That racing schedule has certainly been done before, but it's not common and it's extremely hard to pull off effectively.

A lot of this will probably comes down to how strong NC State wants their DMR to be. Sam Bush isn't going to be entered in anything individually other than the 3k on day two. That leaves her completely fresh for the DMR on day one.

And if Bush is on that relay, would the Wolfpack women have a realistic shot at earning NCAA gold in this event with Tuohy on the anchor? I certainly think so.

Still, the 5k/3k double is safer and more predictable. There's less of a chance that Tuohy blows up or becomes victim of a tactical miscue. She'll probably scratch out of the mile and the DMR, but...crazier things have happened.

We have already talked about Lindsey Butler in the above section. She's a 4:31 miler who will probably contest the 800 meters despite being much more highly ranked in this event. That, of course, is just a guess.

However, West Virginia star Ceili McCabe is a really interesting name to consider.

On paper, McCabe is undeniably at her best in the longer distances. She's run 8:50 for 3000 meters this winter and is a monster on the grass. Truthfully, I'm shocked that she never contested a 5k race this season.

But one of the more pleasant surprises that we got from McCabe over the last few months was a huge 4:31 mile PR. That time places her at NCAA #7 and gives the Mountaineer distance talent a realistic avenue to try the mile/3k double.

That is a very doable double for someone like McCabe. However, if she ran the mile and then made the finals, should would then have to double back on day two to race in the 3k finals without fresh legs. That would be her third overall race of the weekend.

We would have to assume that McCabe wants to put her focus on maximizing her performance over 3000 meters. And because of that, I see her scratching from the mile in favor of being fresh for one of the last races of the weekend.

Yes, there are other women such as Amina Maatoug (Duke), Maia Ramsden (Harvard), Alex Carlson (Rutgers) and Kaylee Mitchell (Oregon State) who could also do the mile/3k double. However, Maatoug and Ramsden are legitimate national title threats in the mile while Mitchell and Carlson don't have much to lose by going for the double. Those latter two women aren't so much better in the 3k than they are in the mile.

I don't see any of those four women scratching.

Other names such as Anna Gibson (Washington), Sophie O'Sullivan (Washington), Klaudia Kazimierska (Oregon), Izzy Thornton-Bott (Oregon), Lauren Gregory (Arkansas), Gabija Galvydyte (Oklahoma State) and Riley Chamberlain (BYU) could all be asked to be fresh for their respective DMR lineups.

But the Washington and Oregon women, as well as Lauren Gregory, have shown this season that they can effectively double in a single day. Meanwhile, Chamberlain will have numerous top-tier replacements for her leg of the DMR. Whittaker will opt for the 800 meters instead of the mile and Oklahoma State doesn't need to have Galvydyte on their relay to be successful.

And yes, Gregory could also opt for the 5k over the DMR/mile double. But from a point scoring perspective, that doesn't make sense. The Arkansas runner is expected to be a far bigger factor in the mile than in the 5k and she could also double back for the DMR following the completion of the mile prelims.

If she ran the 5k, then that would be her only race of the weekend.

The entries for the men's mile are a little more straightforward and can be discussed in groups rather than individually. Allow me to explain...

The Washington men have a ridiculous total of seven men who could realistically run in the men's mile. However, Brian Fay is far better suited for the 5k/3k double. That move would also give the Huskies more point scoring diversity. It would also make more sense for Kieran Lumb to run the DMR/3k double. That would leave him fresh for a big relay anchor leg.

Meanwhile, Nathan Green seems like an obvious pick to scratch out of the 800 meters while everyone else -- Houser, Ahl, Ryan and Waskom -- are essentially locks to contest the mile.

Yes, it is possible that Lumb runs the mile and then doubles back to the 3k the next day. That, however, just doesn't seem like the right move. Despite holding a 3:52 mile PR, he would only marginally improve Washington's point scoring potential in the open mile. His scoring value as a fresh pair of legs is far greater in the DMR relative to the mile, at least in my opinion.

Speaking of the DMR, there may be a few other guys who are going to drop the mile in favor of the late-night relay.

Fouad Messaoudi has said in an interview earlier this month that "the plan is" for him to do the DMR/3k double at the indoor national meet. In my mind, that means that Ryan Schoppe would also be in the same boat. They did, after all, run the NCAA DMR record together earlier this month.

It will be difficult for Washington to put together a fresh relay. That leaves the Cowboys as the somewhat clear favorite if Messaoudi and Schoppe are going to be fresh. And since both of those men would run the 3k the next day, neither athlete would be missing out individual glory, either.

Similarly, North Carolina's Ethan Strand mentioned in his post-race interview at the ACC Indoor Championships that he wants to come out with, "hopefully something else at Nationals in the DMR." And if the Tar Heels have title aspirations in that relay, then they'll need their star sophomore to be fresh.

In that case, I could see Strand scratching this event.

Speaking of the DMR, I'm not entirely sure what to expect from Villanova ace Liam Murphy who currently sits at NCAA #16 in the mile. On paper, the Wildcats have the perfect personnel for the DMR. They should attack that race completely fresh in hopes that they can catch Oklahoma State and/or Washington on an "off" day.

But would it make more sense for Murphy to be replaced with someone else on the lead-off leg? Would it be better if Murphy ran the open mile and then doubled back? Both of those situations are possible, but I still think it makes more sense for him to be completely fresh on this relay. The Wildcats have a ton of potential in the DMR if they are all fresh.

And yes, I would apply that same logic to Charlie O'Donovan if the scratches reach him.

We've already talked about Elliott Cook (Oregon) and how I think he'll scratch the 800 meters in favor of this event. Ky Robinson (Stanford) is also a lock to scratch out of the mile in favor of the 5k where he's a national title favorite. Adam Spencer could scratch the mile to be fresh for the DMR, but for whatever reason...I just don't see that happening.

And no, I honestly don't have a good reason for that hunch.

I should also note that Anass Essayi and Duncan Hamilton don't have anything to lose by trying to mile/3k double. Essayi is a title favorite in this event and Hamilton's competition for an All-American honor will only get more challenging in the 3k compared to the mile.

When it comes to predicting entries for the 3000 meters, this is my favorite event.

Why?

Well, because it's the easiest race to predict entries/scratches for.

The men's and women's 3000 meters is the very last distance event of the NCAA Indoor Championships. In theory (and on paper), no one really has any reason to scratch from this event. There is no distance event after the 3k and therefore no concern about how fresh someone is/isn't going to be.

For the most part, I can't think of any good reason why these women would scratch from the 3k. Yes, Stanford's Julia Heymach scratched from the event last year in pursuit of the DMR/mile double, but that's still pretty rare.

Amaris Tyynismaa won't be racing on the national stage this winter. She ran 8:55 for 3000 meters back in December during her time with Alabama, but has since transferred to NC State. And because you can't run for two teams in one season, she had to race unattached this winter.

Tyynismaa is a forced scratch that we fully anticipated.

There is, however, one more name to keep in mind.

What should we think about Parker Valby? The Florida superstar was expected to be one of the main contenders in the women's 3000 meter field in two weeks. However, Valby didn't race in either the 5000 meters or the 3000 meters at the SEC Indoor Championships despite being present at the meet.

Is the Gator ace going to race at the indoor national meet? We would think/hope so, but we simply have no idea. Any sourcing we have on this is a bit all over the place.

I anticipate that she'll still run the 3k in Albuquerque, but...there's also a somewhat realistic chance that she's absent from the national stage as well.

This one's going to be short and sweet.

I do not believe that anyone in the men's 3000 meter field will scratch this event. They simply have no incentive to do so.

Sure, Fouad Messaoudi (Oklahoma State), Ryan Schoppe (Oklahoma State), Kieran Lumb (Washington) and Brian Fay (Washington) could all try the DMR/mile double and then say, "Nah, we don't need to do the 3k."

But that seems extremely unlikely, especially since all four of those men are expected to play major roles in this 3k field. In fact, you could argue that any one of those four men could win a national title on an absolutely perfect day (which would be surprising, but still possible).

In other words, the top-16 men you see on TFRRS right now is going to be the group that you see toe the line for the men's 3000 meters on the national stage.

In theory, the women's 5k could see a handful of scratches each and every year. Some women may opt to contest the mile and/or DMR on the first day of the national meet while others may want to be completely fresh for the 3k in an effort to be all-in for the event.

But this year, it doesn't look we will see too many scratches. Sure, we'll see one or two, but for the most part, there aren't too many scenarios where the field is going to look all that different from the current national leaderboard.

We already spoke about Lauren Gregory in the above mile section. Everything that we've seen from her this season suggests that she'll scratch the 5k. She can maximize her team points by doing the mile/DMR double and she also has a legitimate chance of winning gold in the mile. I can't say the same thing about her chances over 5000 meters.

The only other name who could realistically scratch is someone you may not have considered.

In this case, I am suggesting that Natalie Cook could scratch.

The Oklahoma State freshman megastar ran 15:24 for 5000 meters back in December. She set the U20 national record in the process and currently sits at NCAA #6 on the national leaderboard.

The problem, however, is that Cook hasn't completed a race since December 3rd. She did try racing a 3k at the Husky Classic, but two and a half minutes in, she looked flat-out bad and then eventually had to drop out after fading incredibly hard.

I have no idea what to think about Cook. Her absence from racing is concerning and her only other attempt at racing during this season went very poorly. And yet, at the same time, at least she was trying to race. And that's what leaves me unsure.

Ultimately, I think I'll say that Cook runs the women's 5k. However, her status ultimately decides the fate of Amanda Vestri who sits at NCAA #18 on the national leaderboard (assuming Gregory scratches like we think she will).

Just like we mentioned with the women, this year's men's 5k field only has a few names who need to be analyzed in terms of their event selection. For the most part, this field is pretty straightforward.

Yes, Brian Fay could scratch this event for the mile and/or DMR. However, the point diversity that he brings to the 5k offers far more value for Washington.

Sure, there are a handful of men who could choose to go all-in for the 3k and scratch the 5k. But truthfully, I don't think there are too many guys who fit that profile. For the most part, a lot of these men are better 5k runners than they are 3k runners. And if it's the opposite, then they are still viewed as contenders/favorites for the 5k national title (i.e. Bosley and Jacobs).

The only guy who leaves me with some level of uncertainty is Isai Rodriguez.

The Oklahoma State star ran a monster time of 13:25 for 5000 meters back in December. Right now, that time places him at NCAA #14. However, that is the only race that he has toed the line for this season -- he has no other marks since then!

Or so I thought...

Rodriguez actually raced at the 2023 USA XC Championships back in late January. It wasn't his best race, finishing 30th overall, but that is an encouraging sign that he was still fit enough to race.

I'll admit, his ongoing absence outside of that race isn't ideal. But just like fellow teammate Natalie Cook, it's at least nice to know that he's been actively competing this winter. With that in mind, I imagine that he'll be present on the national stage and contest the 5k.

Of course, Joey Nokes (NCAA #17) will be hoping otherwise.

When it comes to national qualifying for relays, the NCAA takes the top-12 declared relays, not the top-16 like they do with the individual events. And since teams can enter any combination of athletes that they would like, you never see any scratches come from this field.

However, the real uncertainty is whether or not certain men or women will double back from other events to run on their relays or if they will scratch their open events entirely to focus solely on the DMR.

Below, I compiled a list of every male and female distance athlete found in our above predictions who could possibly run on their team's distance medley relay, even if it's only a 1% chance. Any further analysis surrounding the DMR can be found in the above sections...