TSR Collaboration
Nov 17, 202315 min
Written by Grace McLaughlin, Marissa Kuik & Garrett Zatlin
Questions, edits and additional commentary via Gavin Struve & Garrett Zatlin
The Division Two men’s individual title race is arguably as wide-open as any, among teams or individuals, across divisions. How many different men could realistically win the individual national title on Saturday?
Grace: I think there are up to nine national title contenders.
Yes, nine.
William Amponsah (West Texas A&M), Simon Kelati (Western Colorado), Matthew Storer (Colorado Christian), Romain Legendre (Adams State), Andrew Amor (New Mexico Highlands), Duncan Fuehne (Colorado Mines), Ransom Allen (Wayne State (MI)), Aspel Kiprob (East Central) and Loic Scomparin (Colorado Mines) should all be in the conversation for winning gold this weekend.
Amponsah is arguably the top pick after his statement wins at the Louisville XC Classic and the South Central Regional XC Championships, paired with his overall momentum in general this season. On paper, he looks like he has the most raw talent in the field.
I think Storer, Amor and Kelati are all strong contenders as well. Storer won the Lewis XC Crossover, Amor won the RMAC title and Kelati was the RMAC runner-up. Meanwhile, Legendre was the runner-up at the South Central Regional XC Championships and the Colorado Mines duo of Fuehne and Scomparin have been more than solid this season.
It also feels like Aspel Kiprob is a major dark horse despite his latest regional effort and Ransom Allen has shown incredible poise this fall, but I would still consider him a wildcard.
Sure, some of these men are more heavily favored than others, but I can see realistic avenues for each of these men to earn the individual national title. Some guys will bank on experience, others will rely on the fact that they have tons of natural talent and others are simply more well-rounded than most.
Marissa: The state of the Division Two men’s individual title race is extremely exciting. Though watching Dillon Powell dominate was always impressive, we appear in line for a much more compelling national title race this weekend.
I can feasibly say there are 11 guys in the running for the individual title based off of their consistency this season and their wins against tough competition.
In one group, you have the guys with the most talent and wins under their belt, including William Amponsah, Andrew Amor and Matthew Storer. That's probably "tier A."
Then you have the guys who have put themselves in the mix in each race and could find themselves in the same situation come Saturday. That group includes Simon Kelati, Duncan Fuehne, Loic Scomparin, Ransom Allen and Aspel Kiprob.
Finally, you have the wildcards who haven't been as consistent this season, but have shown us in the past they they are capable of winning a national title talent-wise. That two-person group features Awet Beraki and Jan Lukas Becker.
Given the varied background and racing styles of these men, each of whom all seem to be on a somewhat similar plane in terms of current talent, we don't need to sell you on a race that could end up being a thriller.
Garrett: I'm usually someone who tries to be pretty conservative when it comes making predictions and writing previews. But I don't think Grace or Marissa are exaggerating when they say that there might be double digit contenders for men's individual gold.
Personally, I see seven men truly being in the mix.
William Amponsah (West Texas A&M), Simon Kelati (Western Colorado), Matthew Storer (Colorado Christian), Romain Legendre (Adams State), Andrew Amor (New Mexico Highlands), Duncan Fuehne (Colorado Mines) and Ransom Allen (Wayne State (MI)) are the group of men who I would highlight as contenders for NCAA gold.
Amponsah has been elite since day one and given his undefeated streak against top-tier competition, I think he has to be the favorite. However, this West Texas A&M runner is still fairly inexperienced as far as NCAA exposure is concerned. And while his South Central regional title was nice, that stage held far less emphasis than that of the national meet.
Storer and Amor could each argue that they have the best individual win in the nation against a D2-centric field this season. Meanwhile, Fuehne is likely the most experienced runner of this group, Allen has been the most consistent and Legendre has tons of raw talent.
Again, Amponsah is the main guy to take down, and you'll see him as the common choice among our D2 crew in our predictions, but it feels like each of those six men men behind him all have fairly realistic (and equal) shots of securing gold.
Conversely, Lindsay Cunningham (TSR #1) is a clear favorite among women’s individuals. Should we expect anyone to threaten her? Or is this a race for the silver medal? What percent chance would give her to not win?
Grace: I think completely eliminating the idea that another individual could win the national title would be dismissing the elite talent of names like Brianna Robles (Adams State), Natalie Graber (GVSU) and Eleonora Curtabbi (West Texas A&M).
That being said, Lindsay Cunningham is the overwhelming favorite for good reason, and I think Robles is the only one who will realistically challenge her at the front of the race. It would take something absurd for Cunningham to lose this race and I would put her chance of her not winning the national title at only 5%.
Marissa: This is definitely Lindsay Cunningham’s race to lose. She has almost turned into the Dillon Powell of the women’s side, dominating every race and coming away with easy wins no matter the competition. In fact, she may even be better than Powell at this point.
Her biggest threat will be Robles, but one of the biggest surprises for me is how Cunningham has handled Robles on multiple stages already. She easily took home 2nd place ahead of Robles (and behind Stephanie Cotter) at last year’s cross country national meet and then beat Robles in both the 5k and the 10k at (altitude) for double gold during the outdoor national meet.
That display of dominance, paired with the fact that she hasn't lost a step since then, leads me to believe that there is only a 3% chance Cunningham doesn't win the title -- as far as I can tell, she has once again risen to a new level this fall.
Garrett: Brianna Robles of Adams State is definitely Lindsay Cunningham's biggest threat, but I don't know how the Winona State superstar is going to lose this race. The only true way that Cunningham falls out of contention for NCAA gold is if she beats herself with an overly aggressive race plan or she simply has a terrible day.
You could maybe argue that Natalie Graber is also in the conversation to potentially battle with Cunningham, but Robles is the obvious choice.
The Adams State star is a proven, national title-winning veteran who is very familiar with Cunningham's hard-from-the-gun tactics. And given how strong the Grizzly distance star has looked as of late, she may be able to hang around for longer than we're expecting.
But at the end of the day, I think Grace and Marissa are both in the same range as I am. I'll give the potential for an upset to sit at 6%, the highest of our TSR trio.
Colorado Mines is expected to successfully defend their national title on the men’s side. What would need to happen for another program to snag the team title and who has the best shot?
Grace: I think Colorado Mines would have to be without one of their top scorers, whether that’s through a DNF or not being on the starting line for some reason. Either that, or every single runner in their top-five would have to have an extremely poor race.
Even so, the Orediggers are solid enough (and deep enough) to still be able to win if a couple of their scorers underperform.
This is probably pretty bold based on results so far this season, but the team with the best chance at the national title is Wingate. Their perfect score at the Southeast Regional XC Championships was impressive (despite the competition) and it seems like they STILL didn't run a handful of their top men!
I think they’ve been holding out on showcasing their talent and they’ll pleasantly surprise us this weekend -- they could pull off the upset if Colorado Mines leaves the door open.
Marissa: Colorado Mines would need to have at least two guys record a "DNF" for them not to win the title, just like what happened in 2021 when the national meet was in Florida.
Both Dillon Powell and Duncan Fuehne were unable to finish that race, opening it up for Adams State to take the national title. Of course, we already saw that Colorado Mines can still win while missing one of their top guys, as evidenced at the South Central Regional XC Championships when Duncan Fuehne did not race (but the team still fielded a full seven-person lineup).
Though both Grand Valley State and Wingate are gearing up to take down Colorado Mines, I don't think those two teams, nor Adams State, have the same depth that the Orediggers possess.
Garrett: There are three teams, in my mind, who are viewed as worthy challengers to Colorado Mines come Saturday. They are Grand Valley State, Adams State and Wingate.
Grand Valley State has great depth, solid experience and a highly effective pack of top scorers. However, the lack a truly elite low-stick such as former stars like Tanner Chada, Isaac Harding or Zach Panning makes it hard to see a scenario where the Lakers come close to pulling off an upset.
Wingate is...kind of a mystery. Yes, we saw last fall how good they were, but just how good are they in 2023? We haven't seen this team race in a competitive D2-centric field with a full lineup this season. On paper, they have tons of high-end scoring options, but we have no idea how they truly stack up to Colorado Mines.
Adams State, to me, probably has the best chance to beat Colorado Mines with the fewest number of things needing to happen.
Sure, Awet Beraki hasn't looked quite as sharp this season and the Colorado Mines men have seemingly yet to run their seven-best men all at the same time. But through five runners, Adams State has solid core and if two or three runners on that team have the best race of their careers on Saturday, then maybe, just maybe, the Grizzlies can pull off an upset.
But truthfully, all of that just feels extremely unlikely. The Orediggers could have more than one guy have an "off" day and they would still likely win NCAA gold with ease. In other words, the team with the best chance of beating Colorado Mines...is Colorado Mines.
GVSU has been our TSR #1 women’s team for much of this season. If they fail to win the national title on Saturday, it was because ______ happened.
Grace: I think the only realistic reason why the Lakers wouldn't win the national title is if they don't have their full lineup.
There is some concern with Lauren Kiley being somewhat absent this season, although we expect her to race the national meet. I think it would take another absent athlete at the top of their lineup for this team to lose, perhaps if Ana Tucker, Klaudia O’Malley or Natalie Graber were unable to make it to the start line for some reason.
But if this team's top-four ends up being as potent as they have been all season long, then the depth of this team should be enough to snag gold.
Marissa: Though Grand Valley State beat Adams State early-on in the season at the Louisville XC Classic, I think the race between these two teams is going to be closer than a lot of people may realize.
The Lakers have definitely been more consistent than the Grizzlies this fall, but Adams State is rounding into form right when they need to. Thus, I believe it really will not take much for GVSU to fall short of a national title -- the Grizzlies will be on their tails the whole race.
If one of the Lakers' stars has a bad day, then Adams State will easily capitalize on it. However, if Grand Valley State can perform the same way that they have been all season long, then I do think that they will edge out the Grizzlies.
Garrett: I completely agree with Marissa. I'm not at all convinced that Grand Valley State is just going to cruise to a national title. Yes, I do think that the Lakers are the better team -- their firepower is just insanely potent -- but the Grizzlies are exceptionally talented through five or six runners.
Marissa is correct in saying that the GVSU women would need one of their top women, likely in the top-four, to have an "off" day if they are going to falter out of the top spot. And in that case, the Adams State women could potentially win gold if their top-five produces results that are on the better end of expectations.
I would argue that Adams State as an entire team has been fairly consistent, but the individual pieces in their lineup have not been. If Emily Schoellkopf, Ava O'Connor, Morgan Hykes, Ava O'Connor, Vienna Lahner and/or a handful of others are able to put together their best races of the season behind a great day from Brianna Robles, then I wouldn't at all be surprised if this RMAC juggernaught was on top of the podium yet again.
Grace: For the men, I think this is East Central’s chance to show just how much international talent that they were able to recruit over the last year or two.
This is not a team that one would expect to be in the conversation for a top-10, or even a top-five, finish at the cross country national meet. However they’ve posted some really impressive results so far this season. This weekend is the Tigers' chance to prove that they not only belong on the national stage, but that they’re a top program.
For the women, I think it’s Western Washington.
The WWU men’s team has been a familiar name on the national stage, but the women have not matched the same level of success over the last few seasons. The Viking women weren’t even at the NCAA XC Championships last fall, but now they’re ranked at TSR #10 after winning the West regional meet title. Can they back up that ranking on Saturday?
Marissa: On the men’s side, it's definitely Adams State. The history of this program is incredible and after not even reaching the national meet last year, they surely have a chip on their shoulder heading into this meet.
Has their season been perfect? No, definitely far from it with an early loss to Grand Valley State at the Louisville XC Classic and some injuries. However, I am pretty confident that this team is going to go in and try to take the title away from Colorado Mines, especially with everything that happened last year when they did not even get a chance to race in Seattle.
On the women’s side, Winona State has a lot to prove. This is not a team that is often competitive on the national stage, but they've put themselves in position to reach their first podium in recent history.
The Warriors have been a bit inconsistent this fall, but have never been bad. And given how this squad has performed during the championship season, they seem ready to prove the naysayers wrong and reach the program's first podium finish.
Garrett: I'd love to be different and say a team that hasn't already been highlighted, but Grace is absolutely right, it's the East Central men. The Tigers have dominated every team that they have faced so far this fall, flexing dominant firepower with men who, truthfully, we're not perfectly sure just how good they actually are.
But at the same time, the Tigers haven't faced competition anywhere close to the teams who they will face on Saturday. If their firepower is as good as we think it is, then a top-10 finish should be more than reasonable for this squad. That, of course, has yet to be seen.
For the women, I'll go with Cedarville.
This team had high expectations last fall and found fairly decent success. And in 2023, we expected the Yellow Jackets to be just as good.
The problem, however, is that their showing at the Louisville XC Classic was "just ok," finishing just one spot ahead of Mississippi College in the final standings. They later finished runner-up to Tampa at the UAH Chargers Invite and have only found modest success in the postseason so far this fall.
Right now, the Yellow Jackets sit at TSR #9 in our team rankings. And for as much as I like Hannah Rhem, that feels like a generous ranking. But if Corinne Lynch continues to run like she has as of late and Savannah Ackley is able to run at her absolute best, then this group should be able to snag a top-10 spot...right?
Grace: Well, since my entire life savings is pretty small, I’ll be a little bold.
I think Johan Correa of Central Washington (TSR #24) will crack the top-15 based on his win at the West Regional XC Championships and overall success this season. I think he is a true competitor and will thrive in an elite championship setting.
For the women, I am going to go with Hannah Rhem (TSR #23) placing between 12th and 15th based on her runner-up finish at the Midwest Regional XC Championships. There, she took down elite names like Natalie Graber and Klaudia O’Malley, although in fairness to the Grand Valley State women, national qualification was likely their top priority.
Marissa: This person is not even in our top-25 individual rankings, but she does appear on our TSR "Just Missed" list, so I am going to go with Kate Hedlund from UC-Colorado Springs.
Hedlund has dropped from our rankings due to some unfortunate circumstances where she dropped outside of the top-50 at the RMAC XC Championships. However, from the beginning of the season, Hedlund has placed near or ahead of her teammate, Anna Fauske (TSR #14).
I am willing to bet my whole life savings on Hedlund finishing near Fauske at Saturday's national meet which means somewhere in the top-15.
For the men, I am going to go with Hamza Chahid of Wingate who is also not in our rankings. He ran his first race of the season at the Southeast Regional XC Championships and placed an impressive 2nd overall.
The biggest drawback for Chahid will be his inexperience on the grass, but he has a ton of experience on the national stage from the past track seasons. If he can just replicate the race that he had on the regional stage, then I think he will do just fine on the national stage, even if it will be only his second race of the season, and break the top-25.
Garrett: When it comes to the women, give me Gianna Bomarito.
I refuse to believe that this Sonoma State ace won't be better than 20th place on Saturday. She was undefeated this season until she placed 3rd at at the West Regional XC Championships and truthfully, I struggle to put much emphasis on those races.
And when you remember how dominant Bomarito was at the Griak Invitational (Maroon race), I don't think a top-15 result is out of her reach for this Saturday.
As for the men, I just really, really like Cortland Ross.
The Illinois-Springfield product has been super consistent this season. He has often faced some very challenging fields and has, for the most part, been a factor in all of them. With a current TSR #23 ranking, I'll take the experienced low-stick who is still improving and has proven to be an effective talent on a variety of different stages.
Grace: For the men, I think the Lewis Flyers will place in the top-10, but they will not have an individual in the top-60.
The Flyers' lineup structure is built on having a compact group of solid runners, but they lack potent firepower. I think this course and a large field plays to their strengths -- they’ll be able to finish as one of the better teams despite not having firepower at the front of the race.
All of our other top-ranked teams have at least one runner in the All-American conversation, but Lewis will be relying on the power of pack-running.
For the women, I think there will be less than a three-point difference between the national title winner and the runner-up team.
For most of the season, we’ve had Grand Valley State at TSR #1 and they’ve been the dominant favorite to earn gold this weekend. However, I think Adams State will peak perfectly for the post-season and they are still capable of pulling off an upset if everyone is firing on all cylinders.
Maybe that isn’t the boldest prediction, but I think the race for the national title will be much closer than we originally anticipated.
Marissa: The men of Wingate will make a run at both Colorado Mines and Adams State, falling just short, but topping Grand Valley State to finish 3rd.
Honestly, we have not seen a ton from the Bulldogs this season. However, what we have seen in the past two meets is a team that has a lot of depth. I think they'll sneak up on some of the other teams chasing podium spots.
My other bold prediction is that the Winona State women will reach the podium for the first time, finishing 4th. I think this team can pull it off this year.
Lindsay Cunningham and Kaylee Beyer have been nothing but sensational for the Warriors this season, followed by consistent performances from Sophia Taarud as a key support scorer.
What the team was previously missing was McKenna Taylor closing the gap on Taarud. But since the championship season started, Taylor has gotten better and better with each race. I believe that this squad is ready to make program history this weekend and it is all aligning for them at just the right time.
Garrett: I'll say that the East Central men are going to be a podium team, placing 4th overall.
There is seemingly a ton of raw talent on that roster and if their entire lineup runs their best on the same day, then I don't think a top-four showing is out of the question. The alternative is that the Tigers struggle with inexperience and I'd prefer to go with the more positive scenario.
For the women, I'll go really, really bold: The Tampa Spartans are going to crack the top-10 of the team standings on Saturday.
I don't know why, but I really like this squad. They were two points behind Pittsburg State for the overall win at the Southern Stampede meet, they upset Cedarville at the UAH Chargers XC Invitational and took care of business in the postseason with unsurprising results.
Led by Aspen Gordon and Olivia Harp, the Spartans have a very balanced top-five that lacks any true scoring gaps. They have been fairly consistent this fall and have proven that they can be competitive with top teams. If they simply go out and execute (preferably on the better end of our expectations), then I could see them placing 10th.